Value creation for Amorim Turismo through the optimization of its strategy, resources and processes

With the final purpose of adding value to Amorim Turismo, several papers were analysed, key stakeholders were heard, competitors were studied and so was the market. After this evaluation, it was concluded that there is a chance to consolidate the quality of the service offered and it was with this goal in mind that several recommendations were given. However, such recommendations suffer a cost restriction, which was not neglected, and should be considered into further complementary research activity. Risk assessment was also conducted so that future issues can be anticipated and dealt with preventively.

Prediction of a low-risk concentration of diflubenzuron to aquatic organisms and evaluation of clay and gravel in reducing the toxicity.

Resumo: Predição da concentração de baixo risco de diflubenzuron para organismos aquáticos e avaliação da argila e brita na redução da toxicidade. O diflubenzuron é um inseticida que além de ser usado agricultura, tem sido amplamente empregado na piscicultura, apesar do seu uso ser proibido nesta atividade. Este composto não consta na lista da legislação brasileira que estabelece limites máximos permissíveis em corpos de água para a proteção das comunidades aquáticas. No presente trabalho, a partir da toxicidade do diflubenzuron em organismos não-alvo, foi calculada a concentração de risco para somente 5% das espécies (HC5). O valor deste parâmetro foi estimado em aproximadamente 7 x 10-6 mg L-1 . Este baixo valor é devido à extremamente alta toxicidade do diflubenzuron para dafnídeos e à grande variação de sensibilidade entre as espécies testadas. Dois matérias de relativamente baixo custo se mostraram eficientes na remoção da toxicidade do diflubenzuron de soluções contendo este composto. Dentre esses materiais, a argila expandida promoveu a redução em aproximadamente 50% da toxicidade de uma solução contendo diflubenzuron. Os resultados podem contribuir para políticas públicas no Brasil relacionadas ao estabelecimento de limites máximos permissíveis de xenobióticos no compartimento aquático. Também, para a pesquisa de matérias inertes e de baixo custo com potencial de remoção de xenobióticos presentes em efluentes da aquicultura ou da agricultura. Abstract: Diflubenzuron is an insecticide that, besides being used in the agriculture, has been widely used in fish farming. However, its use is prohibited in this activity. Diflubenzuron is not in the list of Brazilian legislation establishing maximum permissible limits in water bodies for the protection of aquatic communities. In this paper, according toxicity data of diflubenzuron in non-target organisms, it was calculated an hazardous concentration for only 5% of the species (HC5) of the aquatic community. This parameter value was estimated to be about 7 x 10 -6 mg L -1 . The low value is due to the extreme high toxicity of diflubenzuron to daphnids and to the large variation in sensitivity among the species tested. Two relatively low cost and inert materials were efficient in removing the diflubenzuron from solutions containing this compound. Among these materials, expanded clay shown to promote reduction of approximately 50% of the toxicity of a solution containing diflubenzuron. The results may contribute to the establishment of public policies in Brazil associated to the definition of maximum permissible limits of xenobiotics in the aquatic compartment. This study is also relevant to the search of low cost and inert materials for xenobiotics removal from aquaculture or agricultural effluents.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

A randomized and controlled trial of a participative ergonomics intervention to reduce injuries associated with manual tasks: physical risk and legislative

A participative ergonomics approach to reducing injuries associated with manual tasks is widely promoted; however only limited evidence from uncontrolled trials has been available to support the efficacy of such an approach. This paper reports on a randomized and controlled trial of PErforM, a participative ergonomics intervention designed to reduce the risks of injury associated with manual tasks. One hundred and seventeen small to medium sized food, construction, and health workplaces were audited by government inspectors using a manual tasks risk assessment tool (ManTRA). Forty-eight volunteer workplaces were then randomly assigned to Experimental and Control groups with the Experimental group receiving the PErforM program. Inspectors audited the workplaces again, 9 months following the intervention. The results showed a significant decrease in estimates of manual task risk and suggested better legal compliance in the Experimental group.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Hierarchical risk scale of agribusiness activities

This study aims to elaborate a hierarchical risk scale (HRS) of agricultural and cattle breeding activities and to classify the main agricultural crops and cattle breeding activities according to their risk levels. The research is characterized as exploratory and quantitative and was based on previous risk assessment (MARKOWITZ, 1952) and capital cost calculation (SHARPE, 1964) work for other business segments. The calculations on agricultural and cattle breeding data were processed for the period from 2000 to 2006. The used methods considers simplifications and adaptations needed to achieve the proposed objective. The final result, pioneering and embryonic, provides support to improve the management of these activities that are so essential to produce food for society.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

A risk-based system to penalize and reward line management for occupational safety and health performance

Penalizing line management for the occurrence of lost time injuries has in some cases had unintended negative consequences. These are discussed. An alternative system is suggested that penalizes line management for accidents where the combination of the probability of recurrence and the maximum reasonable consequences such a recurrence may have exceeds an agreed limit. A reward is given for prompt effective control of the risk to below the agreed risk limit. The reward is smaller than the penalty. High-risk accidents require independent investigation by a safety officer using analytical techniques. Two case examples are given to illustrate the system. Continuous safety improvement is driven by a planned reduction in the agreed risk limit over time and reward for proactive risk assessment and control.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical and economic impact of exercise electrocardiography and exercise echocardiography in clinical practice

Background Patients with known or suspected coronary disease are often investigated to facilitate risk assessment. We sought to examine the cost-effectiveness of strategies based on exercise echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography. Methods and results We studied 7656 patients undergoing exercise testing; of whom half underwent exercise echocardiography. Risk was defined with the Duke treadmill score for those undergoing exercise electrocardiography alone, and by the extent of ischaemia by exercise echocardiography. Cox proportional hazards models, risk adjusted for pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease, were used to estimate time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Costs (including diagnostic and revascularisation procedures, hospitalisations, and events) were calculated, inflation-corrected to year 2000 using Medicare trust fund rates and discounted at a rate of 5%. A decision model was employed to assess the marginal cost effectiveness (cost/life year saved) of exercise echo compared with exercise electrocardiography. Exercise echocardiography identified more patients as low-risk (51% vs 24%, p<0.001), and fewer as intermediate- (27% vs 51%, p<0.001) and high-risk (22% vs 4%); survival was greater in low- and intermediate- risk and less in high-risk patients. Although initial procedural costs and revascularisation costs (in intermediate- high risk patients) were greater, exercise echocardiography was associated with a greater incremental life expectancy (0.2 years) and a lower use of additional diagnostic procedures when compared with exercise electrocardiography (especially in lower risk patients). Using decision analysis, exercise echocardiography (Euro 2615/life year saved) was more cost effective than exercise electrocardiography. Conclusion Exercise echocardiography may enhance cost-effectiveness for the detection and management of at risk patients with known or suspected coronary disease. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

Injury related risk behavior - a study of Australian skydivers

Risk taking behaviour has been identified as an important host-related determinant of injury in young adults. The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between the two key elements of risk taking behaviour - ie, risk assessment and risk acceptance - in participants of a high risk sporting activity. Skydivers registered with the Australian Parachute Federation were sampled at several jump meetings held at three 'drop-zones' in North Eastern Australia. A cross sectional survey of 215 skydivers ascertained each subject's risk assessment of each of nine hypothetical sky diving scenes and whether or not they would jump in the described conditions. Variables which independently predicted an individual's risk assessment were age group (p < 0.05), gender (p < 0.05) and scene details (p < 0.001). Risk assessment was found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with a 22% decrease in the odds of jumping with every unit increase in risk assessment (OR = 0.78: 95% Cl; 0.76, 0.80). Gender was also found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with males being 19% more likely to jump than females, after controlling for age, experience, currency and risk assessment (OR = 1.19: 95% CI; 1.04, 1.38). The importance of these results is that, by quantifying the relationship between two key elements of risk taking behaviour and several important host factor determinants, they facilitate more informed discussion about the possible role of risk taking behaviour in the causation of injury.

Toxicological Assessment of Coated versus Uncoated Rubber Granulates Obtained from Used Tires for Use in Sport Facilities

Reuse of tire crumb in sport facilities is currently a very cost-effective waste management measure. Considering that incorporation of the waste materials in artificial turf would be facilitated if the rubber materials were already colored green, coatings were specifically developed for this purpose. This paper presents an experimental toxicological and environmental assessment aimed at comparing the obtained emissions to the environment in terms of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), heavy metals, and ecotoxicity for coated and noncoated rubber granulates. This study is a comprehensive evaluation of the major potential critical factors related with the release of all of these classes of pollutants because previous studies were not systematically performed. It was concluded that between the two types of coatings tested, one is particularly effective in reducing emissions to the environment, simultaneously meeting the requirements of adherence and color stability.

Exposure assessment: the influence of environmental monitoring methodology

Exposure assessment is an important step of risk assessment process and has evolved more quickly than perhaps any aspect of the four-step risk paradigm (hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response analysis, and risk characterization). Nevertheless, some epidemiological studies have associated adverse health effects to a chemical exposure with an inadequate or absent exposure quantification. In addition to the metric used, the truly representation of exposure by measurements depends on: the strategy of sampling, random collection of measurements, and similarity between the measured and unmeasured exposure groups. Two environmental monitoring methodologies for formaldehyde occupational exposure were used to assess the influence of metric selection in exposure assessment and, consequently, in risk assessment process.

Air contaminants in animal production: the poultry case

A descriptive study was developed in order to assess air contamination caused by fungi and particles in seven poultry units. Twenty seven air samples of 25 litters were collected through impaction method. Air sampling and particle concentration measurement were performed in the pavilions’ interior and also outside premises, since this was the place regarded as reference. Simultaneously, temperature and relative humidity were also registered. Regarding fungal load in the air from the seven poultry farms, the highest value obtained was 24040 CFU/m3 and the lowest was 320 CFU/m3. Twenty eight species/genera of fungi were identified, being Scopulariopsis brevicaulis (39.0%) the most commonly isolated species and Rhizopus sp. (30.0%) the most commonly isolated genus. From the Aspergillus genus, Aspergillus flavus (74.5%) was the most frequently detected species. There was a significant correlation (r=0.487; p=0.014) between temperature and the level of fungal contamination (CFU/m3). Considering contamination caused by particles, in this study, particles with larger dimensions (PM5.0 and PM10) have higher concentrations. There was also a significant correlation between relative humidity and concentration of smaller particles namely, PM0.5 (r=0.438; p=0.025) and PM1.0 (r=0.537; p=0.005). Characterizing typical exposure levels to these contaminants in this specific occupational setting is required to allow a more detailed risk assessment analysis and to set exposure limits to protect workers’ health.