Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Religion and Economic Growth: Was Weber Right?

Evidence of falling wages in Catholic cities and rising wages in Protestant cities between 1500 and 1750, during the spread of literacy in the vernacular, is inconsistent with most theoretical models of economic growth. In The Protestant Ethic, Weber suggested an alternative explanation based on culture. Here, a theoretical model confirms that a small change in the subjective cost of cooperating with strangers can generate a profound transformation in trading networks. In explaining urban growth in early-modern Europe, specifications compatible with human-capital versions of the neoclassical model and endogenous-growth theory are rejected in favor of a “small-world” formulation based on the Weber thesis.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Political Influence, Economic Interests and Endogenous Tax Structure in a Computable Equilibrium Framework: with Applicatioon to the United States, 1973 and 1983

A full understanding of public affairs requires the ability to distinguish between the policies that voters would like the government to adopt, and the influence that different voters or group of voters actually exert in the democratic process. We consider the properties of a computable equilibrium model of a competitive political economy in which the economic interests of groups of voters and their effective influence on equilibrium policy outcomes can be explicitly distinguished and computed. The model incorporates an amended version of the GEMTAP tax model, and is calibrated to data for the United States for 1973 and 1983. Emphasis is placed on how the aggregation of GEMTAP households into groups within which economic and political behaviour is assumed homogeneous affects the numerical representation of interests and influence for representative members of each group. Experiments with the model suggest that the changes in both interests and influence are important parts of the story behind the evolution of U.S. tax policy in the decade after 1973.

Standardized Latin and Medieval Economic Growth

Traditional explanations for Western Europe's demographic growth in the High Middle Ages are unable to explain the rise in per-capita income that accompanied observed population changes. Here, we examine the hypothesis that an innovation in information technology changed the optimal structure of contracts and raised the productivity of human capital. We present historical evidence for this thesis, offer a theoretical explanation based on transaction costs, and test the theory's predictions with data on urban demographic growth. We find that the information-technology hypothesis significantly increases the capacity of the neoclassical growth model to explain European economic expansion between 1000 and 1300.

Economic Development under Alternative Trade Regimes

How does openness affect economic development? This question is answered in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, where countries have technological differences that are both sector-neutral and specific to the investment goods sector. Relative to a benchmark case of trade in credit markets only, consider (i) a complete restriction of trade, and (ii) a full liberalization of trade. The first change decreases the cross-sectional dispersion of incomes only slightly, and produces a relatively small welfare loss. The second change, instead, decreases dispersion by a significant amount, and produces a very large welfare gain.

A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates.

Understanding the dynamics of interest rates and the term structure has important implications for issues as diverse as real economic activity, monetary policy, pricing of interest rate derivative securities and public debt financing. Our paper follows a longstanding tradition of using factor models of interest rates but proposes a semi-parametric procedure to model interest rates.

Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development

Poor countries have lower PPP–adjusted investment rates and face higher relative prices of investment goods. It has been suggested that this happens either because these countries have a relatively lower TFP in industries producing capital goods, or because they are subject to greater investment distortions. This paper provides a micro–foundation for the cross–country dispersion in investment distortions. We first document that firms producing capital goods face a higher level of idiosyncratic risk than their counterparts producing consumption goods. In a model of capital accumulation where the protection of investors’ rights is incomplete, this difference in risk induces a wedge between the returns on investment in the two sectors. The wedge is bigger, the poorer the investor protection. In turn, this implies that countries endowed with weaker institutions face higher relative prices of investment goods, invest a lower fraction of their income, and end up being poorer. We find that our mechanism may be quantitatively important.

Factor Analysis of a Large DSGE Model

We study the workings of the factor analysis of high-dimensional data using artificial series generated from a large, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The objective is to use the DSGE model as a laboratory that allow us to shed some light on the practical benefits and limitations of using factor analysis techniques on economic data. We explain in what sense the artificial data can be thought of having a factor structure, study the theoretical and finite sample properties of the principal components estimates of the factor space, investigate the substantive reason(s) for the good performance of di¤usion index forecasts, and assess the quality of the factor analysis of highly dissagregated data. In all our exercises, we explain the precise relationship between the factors and the basic macroeconomic shocks postulated by the model.

On the Individual Optimality of Economic Integration

Ce document est une version antérieure du document "On the Individual Optimality of Economic Integration", nov. 2015 : http://hdl.handle.net/1866/12794

Economic evaluation of benzodiazepines versus cognitive behavioural therapy among older adults with chronic insomnia

L’insomnie, commune auprès de la population gériatrique, est typiquement traitée avec des benzodiazépines qui peuvent augmenter le risque des chutes. La thérapie cognitive-comportementale (TCC) est une intervention non-pharmacologique ayant une efficacité équivalente et aucun effet secondaire. Dans la présente thèse, le coût des benzodiazépines (BZD) sera comparé à celui de la TCC dans le traitement de l’insomnie auprès d’une population âgée, avec et sans considération du coût additionnel engendré par les chutes reliées à la prise des BZD. Un modèle d’arbre décisionnel a été conçu et appliqué selon la perspective du système de santé sur une période d’un an. Les probabilités de chutes, de visites à l’urgence, d’hospitalisation avec et sans fracture de la hanche, les données sur les coûts et sur les utilités ont été recueillies à partir d’une revue de la littérature. Des analyses sur le coût des conséquences, sur le coût-utilité et sur les économies potentielles ont été faites. Des analyses de sensibilité probabilistes et déterministes ont permis de prendre en considération les estimations des données. Le traitement par BZD coûte 30% fois moins cher que TCC si les coûts reliés aux chutes ne sont pas considérés (231$ CAN vs 335$ CAN/personne/année). Lorsque le coût relié aux chutes est pris en compte, la TCC s’avère être l’option la moins chère (177$ CAN d’économie absolue/ personne/année, 1,357$ CAN avec les BZD vs 1,180$ pour la TCC). La TCC a dominé l’utilisation des BZD avec une économie moyenne de 25, 743$ CAN par QALY à cause des chutes moins nombreuses observées avec la TCC. Les résultats des analyses d’économies d’argent suggèrent que si la TCC remplaçait le traitement par BZD, l’économie annuelle directe pour le traitement de l’insomnie serait de 441 millions de dollars CAN avec une économie cumulative de 112 billions de dollars canadiens sur une période de cinq ans. D’après le rapport sensibilité, le traitement par BZD coûte en moyenne 1,305$ CAN, écart type 598$ (étendue : 245-2,625)/personne/année alors qu’il en coûte moyenne 1,129$ CAN, écart type 514$ (étendue : 342-2,526)/personne/année avec la TCC. Les options actuelles de remboursement de traitements pharmacologiques au lieu des traitements non-pharmacologiques pour l’insomnie chez les personnes âgées ne permettent pas d’économie de coûts et ne sont pas recommandables éthiquement dans une perspective du système de santé.

On the individual optimality of economic integration

Which countries find it optimal to form an economic union? We emphasize the risk-sharing benefits of economic integration. Consider an endowment world economy model, where international financial markets are incomplete and contracts not enforceable. A union solves both frictions among member countries. We uncover conditions on initial incomes and net foreign assets of potential union members such that forming a union is welfare-improving over standing alone in the world economy. Consistently with evidence on economic integration, unions in our model occur (i) relatively infrequently, and (ii) emerge more likely among homogeneous countries, and (iii) rich countries.