Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the applicability of molecular genetic markers to population analyses of scleratinian corals

The abundance of coral reefs worldwide is in decline, and despite the ecological importance of reefs, only a limited number of DNA markers have been identified for scleractinian coral genetic studies. This paper addresses the search for new coral molecular markers and investigates the applicability of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI), the internal transcribed spacer region 1 (ITS1), and the pocilloporin gene to the question of intraspecific variation in the scleractinian coral Pocillopora verrucosa along the southeast African coastline. The COI fragment was 710 bp long and was identical for P. verrucosa (n = 10) and P. damicornis (n = 3). Only two different ITS1 sequences were found (differing by 13 bp insertion), but more importantly, 24% of the sequences were heterogenous indicating that different multiple copies of the sequence exist. Pocilloporin is an intronless gene that was absolutely conserved throughout all P. verrucosa populations (n = 50). Thus, the three DNA regions studied appear unsuitable for the population genetic analyses of P. verrucosa.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Identification of a common hierarchy for tiller emergence, leaf area development and fertility

Most studies of tiller development have not related the physiological and morphological features of each calm to its subsequent fertility. This introduced problems when trying to account for the effects of tillering on yield in crop models. The objective of this study was to detect the most likely early determinants of tiller fertility in sorghum by identifying hierarchies for emergence, fertility and grain number of tillers over a wide range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and dry weight partitioning were quantified weekly for individual tillers and main culms of tillering and uniculm plants grown at one of four densities, from two to 16 plants m(-2). For a given plant in any given density, the same tiller hierarchy applied for emergence of tillers, fertility of the emerged tillers and their subsequent grain number. These results were observed over a range of tiller fertility rates (from 7 to 91%), fertile tiller number per plant at maturity (from 0.2 to 4.7), and tiller contribution to grain yield (from 5 to 78%). Tiller emergence was most probably related to assimilate supply and light quality. Development, fertility and contribution to yield of a specific tiller were highly dependent on growing conditions at the time of tiller emergence, particularly via early leaf area development of the tiller, which affected its subsequent leaf area accumulation. Assimilate availability in the main culm at the time of tiller emergence was the most likely early determinant of subsequent tiller fertility in this study. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in adult kidney transplant recipients

Objectives: The aims of this study were to investigate the population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in adult kidney transplant recipients and to identify factors that explain variability. Methods: Population analysis was performed on retrospective data from 70 patients who received oral tacrolimus twice daily. Morning blood trough concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F), with the use of NONMEM (GloboMax LLC, Hanover, Md). Factors screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, postoperative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, hematocrit fraction, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results. CL/F was greater in patients with abnormally low hematocrit fraction (data from 21 patients only), and it decreased with increasing days of therapy and AST concentrations (P

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative sperm ultrastructure of the Baikalian endemic prosobranch gastropods

Mature euspermatozoan ultrastructure is described for seven species of the rissooidean family Baicaliidae (endemic to Lake Baikal, Russia)-Liobaicalia stiedae, Teratobaikalia ciliata, T. macrostoma, Baicalia carinata, Pseudobaikalia pulla, Maackia bythiniopsis, M. variesculpta, and M. herderiana. For comparison with these species and previously investigated Rissooidea, two species of the Lake Baikal endemic genus Benedictia (B. cf. fragilis and B. baicalensis; Hydrobiidae: Benedictiinae of some authors, Benedictiidae of other authors) in addition to Lithoglyphus naticoides (Hydrobiidae: Lithoglyphinae) and Bythinella austriaca (Hydrobiidae: Bythinellinae) were also investigated. Paraspermatozoa were not observed in any of the species examined, supporting the view that these cells are probably absent in the Rissooidea. In general, the euspermatozoa of all species examined resemble those of many other caenogastropods (basally invaginated acrosomal vesicle, mid-piece with 7-13 helical mitochondria, an annulus, glycogen piece with nine peri-axonemal tracts of granules). However, the presence of a completely flattened acrosomal vesicle and a specialized peri-axonemal membranous sheath (a scroll-like arrangement of 4-6 double membranes) at the termination of the mid-piece, clearly indicates a close relationship between the Baicaliidae and other rissooidean families possessing these features (Bithyniidae, Hydrobiidae, Pyrgulidae, and Stenothyridae). Euspermatozoa of Benedictia, Lithoglyphus, Bythinella, and Pyrgula all have a solid nucleus, which exhibits a short, posterior invagination (housing the centriolar complex and proximal portion of the axoneme). Among the Rissooidea, this form of nucleus is known to occur in the Bithyniidae, Hydrobiidae, Truncatellidae, Pyrgulidae, Iravadiidae, Pomatiopsidae, and Stenothyridae. In contrast, the euspermatozoa of the Baicaliidae all have a long, tubular nucleus, housing not only the centriolar derivative, but also a substantial portion of the axoneme. Among the Rissooidea, a tubular nuclear morphology has previously been seen in the Rissoidae, which could support the view, based on anatomical grounds, that the Baicaliidae may have arisen from a different ancestral source than the Hydrobiidae. However, the two styles of nuclear morphology (short, solid versus long, tubular) occur widely within the Caenogastropoda, and sometimes both within a single family, thereby reducing the phylogenetic importance of nuclear differences within the Rissooidea. More significantly, the occurrence of the highly unusual membranous sheath within the mid-piece region in the Baicaliidae appears to tie this family firmly to the Bithyniidae + Hydrobiidae + Stenothyridae + Pyrgulidae assemblage. Eusperm features of Benedictia spp. strongly resemble those of hydrobiids and bithyniids, and neither support recognition of a distinct family Benedictiidae (at best this is a subfamily of Hydrobiidae) nor any close connection with the hydrobiid subfamily Lithoglyphinae.

A population-based study of the biochemical and clinical expression of the H63D hemochromatosis mutation

Background & Aims: Two major mutations are defined within the hemochromatosis gene, HFE. Although the effects of the C282Y mutation have been well characterized, the effects of the H63D mutation remain unclear. We accessed a well-defined population in Busselton, Australia, and determined the frequency of the H63D mutation and its influence on total body iron stores. Methods: Serum transferrin saturation and ferritin levels were correlated with the H63D mutation in 2531 unrelated white subjects who did not possess the C282Y mutation. Results: Sixty-two subjects (2.1%) were homozygous for the H63D mutation, 711 (23.6%) were heterozygous, and 1758 (58.4%) were wild-type for the H63D mutation. Serum transferrin saturation was significantly increased in male and female H63D homozygotes and heterozygotes compared with wild-types. Serum ferritin levels within each gender were not influenced by H63D genotypes. Elevated transferrin saturation greater than or equal to45% was observed in a greater proportion of male H63D carriers than male wild-types. Male H63D homozygotes (9%) and heterozygotes (3%) were more likely to have both elevated transferrin saturation and elevated ferritin greater than or equal to300 ng/mL than male wild-types (0.7%). Homozygosity for H63D was not associated with the development of clinically significant iron overload. Conclusions: Presence of the H63D mutation results in a significant increase in serum transferrin saturation but does hot result in significant iron overload. In the absence of the C282Y mutation, the H63D mutation is not clinically significant.

Modelling activated sludge flocculation using population balances

Activated sludge flocculation was modelled using population balances. The model followed the dynamics of activated sludge flocculation providing a good approximation of the change in mean floe size with time. Increasing the average velocity gradient decreased the final floe size. The breakage rate coefficient and collision efficiency also varied with the average velocity gradient. A power law relationship was found for the increase in breakage rate coefficient with increasing average velocity gradient. Further investigation will be conducted to determine the relationship between the collision efficiency and particle size to provide a better approximation of dynamic changes in the floe size distribution during flocculation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.