Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Quantification of in vivo short echo-time proton magnetic resonance spectra at 14.1 T using two different approaches of modelling the macromolecule spectrum

Reliable quantification of the macromolecule signals in short echo-time H-1 MRS spectra is particularly important at high magnetic fields for an accurate quantification of metabolite concentrations (the neurochemical profile) due to effectively increased spectral resolution of the macromolecule components. The purpose of the present study was to assess two approaches of quantification, which take the contribution of macromolecules into account in the quantification step. H-1 spectra were acquired on a 14.1 T/26 cm horizontal scanner on five rats using the ultra-short echo-time SPECIAL (spin echo full intensity acquired localization) spectroscopy sequence. Metabolite concentrations were estimated using LCModel, combined with a simulated basis set of metabolites using published spectral parameters and either the spectrum of macromolecules measured in vivo, using an inversion recovery technique, or baseline simulated by the built-in spline function. The fitted spline function resulted in a smooth approximation of the in vivo macromolecules, but in accordance with previous studies using Subtract-QUEST could not reproduce completely all features of the in vivo spectrum of macromolecules at 14.1 T. As a consequence, the measured macromolecular 'baseline' led to a more accurate and reliable quantification at higher field strengths.

Modelling the mechanical aspects of the curing process of magneto-sensitive elastomeric materials

In this paper, a phenomenologically motivated magneto-mechanically coupled finite strain elastic framework for simulating the curing process of polymers in the presence of a magnetic load is proposed. This approach is in line with previous works by Hossain and co-workers on finite strain curing modelling framework for the purely mechanical polymer curing (Hossain et al., 2009b). The proposed thermodynamically consistent approach is independent of any particular free energy function that may be used for the fully-cured magneto-sensitive polymer modelling, i.e. any phenomenological or micromechanical-inspired free energy can be inserted into the main modelling framework. For the fabrication of magneto-sensitive polymers, micron-size ferromagnetic particles are mixed with the liquid matrix material in the uncured stage. The particles align in a preferred direction with the application of a magnetic field during the curing process. The polymer curing process is a complex (visco) elastic process that transforms a fluid to a solid with time. Such transformation process is modelled by an appropriate constitutive relation which takes into account the temporal evolution of the material parameters appearing in a particular energy function. For demonstration in this work, a frequently used energy function is chosen, i.e. the classical Mooney-Rivlin free energy enhanced by coupling terms. Several representative numerical examples are demonstrated that prove the capability of our approach to correctly capture common features in polymers undergoing curing processes in the presence of a magneto-mechanical coupled load.

Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.

Modelling and Prospects for Audience Measurement of Outdoor Advertising using GPS Devices

The paper describes how to integrate audience measurement and site visibility as the main research approaches in outdoor advertising research in a single concept. Details are portrayed on how GPS is used on a large scale in Switzerland for mobility analysis and audience measurement. Furthermore, the development of a software solution is introduced that allows the integration of all mobility data and poster location information. Finally a model and its results is presented for the calculation of coverage of individual poster campaigns and for the calculation of the number of contacts generated by each billboard.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

El camp conceptual de la metàfora. Llenguatge i pensament : La metàfora com a procés cognitiu en anglès i català. El cas de les metàfores orientacionals

Aquest treball analitza un tipus de metàfores particulars en les llengües catalana i anglesa. En concret, les metàfores orientacionals o metàfores que es basen en analogies amb la distribució espacial i geomètrica, tant del cos humà com del món que ens envolta.

Aproximació al canvi conceptual dels docents respecte a l'ensenyament estratègic de la lectura, a partir d'un curs de formació : una experiència al Cicle mitjà d'Educació Primària

Aquest projecte s'emmarca dins de l'àmbit de l'assessorament psicopedagògic, concretament, en la formació del professorat per a l'ensenyament d'estratègies d'aprenentatge. El tema d'estratègies d'ensenyament/aprenentatge és massa ampli per a poder tractar-lo en un projecte com aquest, amb una limitació temporal que exigeix concretar l'actuació en els punts següents: fer una selecció prèvia d'un determinat conjunt de procediments d'aprenentatge vinculats amb la lectura, situar-lo dins d'un context escolar concret de manera que la formació vagi dirigida als docents del cicle mitjà d'educació primària d'un CEIP del Masnou i centrar l'experiència en dos d'aquests docents.

Integration in strategic alliances : a conceptual framework of IT use in marketing as NPD key factor

En una economia basada en el coneixement, la innovació del producte es considera un factor clau a l'hora de determinar la competitivitat, la productivitat i el creixement d'una companyia. No obstant això, l'experiència de les companyies demostra la necessitat d'un nou model de gestió de la innovació del producte: una gestió basada en el màrqueting, en què la cooperació i l'ús intensiu de les tecnologies de la informació i de la comunicació (TIC) són especialment importants. En els darrers anys, la bibliografia sobre màrqueting ha analitzat el paper de la cooperació en l'èxit del procés d'innovació. No obstant això, fins ara pocs treballs han estudiat el paper que té l'ús de les TIC en el màrqueting en l'èxit del desenvolupament de nous productes (NPD, New Product Development en anglès). És una omissió curiosa, tenint en compte que el nou entorn competitiu és definit per una economia i una societat basades principalment en l'ús intensiu de les TIC i del coneixement. L'objectiu d'aquest treball és investigar el paper que l'ús de les TIC en el màrqueting té en el procés de desenvolupament de nous productes, com a element que reforça la integració d'agents al projecte, afavorint l'establiment de relacions dirigides a la cooperació i l'adquisició d'intel·ligència de mercat útil en el procés de desenvolupament de nous productes. L'estudi d'una mostra de 2.038 companyies de tots els sectors de l'activitat econòmica a Catalunya ens permet contrastar hipòtesis inicials i establir un perfil de companyia innovadora basat en les importants relacions que hi ha entre la innovació, l'ús de TIC en el màrqueting i la integració. Sobresurten dues idees en la nostra anàlisi. En primer lloc, l'ús intensiu de les TIC en el màrqueting fa que la companyia sigui més innovadora, ja que percep que el seu ús ajuda a superar barreres a la innovació i accelera els processos, que es tornen més eficients. En segon lloc, incrementant l'ús de les TIC en el màrqueting es fa augmentar la predisposició de la companyia a integrar agents particulars en l'entorn de negoci en el desenvolupament del procés d'innovació i a col·laborar-hi, de manera que es millora el grau d'adaptació del nou producte a les demandes del mercat.

Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species.