The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from Earth Radiation Budget data

One of the major uncertainties in the ability to predict future climate change, and hence its impacts, is the lack of knowledge of the earth's climate sensitivity. Here, data are combined from the 1985-96 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) with surface temperature change information and estimates of radiative forcing to diagnose the climate sensitivity. Importantly, the estimate is completely independent of climate model results. A climate feedback parameter of 2.3 +/- 1.4 W m(-2) K-1 is found. This corresponds to a 1.0-4.1-K range for the equilibrium warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide (assuming Gaussian errors in observable parameters, which is approximately equivalent to a uniform "prior" in feedback parameter). The uncertainty range is due to a combination of the short time period for the analysis as well as uncertainties in the surface temperature time series and radiative forcing time series, mostly the former. Radiative forcings may not all be fully accounted for; however, all argument is presented that the estimate of climate sensitivity is still likely to be representative of longer-term climate change. The methodology can be used to 1) retrieve shortwave and longwave components of climate feedback and 2) suggest clear-sky and cloud feedback terms. There is preliminary evidence of a neutral or even negative longwave feedback in the observations, suggesting that current climate models may not be representing some processes correctly if they give a net positive longwave feedback.

Overview: oxidant and particle photochemical processes above a south-east Asian tropical rain forest (the OP3 project); introduction, rationale, location, characteristics and tools

In April–July 2008, intensive measurements were made of atmospheric composition and chemistry in Sabah, Malaysia, as part of the "Oxidant and particle photochemical processes above a South-East Asian tropical rainforest" (OP3) project. Fluxes and concentrations of trace gases and particles were made from and above the rainforest canopy at the Bukit Atur Global Atmosphere Watch station and at the nearby Sabahmas oil palm plantation, using both ground-based and airborne measurements. Here, the measurement and modelling strategies used, the characteristics of the sites and an overview of data obtained are described. Composition measurements show that the rainforest site was not significantly impacted by anthropogenic pollution, and this is confirmed by satellite retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. The dominant modulators of atmospheric chemistry at the rainforest site were therefore emissions of BVOCs and soil emissions of reactive nitrogen oxides. At the observed BVOC:NOx volume mixing ratio (~100 pptv/pptv), current chemical models suggest that daytime maximum OH concentrations should be ca. 105 radicals cm−3, but observed OH concentrations were an order of magnitude greater than this. We confirm, therefore, previous measurements that suggest that an unexplained source of OH must exist above tropical rainforest and we continue to interrogate the data to find explanations for this.

Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects

Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.

Extinction processes in hotspots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results: Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion: The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Inference on microsatellite mutation processes in the invasive mite, Varroa destructor, using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite of the Eastern honeybee Apis cerana. Fifty years ago, two distinct evolutionary lineages (Korean and Japanese) invaded the Western honeybee Apis mellifera. This haplo-diploid parasite species reproduces mainly through brother sister matings, a system which largely favors the fixation of new mutations. In a worldwide sample of 225 individuals from 21 locations collected on Western honeybees and analyzed at 19 microsatellite loci, a series of de novo mutations was observed. Using historical data concerning the invasion, this original biological system has been exploited to compare three mutation models with allele size constraints for microsatellite markers: stepwise (SMM) and generalized (GSM) mutation models, and a model with mutation rate increasing exponentially with microsatellite length (ESM). Posterior probabilities of the three models have been estimated for each locus individually using reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The relative support of each model varies widely among loci, but the GSM is the only model that always receives at least 9% support, whatever the locus. The analysis also provides robust estimates of mutation parameters for each locus and of the divergence time of the two invasive lineages (67,000 generations with a 90% credibility interval of 35,000-174,000). With an average of 10 generations per year, this divergence time fits with the last post-glacial Korea Japan land separation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cell cycle perturbations induced by infection with the coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus and their effect on virus replication

In eukaryotic cells, cell growth and division occur in a stepwise, orderly fashion described by a process known as the cell cycle. The relationship between positive-strand RNA viruses and the cell cycle and the concomitant effects on virus replication are not clearly understood. We have shown that infection of asynchronously replicating and synchronized replicating cells with the avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), a positive-strand RNA virus, resulted in the accumulation of infected cells in the G(2)/M phase of the cell cycle. Analysis of various cell cycle-regulatory proteins and cellular morphology indicated that there was a down-regulation of cyclins D1 and D2 (G(2) regulatory cyclins) and that a proportion of virus-infected cells underwent aberrant cytokinesis, in which the cells underwent nuclear, but not cytoplasmic, division. We assessed the impact of the perturbations on the cell cycle for virus-infected cells and found that IBV-infected G(2)/M-phase-synchronized cells exhibited increased viral protein production when released from the block when compared to cells synchronized in the Go phase or asynchronously replicating cells. Our data suggested that IBV induces a G(2)/M phase arrest in infected cells to promote favorable conditions for viral replication.

Extinction processes in hot spots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

The structure of interrupted human AC microsatellites

Microsatellite lengths change over evolutionary time through a process of replication slippage. A recently proposed model of this process holds that the expansionary tendencies of slippage mutation are balanced by point mutations breaking longer microsatellites into smaller units and that this process gives rise to the observed frequency distributions of uninterrupted microsatellite lengths. We refer to this as the slippage/point-mutation theory. Here we derive the theory's predictions for interrupted microsatellites comprising regions of perfect repeats, labeled segments, separated by dinucleotide interruptions containing point mutations. These predictions are tested by reference to the frequency distributions of segments of AC microsatellite in the human genome, and several predictions are shown not to be supported by the data, as follows. The estimated slippage rates are relatively low for the first four repeats, and then rise initially linearly with length, in accordance with previous work. However, contrary to expectation and the experimental evidence, the inferred slippage rates decline in segments above 10 repeats. Point mutation rates are also found to be higher within microsatellites than elsewhere. The theory provides an excellent fit to the frequency distribution of peripheral segment lengths but fails to explain why internal segments are shorter. Furthermore, there are fewer microsatellites with many segments than predicted. The frequencies of interrupted microsatellites decline geometrically with microsatellite size measured in number of segments, so that for each additional segment, the number of microsatellites is 33.6% less. Overall we conclude that the detailed structure of interrupted microsatellites cannot be reconciled with the existing slippage/point-mutation theory of microsatellite evolution, and we suggest that microsatellites are stabilized by processes acting on interior rather than on peripheral segments.

QSAR studies of multidentate nitrogen ligands used in lanthanide and actinide extraction processes

Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) have been developed to optimise the choice of nitrogen heterocyclic molecules that can be used to separate the minor actinides such as americium(III) from europium(III) in the aqueous PUREX raffinate of nuclear waste. Experimental data on distribution coefficients and separation factors (SFs) for 47 such ligands have been obtained and show SF values ranging from 0.61 to 100. The ligands were divided into a training set of 36 molecules to develop the QSAR and a test set of 11 molecules to validate the QSAR. Over 1500 molecular descriptors were calculated for each heterocycle and the Genetic Algorithm was used to select the most appropriate for use in multiple regression equations. Equations were developed fitting the separation factors to 6-8 molecular descriptors which gave r(2) values of >0.8 for the training set and values of >0.7 for the test set, thus showing good predictive quality. The descriptors used in the equations were primarily electronic and steric. These equations can be used to predict the separation factors of nitrogen heterocycles not yet synthesised and/or tested and hence obtain the most efficient ligands for lanthanide and actinide separation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Student-teachers' perspectives on positive and negative social processes in schools

In recent years, the Standards for Qualified Teacher Status in England have placed new emphasis on student-teachers' ability to become integrated into the 'corporate life of the school' and to work with other professionals. Little research, however, has been carried out into how student-teachers perceive the social processes and interactions that are central to such integration during their initial teacher education school placements. This study aims to shed light on these perceptions. The data, gathered from 23 student-teachers through interviews and reflective writing, illustrate the extent to which the participants perceived such social processes as supporting or obstructing their development as teachers. Signals of inclusion, the degree of match or mismatch in students' and school colleagues' role expectations, and the social awareness of both school and student-teacher emerged as crucial factors in this respect. The student-teachers' accounts show their social interactions with school staff to be meaningful in developing their 'teacher self' and to be profoundly emotionally charged. The implications for mentor and student-teacher role preparation are discussed in this article.

Predicting fault inflow in iterative software development processes: an industrial evaluation

This paper addresses the need for accurate predictions on the fault inflow, i.e. the number of faults found in the consecutive project weeks, in highly iterative processes. In such processes, in contrast to waterfall-like processes, fault repair and development of new features run almost in parallel. Given accurate predictions on fault inflow, managers could dynamically re-allocate resources between these different tasks in a more adequate way. Furthermore, managers could react with process improvements when the expected fault inflow is higher than desired. This study suggests software reliability growth models (SRGMs) for predicting fault inflow. Originally developed for traditional processes, the performance of these models in highly iterative processes is investigated. Additionally, a simple linear model is developed and compared to the SRGMs. The paper provides results from applying these models on fault data from three different industrial projects. One of the key findings of this study is that some SRGMs are applicable for predicting fault inflow in highly iterative processes. Moreover, the results show that the simple linear model represents a valid alternative to the SRGMs, as it provides reasonably accurate predictions and performs better in many cases.

Knowledge transfer processes in PFI/PPP: critical success factors

Successful knowledge transfer is an important process which requires continuous improvement in today’s knowledge-intensive economy. However, improving knowledge transfer processes represents a challenge for construction practitioners due to the complexity of knowledge acquisition, codification and sharing. Although knowledge transfer is context based, understanding the critical success factors can lead to improvements in the transfer process. This paper seeks to identify and evaluate the most significant critical factors for improving knowledge transfer processes in Public Private Partnerships/Private Finance Initiatives (PPP/PFI) projects. Drawing upon a questionnaire survey of 52 construction firms located in the UK, data is analysed using Severity Index (SI) and Coefficient of Variation (COV), to examine and identify these factors in PPP/PFI schemes. The findings suggest that a supportive leadership, participation/commitment from the relevant parties, and good communication between the relevant parties are crucial to improving knowledge transfer processes in PFI schemes. Practitioners, managers and researchers can use the findings to efficiently design performance measures for analysing and improving knowledge transfer processes.

Neurofuzzy control using Kalman filtering state feedback with coloured noise for unknown non-linear processes

This paper presents a controller design scheme for a priori unknown non-linear dynamical processes that are identified via an operating point neurofuzzy system from process data. Based on a neurofuzzy design and model construction algorithm (NeuDec) for a non-linear dynamical process, a neurofuzzy state-space model of controllable form is initially constructed. The control scheme based on closed-loop pole assignment is then utilized to ensure the time invariance and linearization of the state equations so that the system stability can be guaranteed under some mild assumptions, even in the presence of modelling error. The proposed approach requires a known state vector for the application of pole assignment state feedback. For this purpose, a generalized Kalman filtering algorithm with coloured noise is developed on the basis of the neurofuzzy state-space model to obtain an optimal state vector estimation. The derived controller is applied in typical output tracking problems by minimizing the tracking error. Simulation examples are included to demonstrate the operation and effectiveness of the new approach.