Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Dibuixar un arbre / Drawing a Tree

L’arbre, un dels símbols més universals i un element intrínsecament vinculat al desenvolupament de la nostra cultura, esdevé, en aquest llibre, el pretext idoni per donar a conèixer alguns dels interrogants que la vivència de l’art contemporani planteja. L’artista Àlex Nogué obre les portes del seu procés de creació per fer visible com es desencadena la gènesi d’una obra d’art i posa a la llum les incerteses, les intuïcions i les aspiracions que comporta la creació artística. Dibuixar un arbre tracta de les similituds entre l’emoció que produeix un plançó al mig d’un bosc i l’emoció de traslladar-lo fins a l’interior d’una presó. De les diferències de dibuixar un xiprer dret o abatut. Dels silencis i dels sorolls de les imatges. Del que una obra pretén i del que mai aconsegueix. Les imatges i els textos d’aquest llibre ens permeten transitar per l’interior de vuit processos de creació i ens mostren com els treballs artístics neixen i creixen. Per emmarcar l’experiència creativa en el context cultural contemporani, Dibuixar unarbre s’inicia amb cinc reflexions d’autors que han viscut amb empatia aquest recorregutcreatiu. Ells mateixos estan immersos de manera apassionada en la creació, producció,difusió o direcció de projectes creatius, i són: Eudald Camps, Xavier Franquesa, Rosa Pera, Víctor Sunyol i Àngels Viladomiu.

Effect of multidimensional lifestyle intervention on fitness and adiposity in predominantly migrant preschool children (Ballabeina): cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To test the effect of a multidimensional lifestyle intervention on aerobic fitness and adiposity in predominantly migrant preschool children. DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled single blinded trial (Ballabeina study) over one school year; randomisation was performed after stratification for linguistic region. SETTING: 40 preschool classes in areas with a high migrant population in the German and French speaking regions of Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: 652 of the 727 preschool children had informed consent and were present for baseline measures (mean age 5.1 years (SD 0.7), 72% migrants of multicultural origins). No children withdrew, but 26 moved away. INTERVENTION: The multidimensional culturally tailored lifestyle intervention included a physical activity programme, lessons on nutrition, media use (use of television and computers), and sleep and adaptation of the built environment of the preschool class. It lasted from August 2008 to June 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run test) and body mass index (BMI). Secondary outcomes included motor agility, balance, percentage body fat, waist circumference, physical activity, eating habits, media use, sleep, psychological health, and cognitive abilities. RESULTS: Compared with controls, children in the intervention group had an increase in aerobic fitness at the end of the intervention (adjusted mean difference: 0.32 stages (95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.57; P=0.01) but no difference in BMI (-0.07 kg/m(2), -0.19 to 0.06; P=0.31). Relative to controls, children in the intervention group had beneficial effects in motor agility (-0.54 s, -0.90 to -0.17; P=0.004), percentage body fat (-1.1%, -2.0 to -0.2; P=0.02), and waist circumference (-1.0 cm, -1.6 to -0.4; P=0.001). There were also significant benefits in the intervention group in reported physical activity, media use, and eating habits, but not in the remaining secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A multidimensional intervention increased aerobic fitness and reduced body fat but not BMI in predominantly migrant preschool children.

Effect of pruning on tree growth, yield, and wood properties of Tectona grandis plantations in Costa Rica

Abstract

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

2012 Community Tree Management Plan, Alburnett, IA, June 24, 2013

This plan was developed to assist Alburnett with the management, budgeting and future planning of their urban forest. Across the state, forestry budgets continue to decrease with more and more of that money spent on tree removal. With the anticipated arrival of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), an invasive pest that kills native ash trees, it is time to prepare for the increased costs of tree removal and replacement planting. With proper planning and management of the current canopy in Alburnett, these costs can be extended over years and public safety issues from dead and dying ash trees mitigated. Trees are an important component of Alburnett’s infrastructure and one of the greatest assets to the community. The benefits of trees are immense. Trees provide the community with improved air quality, stormwater runoff interception, energy conservation, lower traffic speeds, increased property values, reduced crime, improved mental health and create a desirable place to live, to name just a few benefits. It is essential that these benefits be maintained for the people of Alburnett and future generations through good urban forestry management. Good urban forestry management involves setting goals and developing management strategies to achieve these goals. An essential part of developing management strategies is a comprehensive public tree inventory. The inventory supplies information that will be used for maintenance, removal schedules, tree planting and budgeting. Basing actions on this information will help meet Alburnett’s urban forestry goals.

2012 Community Tree Management Plan, Avoca, IA, May 2, 2013

This plan was developed to assist Avoca with the management, budgeting and future planning of their urban forest. Across the state, forestry budgets continue to decrease with more and more of that money spent on tree removal. With the anticipated arrival of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), an invasive pest that kills native ash trees, it is time to prepare for the increased costs of tree removal and replacement planting. With proper planning and management of the current canopy in Avoca, these costs can be extended over years and public safety issues from dead and dying ash trees mitigated. Trees are an important component of Avoca’s infrastructure and one of the greatest assets to the community. The benefits of trees are immense. Trees provide the community with improved air quality, stormwater runoff interception, energy conservation, lower traffic speeds, increased property values, reduced crime, improved mental health and create a desirable place to live, to name just a few benefits. It is essential that these benefits be maintained for the people of Avoca and future generations through good urban forestry management. Good urban forestry management involves setting goals and developing management strategies to achieve these goals. An essential part of developing management strategies is a comprehensive public tree inventory. The inventory supplies information that will be used for maintenance, removal schedules, tree planting and budgeting. Basing actions on this information will help meet Avoca’s urban forestry goals.

2012 Community Tree Management Plan, Belle Plaine, IA, June 24, 2013

This plan was developed to assist Belle Plaine with the management, budgeting and future planning of their urban forest. Across the state, forestry budgets continue to decrease with more and more of that money spent on tree removal. With the anticipated arrival of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), an invasive pest that kills native ash trees, it is time to prepare for the increased costs of tree removal and replacement planting. With proper planning and management of the current canopy in Belle Plaine, these costs can be extended over years and public safety issues from dead and dying ash trees mitigated. Trees are an important component of Belle Plaine’s infrastructure and one of the greatest assets to the community. The benefits of trees are immense. Trees provide the community with improved air quality, stormwater runoff interception, energy conservation, lower traffic speeds, increased property values, reduced crime, improved mental health and create a desirable place to live, to name just a few benefits. It is essential that these benefits be maintained for the people of Belle Plaine and future generations through good urban forestry management. Good urban forestry management involves setting goals and developing management strategies to achieve these goals. An essential part of developing management strategies is a comprehensive public tree inventory. The inventory supplies information that will be used for maintenance, removal schedules, tree planting and budgeting. Basing actions on this information will help meet Belle Plaine’s urban forestry goals.

Mycorrhizal dependency of mangaba tree under increasing phosphorus levels

The objective of this study was to evaluate the mycorrhizal dependency of mangaba tree (Hancornia speciosa) plantlets, under increasing levels of phosphorus fertilization. The experimental design was completely randomized in a 4×5 factorial arrangement with three mycorrhizal fungi inocula - Gigaspora margarita, Glomus etunicatum, or a pool of native mycorrhizal fungi (Acaulospora longula, Glomus clarum, Gigaspora albida, Paraglomus sp.) -, and a nonmycorrhizal control, in combination with five levels of phosphorus applied to the substrate: 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 mg kg-1. After 180 days of growth, plantlets with inoculation of native mycorrhizal pool produced more shoot and root dry biomass and had higher shoot phosphorus content and accumulation. The noninoculated control showed the lowest values, independently of the phosphorus level. The highest relative mycorrhizal dependency occurred with the inoculation of native mycorrhizal fungi. Plants with mycorrhizal fungi did not respond to phosphorus addition above 50 mg kg-1. Mangaba tree is highly dependent on mycorrhiza, but the degree of dependency varies according to phosphorus levels and fungal inocula. In general, mangaba tree is more responsive to mycorrhizal fungi inoculation than to phosphorus addition.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Height distributions of Scots pine sapling stands affected by retained tree and edge stand competition

Abstract

Measurement of the tree root growth using electrical impedance spectroscopy

Abstract

Functions for estimating stem diameter and tree age using tree height, crown width and existing stand database information

Abstract