Decision support system for risk management:a case study

This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Construction risk management:a quantitative approach

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient for ensuring time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation) under-estimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk numagement throughout project life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique in which the effects of risk factors are analysed and! or quantified. This study proposes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project managenumt for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case study of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project1nana.gement is demonstrated.

Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Primary production, financial constraints and economic instability:Zambia since independence.

A systematic analysis is presented of the economic consequences of the abnormally high concentration of Zambia's exports on a commodity whose price is exceptionally unstable. Zambian macro-economic variables in the post-independence years are extensively documented, showing acute instability and decline, particularly after the energy price revolution and the collapse of copper prices. The relevance of stabilization policies designed to correct short-term disequilibrium is questioned. It is, therefore, a pathological case study of externally induced economic instability, complementing other studies in this area which use cross-country analysis of a few selected variables. After a survey of theory and issues pertaining to development, finance and stabilization, the emergence of domestic and foreign financial constraints on the Zambian economy is described. The world copper industry is surveyed and an examination of commodity and world trade prices concludes that copper showed the highest degree of price instability. Specific aspects of Zambia's economy identified for detailed analysis include: its unprofitable mining industry, external payments disequilibrium, a constrained government budget, potentially inflationary monetary growth, and external indebtedness. International comparisons are used extensively, but major copper exporters are subjected to closer scrutiny. An appraisal of policy options concludes the study.

Does institutional quality affect firm performance? Insights from a semiparametric approach

Using a novel modeling approach, and cross-country firm level data for the textiles industry, we examine the impact of institutional quality on firm performance. Our methodology allows us to estimate the marginal impact of institutional quality on productivity of each firm. Our results bring into question conventional wisdom about the desirable characteristics of market institutions, which is based on empirical evidence about the impact of institutional quality on the average firm. We demonstrate, for example, that once both the direct impact of a change in institutional quality on total factor productivity and the indirect impact through changes in efficiency of use of factor inputs are taken into account, an increase in labor market rigidity may have a positive impact on firm output, at least for some firms. We also demonstrate that there are significant intra-country variations in the marginal impact of institutional quality, such that the characteristics of “winners” and “losers” will have to be taken into account before policy is introduced to change institutional quality in any direction.

'Family' ownership, tunnelling and earnings management:a review of the literature

In this review paper, we bring together a number of aspects of family firms that are ubiquitous in a number of institutional contexts, often as part of larger business groups. We pay particular attention to the mechanisms by which families retain control over firms, and the incentives of the families in control to expropriate other stakeholders by way of tunnelling. We examine the role of earnings management in facilitating tunnelling, and evidence about the incidence of earnings management in family firms. Our review suggests that while the literature on these aspects of family control is rich, the contexts in which the empirical exercises are undertaken are relatively few, and hence there is considerable opportunity to expand it to other contexts, in particular in the form of cross-country comparisons of the relative impact of agency conflicts and institutions on these issues.

Is there life in the old dogs yet? Making break-tests work on financial contagion

Many tests of financial contagion require a definition of the dates separating calm from crisis periods. We propose to use a battery of break search procedures for individual time series to objectively identify potential break dates in relationships between countries. Applied to the biggest European stock markets and combined with two well established tests for financial contagion, this approach results in break dates which correctly identify the timing of changes in cross-country transmission mechanisms. Application of break search procedures breathes new life into the established contagion tests, allowing for an objective, data-driven timing of crisis periods.

Earnings differences between Chinese and Indian wage earners, 1987-2004

This paper is one of the first comprehensive attempts to compare earnings in urban China and India over the recent period. While both economies have grown considerably, we illustrate significant cross-country differences in wage growth since the late 1980s. For this purpose, we make use of comparable datasets, estimate Mincer equations and perform Oaxaca–Blinder decompositions at the mean and at different points of the wage distribution. The initial wage differential in favor of Indian workers, observed in the middle and upper part of the distribution, partly disappears over time. While the 1980s Indian premium is mainly due to higher returns to education and experience, a combination of price and endowment effects explains why Chinese wages have caught up, especially since the mid-1990s. The price effect is only partly explained by the observed convergence in returns to education; the endowment effect is driven by faster increase in education levels in China and significantly accentuates the reversal of the wage gap in favor of this country for the first half of the wage distribution.

Does the World Bank have any impact on human development in the poorest countries? Some preliminary evidence from Africa

In an attempt to better understand the impact of the World Bank on human development in poor countries, we use cross-country data on African countries for the 1990–2002 period to examine this relationship. The coefficient estimates of our parsimonious fixed-effects models indicate that while loans and grants of the Bank have had a positive impact on some relatively short-term indicators of health and education in an average African country, there is little evidence to suggest that such loans and grants have helped these countries to consolidate on the short-term gains.

Scale and scope economies and the efficient vertical and horizontal configuration of the water industry:a survey of the literature

This paper surveys the literature on scale and scope economies in the water and sewerage industry. The magnitude of scale and scope economies determines the cost efficient configuration of any industry. In the case of a regulated sector, reliable estimates of these economies are relevant to inform reform proposals that promote vertical (un)bundling and mergers. The empirical evidence allows some general conclusions. First, there is considerable evidence for the existence of vertical scope economies between upstream water production and distribution. Second, there is only mixed evidence on the existence of (dis)economies of scope between water and sewerage activities. Third, economies of scale exist up to certain output level, and diseconomies of scale arise if the company increases its size beyond this level. However, the optimal scale of utilities also appears to vary considerably between countries. Finally, we briefly consider the implications of our findings for water pricing and point to several directions for necessary future empirical research on the measurement of these economies, and explaining their cross country variation.

Did mass privatisation really increase post-communist male mortality?

A recent article in the Lancet, by David Stuckler, Larry King and Martin McKee, investigated anew the fluctuations in adult male mortality rates that have come to characterise the so-called post-communist mortality crisis. Adopting a cross-country, time-series perspective the authors examined how the economic policy strategies of the 1990s impacted upon observed fluctuations in mortality. They conclude that the adoption of a strategy of rapid (mass) privatisation contributed to the adverse mortality trends. We subject that finding to closer scrutiny using the same data from which the Stuckler et al claim stems. We find that their claim that mass privatisation adversely affected male mortality trends in the post-Communist world does not stand up to closer examination. It is not supported empirically and is at odds with what we know about both transition in the post-communist world and about health trends over time in this region.

Institutions, finance and the level of development:the impact on entrepreneurship in transition

We investigate the impact of institutions on entrepreneurial entry, based on a large cross-country sample, combining working age population data generated by the GEM project with macro level indicators. Our four key findings indicate that: (a) institutional obstacles to entrepreneurship have different impact in rich countries compared to poor countries; (b) institutional obstacles have a stronger impact on 'opportunity entrepreneurship' than on 'necessity entrepreneurship'; (c) two institutional indicators - property right protection and access to finance - appear to have a dominant impact on entrepreneurship; (d) institutions have a long term impact. More than ten years after the Soviet system imploded in Central and Eastern Europe, these countries still experience significantly lower levels of entrepreneurship than economies coming from different legal traditions.

Foreign direct investment and employment in Central Europe

This article investigates the effects of foreign direct investment on employment generation in Central Europe. Foreign affiliates operate as a buffer to reductions in overall employment and show significant cross-country differences. A model analyzing the contribution of foreign direct investment to restructuring is developed. This model helps interpret the empirical evidence on the link between foreign direct investment and employment in Central Europe. Increasing differentiation in employment between manufacturing industries dominated by foreign affiliates suggests the importance of diversified sources of foreign direct investment for employment generation and preservation. A disaggregate analysis indeed reveals a much more complex and differentiated role of foreign direct investment in employment preservation, employment generation and structural change than the aggregate picture would suggest. This diversity has important policy implications for attracting and upgrading foreign direct investment.

A comparative analysis of cultural value orientations of Polish and Turkish employees:implications for international human resource management

This study empirically compares and contrasts the cultural value orientations of employees from Poland and Turkey by testing the compatibility of their values in three stages through seven cultural dimensions. The first phase of the study deals with the assessment of inter-country cultural value differences; the second phase investigates the intra-country cultural dynamics between selected demographic groups; and the third phase examines the inter-country cultural differences among the selected demographic groups of employees. The research has been conducted adopting the Maznevski, DiStephano, and Nason's (1995) version of cultural perspectives questionnaire with a sample of 744 (548 Polish and 196 Turkish) respondents. The results show significant cultural differences between Poland and Turkey, a presence of cultural dynamics among certain demographic groups within the country, and a mixture of convergence and divergence in the value systems of certain demographic groups both within and between the two nation(s). The research findings convey important messages to international human resource strategists in order for them to employ an effective and rational employment policy and business negotiation approach(es) to effectively operate in these countries. It also highlights that diversity of cultural values not only requires viewing each of them through cultural dimensions at a macro-level with a cross-country reference, but also requires monitoring their dynamics at the micro-level with reference to controlled demographic groups. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Efficiency analysis of Islamic banks:a case of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

Although considerable effort has been invested in the measurement of banking efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis, hardly any empirical research has focused on comparison of banks in Gulf States Countries This paper employs data on Gulf States banking sector for the period 2000-2002 to develop efficiency scores and rankings for both Islamic and conventional banks. We then investigate the productivity change using Malmquist Index and decompose the productivity into technical change and efficiency change. Further, hypothesis testing and statistical precision in the context of nonparametric efficiency and productivity measurement have been used. Specially, cross-country analysis of efficiency and comparisons of efficiencies between Islamic banks and conventional banks have been investigated using Mann-Whitney test.