Spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Objective To identify the spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease in Queensland in Australia, using geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial scan statistic (SaTScan). Methods We obtained BFV disease cases, population and statistical local areas boundary data from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively during 1992-2008 for Queensland. A retrospective Poisson-based analysis using SaTScan software and method was conducted in order to identify both purely spatial and space-time BFV disease high-rate clusters. A spatial cluster size of a proportion of the population and a 200km circle radius and varying time windows from 1 month to 12 months were chosen (for the space-time analysis). Results The spatial scan statistic detected a most likely significant purely spatial cluster (including 23 SLAs) and a most likely significant space-time cluster (including 24 SLAs) in approximately the same location. Significant secondary clusters were also identified from both the analyses in several locations. Conclusions This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant BFV disease clusters in Queensland, Australia. The study also demonstrated the relevance and applicability of SaTScan in analysing on-going surveillance data to identify clusters to facilitate the development of effective BFV disease prevention and control strategies in Queensland, Australia.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Systematics and biology of the iconic Australian scribbly gum moths Ogmograptis Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Bucculatricidae) and their unique insect-plant interaction

The larvae of particular Ogmograptis spp. produce distinctive scribbles on some smooth-barked Eucalyptus spp. which are a common feature on many ornamental and forest trees in Australia. However, although they are conspicuous in the environment the systematics and biology of the genus has been poorly studied. This has been addressed through detailed field and laboratory studies of their biology of three species (O. racemosa Horak sp. nov., O. fraxinoides Horak sp. nov., O. scribula Meyrick), in conjunction with a comprehensive taxonomic revision support by a molecular phylogeny utilising the mitochondrial Cox1 and nuclear 18S genes. In brief, eggs are laid in bark depressions and the first instar larvae bore into the bark to the level where the future cork cambium forms (the phellegen). Early instar larvae bore wide, arcing tracks in this layer before forming a tighter zig-zag shaped pattern. The second last instar turns and bores either closely parallel to the initial mine or doubles its width, along the zig-zag shaped mine. The final instar possesses legs and a spinneret (unlike the earlier instars) and feeds exclusively on callus tissue which forms within the zig-zag shaped mine formed by the previous instar, before emerging from the bark to pupate at the base of the tree. The scars of mines them become visible scribble following the shedding of bark. Sequence data confirm the placement of Ogmograptis within the Bucculatricidae, suggest that the larvae responsible for the ‘ghost scribbles’ (unpigmented, raised scars found on smooth-barked eucalypts) are members of the genus Tritymba, and support the morphology-based species groups proposed for Ogmograptis. The formerly monotypic genus Ogmograptis Meyrick is revised and divided into three species groups. Eleven new species are described: Ogmograptis fraxinoides Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis racemosa Horak sp. nov. and Ogmograptis pilularis Horak sp. nov. forming the scribula group with Ogmograptis scribula Meyrick; Ogmograptis maxdayi Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis barloworum Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis paucidentatus Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis rodens Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis bignathifer Horak sp. nov. and Ogmograptis inornatus Horak sp. nov. as the maxdayi group; Ogmograptis bipunctatus Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis pulcher Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis triradiata (Turner) comb. nov. and Ogmograptis centrospila (Turner) comb. nov. as the triradiata group. Ogmograptis notosema (Meyrick) cannot be assigned to a species group as the holotype has not been located. Three unique synapomorphies, all derived from immatures, redefine the family Bucculatricidae, uniting Ogmograptis, Tritymba Meyrick (both Australian) and Leucoedemia Scoble & Scholtz (African) with Bucculatrix Zeller, which is the sister group of the southern hemisphere genera. The systematic history of Ogmograptis and the Bucculatricidae is discussed.

The Future of the World's Forests

Forest regulation is never far from the headlines. The recent COP 18 negotiations held in Doha towards the end of 2012 were criticized by observers for slowing the development of the ‘REDD+’ initiative and for marking the end of ‘Forest Day’, whilst in the last month controversy has arisen following reports that the World Bank’s investment in forestry-related projects has failed to address poverty or benefit local communities. Dr Rowena Maguire’s research focuses on international climate and forest regulation and indigenous and community groups rights and responsibilities in connection with environmental management. Her new book, Global Forest Governance, identifies the fundamental legal principles and governance requirements of Sustainable Forest Management, an introduction to which is provided in her article below.

Future of the Haze Agreement : is the glass half empty or half full?

"In 1997–98, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region suffered an unprecedented health and environmental catastrophe due to choking haze created by a massive forest !re in Indonesia. It is estimated that the total losses from the fire could be US$5–6 billion after taking into account the loss of trees and other natural resources as well as the long-term impact on human health. This unprecedented anthropogenic disaster not only created a severe health and environmental hazard but also raised a question mark about the credibility and effectiveness of the ASEAN regional grouping. Against this background, ASEAN took a number of regional initiatives to try and solve the problem and finally adopted a new treaty for regional cooperation to combat forest fire and haze in 2002. This paper assesses the future success of this agreement from the perspectives of the legal, institutional and geopolitical reality of the region. Since numerous studies have examined state responsibility for transboundary environmental harm under international law and its implications on the ASEAN haze problem, this article will not touch upon that general debate nor the remedies that are possibly available to victim states. Rather, it will focus on the ASEAN regional legal and institutional initiatives to combat the haze pollution and compare them with a similar European regional agreement. Regarding the following analysis, it is important to recognise the uncertainty arising from Indonesia’s status (presently a non-party to the Agreement). A primary indication of the future effectiveness of this agreement can be drawn from an analysis of the principles involved in this agreement, bearing in mind the inherent difficulty of enforcing norms in the international environmental legal system as a whole, and the geopolitical reality of the region."

Rise of the eco warriors

A group of passionate and naïve young people leave their known worlds behind to spend 100 days in the jungles of Borneo. Their mission is to confront one of the great global challenges of our time, saving rainforests and giving hope to endangered orangutans. Their task is enormous and the odds are against them. Jojo, an orphaned baby orangutan, is entrusted in their care and they must find a way to return her to her forest home. To do this, they need to build an orangutan rehabilitation centre and find ways to help the local communities protect their forest. Under the guidance of their mentor Dr Willie Smits, they introduce an innovative satellite monitoring system called Earthwatchers and enlist the help of school students around the world. The system is put to the test when the bulldozers move in and threaten the future of a nearby community living in a traditional longhouse. This is a story about what it takes it be an eco-warrior, an individual willing to step up and take action to avert a global catastrophe taking place before our eyes. The eco-warriors represent a new generation, ready to face what is happening on our planet and willing to do something, no matter how small, to build a more humane and balanced world. For them, every individual matters, every action counts. - Written by Cathy Henkel

Murray : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Murray River is the boundary between NSW and Victoria. The river both defines boundaries and unites them with the waters that sustain townships, irrigation and the floodplain forests, including the 70 000ha of the iconic Barmah and Millewa Forest. The river and its floodplain are the traditional lands of the Yorta Yorta and Bangerang people. The Murray is a very different river to the one the Yorta Yorta and Bangerang peoples once knew and fished...

Status of the world's remaining closed forests : an assessment using satellite data and policy options

Historically, it appears that some of the WRCF have survived because i) they lack sufficient quantity of commercially valuable species; ii) they are located in remote or inaccessible areas; or iii) they have been protected as national parks and sanctuaries. Forests will be protected when people who are deciding the fate of forests conclude than the conservation of forests is more beneficial, e.g. generates higher incomes or has cultural or social values, than their clearance. If this is not the case, forests will continue to be cleared and converted. In the future, the WRCF may be protected only by focused attention. The future policy options may include strategies for strong protection measures, the raising of public awareness about the value of forests, and concerted actions for reducing pressure on forest lands by providing alternatives to forest exploitation to meet the growing demands of forest products. Many areas with low population densities offer an opportunity for conservation if appropriate steps are taken now by the national governments and international community. This opportunity must be founded upon the increased public and government awareness that forests have vast importance to the welfare of humans and ecosystems' services such as biodiversity, watershed protection, and carbon balance. Also paramount to this opportunity is the increased scientific understanding of forest dynamics and technical capability to install global observation and assessment systems. High-resolution satellite data such as Landsat 7 and other technologically advanced satellite programs will provide unprecedented monitoring options for governing authorities. Technological innovation can contribute to the way forests are protected. The use of satellite imagery for regular monitoring and Internet for information dissemination provide effective tools for raising worldwide awareness about the significance of forests and intrinsic value of nature.

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin

Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). However, knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006, a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan, to quantify and compare emissions of N2O and CH4 in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton, winter wheat and rice crops, a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems, average N2O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with highest N2O emissions in the cotton fields, covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission), used to determine the fertilizer-induced N2O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied, ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N2O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N2O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N2O emissions over the entire study period (30 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1), whereas only negligible fluxes of N2O (<2 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH4 fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH4 m−2 day−1 and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH4 ha−1. The global warming potential (GWP) of the N2O and CH4 fluxes was highest under rice and cotton, with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO2 eq. ha−1. The biennial cotton–wheat–rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 yr−1. The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations, especially on less profitable, marginal lands.

Wilds of the Canadian Rockies

A travel article about touring in the Rockies, Alberta. MORAINE Lake, held up by a crown of mountains near the small town of Lake Louise, is opal blue. You'd need a precious stone to cut the surface. And even on a hot morning in August, there are plenty around: diamonds of snow decorate the mountain tops and, in their reflections, slice the lake with white triangles. We are at the start of a track that climbs from the lake to Mt Temple, the tallest mountain in the area and two or three hours' walk away. When the track zigzags back, we glimpse the lake through gaps in the conifer forest...

A comparison of the performance of a brand of broad-band and several brands of narrow-band bat detectors in two different habitat types.

The use of bat detectors to monitor bat activity is common. Although several papers have compared the performance of different brands, none have dealt with the effect of different habitats nor have they compared narrow- and broad-band detectors. In this study the performance of four brands of ultrasonic bat detector, including three narrowband and one broad-band model, were compared for their ability to detect a 40 kHz continuous sound of variable amplitude along 100 metre transects. Transects were laid out in two contrasting bat habitat types: grassland and forest. Results showed that the different brands of detector differed in their ability to detect the source in terms of maximum and minimum detectable distance of the source. The rate of sound degradation with distance as measured by each brand was also different. Significant differences were also found in the performance of different brands in open grassland versus deep forest. No significant differences were found within any brand of detector. Though not as sensitive as narrow-band detectors, broad-band models hold an advantage in their ability to identify species where several species are found sympatrically.

Now we can “see the forest and the trees too” but there are risks : Camera trapping and privacy law in Australia

The use of camera traps in wildlife management is an increasingly common practice. A phenomenon which is also becoming more common is for such camera traps to unintentionally film individuals engaged in a variety of activities, ranging from the innocent to the nefarious and including lewd or potentially embarrassing behaviour. It is therefore possible for the use of camera traps to accidentally encroach upon the privacy rights of persons who venture into the area of surveillance. In this chapter we describe the legal framework of privacy in Australia and discuss the potential risk of this sleeping tiger for users of camera traps. We also present the results of a survey of camera trap users to assess the frequency of such unintended captures and the nature of activity being filmed before discussing the practical implications of these laws for camera traps users in this country and make recommendations.

Environmental context for late Holocene human occupation of the South Wellesley Archipelago, Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia

A 2400 year record of environmental change is reported from a wetland on Bentinck Island in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. Three phases of wetland development are identified, with a protected coastal setting from ca. 2400 to 500 years ago, transitioning into an estuarine mangrove forest from ca. 500 years ago to the 1940s, and finally to a freshwater swamp over the past +60 years. This sequence reflects the influence of falling sea-levels, development of a coastal dune barrier system, prograding shorelines, and an extreme storm (cyclone) event. In addition, there is clear evidence of the impacts that human abandonment and resettlement have on the island's fire regimes and vegetation. A dramatic increase in burning and vegetation thickening was observed after the cessation of traditional Indigenous Kaiadilt fire management practices in the 1940s, and was then reversed when people returned to the island in the 1980s. In terms of the longer context for human occupation of the South Wellesley Archipelago, it is apparent that the mangrove phase provided a stable and productive environment that was conducive for human settlement of this region over the past 1000 years.