Predicting triage waiting time in maternity emergency care by means of data mining

Healthcare organizations often benefit from information technologies as well as embedded decision support systems, which improve the quality of services and help preventing complications and adverse events. In Centro Materno Infantil do Norte (CMIN), the maternal and perinatal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP), an intelligent pre-triage system is implemented, aiming to prioritize patients in need of gynaecology and obstetrics care in two classes: urgent and consultation. The system is designed to evade emergency problems such as incorrect triage outcomes and extensive triage waiting times. The current study intends to improve the triage system, and therefore, optimize the patient workflow through the emergency room, by predicting the triage waiting time comprised between the patient triage and their medical admission. For this purpose, data mining (DM) techniques are induced in selected information provided by the information technologies implemented in CMIN. The DM models achieved accuracy values of approximately 94% with a five range target distribution, which not only allow obtaining confident prediction models, but also identify the variables that stand as direct inducers to the triage waiting times.

Predicting pre-triage waiting time in a maternity emergency room through data mining

An unsuitable patient flow as well as prolonged waiting lists in the emergency room of a maternity unit, regarding gynecology and obstetrics care, can affect the mother and child’s health, leading to adverse events and consequences regarding their safety and satisfaction. Predicting the patients’ waiting time in the emergency room is a means to avoid this problem. This study aims to predict the pre-triage waiting time in the emergency care of gynecology and obstetrics of Centro Materno Infantil do Norte (CMIN), the maternal and perinatal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto, situated in the north of Portugal. Data mining techniques were induced using information collected from the information systems and technologies available in CMIN. The models developed presented good results reaching accuracy and specificity values of approximately 74% and 94%, respectively. Additionally, the number of patients and triage professionals working in the emergency room, as well as some temporal variables were identified as direct enhancers to the pre-triage waiting time. The imp lementation of the attained knowledge in the decision support system and business intelligence platform, deployed in CMIN, leads to the optimization of the patient flow through the emergency room and improving the quality of services.

In-line rheo-optical microstructural characterization of complex polymer systems

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos.

Vapor - liquid equilibrium of systems containing perfluoromethyl-cyclohexane and hydrocarbons

Vapor - liquid equilibrium data for the binary systems: Perfluoromethylcyclohexane + n-Hexane and Perfluoromethylcyclohexane + 1-Hexene were determined at 93.3 KPa and 328.15 K. The vapor pressure for the pure components were also measured to calculate the Antoine constants. The data were correlated by using the Van-Laar, Margules, Wilson, NRTL and UNIQUAC equations. UNIFAC group-contribution parameters between CH, and CF,, and CH,=CH and CF, were also calculated.

Sistemas de Tipos para Verificación de Programas Concurrentes. Type Systems for Concurrent Programs Verification.

La programación concurrente es una tarea difícil aún para los más experimentados programadores. Las investigaciones en concurrencia han dado como resultado una gran cantidad de mecanismos y herramientas para resolver problemas de condiciones de carrera de datos y deadlocks, problemas que surgen por el mal uso de los mecanismos de sincronización. La verificación de propiedades interesantes de programas concurrentes presenta dificultades extras a los programas secuenciales debido al no-determinismo de su ejecución, lo cual resulta en una explosión en el número de posibles estados de programa, haciendo casi imposible un tratamiento manual o aún con la ayuda de computadoras. Algunos enfoques se basan en la creación de lenguajes de programación con construcciones con un alto nivel de abstración para expresar concurrencia y sincronización. Otros enfoques tratan de desarrollar técnicas y métodos de razonamiento para demostrar propiedades, algunos usan demostradores de teoremas generales, model-checking o algortimos específicos sobre un determinado sistema de tipos. Los enfoques basados en análisis estático liviano utilizan técnicas como interpretación abstracta para detectar ciertos tipos de errores, de una manera conservativa. Estas técnicas generalmente escalan lo suficiente para aplicarse en grandes proyectos de software pero los tipos de errores que pueden detectar es limitada. Algunas propiedades interesantes están relacionadas a condiciones de carrera y deadlocks, mientras que otros están interesados en problemas relacionados con la seguridad de los sistemas, como confidencialidad e integridad de datos. Los principales objetivos de esta propuesta es identificar algunas propiedades de interés a verificar en sistemas concurrentes y desarrollar técnicas y herramientas para realizar la verificación en forma automática. Para lograr estos objetivos, se pondrá énfasis en el estudio y desarrollo de sistemas de tipos como tipos dependientes, sistema de tipos y efectos, y tipos de efectos sensibles al flujo de datos y control. Estos sistemas de tipos se aplicarán a algunos modelos de programación concurrente como por ejemplo, en Simple Concurrent Object-Oriented Programming (SCOOP) y Java. Además se abordarán propiedades de seguridad usando sistemas de tipos específicos. Concurrent programming has remained a dificult task even for very experienced programmers. Concurrency research has provided a rich set of tools and mechanisms for dealing with data races and deadlocks that arise of incorrect use of synchronization. Verification of most interesting properties of concurrent programs is a very dificult task due to intrinsic non-deterministic nature of concurrency, resulting in a state explosion which make it almost imposible to be manually treat and it is a serious challenge to do that even with help of computers. Some approaches attempts create programming languages with higher levels of abstraction for expressing concurrency and synchronization. Other approaches try to develop reasoning methods to prove properties, either using general theorem provers, model-checking or specific algorithms on some type systems. The light-weight static analysis approach apply techniques like abstract interpretation to find certain kind of bugs in a conservative way. This techniques scale well to be applied in large software projects but the kind of bugs they may find are limited. Some interesting properties are related to data races and deadlocks, while others are interested in some security problems like confidentiality and integrity of data. The main goals of this proposal is to identify some interesting properties to verify in concurrent systems and develop techniques and tools to do full automatic verification. The main approach will be the application of type systems, as dependent types, type and effect systems, and flow-efect types. Those type systems will be applied to some models for concurrent programming as Simple Concurrent Object-Oriented Programming (SCOOP) and Java. Other goals include the analysis of security properties also using specific type systems.

Electroquímica de sustancias de interés en los sistemas agroalimentario y de sanidad animal. Desarrollo de biosensores electroquímicos. Aplicaciones analíticas.Electrochemistry of substances of interest in agroalimentary and animal health systems. Development of electrochemical biosensors. Analytical applications.

Se estudiarán los mecanismos de reacción electroquímica de las micotoxinas (metabolitos tóxicos generados por hongos) citrinina (CIT), patulina (PAT) y moniliformina (MON), de los antioxidantes naturales alfa, beta, gama y delta tocoferoles, de los flavonoides fisetina (FIS), morina (MOR), luteolina (LUT), rutina (RUT), buteina (BUT), naringenina (NAR) y miricetina (MIR) y de las hormonas esteroides estradiol (EDIOL), estrona (EONA) y estriol (ETRIOL). Por otra parte, se implementarán técnicas electroanalíticas para la detección y cuantificación de estos sustratos en muestras de matrices naturales que los contengan. Se realizará el diseño y caracterización de biosensores enzimáticos a partir de peroxidasas y/o fosfatasa alcalina para la determinación de la micotoxina CIT y de los flavonoides y, por otro, de inmunosensores para las micotoxinas ocratoxina A (OTA) y PAT y hormonas. Para el anclaje de enzimas y/o anticuerpos, se estudiarán las propiedades de electrodos modificados por monocapas autoensambladas, nanotubos de carbono y partículas magnéticas. Se usarán las técnicas de voltamperometría cíclica, de onda cuadrada y de redisolución con acumulación adsortiva, espectroscopías de impedancia electroquímica, electrólisis a potencial controlado, uv-vis e IR, microbalanza de cristal de cuarzo y microscopías de alta resolución (SEM, TEM, AFM). La importancia de este proyecto apunta a la obtención de nuevos datos electroquímicos de los sustratos indicados y conocimientos relacionados con la aplicación de electrodos modificados en la preparación de biosensores y en el desarrollo de técnicas alternativas para la determinación de los analitos mencionados precedentemente. Electrochemical reaction mechanisms of mycotoxins (toxic metabolites generated by fungi) citrinin (CIT), Patulin (PAT) and moniliformin (MON), natural antioxidants alpha, beta, gamma and delta tocopherols, flavonoids fisetin (FIS), morin (MOR), luteolin (LUT), rutin (RUT), butein (BUT), naringenin (NAR), miricetin (MIR) and steroid hormones estradiol (EDIOL), estrone (EONA) and estriole (ETRIOL) will be explored. On the other hand, electroanalytical techniques for the detection and quantification of these substrates in samples of natural matrices will be implemented. The design and characterization of enzymatic biosensors from peroxidases and/or from alkaline phosphatase for the determination of CIT and flavonoids, and also of inmunosensors for ochratoxin A (OTA) and PAT and hormones will be performed. For the anchor of enzymes and/or antibody, properties of electrodes modified by self assembled monolayers, carbon nanotubes and magnetic particles will be explored. Cyclic, square wave and adsorptive stripping voltammetries, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, controlled potential electrolysis, uv-vis and IR, quartz crystal microbalance and high-resolution microcopies (SEM, TEM, AFM) will be used. The importance of this project is aimed at obtaining new electrochemical data for the indicated substrates and knowledge on the application of modified electrodes in preparation of biosensors and in the development of alternative techniques for the determination of the above-mentioned analytes.

Development of a data acquisition system to characterise sustainable energy technologies and to support Web-Based learning (DAQ-WBL)

Driven by concerns about rising energy costs, security of supply and climate change a new wave of Sustainable Energy Technologies (SET’s) have been embraced by the Irish consumer. Such systems as solar collectors, heat pumps and biomass boilers have become common due to government backed financial incentives and revisions of the building regulations. However, there is a deficit of knowledge and understanding of how these technologies operate and perform under Ireland’s maritime climate. This AQ-WBL project was designed to address both these needs by developing a Data Acquisition (DAQ) system to monitor the performance of such technologies and a web-based learning environment to disseminate performance characteristics and supplementary information about these systems. A DAQ system consisting of 108 sensors was developed as part of Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology’s (GMIT’s) Centre for the Integration of Sustainable EnergyTechnologies (CiSET) in an effort to benchmark the performance of solar thermal collectors and Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP’s) under Irish maritime climate, research new methods of integrating these systems within the built environment and raise awareness of SET’s. It has operated reliably for over 2 years and has acquired over 25 million data points. Raising awareness of these SET’s is carried out through the dissemination of the performance data through an online learning environment. A learning environment was created to provide different user groups with a basic understanding of a SET’s with the support of performance data, through a novel 5 step learning process and two examples were developed for the solar thermal collectors and the weather station which can be viewed at http://www.kdp 1 .aquaculture.ie/index.aspx. This online learning environment has been demonstrated to and well received by different groups of GMIT’s undergraduate students and plans have been made to develop it further to support education, awareness, research and regional development.

Computer integrated testing for the transport refrigeration systems industry.

This is a study of a state of the art implementation of a new computer integrated testing (CIT) facility within a company that designs and manufactures transport refrigeration systems. The aim was to use state of the art hardware, software and planning procedures in the design and implementation of three CIT systems. Typical CIT system components include data acquisition (DAQ) equipment, application and analysis software, communication devices, computer-based instrumentation and computer technology. It is shown that the introduction of computer technology into the area of testing can have a major effect on such issues as efficiency, flexibility, data accuracy, test quality, data integrity and much more. Findings reaffirm how the overall area of computer integration continues to benefit any organisation, but with more recent advances in computer technology, communication methods and software capabilities, less expensive more sophisticated test solutions are now possible. This allows more organisations to benefit from the many advantages associated with CIT. Examples of computer integration test set-ups and the benefits associated with computer integration have been discussed.

A nutrient balance model for typical Irish farming systems

The twin objectives of the work described were to construct nutrient balance models (NBM) for a range of Irish animal production systems and to evaluate their potential as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes. The NBM has three components. The first is the intake of nutrients in the animal's diet. The second is retention or the nutrients the animal retains for the production of milk, meat or eggs. The third is the balance or the difference between the nutrient intake and retention. Data on the intake levels and their nutrient value for dairy cows, beef cattle, pigs and poultry systems were assembled. Literature searches and interviews with National experts were the primary sources of information. NBMs were then constructed for each production system. Summary tables of the nutrient values for the common diet constituents used in Irish animal production systems, the nutrient composition of the animal products and the NBMs (nutrient intake, retention and excretion) for a range of production systems were assembled. These represent the first comprehensive data set of this type for Irish animal production systems. There was generally good agreement between the derived NBMs values and those published in the literature. The NBMs were validated on a number of farms. Data on animal numbers, fertiliser use, concentrates inputs and production output were recorded on seven farms. Using the data a nutrient input/output balance was constructed for each farm. This was compared with the NBM estimate of the farm nutrient balance. The results showed good agreement between the measured balance and the NBM estimate particularly for the pig and poultry farms. However, the validation emphasised the inherent risks associated with NBMs. The average values used for feed intake and production parameters in the NEMs may result in the under or over estimate of actual nutrient balances on individual farms where these variables are substantially different. On the grassland farms there was a poor correlation between the input/output estimate and the NBM. This possibly results from the omission of the soil's contribution to the nutrient balance. However, the results indicate that the NBMs developed are a potentially useful tool for estimating nutrient balances. They also will serve to highlight the significant fraction of the nutrient inputs into farming systems that are retained on the farm. The potential of the NBM as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes was evaluated on two farms. Feed intake and composition, animal production, slurry production was monitored during the indoor winter feeding period. Slurry samples were taken for analysis. The appropriates NBMs were used to estimate the nutrient balance for each farm. The nutrient content of the slurry produced was calculated. There was a good agreement between the NBM estimate and the measured values. This preliminary evaluation suggests that the NBM has a potential to provide the farmer with a simple means of estimating the nutrient value of his slurry.

Knowledge, networks of cities and growth in regional urban systems

The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of different kinds of knowledge and external economies on urban growth in an intraregional context. The main hypothesis is that knowledge leads to growth, and that this knowledge is related to the existence of agglomeration and network externalities in cities. We develop a three-tage methodology: first, we measure the amount and growth of knowledge in cities using the OCDE (2003) classification and employment data; second, we identify the spatial structure of the area of analysis (networks of cities); third, we combine the Glaeser - Henderson - De Lucio models with spatial econometric specifications in order to contrast the existence of spatially static (agglomeration) and spatially dynamic (network) external economies in an urban growth model. Results suggest that higher growth rates are associated to higher levels of technology and knowledge. The growth of the different kinds of knowledge is related to local and spatial factors (agglomeration and network externalities) and each knowledge intensity shows a particular response to these factors. These results have implications for policy design, since we can forecast and intervene on local knowledge development paths.

Enabling dCache to use preexistent mass storage systems

A mesura que la investigació depèn cada vegada més dels computadors, l'emmagatzematge de dades comença a convertir-se en un recurs escàs per als projectes, i suposa una gran part del cost total. Alguns projectes intenten resoldre aquest problema emprant emmagatzament distribuït. És doncs necessari que alguns centres proveeixin de grans quantitats d'emmagatzematge massiu de baix cost basat en cintes magnètiques. L'inconvenient d'aquesta solució és que el rendiment disminueix, particularment a l'hora de tractar-se de grans quantitats d'arxius petits. El nostre objectiu és crear un híbrid entre un sistema d'alt cost i rendiment basat en discs, i un de baix cost i rendiment basat en cintes. Per això, unirem dCache, un sistema d'emmagatzematge distribuït, amb Castor, un sistema d'emmagatzematge jeràrquic, creant sistemes de fitxers virtuals que contindran grans quantitats d'arxius petits per millorar el rendiment global del sistema.

Evolution of holometabola insect digestive systems: physiological and biochemical aspects

This review takes into account primarily the work done in our laboratory with insects from the major Holometabola orders. Only the most significant data for each insect will be presented and a proposal on the evolution of Holometabola insect digstive systems will be advanced.

Multilayer perceptron with local constraint as an emerging method in spatial data analysis

The use of Geographic Information Systems has revolutionalized the handling and the visualization of geo-referenced data and has underlined the critic role of spatial analysis. The usual tools for such a purpose are geostatistics which are widely used in Earth science. Geostatistics are based upon several hypothesis which are not always verified in practice. On the other hand, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) a priori can be used without special assumptions and are known to be flexible. This paper proposes to discuss the application of ANN in the case of the interpolation of a geo-referenced variable.

SYSGENET: a meeting report from a new European network for systems genetics.

The first scientific meeting of the newly established European SYSGENET network took place at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI) in Braunschweig, April 7-9, 2010. About 50 researchers working in the field of systems genetics using mouse genetic reference populations (GRP) participated in the meeting and exchanged their results, phenotyping approaches, and data analysis tools for studying systems genetics. In addition, the future of GRP resources and phenotyping in Europe was discussed.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.