Building a Social Accounting Matrix within the ESA95 Framework: Obtaining a Dataset for Applied General Equilibrium Modelling

This research provides a description of the process followed in order to assemble a "Social Accounting Matrix" for Spain corresponding to the year 2000 (SAMSP00). As argued in the paper, this process attempts to reconcile ESA95 conventions with requirements of applied general equilibrium modelling. Particularly, problems related to the level of aggregation of net taxation data, and to the valuation system used for expressing the monetary value of input-output transactions have deserved special attention. Since the adoption of ESA95 conventions, input-output transactions have been preferably valued at basic prices, which impose additional difficulties on modellers interested in computing applied general equilibrium models. This paper addresses these difficulties by developing a procedure that allows SAM-builders to change the valuation system of input-output transactions conveniently. In addition, this procedure produces new data related to net taxation information.

What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

Secular changes of spinal canal dimensions in Western Switzerland: a narrowing epidemic?

STUDY DESIGN: Computed tomography-based anatomical study. OBJECTIVE: To study the secular changes in lumbar spinal canal dimensions. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Development of symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis, among other factors, is related to the dimensions of the bony canal. The canal reaches its adult size early on in life. Several factors, including protein intake, may influence its final dimensions. As with increases in human stature from improvements of socioeconomic conditions, we hypothesized that adult bony canal size has also grown larger in recent generations. METHODS: This study analyzes computed tomographic reconstructions from 184 subjects performed for either trauma (n = 81) or abdominal pathologies (n = 103) and born either between 1940 and 1949 (n = 88) or 1970 and 1979 (n = 96). The cross-sectional area of the bony canal was digitally measured at the level of the pedicle (i.e., at a level not influenced by degenerative changes) for each lumbar vertebra. Intra- and interobserver reliability was assessed. RESULTS: Intra- and interobserver measurement reliability were excellent (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.87) and good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.61), respectively. Contrary to our hypothesis, the 1940-1949 generation patient group exhibited larger lumbar canals at all levels as compared with the 1970-1979 group. Statistically this difference was highly significant (P < 0.001) and particularly pronounced in the trauma subgroup. CONCLUSION: Given that human stature evolution has stabilized and adult height is established during the first 2 years of long bone growth, it is possible that antenatal factors are responsible for this surprising finding. Maternal smoking and age may be possible explanations. This finding may have significant implications. An increasing number of patients may emerge with lumbar spinal stenosis as degenerative changes develop, putting a strain on health resources. Further studies in different population groups and countries will be important to further confirm this trend. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Misconceptions about fructose-containing sugars and their role in the obesity epidemic.

A causal role of fructose intake in the aetiology of the global obesity epidemic has been proposed in recent years. This proposition, however, rests on controversial interpretations of two distinct lines of research. On one hand, in mechanistic intervention studies, detrimental metabolic effects have been observed after excessive isolated fructose intakes in animals and human subjects. On the other hand, food disappearance data indicate that fructose consumption from added sugars has increased over the past decades and paralleled the increase in obesity. Both lines of research are presently insufficient to demonstrate a causal role of fructose in metabolic diseases, however. Most mechanistic intervention studies were performed on subjects fed large amounts of pure fructose, while fructose is ordinarily ingested together with glucose. The use of food disappearance data does not accurately reflect food consumption, and hence cannot be used as evidence of a causal link between fructose intake and obesity. Based on a thorough review of the literature, we demonstrate that fructose, as commonly consumed in mixed carbohydrate sources, does not exert specific metabolic effects that can account for an increase in body weight. Consequently, public health recommendations and policies aiming at reducing fructose consumption only, without additional diet and lifestyle targets, would be disputable and impractical. Although the available evidence indicates that the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is associated with body-weight gain, and it may be that fructose is among the main constituents of these beverages, energy overconsumption is much more important to consider in terms of the obesity epidemic.

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.