The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

The Economic Impacts of Tourism in Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil

The tourism spending like other activities has direct and secondary effects on the economy, and presents complex interaction with other activities deserving a special treatment for measuring its contribution to the global result of production and consumption. In this paper, it is used the Money Generation Model to measure the global economic impact of tourism sales in Ouro Preto, this method is not so limited by the data and it is able to produce good approximations to reality. It was not possible to adopt the WTO methodology due to data limitation. The results revealed the real importance of tourism for Ouro Preto, representing up to 10.4% of GDP in 2002, up to 21.8% of tax revenues in 2004, and approximately 11% of the region’s population in 2002 was related to tourism sales. Some actions can be outlined from these results in order to illustrate the current economic reality of the tourism in Ouro Preto. It is also possible to improve the tourist planning accomplished by the local City Hall in a coherent way with the economic results generated by the tourism.

SEASONAL, HABITAT AND SEX-SPECIFIC PATTERNS OF FOOD UTILIZATION BY RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS (Agelaius phoeniceous) IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE

Crop depredation by red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) causes serious economic losses to agricultural crops each year in both Canada and the United States. The concentration of vulnerable, monocultural crops, particularly corn, during periods when large flocks of blackbirds congregate in roosting areas prior to migration has invariably led to heavy feeding pressure (Stone et al., 1972; Wiens and Dyer, 1975; Tyler et al., 1978). Efforts to reduce damage levels by mechanical and chemical dispersal agents have been largely unsuccessful, at least in terms of a long-term solution to the problem. Recently, the lethal control of blackbird populations using surfactants has been proposed. However, the potential repercussions of the removal of substantial numbers of birds from northern breeding areas are virtually unknown (Robertson et al., 1978). Much of the research dealing with the feeding ecology of red-winged blackbirds has been limited to fall and winter periods when large aggregations of birds are actively involved in crop depredation (Goddad, 1969; Williams, 1976; Dolbeer et al., 1978) or pose a potential health hazard (Monroe and Cronholm, 1976). However, what is not known is the degree to which the removal of deleterious weed seed and insect pests cited in several studies (Bird and Smith, 1964; Mott et al., 1972; Robertson et al., 1978) might be of potential value to agriculture. The issue of whether the benefits derived from redwing foraging compensate for the negative aspects associated with crop depredation and health hazards remains largely unresolved. The present study attempted to evaluate the pest status of this species using diet information derived from food habits analysis conducted during the residency of red- winged blackbirds in a northern breeding area. By determining how the feeding ecology of red-winged blackbirds varies on a seasonal basis, among different breeding habitats and between sexes, we hoped to determine more realistically which segments of the population might be responsible for the greatest benefits or detriments and, thereby, more accurately evaluate the economic impact of the species as a whole. To achieve this aim, the study provides an accurate description of the common insects and weed pests utilized by redwings. By determining the relative proportions of those items known to be detrimental, we hoped to illustrate, at least qualitatively, the degree to which redwing foraging is comprised of both beneficial and harmful components.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system Objectives: To compare costs and clinical benefits of three additional therapies to metformin (MF) for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Methods: A discrete event simulation model seas built to estimate the cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life years [QALY)) of saxagliptine as an additional therapy to MF when compared to rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. A budget impact model (BIM) was built to simulate the economic impact of saxagliptine use in the context of the Brazilian private health system. Results: The acquiring medication costs for the hypothetical patient group analyzed in a time frame of three years, were R$ 10,850,185, R$ 14,836,265 and R$ 14,679,099 for saxagliptine, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, respectively. Saxagliptine showed lower costs and greater effectiveness in both comparisons, with projected savings for the first three years of R$ 3,874 and R$ 3,996, respectively. The BIM estimated cumulative savings of R$ 417,958 with the repayment of saxagliptine in three years from the perspective of a health plan with 1,000,000 covered individuals. Conclusion: From the perspective of private paying source, the projection is that adding saxagliptine with MF save costs when compared with the addition of rosiglitazone or pioglitazone in patients with DM2 that have not reached the HbA1c goal with metformin monotherapy. The BIM of including saxagliptine in the reimbursement lists of health plans indicated significant savings on the three-year horizon.

Treatment failure in pneumonia: Impact of antibiotic treatment and cost analysis

The aim of this study was to investigate treatment failure (TF) in hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients with regard to initial antibiotic treatment and economic impact. CAP patients were included in two open, prospective multicentre studies assessing the direct costs for in-patient treatment. Patients received treatment either with moxifloxacin (MFX) or a nonstandardised antibiotic therapy. Any change in antibiotic therapy after >72 h of treatment to a broadened antibiotic spectrum was considered as TF. Overall, 1,236 patients (mean ± SD age 69.6 ± 16.8 yrs, 691 (55.9%) male) were included. TF occurred in 197 (15.9%) subjects and led to longer hospital stay (15.4 ± 7.3 days versus 9.8 ± 4.2 days; p < 0.001) and increased median treatment costs (€2,206 versus €1,284; p<0.001). 596 (48.2%) patients received MFX and witnessed less TF (10.9% versus 20.6%; p < 0.001). After controlling for confounders in multivariate analysis, adjusted risk of TF was clearly reduced in MFX as compared with β-lactam monotherapy (adjusted OR for MFX 0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.68) and was more comparable with a β-lactam plus macrolide combination (BLM) (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.38-1.21). In hospitalised CAP, TF is frequent and leads to prolonged hospital stay and increased treatment costs. Initial treatment with MFX or BLM is a possible strategy to prevent TF, and may thus reduce treatment costs.

Impact of low vision on well-being in 10 European countries

BACKGROUND: Because of the growing life expectancy in developed countries and the exponential increase in vision loss with increasing age, a growing number of elderly persons will eventually suffer from visual impairment and blindness. This paper describes the association between self-reported vision and well-being in individuals aged 50 years and older and their families. METHODS: Using binary logistic regressions on data from the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analysed the association between self-reported corrected vision in general, corrected distance vision and corrected reading vision on 11 variables capturing emotional well-being, future hopes and perspectives, and concentration on daily activities. RESULTS: For 22,486 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 64.23 +/- 10.52 years, lower vision was associated with a highly significant negative impact on all measured aspects of well-being. CONCLUSIONS: These data from a large population base in Europe provide evidence that persons with low vision have a higher probability of concentration problems during reading and entertainment; losing interest and enjoyment in their activities; feeling fatigued, irritable, sad, and tearful; having less hope for the future; and wishing for death. Effective measures of early detection, prevention, rehabilitation, education and research, as well as a holistic view of a patient, could help counter these problems, thereby improving mental and physical health and reducing the economic impact of low vision.

A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Assessment of FDI impact on Thailand's production sectors : implications for investment promotion activities

This paper examines the overall and sectoral economic impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the Thai economy using the economic data from 2005-2013. In assessing the overall economic impact, it is found that FDI has contributed positively to Thailand's economic growth. However, when analyzing the sectoral details, the empirical results indicate that FDI has a varying impact on the productive sectors in Thailand. Out of the 9 sub-sectors covered by this study, 5 sub-sectors (manufacturing, construction, financial, wholesale, retail trade, and agriculture) show strong statistically-significant positive effects of FDI on the relevant sector's value-added output. Based on these findings, it is suggested that policy-makers, including the Board of Investment, should aim to promote FDI with special consideration of the sectoral impact that would enable Thailand's FDI promotion policies to be more productive and beneficial for the Thai economy.

Economic impacts of the Kra Canal : an application of the automatic calculation of sea distances by a GIS

A plan to construct a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand has been proposed many times since the 17th century. The proposed canal would become an alternative route to the over-crowded Straits of Malacca. In this paper, we attempt to utilize a Geographical Information System (GIS) to calculate the realistic distances between ports that would be affected by the Kra Canal and to estimate the economic impact of the canal using a simulation model based on spatial economics. We find that China, India, Japan, and Europe gain the most from the construction of the canal, besides Thailand. On the other hand, the routes through the Straits of Malacca are largely beneficial to Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, besides Singapore. Thus, it is beneficial for all ASEAN member countries that the Kra Canal and the Straits of Malacca coexist and complement one another.

Managing drought economic effects through insurance schemes based on local water availability.

In many arid or semi-arid Mediterranean regions, agriculture is dependent on irrigation. When hydrological drought phenomena occur, farmers suffer from water shortages, incurring important economic losses. Yet, there is not agricultural insurance available for lack of irrigation water. This work attempts to evaluate hydrological drought risk and its economic impact on crop production in order to provide the basis for the design of drought insurance for irrigated arable crops. With this objective a model that relates water availability with expected yields is developed. Crop water requirements are calculated from evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and soil water balance. FAO?s methodology and AquaCrop software have been used to establish the relationship between water allocations and crop yields. The analysis is applied to the irrigation zone ?Riegos de Bardenas?, which is located in the Ebro river basin, northeast Spain, to the main arable crops in the area. Results show the fair premiums of different hydrological drought insurance products. Whole-farm insurance or irrigation district insurance should be preferable to crop specific insurance due to the drought management strategies used by farmers.

A random utility based multiregional input-output approach to estimate the impact of a new highway on the regional distribution of jobs

This paper addresses the economic impact assessment of the construction of a new road on the regional distribution of jobs. The paper summarizes different existing model approaches considered to assess economic impacts through a literature review. Afterwards, we present the development of a comprehensive approach for analyzing the interaction of new transport infrastructure and the economic impact through an integrated model. This model has been applied to the construction of the motorway A-40 in Spain (497 Km.) which runs across three regions without passing though Madrid City. This may in turn lead to the relocation of labor and capital due to the improvement of accessibility of markets or inputs. The result suggests the existence of direct and indirect effects in other regions derived from the improvement of the transportation infrastructure, and confirms the relevance of road freight transport in some regions. We found that the changes in regional employment are substantial for some regions (increasing or decreasing jobs), but a t the same time negligible in other regions. As a result,the approach provides broad guidance to national governments and other transport-related parties about the impacts of this transport policy.

Guidelines for assessing the environmental impact of public mass transportation projects: executive summary.

Transportation Department, Office of Environment and Safety, Washington, D.C.

Guidelines for assessing the environmental impact of public mass transportation projects. Notebook 1: purpose and procedures. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of Environment and Safety, Washington, D.C.

Guidelines for assessing the environmental impact of public mass transportation projects. Notebook 2: social impacts. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of Environment and Safety, Washington, D.C.