779 resultados para Coherent and convex risk measure


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Our first study develops a measure of appetitive motivation and our second study compares several measures of Gray's (1987) behaviour activation system (BAS) in the prediction of the surface scales of personality. In particular, we were interested in determining the utility of the new appetitive motivation scale and Dickman's functional impulsivity scale. In comparison to other well-known measures, both scales were generally good predictors. We conclude that the appetitive motivation scale is a promising measure of BAS based upon construct validation. Contrary to previous studies which have suggested that BAS is a generally poor predictor of the surface scales of personality, we discovered appetitive motivation to be an important predictor of personality in general. Interestingly, the scale was also predictive of scores on the Baddeley reasoning test. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Sleep-disordered breathing and excessive sleepiness may be more common in commercial vehicle drivers than in the general population. The relative importance of factors causing excessive sleepiness and accidents in this population remains unclear. We measured the prevalence of excessive sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing and assessed accident risk factors in 2,342 respondents to a questionnaire distributed to a random sample of 3,268 Australian commercial vehicle drivers and another 161 drivers among 244 invited to undergo polysomnography. More than half (59.6%) of drivers had sleep-disordered breathing and 15.8% had obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Twenty-four percent of drivers had excessive sleepiness. Increasing sleepiness was related to an increased accident risk. The sleepiest 5% of drivers on the Epworth Sleepiness Scale and Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire had an in-creased risk of an accident (odds ratio [OR] 1.91, p = 0.02 and OR 2.23, p < 0.01, respectively) and multiple accidents (OR 2.67, p < 0.01 and OR 2.39, p = 0.01), adjusted for established risk factors. There was an increased accident risk with narcotic analgesic use (OR 2.40, p < 0.01) and antihistamine use (OR 3.44, p = 0.04). Chronic excessive sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing are common in Australian commercial vehicle drivers. Accident risk was related to increasing chronic sleepiness and antihistamine and narcotic analgesic use.

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This study used a novel cue exposure paradigm to investigate the differences between high- and low-risk drinkers in their desire to drink during a drinking session. Fifty-three self-selected participants were assigned to high- or low-risk drinking groups based on their self-reported consumption of alcohol, then compared on their desire to drink over a 90 min paced drinking session. High-risk drinkers showed increasing desire over the session, while low-risk drinkers' desire began to decrease after only a short drinking period. The perceived and actual effects of the alcohol did not appear to be able to account for the difference. Results are discussed with reference to issues of impaired control. Suggestions for future research directions are also offered.

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Background: Indigenous Australians are at high risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Carotid artery intimal medial thickness (CIMT) and brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) are ultrasound imaging based surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk. This study examines the relative contributions of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on CIMT and FMD in adult Indigenous Australians with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: One hundred and nineteen Indigenous Australians were recruited. Physical and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk, together with CIMT and FMD were meausred for all subjects. Results: Fifty-three Indigenous Australians subjects (45%) had type 2 diabetes mellitus. There was a significantly greater mean CIMT in diabetic versus non-diabetic subjects (p = 0.049). In the non-diabetic group with non-parametric analyses, there were significant correlations between CIMT and: age (r = 0.64, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (r = 0.47, p < 0.001) and non-smokers (r = -0.30, p = 0.018). In the diabetic group, non-parametric analysis showed correlations between CIMT, age (r = 0.36, p = 0.009) and duration of diabetes (r = 0.30, p = 0.035) only. Adjusting forage, sex, smoking and history of cardiovascular disease, Hb(A1c) became the sole significant correlate of CIMT (r = 0.35,p = 0.01) in the diabetic group. In non-parametric analysis, age was the sole significant correlate of FMD (r = -0.31,p = 0.013), and only in non-diabetic subjects. Linear regression analysis showed significant associations between CIMT and age (t = 4.6,p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (t = 2.6, p = 0.010) and Hb(A1c) (t = 2.6, p = 0.012), smoking (t = 2.1, p = 0.04) and fasting LDL-cholesterol (t = 2.1, p = 0.04). There were no significant associations between FMD and examined cardiovascular risk factors with linear regression analysis Conclusions: CIMT appears to be a useful surrogate marker of cardiovascular risk in this sample of Indigenous Australian subjects, correlating better than FMD with established cardiovascular risk factors. A lifestyle intervention programme may alleviate the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indigenous Australians by reducing central obesity, lowering blood pressure, correcting dyslipidaemia and improving glycaemic control. CIMT may prove to be a useful tool to assess efficacy of such an intervention programme. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Genetic screening of women from multiple-case breast cancer families and other research-based endeavors have identified an extensive collection of germline variations of BRCA1 and BRCA2 that can be classified as deleterious and have clinical relevance. For some variants, such as those in the conserved intronic splice site regions which are highly likely to alter splicing, it is not possible to classify them based on the identified DNA sequence variation alone. We studied 11 multiple-case breast cancer families carrying seven distinct splice site region genetic alterations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1, c.IVS6-2delA, c.IVS9-2A>C, c.IVS4-1G>T, c.IVS20+1G>A and BRCA2, c.IVS17-1G>C, c.IVS20+1G>A, c.IVS7-1G>A) and applied SpliceSiteFinder to predict possible changes in efficiency of splice donor and acceptor sites, characterized the transcripts, and estimated the average age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) using a modified segregation analysis. SpliceSiteFinder predicted and we identified transcipts that illustrated that all variants caused exon skipping, and all but two led to frameshifts. The risks of breast cancer to age 70 yrs, averaged over all variants, over BRCA1 variants alone, and over BRCA2 variants alone, were 73% (95% confidence interval 47-93), 64% (95%CI 28-96) and 79% (95%CI 48-98) respectively (all P

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Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behaviour among a sentinel sample of ecstasy users. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with regular ecstasy users as part of an annual monitoring study of ecstasy and related drug markets in all Australian capital cities. Results: Twenty-three percent of the sample reported having ever injected a drug and 15% reported injecting in the 6 months preceding interview. Independent predictors of lifetime injection were older age, unemployment and having ever been in prison. Completion of secondary school and identifying as heterosexual was associated with a lower likelihood of having ever injected. Participants who had recently injected typically did so infrequently; only 9% reported daily injecting. Methamphetamine was the most commonly injected drug. Prevalence of needle sharing was low (6%), although half (47%) reported sharing other injecting equipment in the preceding 6 months. Conclusions: Ecstasy users who report having injected a drug at some time appear to be demographically different to ecstasy users who have not injected although neither are they typical of other drug injectors. The current investigation suggests that ongoing monitoring of injecting among regular ecstasy users is warranted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Although perceived health risk plays a prominent role in theories of health behavior. its empirical role in risk taking is less clear. In Study 1 (N = 129), 2 measures of drivers' risk-taking behavior were found to be unrelated to self-estimates of accident concern but to be related to self-ratings of driving skill and the perceived thrill of driving. In Study 2 (N = 405), out of a wide range of potential influences, accident concern had the weakest relationship with risk taking. The authors concluded that although health risk is a key feature in many theories of health behavior and a central focus for researchers and policy makers, it may not be such a prominent factor for those actually taking the risk.

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How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

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Objective: To compare the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in patients ventilated in intensive care by means of circuits humidified with a hygroscopic heat-and-moisture exchanger with a bacterial viral filter (HME) or hot-water humidification with a heater wire in both inspiratory and expiratory circuit limbs (DHW) or the inspiratory limb only (SHW). Design: A prospective, randomized trial. Setting: A metropolitan teaching hospital's general intensive care unit. Patients: Three hundred eighty-one patients requiring a minimum period of mechanical ventilation of 48 hrs. Interventions: Patients were randomized to humidification with use of an HME (n = 190), SHW (n = 94), or DHW (n = 97). Measurements and Main Results. Study end points were VAP diagnosed on the basis of Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS) (1), HME resistance after 24 hrs of use, endotracheal tube resistance, and HME use per patient. VAP occurred with similar frequency in all groups (13%, HME; 14%, DHW; 10%, SHW; p = 0.61) and was predicted only by current smoking (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-3.9; p =.03) and ventilation days (AOR, 1.05; 95% Cl, 1.0-1.2; p =.001); VAP was less likely for patients with an admission diagnosis of pneumonia (AOR, 0.40; 95% Cl, 0.4-0.2; p =.04). HME resistance after 24 hrs of use measured at a gas flow of 50 L/min was 0.9 cm H2O (0.4-2.9). Endotracheal tube resistance was similar for all three groups (16-19 cm H2O min/L; p =.2), as were suction frequency, secretion thickness, and blood on suctioning (p =.32, p =.06, and p =.34, respectively). The HME use per patient per day was 1.13. Conclusions: Humidification technique does not influence either VAP incidence or secretion characteristics, but HMEs may have air-flow resistance higher than manufacturer specifications after 24 hrs of use.

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Deficiency of Glutathione S-transferases (GST) M1 and T1 are associated with chronic diseases (e.g. lung cancer, MS) and could be one factor for the risk for CHD.We conducted a pros-pective case-control study in 93 pts. with angiographically proven CHD and 161 controls matched for age ±2y and gender (resulting in n=91 pairs, of which 18 were female). Genes coding for functional GST M1 and T1 were analysed acoording to previously published methods. The association between GST M1, T1 was tested using Fisher's exact test; logistic regression analysis was performed to control for HDL-cholesterol, diabetes smoking, diabetes, hypertension. 41% of cases were smokers, 25% had diabetes and 68% hypertension, corresponding figures for controls were 31%, 13% and 33%. Mean HDL-cholesterol levels were comparable (pts: 46±14 mg/dl, controls: 43± 19 mg/dl). There was no overall significant correlation between functional GST T1 and M1 genotypes and CHD, however, there seems to be an association between GST M1, HDL-cholesterol and CHD. Larger studies are needed to verify these data.