984 resultados para EQUITY PREMIUM PREDICTION
Resumo:
The contemporary methods for source characterization rely mainly on experiments. These methods produce inaccurate results in the low‐frequency band, where the characteristics are all the more important. Moreover, the experimental methods cannot be used at the design stage. Hence, a numerical technique to obtain the source characteristics is desirable. In this paper, the pressure‐time history and the mass‐flux‐time history obtained by means of the time‐domain analysis have been used, along with the two‐load method to compute the source characteristics. Two new computational methods for obtaining the source characteristics have been described. These are much simpler, and computationally more economical than the complete time‐domain simulation, which makes use of the method of characteristics.
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He propose a new time domain method for efficient representation of the KCG and delineation of its component waves. The method is based on the multipulse Linear prediction (LP) coding which is being widely used in speech processing. The excitation to the LP synthesis filter consists of a few pulses defined by their locations and amplitudes. Based on the amplitudes and their distribution, the pulses are suitably combined to delineate the component waves. Beat to beat correlation in the ECG signal is used in QRS periodicity prediction. The method entails a data compression of 1 in 6. The method reconstructs the signal with an NMSE of less than 5%.
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Prediction of variable bit rate compressed video traffic is critical to dynamic allocation of resources in a network. In this paper, we propose a technique for preprocessing the dataset used for training a video traffic predictor. The technique involves identifying the noisy instances in the data using a fuzzy inference system. We focus on three prediction techniques, namely, linear regression, neural network and support vector regression and analyze their performance on H.264 video traces. Our experimental results reveal that data preprocessing greatly improves the performance of linear regression and neural network, but is not effective on support vector regression.
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Breakout noise from HVAC ducts is important at low frequencies, and the coupling between the acoustic waves and the structural waves plays a critical role in the prediction of the transverse transmission loss. This paper describes the analytical calculation of breakout noise by incorporating three-dimensional effects along with the acoustical and structural wave coupling phenomena. The first step in the breakout noise prediction is to calculate the inside duct pressure field and the normal duct wall vibration by using the solution of the governing differential equations in terms of Green's function. The resultant equations are rearranged in terms of impedance and mobility, which results in a compact matrix formulation. The Green's function selected for the current problem is the cavity Green's function with modification of wave number in the longitudinal direction in order to incorporate the terminal impedance. The second step is to calculate the radiated sound power from the compliant duct walls by means of an ``equivalent unfolded plate'' model. The transverse transmission loss from the duct walls is calculated using the ratio of the incident power due to surface source inside the duct to the acoustic power radiated from the compliant duct walls. Analytical results are validated with the FE-BE numerical models.
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In the present paper, the constitutive model is proposed for cemented soils, in which the cementation component and frictional component are treated separately and then added together to get overall response. The modified Cam clay is used to predict the frictional resistance and an elasto-plastic strain softening model is proposed for the cementation component. The rectangular isotropic yield curve proposed by Vatsala (1995) for the bond component has been modified in order to account for the anisotropy generally observed in the case of natural soft cemented soils. In this paper, the model proposed is used to predict the experimental results of extension tests on the soft cemented soils whereas compression test results are presented elsewhere. The model predictions compare quite satisfactorily with the observed response. A few input parameters are required which are well defined and easily determinable and the model uses associated flow rule.
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This work focuses on the formulation of an asymptotically correct theory for symmetric composite honeycomb sandwich plate structures. In these panels, transverse stresses tremendously influence design. The conventional 2-D finite elements cannot predict the thickness-wise distributions of transverse shear or normal stresses and 3-D displacements. Unfortunately, the use of the more accurate three-dimensional finite elements is computationally prohibitive. The development of the present theory is based on the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM). Its unique features are the identification and utilization of additional small parameters associated with the anisotropy and non-homogeneity of composite sandwich plate structures. These parameters are ratios of smallness of the thickness of both facial layers to that of the core and smallness of 3-D stiffness coefficients of the core to that of the face sheets. Finally, anisotropy in the core and face sheets is addressed by the small parameters within the 3-D stiffness matrices. Numerical results are illustrated for several sample problems. The 3-D responses recovered using VAM-based model are obtained in a much more computationally efficient manner than, and are in agreement with, those of available 3-D elasticity solutions and 3-D FE solutions of MSC NASTRAN. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
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Resistance to therapy limits the effectiveness of drug treatment in many diseases. Drug resistance can be considered as a successful outcome of the bacterial struggle to survive in the hostile environment of a drug-exposed cell. An important mechanism by which bacteria acquire drug resistance is through mutations in the drug target. Drug resistant strains (multi-drug resistant and extensively drug resistant) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis are being identified at alarming rates, increasing the global burden of tuberculosis. An understanding of the nature of mutations in different drug targets and how they achieve resistance is therefore important. An objective of this study is to first decipher sequence as well as structural bases for the observed resistance in known drug resistant mutants and then to predict positions in each target that are more prone to acquiring drug resistant mutations. A curated database containing hundreds of mutations in the 38 drug targets of nine major clinical drugs, associated with resistance is studied here. Mutations have been classified into those that occur in the binding site itself, those that occur in residues interacting with the binding site and those that occur in outer zones. Structural models of the wild type and mutant forms of the target proteins have been analysed to seek explanations for reduction in drug binding. Stability analysis of an entire array of 19 mutations at each of the residues for each target has been computed using structural models. Conservation indices of individual residues, binding sites and whole proteins are computed based on sequence conservation analysis of the target proteins. The analyses lead to insights about which positions in the polypeptide chain have a higher propensity to acquire drug resistant mutations. Thus critical insights can be obtained about the effect of mutations on drug binding, in terms of which amino acid positions and therefore which interactions should not be heavily relied upon, which in turn can be translated into guidelines for modifying the existing drugs as well as for designing new drugs. The methodology can serve as a general framework to study drug resistant mutants in other micro-organisms as well.
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Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with free and open source software (FOSS) - Open Modeller were used to model the probable landslide occurrence points. Environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index and precipitation have been used in modeling. Simulated output of these techniques is validated with the actual landslide occurrence points, which showed 92% (GARP) and 96% (SVM) accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest month and 91% and 94% accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.
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High performance video standards use prediction techniques to achieve high picture quality at low bit rates. The type of prediction decides the bit rates and the image quality. Intra Prediction achieves high video quality with significant reduction in bit rate. This paper presents novel area optimized architecture for Intra prediction of H.264 decoding at HDTV resolution. The architecture has been validated on a Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA based platform and achieved a frame rate of 64 fps. The architecture is based on multi-level memory hierarchy to reduce latency and ensure optimum resources utilization. It removes redundancy by reusing same functional blocks across different modes. The proposed architecture uses only 13% of the total LUTs available on the Xilinx FPGA XC5VLX50T.
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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be a robust tool to model many non-linear hydrological processes. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of ANN in simulating and predicting ground water levels in the uplands of a tropical coastal riparian wetland. The study involves comparison of two network architectures, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) trained under five algorithms namely Levenberg Marquardt algorithm, Resilient Back propagation algorithm, BFGS Quasi Newton algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm, and Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm by simulating the water levels in a well in the study area. The study is analyzed in two cases-one with four inputs to the networks and two with eight inputs to the networks. The two networks-five algorithms in both the cases are compared to determine the best performing combination that could simulate and predict the process satisfactorily. Ad Hoc (Trial and Error) method is followed in optimizing network structure in all cases. On the whole, it is noticed from the results that the Artificial Neural Networks have simulated and predicted the water levels in the well with fair accuracy. This is evident from low values of Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Relative Root Mean Square Error and high values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and Correlation Coefficient (which are taken as the performance measures to calibrate the networks) calculated after the analysis. On comparison of ground water levels predicted with those at the observation well, FFNN trained with Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm taken four inputs has outperformed all other combinations.
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The paper presents a new controller inspired by the human experience based, voluntary body action control (dubbed motor control) learning mechanism. The controller is called Experience Mapping based Prediction Controller (EMPC). EMPC is designed with auto-learning features without the need for the plant model. The core of the controller is formed around the motor action prediction-control mechanism of humans based on past experiential learning with the ability to adapt to environmental changes intelligently. EMPC is utilized for high precision position control of DC motors. The simulation results are presented to show that accurate position control is achieved using EMPC for step and dynamic demands. The performance of EMPC is compared with conventional PD controller and MRAC based position controller under different system conditions. Position Control using EMPC is practically implemented and the results are presented.