Adjustment to target capital, finance and growth

Does financial development result in capital being reallocated more rapidly to industries where it is most productive? We argue that if this was the case, financially developed countries should see faster growth in industries with investment opportunities due to global demand and productivity shifts. Testing this cross-industry cross-country growth implication requires proxies for (latent) global industry investment opportunities. We show that tests relying only on data from specific (benchmark) countries may yield spurious evidence for or against the hypothesis. We therefore develop an alternative approach that combines benchmark-country proxies with a proxy that does not reflect opportunities specific to a country or level of financial development. Our empirical results yield clear support for the capital reallocation hypothesis.

Méthodologie intégrée de microgravimétrie en milieu urbain : test d'application au génie civil sur le métro M2 de Lausanne

RESUME Dès le printemps 2004, la construction d'une 2ème ligne de métro est entreprise dans la ville de Lausanne en Suisse. En reliant Ouchy, au bord du lac Léman (alt. 373 m) à Epalinges (alt. 711 m), le nouveau métro "M2" traversera dès 2008 l'agglomération lausannoise du Sud au Nord sur une distance de 6 km. Depuis l'avant-projet, en 1999, une grande quantité de données géologiques a été récolté et de nombreux forages exécutés sur le site. Ceci nous a donné une occasion unique d'entreprendre une étude de microgravimétrique urbaine de détail. Le mode de creusement du tunnel dépend fortement des matériaux à excaver et il est classiquement du domaine du géologue, avec ses connaissances de la géologie régionale et de la stratigraphie des forages, de fournir à l'ingénieur un modèle géologique. Ce modèle indiquera dans ce cas l'épaisseur des terrains meubles qui recouvrent le soubassement rocheux. La représentativité spatiale d'une information très localisée, comme celle d'un forage, est d'autant plus compliquée que le détail recherché est petit. C'est à ce moment là que la prospection géophysique, plus spécialement gravimétrique, peut apporter des informations complémentaires déterminantes pour régionaliser les données ponctuelles des forages. La microgravimétrie en milieu urbain implique de corriger avec soin les perturbations gravifiques sur la mesure de la pesanteur dues aux effets de la topographie, des bâtiments et des caves afin d'isoler l'effet gravifique dû exclusivement à l'épaisseur du remplissage des terrains meubles. Tenant compte de l'intensité des corrections topographiques en milieu urbain, nous avons donné une grande importance aux sous-sols, leurs effets gravifiques pouvant atteindre l'ordre du dixième de mGal. Nous avons donc intégré ces corrections celle de topographie et traité les effets des bâtiments de manière indépendante. Nous avons inclus dans le modèle numérique de terrain (MNT) la chaussée et les sous-sols afin de construire un modèle numérique de terrain urbain. Nous utiliserons un nouvel acronyme « MNTU »pour décrire ce modèle. Nous proposons d'établir des cartes de corrections topographiques préalables, basées sur les données à disposition fournies par le cadastre en faisant des hypothèses sur la profondeur des sous-sols et la hauteur des bâtiments. Les deux zones de test choisies sont caractéristiques des différents types d'urbanisation présente à Lausanne et se révèlent par conséquent très intéressantes pour élaborer une méthodologie globale de la microgravimétrie urbaine. Le but était d'évaluer l'épaisseur du remplissage morainique sur un fond rocheux molassique se situant à une profondeur variable de quelques mètres à une trentaine de mètres et d'en établir une coupe dans l'axe du futur tracé du métro. Les résultats des modélisations se sont révélés très convaincants en détectant des zones qui diffèrent sensiblement du modèle géologique d'avant projet. Nous avons également démontré que l'application de cette méthode géophysique, non destructive, est à même de limiter le nombre de sondages mécaniques lors de l'avant-projet et du projet définitif, ce qui peut limiter à la fois les coûts et le dérangement engendré par ces travaux de surface. L'adaptabilité de la technique gravimétrique permet d'intervenir dans toutes les différentes phases d'un projet de génie civil comme celui de la construction d'un métro en souterrain. KURZFASSUNG Seit dem Frühling 2004 ist in der Stadt Lausanne (Schweiz) die neue U-Bahn "M2" in Konstruktion. Diese soll auf 6 km Länge die Lausanner Agglomeration von Süd nach Nord durchqueren. Die dem Projekt zu Grunde liegende technische Planung sieht vor, daß die Bahnlinie hauptsächlich in der Molasse angesiedelt sein wird. Seit dem Vorentwurf (1999) ist eine große Anzahl geologischer Angaben gesammelt worden. Daraus ergab sich die einmalige Gelegenheit, die Informationen aus den damit verbundenen zahlreichen Bohrungen zu einer detaillierten mikrogravimetrischen Studie der Stadt Lausanne zu erweitern und zu vervollständigen. Das Ziel bestand darin, die Mächtigkeit der die Molasseüberdeckenden Moräneablagerung abzuschätzen, um eine entsprechendes geologisches Profile entlang der künftigen Bahnlinie zu erstellen. Weiterhin sollte gezeigt werden, daß die Anwendung dieser nicht-invasiven geophysikalischen Methode es ermöglicht, die Anzahl der benötigten Bohrungen sowohl in der Pilotphase wie auch im endgültigen Projekt zu reduzieren, was zu wesentlichen finanziellen Einsparungen in der Ausführung des Werkes beitragen würde. Die beiden in dieser Studie bearbeiteten Testzonen befinden sich im Nordteil und im Stadtzentrum von Lausanne und sind durch eine unterschiedliche Urbanisierung charakterisiert. Das anstehende Gestein liegt in verschiedenen Tiefen: von einigen Metern bis zu etwa dreißig Metern. Diese Zonen weisen alle Schwierigkeiten einer urbanen Bebauung mit hoher Verkehrsdichte auf und waren daher massgebend bei der Ausarbeitung einer globalen mikrogravimetrischen Methodologie für die Stadt Lausanne. Die so entwickelte Technik ermöglicht, die störenden Auswirkungen der Topographie, der Gebäude, der Keller und der Öffentlichen Infrastrukturen sorgfältig zu korrigieren, um so die ausschließlich auf die Mächtigkeit des Lockergesteins zurückzuführenden Effekte zu isolieren. In Bezug auf die Intensität der Auswirkungen der topographischen Korrekturen im Stadtgebiet wurde den Untergeschossen eine besonders grosse Bedeutung zugemessen da die entsprechenden Schwerkrafteffekte eine Grösse von rund einem Zehntel mGal erreichen können. Wir schlagen deshalb vor, vorläufige Karten der topographischen Korrekturen zu erstellen. Diese Korrekturen basieren auf den uns vom Katasterplan gelieferten Daten und einigen Hypothesen bezüglich der Tiefe der Untergeschosse und der Höhe der Gebäude. Die Verfügbarkeit einer derartigen Karte vor der eigentlichen gravimetrischen Messkampagne würde uns erlauben, die Position der Meßstationen besser zu wählen. Wir sahen zudem, daß ein entsprechenden a priori Filter benutzt werden kann, wenn die Form und die Intensität der Anomalie offensichtlich dem entsprechenden Gebäude zugeordnet werden können. Diese Strategie muß jedoch mit Vorsicht angewandt werden, denn falls weitere Anomalien dazukommen, können bedeutende Verschiebungen durch Übèrlagerungen der Schwerewirkung verschiedener Strukturen entstehen. Die Ergebnisse der Modellierung haben sich als sehr überzeugend erwiesen, da sie im Voraus unbekannte sensible Zonen korrekt identifiziert haben. Die Anwendbarkeit der in dieser Arbeit entwickelten gravimetrischen Technik ermöglicht es, während allen Phasen eines Grossbauprojekts, wie zum Beispiel bei der Konstruktion einer unterirdischen U-Bahn, einzugreifen. ABSTRACT Since Spring of 2004 a new metro line has been under construction in the city of Lausanne in Switzerland. The new line, the M2, will be 6 km long and will traverse the city from south to north. The civil engineering project determined that the line would be located primarily in the Molasse. Since the preparatory project in 1999, a great quantity of geological data has been collected, and the many drillings made on the site have proved to be a unique opportunity to undertake a study of urban microgravimetry. The goal was to evaluate the thickness of the morainic filling over the molassic bedrock, and to establish a section along the axis of the future line. It then had to be shown that the application of this nondestructive geophysical method could reduce the number of mechanical surveys required both for a preparatory and a definitive project, which would lead to real savings in the realization of a civil engineering project. The two test zones chosen, one in the northern part of the city and one in the city centre, are characterised by various types of urbanisation. Bedrock is at a depth varying from a few metres to about thirty metres. These zones well exemplify the various difficulties encountered in an urban environment and are therefore very interesting for the development of an overall methodology of urban microgravimetry. Microgravimetry in an urban environment requires careful corrections for gravific disturbances due to the effects of topography, buildings, cellars, and the infrastructure of distribution networks, in order to isolate the gravific effect due exclusively to the thickness of loose soil filling. Bearing in mind the intensity of the topographic corrections in an urban environment, we gave particular importance to basements. Their gravific effects can reach the order of one tenth of one meal, and can influence above all the precision of the Bouguer anomaly. We propose to establish preliminary topographic correction charts based on data provided to us by the land register, by making assumptions on the depths of basements and the heights of buildings. Availability of this chart previous to a gravimetry campaign would enable us to choose optimum measuring sites. We have also seen that an a priori filter can be used when the form and the intensity of the anomaly correspond visually to the corresponding building. This strategy must be used with caution because if other anomalies are to be associated, important shifts can be generated by the superposition of the effects of different structures. The results of the model have proved to be very convincing in detecting previously unknown sensitive zones. The adaptability of the gravimetry technique allows for application in all phases of a civil engineering project such as the construction of an underground metro line. RIASSUNTO Dalla primavera 2004 una nuova linea metropolitana é in costruzione nella città di Losanna in Svizzera. La nuova metropolitana "M2" traverserà per la lunghezza di 6 km il centro urbano di Losanna da sud a nord. II progetto d'ingegneria civile prevedeva un tracciato situato essenzialmente nel fondo roccioso arenaceo terziario (molassa). Dalla redazione del progetto preliminare, avvenuta nel 1999, una grande quantità di dati geologici sono stati raccolti e sono stati eseguiti numerosi sondaggi. Questo sì é presentato come un'occasione unica per mettere a punto uno studio microgravimetrico in ambiente urbano con lo scopo di valutare lo spessore dei terreni sciolti di origine glaciale che ricoprono il fondo roccioso di molassa e di mettere in evidenza come l'applicazione di questo metodo geofisico non distruttivo possa limitare il numero di sondaggi meccanici nella fase di progetto preliminare ed esecutivo con conseguente reale risparmio economico nella realizzazione di una tale opera. Le due zone di test sono situate una nella zona nord e la seconda nel centro storico di Losanna e sono caratterizzate da stili architettonici differenti. II fondo roccioso é situato ad una profondità variabile da qualche metro ad una trentina. Queste due zone sembrano ben rappresentare tutte le difficoltà di un ambiente urbano e ben si prestano per elaborare una metodologia globale per la microgravimetria in ambiente urbano. L'applicazione di questa tecnica nell'ambiente suddetto implica la correzione attenta delle perturbazioni sulla misura dell'accelerazione gravitazionale, causate dalla topografia, gli edifici, le cantine e le infrastrutture dei sottoservizi, per ben isolare il segnale esclusivamente causato dallo spessore dei terreni sciolti. Tenuto conto, dell'intensità delle correzioni topografiche, abbiamo dato grande importanza alle cantine, poiché il loro effetto sulle misure può raggiungere il decimo di mGal. Proponiamo quindi di redigere una carta delle correzioni topografiche preliminare all'acquisizione, facendo delle ipotesi sulla profondità delle cantine e sull'altezza degli edifici, sulla base delle planimetrie catastali. L'analisi di questa carta permetterà di scegliere le posizioni più adatte per le stazioni gravimetriche. Abbiamo anche osservato che un filtro a priori, qualora la forma e l'intensità dell'anomalia fosse facilmente riconducibile in maniera visuale ad un edificio, possa essere efficace. Tuttavia questa strategia deve essere utilizzata con precauzione, poiché può introdurre uno scarto, qualora più anomalie, dovute a differenti strutture, si sovrappongano. I risultati delle modellizzazioni si sono rivelati convincenti, evidenziando zone sensibili non conosciute preventivamente. L'adattabilità della tecnica gravimetrica ha mostrato di poter intervenire in differenti fasi di un progetto di ingegneria civile, quale è quella di un'opera in sotterraneo.

Irreversible investment in stochastically cyclical markets

This paper presents a new framework for studying irreversible (dis)investment whena market follows a random number of random-length cycles (such as a high-tech productmarket). It is assumed that a firm facing such market evolution is always unsure aboutwhether the current cycle is the last one, although it can update its beliefs about theprobability of facing a permanent decline by observing that no further growth phasearrives. We show that the existence of regime shifts in fluctuating markets suffices for anoption value of waiting to (dis)invest to arise, and we provide a marginal interpretationof the optimal (dis)investment policies, absent in the real options literature. Thepaper also shows that, despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has acontinuous sample path, the discreteness in the regime changes implies that the samplepath of the firm s value experiences jumps whenever the regime switches all of a sudden,irrespective of whether the firm is active or not.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Lung microbiota promotes tolerance to allergens in neonates via PD-L1.

Epidemiological data point toward a critical period in early life during which environmental cues can set an individual on a trajectory toward respiratory health or disease. The neonatal immune system matures during this period, although little is known about the signals that lead to its maturation. Here we report that the formation of the lung microbiota is a key parameter in this process. Immediately following birth, neonatal mice were prone to develop exaggerated airway eosinophilia, release type 2 helper T cell cytokines and exhibit airway hyper-responsiveness following exposure to house dust mite allergens, even though their lungs harbored high numbers of natural CD4(+)Foxp3(+)CD25(+)Helios(+) regulatory T (Treg) cells. During the first 2 weeks after birth, the bacterial load in the lungs increased, and representation of the bacterial phyla shifts from a predominance of Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes towards Bacteroidetes. The changes in the microbiota were associated with decreased aeroallergen responsiveness and the emergence of a Helios(-) Treg cell subset that required interaction with programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) for development. Absence of microbial colonization(10) or blockade of PD-L1 during the first 2 weeks postpartum maintained exaggerated responsiveness to allergens through to adulthood. Adoptive transfer of Treg cells from adult mice to neonates before aeroallergen exposure ameliorated disease. Thus, formation of the airway microbiota induces regulatory cells early in life, which, when dysregulated, can lead to sustained susceptibility to allergic airway inflammation in adulthood.

Exposure of highway maintenance workers to fine particulate matter and noise

In this study, we assessed the mixed exposure of highway maintenance workers to airborne particles, noise, and gaseous co-pollutants. The aim was to provide a better understanding of the workers' exposure to facilitate the evaluation of short-term effects on cardiovascular health endpoints. To quantify the workers' exposure, we monitored 18 subjects during 50 non-consecutive work shifts. Exposure assessment was based on personal and work site measurements and included fine particulate matter (PM2.5), particle number concentration (PNC), noise (Leq), and the gaseous co-pollutants: carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone. Mean work shift PM2.5 concentrations (gravimetric measurements) ranged from 20.3 to 321 μg m(-3) (mean 62 μg m(-3)) and PNC were between 1.6×10(4) and 4.1×10(5) particles cm(-3) (8.9×10(4) particles cm(-3)). Noise levels were generally high with Leq over work shifts from 73.3 to 96.0 dB(A); the averaged Leq over all work shifts was 87.2 dB(A). The highest exposure to fine and ultrafine particles was measured during grass mowing and lumbering when motorized brush cutters and chain saws were used. Highest noise levels, caused by pneumatic hammers, were measured during paving and guardrail repair. We found moderate Spearman correlations between PNC and PM2.5 (r = 0.56); PNC, PM2.5, and CO (r = 0.60 and r = 0.50) as well as PNC and noise (r = 0.50). Variability and correlation of parameters were influenced by work activities that included equipment causing combined air pollutant and noise emissions (e.g. brush cutters and chain saws). We conclude that highway maintenance workers are frequently exposed to elevated airborne particle and noise levels compared with the average population. This elevated exposure is a consequence of the permanent proximity to highway traffic with additional peak exposures caused by emissions of the work-related equipment.

Population consequences of environmental sex reversal.

When sex determination in a species is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, exposure to (anthropogenic) changes in the environment can lead to shifts in a population's sex ratio. Such scenarios may be common in many fishes and amphibians, yet their ramifications remain largely unexplored. We used a simple model to study the (short-term) population consequences of environmental sex reversal (ESR). We examined the effects on sex ratios, sex chromosome frequencies, and population growth and persistence after exposure to environmental forces with feminizing or masculinizing tendencies. When environmental feminization was strong, X chromosomes were driven to extinction. Analogously, extinction of normally male-linked genetic factors (e.g., Y chromosomes) was caused by continuous environmental masculinization. Although moderate feminization was beneficial for population growth in the absence of large viability effects, our results suggest that the consequences of ESR are generally negative in terms of population size and the persistence of sex chromosomes. Extreme sex ratios resulting from high rates of ESR also reduced effective population sizes considerably. This may limit any evolutionary response to the deleterious effects of ESR. Our findings suggest that ESR changes population growth and sex ratios in some counter-intuitive ways and can change the predominant factor in sex determination from genetic to fully environmental, often within only a few tens of generations. Populations that lose genetic sex determination may quickly go extinct if the environmental forces that cause sex reversal cease.

Hand development and sequence of ossification in the forelimb of the European shrew Crocidura russula (Soricidae) and comparisons across therian mammals.

Hand development in the European shrew Crocidura russula is described, based on the examination of a cleared and double-stained ontogenetic series and histological sections of a c. 20-day-old embryo and a neonate. In the embryo all carpal elements are still mesenchymal condensations, and there are three more elements than in the adult stage: the 'lunatum', which fuses with the scaphoid around birth; a centrale, which either fuses with another carpal element or just disappears later in ontogeny; and the anlage of an element that later fuses with the radius. Carpal arrangement in the neonate and the adult is the same. In order to compare the relative timing of the onset of ossification in forelimb bones in C. russula with that of other therians, we built up two matrices of events based on two sets of data and used the event-pair method. In the first analysis, ossification of forelimb elements in general was examined, including that of the humerus, radius, ulna, the first carpal and metacarpal to ossify, and the phalanges of the third digit. The second analysis included each carpal, humerus, radius, ulna, the first metacarpal and the first phalanx to ossify. Some characters (= event-pairs) provide synapomorphies for some clades examined. There have been some shifts in the timing of ossification apparently not caused by ecological and/or environmental influences. In two species (Oryctolagus and Myotis), there is a tendency to start the ossification of the carpals relatively earlier than in all other species examined, the sauropsid outgroups included.

Short-term moderate hypocapnia augments detection of optimal cerebral perfusion pressure.

An autoregulation-oriented strategy has been proposed to guide neurocritical therapy toward the optimal cerebral perfusion pressure (CPPOPT). The influence of ventilation changes is, however, unclear. We sought to find out whether short-term moderate hypocapnia (HC) shifts the CPPOPT or affects its detection. Thirty patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), who required sedation and mechanical ventilation, were studied during 20 min of normocapnia (5.1±0.4 kPa) and 30 min of moderate HC (4.4±3.0 kPa). Monitoring included bilateral transcranial Doppler of the middle cerebral arteries (MCA), invasive arterial blood pressure (ABP), and intracranial pressure (ICP). Mx -autoregulatory index provided a measure for the CPP responsiveness of MCA flow velocity. CPPOPT was assessed as the CPP at which autoregulation (Mx) was working with the maximal efficiency. During normocapnia, CPPOPT (left: 80.65±6.18; right: 79.11±5.84 mm Hg) was detectable in 12 of 30 patients. Moderate HC did not shift this CPPOPT but enabled its detection in another 17 patients (CPPOPT left: 83.94±14.82; right: 85.28±14.73 mm Hg). The detection of CPPOPT was achieved via significantly improved Mx-autoregulatory index and an increase of CPP mean. It appeared that short-term moderate HC augmented the detection of an optimum CPP, and may therefore usefully support CPP-guided therapy in patients with TBI.

Feminist Perspectives on Motherhood and Reproduction

Motherhood and reproduction have been at the core of the feminist discourse about women's rights ever since its onset. For the first and second feminist movements, the right to abortion and the public recognition of motherhood have been main issues in the discourse on reproduction. Since the last two dec- ades of the 20th century, the potentials of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) have opened up new venues of feminist discourse.In this paper we sketch the main feminist lines of argumentation regarding motherhood and reproduction since the 1970s, and we identify specific shifts in their recurrent issues. We argue that an essential contribution of feminism to the understanding of motherhood as a structuring category has been its insis- tence on the distinction between biological and social motherhood. Feminist discourse shows how ART has further decomposed biological motherhood and has altered the meaning of motherhood and reproduction. Feminist analysis maintains that despite the rhetoric of choice surrounding ART, these technolo- gies have not increased women's reproductive freedom. The decomposition of biological motherhood, the medical, legal, and commercial development of re- production, and the change in the social perception of motherhood have rather established new forms of control over female reproduction.

Comparability of health care responsiveness in Europe

The aim of this paper is to measure and to correct for the potential incomparability of responses to the SHARE survey on health care responsiveness. A parametric approach based on the use of anchoring vignettes is applied to cross-sectional data (2006-2007) in eleven European countries. More than 7,000 respondents aged 50 years old and over were asked to assess the quality of health care responsiveness in three domains: waiting time for medical treatment, quality of the conditions in visited health facilities, and communication and involvement in decisions about the treatment. Our results suggest that there is reporting heterogeneity across countries and across individuals within countries, and the degree of heterogeneity varies with the health care domain. Although leading countries in terms of health care responsiveness remain among the most successful even after correction for reporting heterogeneity, one may acknowledge many shifts in the ranking of the other countries.

Recovery of biological motion perception and network plasticity after cerebellar tumor removal.

Visual perception of body motion is vital for everyday activities such as social interaction, motor learning or car driving. Tumors to the left lateral cerebellum impair visual perception of body motion. However, compensatory potential after cerebellar damage and underlying neural mechanisms remain unknown. In the present study, visual sensitivity to point-light body motion was psychophysically assessed in patient SL with dysplastic gangliocytoma (Lhermitte-Duclos disease) to the left cerebellum before and after neurosurgery, and in a group of healthy matched controls. Brain activity during processing of body motion was assessed by functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Alterations in underlying cerebro-cerebellar circuitry were studied by psychophysiological interaction (PPI) analysis. Visual sensitivity to body motion in patient SL before neurosurgery was substantially lower than in controls, with significant improvement after neurosurgery. Functional MRI in patient SL revealed a similar pattern of cerebellar activation during biological motion processing as in healthy participants, but located more medially, in the left cerebellar lobules III and IX. As in normalcy, PPI analysis showed cerebellar communication with a region in the superior temporal sulcus, but located more anteriorly. The findings demonstrate a potential for recovery of visual body motion processing after cerebellar damage, likely mediated by topographic shifts within the corresponding cerebro-cerebellar circuitry induced by cerebellar reorganization. The outcome is of importance for further understanding of cerebellar plasticity and neural circuits underpinning visual social cognition.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Fluctuaciones cíclicas y raíces unitarias en la economia española, 1850-1990

En este artículo se analiza el grado de persistencia de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la economía española. En concreto, se estudia si el PIB y el PIB por capita de esta economía presentan una raíz unitaria. Con el fin de evitar el sesgo a aceptar raíces unitarias cuando se producen cambios en la función de tendencia, como el originado por la Guerra Civil española (1936-1939), se han aplicado varios contrastes que tienen en cuenta los cambios en la función de tendencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que existe una importante evidencia en el sentido que el logaritmo del PIB presenta una raíz unitaria. La principal implicación de este resultado es que los shocks sobre el producto tienen efectos permanentes en el nivel del PIB de la economía española, aun cuando esta hipótesis es más difícil de aceptar por el PIB por capita vista la evidencia contradictoria encontrada a favor de la misma.

El desempleo español : factores estructurales

El paro es uno de los problemas más importantes de la economía española y del resto de economías europeas. Un posible análisis, ampliamente extendido en la literatura reciente, considera el desajuste existente entre la oferta y la demanda de trabajo como posible causante de esta situación. En este sentido, la relación empírica entre la tasa de paro y la tasa de vacantes, la denominada curva UV o de Beveridge, ofrece un instrumento para caracterizar el paro d'una economía determinada. Diferentes estudios, como por ejemplo, Jackman et. al. (1983) o Pissarides (1985) entre otros, consideran que los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge pueden interpretarse como variaciones del paro estructural. La identificación de estos desplazamientos puede dar información relevante para diseñar políticas económicas adecuadas. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es el de identificar los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge para la economía española durante el período 1978-96 utilizando datos anuales de la Encuesta de Población Activa (INE) y de Estadística de Empleo (INEM). Dado que ambas fuentes facilitan la información desagregada territorialmente, se puede construir un panel de datos regionales que permite analizar un amplio conjunto de factores que pueden explicar el desplazamiento de la curva, un posible cambio en la elasticidad de la tasa de paro respeto a la tasa de vacantes, así como también valorar la existencia de diferentes comportamientos regionales en el proceso de emparejamiento de trabajos con trabajadores