Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A farm-level programming model to compare the atmospheric impact of conventional and organic farming

A model is developed to represent the activity of a farm using the method of linear programming. Two are the main components of the model, the balance of soil fertility and the livestock nutrition. According to the first, the farm is supposed to have a total requirement of nitrogen, which is to be accomplished either through internal sources (manure) or through external sources (fertilisers). The second component describes the animal husbandry as having a nutritional requirement which must be satisfied through the internal production of arable crops or the acquisition of feed from the market. The farmer is supposed to maximise total net income from the agricultural and the zoo-technical activities by choosing one rotation among those available for climate and acclivity. The perspective of the analysis is one of a short period: the structure of the farm is supposed to be fixed without possibility to change the allocation of permanent crops and the amount of animal husbandry. The model is integrated with an environmental module that describes the role of the farm within the carbon-nitrogen cycle. On the one hand the farm allows storing carbon through the photosynthesis of the plants and the accumulation of carbon in the soil; on the other some activities of the farm emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The model is tested for some representative farms of the Emilia-Romagna region, showing to be capable to give different results for conventional and organic farming and providing first results concerning the different atmospheric impact. Relevant data about the representative farms and the feasible rotations are extracted from the FADN database, with an integration of the coefficients from the literature.

Mineral dust mobilisation, transport, and deposition in different climate epochs

Mineral dust is an important component of the Earth's climate system and provides essential nutrientsrnto oceans and rain forests. During atmospheric transport, dust particles directly and indirectly influencernweather and climate. The strength of dust sources and characteristics of the transport, in turn, mightrnbe subject to climatic changes. Earth system models help for a better understanding of these complexrnmechanisms.rnrnThis thesis applies the global climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for simulationsrnof the mineral dust cycle under different climatic conditions. The prerequisite for suitable modelrnresults is the determination of the model setup reproducing the most realistic dust cycle in the recentrnclimate. Simulations with this setup are used to gain new insights into properties of the transatlanticrndust transport from Africa to the Americas and adaptations of the model's climate forcing factors allowrnfor investigations of the impact of climatic changes on the dust cycle.rnrnIn the first part, the most appropriate model setup is determined through a number of sensitivity experiments.rnIt uses the dust emission parametrisation from Tegen et al. 2002 and a spectral resolutionrnof T85, corresponding to a horizontal grid spacing of about 155 km. Coarser resolutions are not able tornaccurately reproduce emissions from important source regions such as the Bodele Depression in Chad orrnthe Taklamakan Desert in Central Asia. Furthermore, the representation of ageing and wet deposition ofrndust particles in the model requires a basic sulphur chemical mechanism. This setup is recommended forrnfuture simulations with EMAC focusing on mineral dust.rnrnOne major branch of the global dust cycle is the long-range transport from the world's largest dustrnsource, the Sahara, across the Atlantic Ocean. Seasonal variations of the main transport pathways to thernAmazon Basin in boreal winter and to the Caribbean during summer are well known and understood,rnand corroborated in this thesis. Both Eulerian and Lagrangian methods give estimates on the typicalrntransport times from the source regions to the deposition on the order of nine to ten days. Previously, arnhuge proportion of the dust transported across the Atlantic Ocean has been attributed to emissions fromrnthe Bodele Depression. However, the contribution of this hot spot to the total transport is very low inrnthe present results, although the overall emissions from this region are comparable. Both model resultsrnand data sets analysed earlier, such as satellite products, involve uncertainties and this controversy aboutrndust transport from the Bodele Depression calls for future investigations and clarification.rnrnAforementioned characteristics of the transatlantic dust transport just slightly change in simulationsrnrepresenting climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age in the middle of the last millennium with meanrnnear-surface cooling of 0.5 to 1 K. However, intensification of the West African summer monsoon duringrnthe Little Ice Age is associated with higher dust emissions from North African source regions and wetterrnconditions in the Sahel. Furthermore, the Indian Monsoon and dust emissions from the Arabian Peninsula,rnwhich are affected by this circulation, are intensified during the Little Ice Age, whereas the annual globalrndust budget is similar in both climate epochs. Simulated dust emission fluxes are particularly influencedrnby the surface parameters. Modifications of the model do not affect those in this thesis, to be able tornascribe all differences in the results to changed forcing factors, such as greenhouse gas concentrations.rnDue to meagre comparison data sets, the verification of results presented here is problematic. Deeperrnknowledge about the dust cycle during the Little Ice Age can be obtained by future simulations, based onrnthis work, and additionally using improved reconstructions of surface parameters. Better evaluation ofrnsuch simulations would be possible by refining the temporal resolution of reconstructed dust depositionrnfluxes from existing ice and marine sediment cores.

1st and 2nd Generation Ethanol from Biomass Crops

In chapter 1 and 2 calcium hydroxide as impregnation agent before steam explosion of sugarcane bagasse and switchgrass, respectively, was compared with auto-hydrolysis, assessing the effects on enzymatic hydrolysis and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) at high solid concentration of pretreated solid fraction. In addition, anaerobic digestion of pretreated liquid fraction was carried out, in order to appraise the effectiveness of calcium hydroxide before steam explosion in a more comprehensive way. In As water is an expensive input in both cultivation of biomass crops and subsequent pretreatment, Chapter 3 addressed the effects of variable soil moisture on biomass growth and composition of biomass sorghum. Moreover, the effect of water stress was related to the characteristics of stem juice for 1st generation ethanol and structural carbohydrates for 2nd generation ethanol. In the frame of chapter 1, calcium hydroxide was proven to be a suitable catalyst for sugarcane bagasse before steam explosion, in order to enhance fibre deconstruction. In chapter 2, effect of calcium hydroxide on switchgrass showed a great potential when ethanol was focused, whereas acid addition produced higher methane yield. Regarding chapter 3, during crop cycle the amount of cellulose, hemicellulose and AIL changed causing a decrease of 2G ethanol amount. Biomass physical and chemical properties involved a lower glucose yield and concentration at the end of enzymatic hydrolysis and, consequently, a lower 2G ethanol concentration at the end of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation, proving that there is strong relationship between structure, chemical composition, and fermentable sugar yield. The significantly higher concentration of ethanol at the early crop stage could be an important incentive to consider biomass sorghum as second crop in the season, to be introduced into some agricultural systems, potentially benefiting farmers and, above all, avoiding the exacerbation of the debate about fuel vs food crops.

Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers

Pollinators are a key component of global biodiversity, providing vital ecosystem services to crops and wild plants. There is clear evidence of recent declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in the plants that rely upon them. Here we describe the nature and extent of reported declines, and review the potential drivers of pollinator loss, including habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, climate change and the interactions between them. Pollinator declines can result in loss of pollination services which have important negative ecological and economic impacts that could significantly affect the maintenance of wild plant diversity, wider ecosystem stability, crop production, food security and human welfare.

Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends of European Pollinators, 2010-2015, www.step-project.net) is documenting critical elements in the nature and extent of these declines, examining key functional traits associated with pollination deficits, and developing a Red List for some European pollinator groups. Together these activities are laying the groundwork for future pollinator monitoring programmes. STEP is also assessing the relative importance of potential drivers of pollinator declines, including climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, light pollution, and their interactions. We are measuring the ecological and economic impacts of declining pollinator services and floral resources, including effects on wild plant populations, crop production and human nutrition. STEP is reviewing existing and potential mitigation options, and providing novel tests of their effectiveness across Europe. Our work is building upon existing and newly developed datasets and models, complemented by spatially-replicated campaigns of field research to fill gaps in current knowledge. Findings are being integrated into a policy-relevant framework to create evidence-based decision support tools. STEP is establishing communication links to a wide range of stakeholders across Europe and beyond, including policy makers, beekeepers, farmers, academics and the general public. Taken together, the STEP research programme aims to improve our understanding of the nature, causes, consequences and potential mitigation of declines in pollination services at local, national, continental and global scales.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy)

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Climate change and infectious diseases of wildlife: Altered interactions between pathogens, vectors and hosts

Infectious diseases result from the interactions of host, pathogens, and, in the case of vector-borne diseases, also vectors. The interactions involve physiological and ecological mechanisms and they have evolved under a given set of environmental conditions. Environmental change, therefore, will alter host-pathogen-vector interactions and, consequently, the distribution, intensity, and dynamics of infectious diseases. Here, we review how climate change may impact infectious diseases of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Climate change can have direct impacts on distribution, life cycle, and physiological status of hosts, pathogens and vectors. While a change in either host, pathogen or vector does not necessarily translate into an alteration of the disease, it is the impact of climate change on the interactions between the disease components which is particularly critical for altered disease risks. Finally, climate factors can modulate disease through modifying the ecological networks host-pathogen-vector systems are belonging to, and climate change can combine with other environmental stressors to induce cumulative effects on infectious diseases. Overall, the influence of climate change on infectious diseases involves different mechanisms, it can be modulated by phenotypic acclimation and/or genotypic adaptation, it depends on the ecological context of the host-pathogen-vector interactions, and it can be modulated by impacts of other stressors. As a consequence of this complexity, non-linear responses of disease systems under climate change are to be expected. To improve predictions on climate change impacts on infectious disease, we suggest that more emphasis should be given to the integration of biomedical and ecological research for studying both the physiological and ecological mechanisms which mediate climate change impacts on disease, and to the development of harmonized methods and approaches to obtain more comparable results, as this would support the discrimination of case-specific versus general mechanisms

Water versus ice: The competing roles of modern climate and Pleistocene glacial erosion in the Central Alps of Switzerland

Recent studies have identified relationships between landscape form, erosion and climate in regions of landscape rejuvenation, associated with increased denudation. Most of these landscapes are located in non-glaciated mountain ranges and are characterized by transient geomorphic features. The landscapes of the Swiss Alps are likewise in a transient geomorphic state as seen by multiple knickzones. In this mountain belt, the transient state has been related to erosional effects during the Late Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here, we focus on the catchment scale and categorize hillslopes based on erosional mechanisms, landscape form and landcover. We then explore relationships of these variables to precipitation and extent of LGM glaciers to disentangle modern versus palaeo controls on the modern shape of the Alpine landscape. We find that in grasslands, the downslope flux of material mainly involves unconsolidated material through hillslope creep, testifying a transport-limited erosional regime. Alternatively, strength-limited hillslopes, where erosion is driven by bedrock failure, are covered by forests and/or expose bedrock, and they display oversteepened hillslopes and channels. There, hillslope gradients and relief are more closely correlated with LGM ice occurrence than with precipitation or the erodibility of the underlying bedrock. We relate the spatial occurrence of the transport- and strength-limited process domains to the erosive effects of LGM glaciers. In particular, strength-limited, rock dominated basins are situated above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the LGM, reflecting the ability of glaciers to scour the landscape beyond threshold slope conditions. In contrast, transport-limited, soil-mantled landscapes are common below the ELA. Hillslopes covered by forests occupy the elevations around the ELA and are constrained by the tree line. We conclude that the current erosional forces at work in the Central Alps are still responding to LGM glaciation, and that the modern climate has not yet impacted on the modern landscape.

Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Role of Crop Research and Development in food Security of Africa

Food security is the main concern in Africa as the production and productivity of crops are under continuous threat. Indigenous crops also known as orphan- or as underutilized- crops provide key contributions to food security under the present scenario of increasing world population and changing climate. Hence, these crops which belong to the major categories of cereals, legumes, fruits and root crops play a key role in the livelihood of the resource-poor farmers and consumers since they perform better than the major world crops under extreme soil and climate conditions prevalent in the continent. These indigenous crops have the major advantage that they fit well into the general socio-economic and ecological context of the region. However, despite their huge importance, African crops have generally received little attention by the global scientific community. With the current production systems, only a fraction of yield potential was achieved for most of these crops. In order to devise strategies towards boosting crop productivity in Africa, the current production constraints should be investigated and properly addressed. Key traits known to increase productivity and/or improve nutrition and diverse conventional and modern crop improvement techniques need to be implemented. Commitments in the value-chain from the research, production, marketing to distribution of improved seeds are required by relevant national and international institutions as well as African governments to promote food security in a sustainable manner. The review also presents major achievements and suggestions for stakeholders interested in African agriculture.