Análise de econometria de dois sistemas naturais de tratamento de água residuária na suinocultura

The aim of this work was to develop a detailed econometric analysis to compare a constructed wetland system - combined model, and a waste stabilization pond system - facultative pond, as a function of six different sizes of finishing pig farms and two waste management systems - wet and dry. The constructed wetland system using dried waste management showed the best economic results. This finding is due to the low-cost implementation a year both per animal and per kilogram of meat. This system also required the smallest area for waste treatment. The use of stabilization pond with wet waste management system showed a lower implementation cost a year per animal and per kilogram of meat, but it required large areas. The econometric analysis of both systems of wastewater treatment revealed an economy of scale.

Ex-post evaluation of the employment effects of a preferential trade agreement: methodological issues, illustrated with a reference to Chile

Includes bibliography

Crescimento econômico no Estado de São Paulo: uma análise espacial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Amazônia Legal e o estado de Mato Grosso: dois ensaios sobre o processo de convergência espacial para o desmatamento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Uma análise espacial do crescimento econômico dos municípios paulistas no período de 2000-2010

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo fazer uma análise do crescimento econômico dos municípios paulistas entre os anos de 2000 e 2010 baseando-se, principalmente, no modelo de Glaeser et al. (1995). Essa análise será feita relacionando o crescimento com variáveis socioeconômicas como a renda, infra-estrutura, emprego e educação. Além disso, serão acrescentadas técnicas da econometria espacial para verificar os efeitos da aglomeração e possíveis externalidades provocadas pelo crescimento. Por fim, será feita uma comparação com o trabalho de Vieira (2008) que fez uma análise semelhante dos municípios paulistas para o período de 1980 a 2000

Um modelo para a criminalidade no município de São Paulo em 2001

This work aims to estimate an empirical model for three kinds of crime in Sao Paulo city: homicides, robberies and car thefts. It uses as geographical units the areas belonging to each police districts and takes in account spatial effects among the variables. The results show important differences when we deal with crime against people and crime against property.

Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil: an institutional analysis

The paper shows the advantages and handicaps of implementing an inflation target (IT) regime, from a Post-Keynesian and, thus, an institutional stance. It is Post-Keynesian as long as it does not perceive any benefit in the mainstream split between monetary and fiscal policies. And it is institutional insofar as it assumes that there are several ways of implementing a policy, such that the chosen one is determined by historical factors, as it is illustrated by the Brazilian case. One could even support IT policies if their targets were seen just as “focusing devices” guiding economic policy, notwithstanding other targets, as, in the short run, output growth and employment and, in the long run, technology and human development. Nevertheless, an IT is not necessary, although it can be admitted, mainly if the target is hidden from the public, in order to increase the flexibility of the Central Bank.

Curva de Kuznets ambiental para o Estado de Mato Grosso

Issues concerning deforestation have become a crucial theme in the environmental world debate. In this picture, Mato Grosso State has become an unfavorable example because it represents 36% of the accumulated deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. In order to investigate the relationship between deforestation and income growth, this paper estimates an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for 139 cities of Mato Grosso through spatial econometrics. Using data for the year 2006, we estimate an EKC for the deforestation per capita against income per capita and other variables controlling the spatial effects. The preliminary results indicate that an EKC exists in a reversed U shape, i. e., the income growth reduces environmental effects from the maximum point. However, introducing a cubic term for the income, the economic growth would not reveal any relationship with the deforestation in the Mato Grosso State.

Economic growth and the quality labour market of jobs created: a Brazilian case and some implications to Latin America

An outcome of economic growth is increased employment, but this should not be the only measure to assess a country's labour market, it is also important to verify whether the jobs created are considered good jobs. Thus, this study analyses the Brazilian labour market from 2000 to 2009, in terms of the quantity and quality of jobs generated in this period. To this end, a descriptive analysis was performed, in addition to an evaluation using econometrics and the data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. The results of the research indicated that the Brazilian labour market is growing in terms of its quality.

Bayesian Analysis for Errors in Variables with Changepoint Models

Changepoint regression models have originally been developed in connection with applications in quality control, where a change from the in-control to the out-of-control state has to be detected based on the avaliable random observations. Up to now various changepoint models have been suggested for differents applications like reliability, econometrics or medicine. In many practical situations the covariate cannot be measured precisely and an alternative model are the errors in variable regression models. In this paper we study the regression model with errors in variables with changepoint from a Bayesian approach. From the simulation study we found that the proposed procedure produces estimates suitable for the changepoint and all other model parameters.

Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Analyzing convergence of Agricultural and Rural Areas in the Enlarged EU: The case of Hungary

The fall of the Berlin Wall opened the way for a reform path – the transition process – which accompanied ten former Socialist countries in Central and South Eastern Europe to knock at the EU doors. By the way, at the time of the EU membership several economic and structural weaknesses remained. A tendency towards convergence between the new Member States (NMS) and the EU average income level emerged, together with a spread of inequality at the sub-regional level, mainly driven by the backwardness of the agricultural and rural areas. Several progresses were made in evaluating the policies for rural areas, but a shared definition of rurality is still missing. Numerous indicators were calculated for assessing the effectiveness of the Common Agricultural Policy and Rural Development Policy. Previous analysis on the Central and Eastern European countries found that the characteristics of the most backward areas were insufficiently addressed by the policies enacted; the low data availability and accountability at a sub-regional level, and the deficiencies in institutional planning and implementation represented an obstacle for targeting policies and payments. The next pages aim at providing a basis for understanding the connections between the peculiarities of the transition process, the current development performance of NMS and the EU role, with particular attention to the agricultural and rural areas. Applying a mixed methodological approach (multivariate statistics, non-parametric methods, spatial econometrics), this study contributes to the identification of rural areas and to the analysis of the changes occurred during the EU membership in Hungary, assessing the effect of CAP introduction and its contribution to the convergence of the Hungarian agricultural and rural. The author believes that more targeted – and therefore efficient – policies for agricultural and rural areas require a deeper knowledge of their structural and dynamic characteristics.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.