Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

How can packaging change children's eating habits from un-healthy food towards healthier options?

Field Lab: Children consumer behaviour

Changes in population and land use over time in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper draws upon a detailed longitudinal survey of households living on agricultural plots in the northern three provinces of the Ecuadorian Amazon, the principal region of colonization by migrants in Ecuador since the 1970s. Following the discovery of petroleum in 1967 near what has subsequently come to be the provincial capital and largest Amazonian city of Lago Agrio, oil companies built roads to lay pipelines to extract and pump oil across the Andes for export. As a result, for the past 30 years over half of both Ecuador's export earnings and government revenues have come from petroleum extracted from this region. But the roads also facilitated massive spontaneous in-migration of families from origin areas in the Ecuadorian Sierra, characterized by minifundia and rural poverty. This paper is about those migrants and their effects on the Amazonian landscape. We discuss the data collection methodology and summarize key results on settler characteristics and changes in population, land use, land ownership, technology, labor allocation, and living conditions, as well as the relationships between changes in population and changes in land use over time. The population in the study region has been growing rapidly due to both natural population growth (high fertility) and in-migration. This has led to a dramatic process of subdivision and fragmentation of plots in the 1990's, which contrasts with the consolidation of plots that has occurred in most of the mature frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon. This fragmentation has led to important changes in land tenure and land use, deforestation, cattle raising, labor allocation, and settler welfare.

The appraisal of anaerobic digestion in Ireland to develop improved designs and operational practice

Mesophilic Anaerobic Digestion treating sewage sludge was investigated at five full-scale sewage treatment plants in Ireland. The anaerobic digestion plants are compared and evaluated in terms of design, equipment, operation, monitoring and management. All digesters are cylindrical, gas mixed and heated Continuously Stirred Tank Reactors (CSTR), varying in size from 130m3 to 800m3. Heat exchanger systems heat all digesters. Three plants reported difficulties with the heating systems ranging from blockages to insufficient insulation and design. Exchangers were modified and replaced within one year of operation at two plants. All but one plant had Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems installed. Parameter monitoring is a problem at all plants mainly due to a lack of staff and knowledge. The plant operators consider pH and temperature the most important parameters to be measured in terms of successful monitoring of an anaerobic digester. The short time taken and the ease at which pH and temperature can be measured may favour these parameters. Three laboratory scale pilot anaerobic digesters were operated using a variety of feeds over at 144-day period. Two of the pilots were unmixed and the third was mechanically mixed. As expected the unmixed reactors removed more COD by retention of solids in the digesters but also produced greater quantities of biogas than the mixed digester, especially when low solids feed such as whey was used. The mixed digester broke down more solids due to the superior contact between the substrate and the biomass. All three reactors showed good performance results for whey and sewage solids. Scum formation occurred giving operational problems for mixed and unmixed reactors when cattle slurry was used as the main feed source. The pilot test was also used to investigate which parameters were the best indicators of process instability. These trials clearly indicated that total Volatile Fatty Acid (VFA) concentrations was the best parameter to show signs of early process imbalance, while methane composition in the biogas was good to indicate possible nutrient deficiencies in the feed and oxygen shocks. pH was found to be a good process parameter only if the wastewater being treated produced low bicarbonate alkalinities during treatment.

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Different Areas of Health Care Over a 20-Year Period

Background:Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. Knowledge about cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in young adults and their modification over time are measures that change the risks and prevent CVDs.Objectives:To determine the presence of CVRFs and their changes in different health care professionals over a period of 20 years.Methods:All students of medicine, nursing, nutrition, odontology, and pharmacy departments of Federal University of Goiás who agreed to participate in this study were evaluated when they started their degree courses and 20 years afterward. Questionnaires on CVRFs [systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and family history of early CVD, smoking, alcohol consumption, and sedentarism] were administered. Cholesterol levels, blood sugar levels, blood pressure, weight, height, and body mass index were determined. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate distribution, the chi-square test was used to compare different courses and sexes, and the McNemar test was used for comparing CVRFs. The significance level was set at a p value of < 0.05.Results:The first stage of the study included 281 individuals (91% of all the students), of which 62.9% were women; the mean age was 19.7 years. In the second stage, 215 subjects were reassessed (76% of the initial sample), of which 59.07% were women; the mean age was 39.8 years. The sample mostly consisted of medical students (with a predominance of men), followed by nursing, nutrition, and pharmacy students, with a predominance of women (p < 0.05). Excessive weight gain, SAH, and dyslipidemia were observed among physicians and dentists (p < 0.05). Excessive weight gain and SAH and a reduction in sedentarism (p < 0.05) were observed among pharmacists. Among nurses there was an increase in excessive weight and alcohol consumption (p < 0.05). Finally, nutritionists showed an increase in dyslipidemia (p < 0.05).Conclusion:In general, there was an unfavorable progression of CVRFs in the population under study, despite it having adequate specialized knowledge about these risk factors.

Assessing the structural change of strategic mobility: determinants under hypercompetitive environments

The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.

Auctions for government securities: a laboratory comparison of uniform, discriminatory and spanish designs

The Bank of Spain uses a unique auction format to sell government bonds, which can be seen as a hybrid of a uniform and a discriminatory auction. For winning bids above the average winning bid, buyers are charged the average winning bid, otherwise they pay their respective bids. We report on an experiment that compares this auction format to the discriminatory format, used in most other countries, and to the uniform format. Our design is based on a common value model with multi-unit supply and two-unit demand. The results show significantly higher revenue with the Spanish and the uniform formats than with the discriminatory one, while volatility of prices over time is significantly lower in the discriminatory format than in the Spanish and uniform cases. Actual price dispersion is significantly larger in the discriminatory than in the Spanish. Our data also exhibit the use of bid-spreading strategies in all three designs.

Thickening of phase change materials (PCM) to avoid segregation

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a Çukurova University, Turquia, al juliol del 2006. L’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica ha atret interès en aplicacions tèrmiques com l’aigua calenta, la calefacció i l’aire condicionat. Aquests sistemes són útils per corregir la no coincidència entre la oferta i la demanda d’energia. Principalment hi ha dos tipus de sistemes d’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica, emmagatzematge amb calor sensible i amb calor latent. L’emmagatzematge amb calor latent és particularment atractiu degut a la seva habilitat de donar una densitat d’emmagatzematge d’energia més alt i la seva característica d’emmagatzemar calor a una temperatura constant corresponent a la temperatura de transició de fase de la substància emmagatzemadora de calor. Les salts hidratades orgàniques tenen certes avantatges com a materials d’emmagatzematge de calor latent sobre els materials orgànics. En canvi, quan les salts hidratades s’utilitzen com a materials de canvi de fase (PCM) apareixen alguns problemes en les aplicacions d’emmagatzematge de calor latent. Aquests són el subrefredament de les salts hidratades quan es congelen degut a les seves dèbils propietats de nucleació, i la separació de fase que hi apareix degut a una fusió incongruent. En aquest estudi, s’estabilitza sal de Glauber (Na2SO4.10H2O) amb diferents concentracions de poliacrilamida i gelatina per prevenir la fusió incongruent. Per prevenir el subrefredament s’utilitza un agent nucleant amb una estructura cristal•lina semblant a la de la sal de Glauber. La capacitat d’emmagatzematge de calor de les mostres de PCM estabilitzades amb diferents concentracions de gels polimèrics es determinen amb DCS i amb el mètode T-history.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit

This paper examines the optimal design of climate change policies in the context where governments want to encourage the private sector to undertake significant immediate investment in developing cleaner technologies, but the carbon taxes and other environmental policies that could in principle stimulate such investment will be imposed over a very long future. The conventional claim by environmental economists is that environmental policies alone are sufficient to induce firms to undertake optimal investment. However this argument requires governments to be able to commit to these future taxes, and it is far from clear that governments have this degree of commitment. We assume instead that governments cannot commit, and so both they and the private sector have to contemplate the possibility of there being governments in power in the future that give different (relative) weights to the environment. We show that this lack of commitment has a significant asymmetric effect. Compared to the situation where governments can commit it increases the incentive of the current government to have the investment undertaken, but reduces the incentive of the private sector to invest. Consequently governments may need to use additional policy instruments – such as R&D subsidies – to stimulate the required investment.

Policy Shocks and Contract Renegotiation: Who Gets Raked Over the Coals?

Changes in climate policy have large influence on businesses. Firms anticipate and respond to such changes, but what if they have already engaged in a longterm relationship with other firms or customers at the time of policy change? For example, coal supply to power stations is typically based on long-term contracts, while the nature of the buyer-supplier relationship may well be affected substantially by climate regulations. However, there has been little evidence on whether or how firms amend their contractual agreements in response to a change in policy.

Response of photosynthetic organisms to global change: an approach based on marker pigments

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Department of Freshwater Ecology, National Environmetal Research Institute, Denmark, from 2006 to 2008. The main objective of the project was to reconstruct photosynthetic organism community composition using pigmentbased methods and to study their response to natural (e.g. climate) or anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) perturbations that took place in the system over time. We performed a study in different locations and at different temporal scales. We analysed the pigment composition in a short sediment record (46 cm sediment depth) of a volcanic lake (Lake Furnas) in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal). The lake has been affected during the last century by successive fish introductions. The specific objective was to reconstruct the lake’s trophic state history and to assess the role of land-use, climate and fish introductions in structuring the lake community. Results obtained suggested that whereas trophic cascade and changes in nutrient concentrations have some clear effects on algal and microbial assemblages, interpreting the effects of changes in climate are not straightforward. This is probably related with the rather constant precipitation in the Azores Islands during the studied period. We also analysed the pigment composition in a long sediment record (1800 cm sediment depth) of Lake Aborre (Denmark) covering ca. 8kyr of lake history. The specific objective was to describe changes in lake primary production and lake trophic state over the Holocene and to determine the photosynthetic organisms involved. Results suggested that external forcing (i.e. land use changes) was responsible of erosion and nutrient run off to the lake that contributed to the reported changes in lake primary production along most of the Holocene.

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.

Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.