Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Predictors of HIV-protection behaviour in HIV-positive men who have sex with casual male partners: a test of the explanatory power of an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills model.

This prospective study applies an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills (IMB) model to establish predictors of HIV-protection behaviour among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) during sex with casual partners. Data have been collected from anonymous, self-administered questionnaires and analysed by using descriptive and backward elimination regression analyses. In a sample of 165 HIV-positive MSM, 82 participants between the ages of 23 and 78 (M=46.4, SD=9.0) had sex with casual partners during the three-month period under investigation. About 62% (n=51) have always used a condom when having sex with casual partners. From the original IMB model, only subjective norm predicted condom use. More important predictors that increased condom use were low consumption of psychotropics, high satisfaction with sexuality, numerous changes in sexual behaviour after diagnosis, low social support from friends, alcohol use before sex and habitualised condom use with casual partner(s). The explanatory power of the calculated regression model was 49% (p<0.001). The study reveals the importance of personal and social resources and of routines for condom use, and provides information for the research-based conceptualisation of prevention offers addressing especially people living with HIV ("positive prevention").

Comparison between the Counter Immunoelectrophoresis Test and Mouse Neutralization Test for the Detection of Antibodies against Rabies Virus in Dog Sera

The detection of rabies antibodies is extremely valuable for epidemiological studies, determination of immune status in man, animals, and for the diagnosis of the disease. Several serological procedures have been described for this purpose. The present study reports a comparison between counterimmunoelectrophoresis test (CIET) and mouse neutralization test (MNT) in the detection of antibodies against rabies virus from 212 serum samples of vaccinated dogs. The agreement between both techniques was 79.7% and a significative association was demonstrated. The correlation coefficients between MNT and the CIET titers was determined considering 88 samples showing positive results in both techniques [CIET = 2 and MNT = 5 (0.13 IU/ml)] and resulted r² = 0.7926 (p < 0.001). The performance of CIET system was technically simple, cheap and rapid, and thereby it could be useful for serological monitoring of dog vaccination campaigns as well as for individual analysis.

Direct Sensitivity Test of the MB/BacT System

In order to evaluate the direct-method test of sensitivity to drugs used in the principal tuberculosis treatment regimes, in the Organon Teknika MB/BacT system, we tested 50 sputum samples positive to microscopy taken from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and with clinical indications for an antibiogram, admitted sequentially for examination during the routine of the reference laboratory. The material was treated v/v with 23% trisodium phosphate solution, incubated for 24 h at 35°C, and neutralized v/v with 20% monosodium phosphate solution. The material was then centrifuged and the sediment inoculated into flasks containing Rifampin - 2 µg/ml, Isoniazid - 0.2 µg/ml, Pyrazinamide - 100 µg/ml, Ethambutol - 2.5 µg/ml, Ethionamide - 1.25 µg/ml, and Streptomycin - 2 µg/ml. The tests were evaluated using the indirect method in the BACTEC 460 TB (Becton Dickinson) system as the gold standard. The results showed that the Rifampin test performed best, i.e., 100% sensitivity at 95% Confidence Interval (82.2-100) and 100% specificity at 95% Confidence Interval (84.5-100), followed by Isoniazid and Pyrazinamide. In this experiment, 92% of the materials showed a final reading in 30 days; this period represents the time for primary isolation as well as the results of the sensitivity profile, and is within Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations regarding time for performance of the antibiogram. The inoculated flasks showed no contamination during the experiment. The MB/BacT is shown to be a reliable, rapid, fully automated nonradiometric system for the tuberculosis antibiogram.

Comparison of a Recombinant-antigen Enzyme Immunoassay with Treponema pallidum Hemagglutination Test for Serological Confirmation of Syphilis

A recombinant-antigen enzyme immunoassay (EIA), BioSCREEN TM anti-Treponema pallidum, was compared favorably with the T. pallidum hemagglutination test, in the detection of specific antibodies in different groups of sera from patients with primary (n = 38), secondary (n = 10), early latent (n = 28) and congenital syphilis (n = 2), patients with leptospirosis ( n= 8), infectious mononucleosis (n = 7), hepatitis (n = 9), diabetes mellitus (n = 11), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 13), leprosy (n = 11), tuberculosis (n = 9), HIV/Aids ( n= 12), systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 4), rheumatic fever (n = 3), old-persons (n = 9), pregnant women (n = 29) and blood donors (n = 164). The coincidence between them was 95.1%. The sensitivity and specificity of the EIA were 93.3% and 95.5%, respectively. Fifteen serum specimens belonging to old-persons, pregnant women, blood donors, and patients with human leptospirosis, hepatitis, diabetes mellitus, tuberculosis and rheumatic fever gave false-positive results by Venereal Disease Research Laboratory and/or Rapid Plasma Reagin. The EIA can be used as alternative method for the serological confirmation of syphilis.

Comparison of the Proportion Method With Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube and E-test for Susceptibility Testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between proportion method with mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) and E-test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Forty clinical isolates were tested. MGIT and E-test with the first line antituberculous drugs correlated with the proportion method. Our results suggested that MGIT and E-test methods can be routinely used instead of the proportion method.

IgM-Immunofluorescence Test as a Diagnostic Tool for Epidemiologic Studies of Schistosomiasis in Low Endemic Areas

The high sensitivity and the ability to diagnose schistosomiasis in a very early phase after infection have indicated the detection of IgM antibodies to Schistosoma mansoni gut antigens by the immunofluorescence test (IgM-IFT) as a useful serological test for epidemiological studies in low endemic areas. When applied in a follow-up study for two years, higher rates of seroconversion from IFT negative to positive were observed during the summer months, suggesting seasonal transmission of schistosomiasis in the rural area of the municipality of Itariri (São Paulo, Brazil). In each survey, blood samples from about 600 schoolchildren were collected on filter paper and submitted to IgM-IFT. When the blood samples were classified for the IgM antibody levels, according to the intensity of fluorescent reaction observed at fluorescence microscopy, and correlated to the egg counts in the Kato-Katz positive patients, no association was observed. This observation might suggest that the intensity of fluorescence observed in the IgM-IFT, as an indicator of IgM antibody levels, could not be an useful seroepidemiological marker for classifying areas of low endemicity according to degrees of infection.

Test de sobrecarga acuosa y manometría de alta resolución para valoración de la resistencia al flujo esófago-gástrico en paciente s con acalasia

La manometría convencional es el “gold standard” para diagnosticar trastornos motores del esófago, pero la información que da sobre la repercusión funcional de estas alteraciones es escasa. La manometría de alta resolución permite estudiar con detalle la motilidad esofagogástrica mediante la generación de mapas topográficos de presiones desde la orofaringe hasta el estómago. Hipótesis: Si la generación de mapas topográficos de presiones en el esófago mediante manometría de alta resolución demuestra la resistencia al flujo esofagogástrico. Objetivo: Comprobar si un test con sobrecarga de agua puede mostrar la presencia de resistencia al flujo esofagogástrico en pacientes con acalasia. Método: Estudiamos 2 grupos de pacientes con alteración de la motilidad esofágica. Un grupo de 8 pacientes que cumplen criterios manométricos de acalasia y, como grupo control, 8 pacientes con disfunción del peristaltismo esofágico ( DPE). A cada paciente se le realizó un test de sobrecarga que consistía en la ingesta rápida de 200 ml de agua mientras se registraban las presiones esofágicas. Resultados: Los pacientes con acalasia ingirieron el agua más lentamente que los pacientes con DPE (82± 14 seg vs 34± 6 seg, p&0,05). Mientras la unión gastroesofágica (UGE) permaneció contraída en el grupo de pacientes con acalasia (46,6± 6 mm Hg; p&0,05), permaneció relajada durante el tiempo del ingesta en pacientes con DPE ( 16,6 ± 4,7 mm Hg). La unión esófago-gástrica (UGE) experimentó una migración proximal en pacientes con acalasia de 1,3 ± 0 cm mientras que en el grupo control no migró (0 cm; p&0,05). La ingesta de agua se asoció a un incremento de la presión del esófago distal (2 cm por encima de la UGE) significativamente mayor en los pacientes con acalasia que en los pacientes con DPE (42,2 ± 20 vs 9,5± 7,9 mm Hg respectivamente, p&0,05) lo que produjo un incremento del gradiente de presión esófago-gástrico en pacientes con acalasia (16± 0,9 mmHg) que no se observó en los pacientes con DPE (0,1 ± 0,4 mmHg ; p&0,05). Conclusión: Un test con sobrecarga de agua durante la medición de la topografía y de las presiones esofágicas demuestra obstrucción al flujo esofagogástrico en los pacientes con acalasia. Este test podría contribuir a valorar la repercusión funcional en pacientes con acalasia y podría servir para el seguimiento de pacientes con acalasia tratados.

Immunogenicity test of tetanus component in adsorbed vaccines by toxin binding inhibition test

Samples from 20 lots of diphtheria-tetanus (adult use dT) vaccine and from 20 lots of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine were used to standardize and validate the in vitro toxin binding inhibition (ToBI) test for the immunogenicity test of the tetanus component. The levels of tetanus antitoxin obtained by ToBI test were compared to those obtained using the toxin neutralization (TN) test in mice routinely employed to perform the quality control of the tetanus component in adsorbed vaccines. The results ranged from 1.8 to 3.5 IU/ml for dT and 2 to 4 IU/ml for DTP by ToBI test and 1.4 to 3 IU/ml for dT and 1.8 to 3.5 IU/ml for DTP by TN in mice. These results were significantly correlated. From this study, it is concluded that the ToBI test is an alternative to the in vivo neutralization procedure in the immunogenicity test of the tetanus component in adsorbed vaccines. A substantial refinement and a reduction in use of animals can be achieved.

Evaluation of the direct agglutination test and the rK39 dipstick test for the sero-diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis

The direct agglutination test (DAT) based on a freeze-dried antigen and the rK39 dipstick test were evaluated for the sero-diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The sensitivity and specificity of both tests were determined using sera from confirmed VL patients (n = 21), healthy controls (n = 19) and from patients with other confirmed infectious diseases (n = 42). The DAT had a sensitivity and a specificity of 100%. The rK39 had a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 82%. Both tests were also used to screen blood samples of confirmed VL patients (n = 15) and serum samples of VL suspects (n = 61). The DAT found all blood samples of confirmed VL patients positive and tested 98.4% of the serum samples of the VL suspects positive. In contrast, rK39 detected in 9/15 blood samples (60%) antibodies against Leishmania chagasi and found 85.3% of the serum samples of the suspected patients positive. Although the rK39 dipstick is more rapid and user friendlier than the DAT, the latter has a superior sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, the reagents used for DAT do not require cold storage, whereas the buffer of the rK39 must be stored at 4ºC. Therefore, the DAT is the most suitable test for the sero-diagnosis of VL under field conditions.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Comparison of the clientele of an anonymous HIV test centre and persons tested in the general population.

This study compares the clientele of a Swiss anonymous test centre with the general population tested. Information was obtained through similar questionnaires submitted to two samples of HIV-tested people aged from 17 to 45 years: the first administered in the context of a general population telephone survey (n = 245) and the second completed during face-to-face interviews of the clientele of an anonymous test centre (n = 250). The test centre sample has higher proportions of younger and single people. Attenders for anonymous testing were more likely to have acquired a new regular partner during the year preceding the interview (48.0% versus 14.4%). These differences remain when controlling for age and gender. Decision to test comes mostly from the respondent's own initiative, but suggestion from a doctor is more frequent in the general population (23.8% versus 0.8%), whereas suggestion from partner or friends is more frequent in the anonymous centre (44.4% versus 3.0%). The anonymous test centre clientele is not different from the general population tested except for the relational situation and origin of decision for testing. The test centre has become a place where the general population finds a response to a situation-specific need for HIV testing.