968 resultados para Chance.


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In his visit to the G20 in Brisbane, President Barack Obama sought to promote his ambitious Pacific Rim trade agreement — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He told an audience at the University of Queensland: We’ll keep leading the effort to realize the Trans-Pacific Partnership to lower barriers, open markets, export goods, and create good jobs for our people. But with the 12 countries of the TPP making up nearly 40 percent of the global economy, this is also about something bigger. It is our chance to put in place new, high standards for trade in the 21st century that uphold our values. So, for example, we are pushing new standards in this trade agreement, requiring countries that participate to protect their workers better and to protect the environment better, and protect intellectual property that unleashes innovation, and baseline standards to ensure transparency and rule of law.

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"4,400 people die every day of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. Treatment exists. In about 60 days, a patient can go from here to here. We call this transformation the Lazarus Effect. It is the result of two pills a day taken by a HIV/AIDS patient for about 60 days. Learn more about how you can help give people the chance of life and joinred.com."The Lazarus Effect video, the (RED) Campaign.This Chapter explores how a number of non-government organizations, charities, and philanthropists have promoted ’grants' as a means of stimulating investment in research and development into neglected diseases. Each section considers the nature of the campaign; the use of intellectual property rights, such as trade marks; and the criticisms made of such endeavors. Section 2 looks at the (RED) Campaign, which is designed to boost corporate funding and consumer support for the Global Fund. Section 3 examines the role of the Gates Foundation in funding research and development in respect of infectious diseases. It explores the championing by Bill Gates of ’creative capitalism'. Section 4 considers the part of the Clinton Foundation in the debate over access to essential medicines. The Chapter concludes that, despite their qualities, such marketing initiatives fail to address the underlying inequalities and injustices of international patent law.

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Purpose Director selection is an important yet under-researched topic. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to extant literature by gaining a greater understanding into how and why new board members are recruited. Design/methodology/approach This exploratory study uses in-depth interviews with Australian non-executive directors to identify what selection criteria are deemed most important when selecting new director candidates and how selection practices vary between organisations. Findings The findings indicate that appointments to the board are based on two key attributes: first, the candidates’ ability to contribute complementary skills and second, the candidates’ ability to work well with the existing board. Despite commonality in these broad criteria, board selection approaches vary considerably between organisations. As a result, some boards do not adequately assess both criteria when appointing a new director hence increasing the chance of a mis-fit between the position and the appointed director. Research limitations/implications The study highlights the importance of both individual technical capabilities and social compatibility in director selections. The authors introduce a new perspective through which future research may consider director selection: fit. Originality/value The in-depth analysis of the director selection process highlights some less obvious and more nuanced issues surrounding directors’ appointment to the board. Recurrent patterns indicate the need for both technical and social considerations. Hence the study is a first step in synthesising the current literature and illustrates the need for a multi-theoretical approach in future director selection research.

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Human expert analyses are commonly used in bioacoustic studies and can potentially limit the reproducibility of these results. In this paper, a machine learning method is presented to statistically classify avian vocalizations. Automated approaches were applied to isolate bird songs from long field recordings, assess song similarities, and classify songs into distinct variants. Because no positive controls were available to assess the true classification of variants, multiple replicates of automatic classification of song variants were analyzed to investigate clustering uncertainty. The automatic classifications were more similar to the expert classifications than expected by chance. Application of these methods demonstrated the presence of discrete song variants in an island population of the New Zealand hihi (Notiomystis cincta). The geographic patterns of song variation were then revealed by integrating over classification replicates. Because this automated approach considers variation in song variant classification, it reduces potential human bias and facilitates the reproducibility of the results.

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This paper continues the conversation from recent articles examining potential remedies available for incorrect decisions by sports officials. In particular, this article focuses on bringing an action against an official in negligence for pure economic loss. Using precedent cases, it determines that such an action would have a low chance of success, as a duty of care would be difficult to establish. Even if that could be overcome, an aggrieved player or team would still face further hurdles at the stages of breach, causation and defences. The article concludes by proposing some options to further reduce the small risk of liability to officials.

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Objective - To determine the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in the Fula ethnic group in The Gambia, and relate the disease prevalence to the B27 frequency and subtype distribution of that population. Methods - 215 first degree relatives of 48 B27 positive Fula twin pairs, and 900 adult Fula males were screened for ankylosing spondylitis by clinical and, where appropriate, radiographic means. The B27 prevalence was determined by PCR/sequence specific oligonucleotides on finger prick samples from 100 unrelated Fula, and B27 subtype distribution by SSCP on unrelated B27 positive individuals. This data were then compared with the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis among B27 positive Caucasians. Results - No case of ankylosing spondylitis was seen. Six per cent of Fula are B27 positive, of which 32% are B*2703 and 68% B*2705. Assuming the penetrance of ankylosing spondylitis in B27 positive Fula is the same as in B27 positive Caucasians, the probability of not observing any cases of ankylosing spondylitis among the Fula examined is remote (P = 6.7 x 10-6). Similarly, the chance of not seeing any cases among those expected to be either B*2705 or B*2703 was small (P = 3.2 x 10-4 for B*2705, and P = 0.02 for B*2703). Conclusions - The risk of developing ankylosing spondylitis in B27 positive Fula is lower than in B27 positive Caucasians. This is not explained by the B27 subtype distribution among Fula, and suggests the presence of some non-B27 protective factor reducing the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in this population.

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By the time students reach the middle years they have experienced many chance activities based on dice. Common among these are rolling one die to explore the relationship of frequency and theoretical probability, and rolling two dice and summing the outcomes to consider their probabilities. Although dice may be considered overused by some, the advantage they offer is a familiar context within which to explore much more complex concepts. If the basic chance mechanism of the device is understood, it is possible to enter quickly into an arena of more complex concepts. This is what happened with a two hour activity engaged in by four classes of Grade 6 students in the same school. The activity targeted the concepts of variation and expectation. The teachers held extended discussions with their classes on variation and expectation at the beginning of the activity, with students contributing examples of the two concepts from their own experience. These notions are quite sophisticated for Grade 6, but the underlying concepts describe phenomena that students encounter every day. For example, time varies continuously; sporting results vary from game to game; the maximum temperature varies from day to day. However, there is an expectation about tomorrow’s maximum temperature based on the expert advice from the weather bureau. There may also be an expectation about a sporting result based on the participants’ previous results. It is this juxtaposition that makes life interesting. Variation hence describes the differences we see in phenomena around us. In a scenario displaying variation, expectation describes the effort to characterise or summarise the variation and perhaps make a prediction about the message arising from the scenario. The explicit purpose of the activity described here was to use the familiar scenario of rolling a die to expose these two concepts. Because the students had previously experienced rolling physical dice they knew instinctively about the variation that occurs across many rolls and about the theoretical expectation that each side should “come up” one-sixth of the time. They had observed the instances of the concepts in action, but had not consolidated the underlying terminology to describe it. As the two concepts are so fundamental to understanding statistics, we felt it would be useful to begin building in the familiar environment of rolling a die. Because hand-held dice limit the explorations students can undertake, the classes used the soft-ware TinkerPlots (Konold & Miller, 2011) to simulate rolling a die multiple times.

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STUDY QUESTION Can the number of oocytes retrieved in IVF cycles be predictive of the age at menopause? SUMMARY ANSWER The number of retrieved oocytes can be used as an indirect assessment of the extent of ovarian reserve to provide information on the duration of the reproductive life span in women of different ages. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Menopause is determined by the exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. Ovarian reserve is the main factor influencing ovarian response in IVF cycles. As a consequence the response to ovarian stimulation with the administration of gonadotrophins in IVF treatment may be informative about the age at menopause. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION In the present cross-sectional study, participants were 1585 infertile women from an IVF clinic and 2635 menopausal women from a more general population. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS For all infertile women, the response to ovarian stimulation with gonadotrophins was recorded. For menopausal women, relevant demographic characteristics were available for the analysis. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE A cubic function described the relationship between mean numbers of oocytes and age, with all terms being statistically significant. From the estimated residual distribution of the actual number of oocytes about this mean, a distribution of the age when there would be no oocytes retrieved following ovarian stimulation was derived. This was compared with the distribution of the age at menopause from the menopausal women, showing that menopause occurred about a year later. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The retrieved oocyte data were from infertile women, while the menopausal ages were from a more general population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS In the present study, we have shown some similarity between the distributions of the age when no retrieved oocytes can be expected after ovarian stimulation and the age at menopause. For a given age, the lower the ovarian reserve, the lower the number of retrieved oocytes would be and the earlier the age that menopause would occur.

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Antibodies to LH/chorionic gonadotrophin receptor (LH/CG-R; molecular weight 67 000), isolated in a homogenous state (established by SDS-PAGE and ligand blotting) from sheep luteal membrane using human CG (hCG)-Sepharose affinity chromatography, were raised in three adult male rabbits (R-I, R-II and R-III). Each of the rabbits received 20-30 mu g oi the purified receptor in Freund's complete adjuvant at a time. Primary immunization was followed by booster injection at intervals. Production of receptor antibodies was monitored by (1) determining the dilution of the serum (IgG fraction) that could specifically bind 50% of I-125-LH/CG-R added and (2) analysing sera for any chance in testosterone levels. Following primary immunization and the first booster, all three rabbits exhibited a 2.5- to 6.0-fold increase in serum testosterone over basal levels and this effect was spread over a period of time (similar to 40 days) coinciding with the rise and fall of receptor antibodies. The maximal antibody titre (ED(50)) produced at this time ranged from 1:350 to 1:100 to below detectable limits for R-I, R-II and R-III respectively. Subsequent immunizations followed by the second booster resulted in a substantial increase in antibody titre (ED(50) of 1:5000) in R-I, but this was not accompanied by any change in serum testosterone over preimmune levels, suggesting that with the progress of immunization the character of the antibody produced had also changed. Two pools of antisera from R-I collected 10 days following the booster (at day 70 (bleed I) and day 290 (bleed II)) were used in further experiments. IgG isolated from bleed I but not from bleed II antiserum showed a dose-dependent stimulation of testosterone production by mouse Leydig cells in vitro, thus confirming the in vivo hormone-mimicking activity antibodies generated during the early immunization phase. The IgG fractions from both bleeds were, however, capable of inhibiting (1) I-125-hCG binding to crude sheep luteal membrane (EC(50) of 1:70 and 1:350 for bleed I and II antisera respectively) and (2) ovine LH-stimulated testosterone production by mouse Leydig cells in vitro, indicating the presence oi antagonistic antibodies irrespective of the period of time during which the rabbits were immunized. The: fact that bleed I-stimulated testosterone production could be inhibited in a dose-dependent manner by the addition of IgG from bleed II to the mouse Leydig cell in vitro assay system showed that the agonistic activity is intrinsic to the bleed I antibody. The receptor antibody (bleed II) was also capable of blocking LH action in vivo, as rabbits passively (for 24 h with LH/CG-R antiserum) as well as actively (for 130 days) immunized against LH/CG-R failed to respond to a bolus injection of LH (50 mu g). At no time, however, was the serum testosterone reduced below the basal level. This study clearly shows that, unlike with LH antibody, attempts to achieve an LH deficiency effect in vivo by resorting to immunization with hole LH receptor is difficult, as receptor antibodies exhibit both hormone-mimicking (agonistic) as well as hormone-blocking (antagonistic) activities.

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Recognizing similarities and deriving relationships among protein molecules is a fundamental requirement in present-day biology. Similarities can be present at various levels which can be detected through comparison of protein sequences or their structural folds. In some cases similarities obscure at these levels could be present merely in the substructures at their binding sites. Inferring functional similarities between protein molecules by comparing their binding sites is still largely exploratory and not as yet a routine protocol. One of the main reasons for this is the limitation in the choice of appropriate analytical tools that can compare binding sites with high sensitivity. To benefit from the enormous amount of structural data that is being rapidly accumulated, it is essential to have high throughput tools that enable large scale binding site comparison. Results: Here we present a new algorithm PocketMatch for comparison of binding sites in a frame invariant manner. Each binding site is represented by 90 lists of sorted distances capturing shape and chemical nature of the site. The sorted arrays are then aligned using an incremental alignment method and scored to obtain PMScores for pairs of sites. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis and an extensive validation of the algorithm have been carried out. A comparison with other site matching algorithms is also presented. Perturbation studies where the geometry of a given site was retained but the residue types were changed randomly, indicated that chance similarities were virtually non-existent. Our analysis also demonstrates that shape information alone is insufficient to discriminate between diverse binding sites, unless combined with chemical nature of amino acids. Conclusion: A new algorithm has been developed to compare binding sites in accurate, efficient and high-throughput manner. Though the representation used is conceptually simplistic, we demonstrate that along with the new alignment strategy used, it is sufficient to enable binding comparison with high sensitivity. Novel methodology has also been presented for validating the algorithm for accuracy and sensitivity with respect to geometry and chemical nature of the site. The method is also fast and takes about 1/250(th) second for one comparison on a single processor. A parallel version on BlueGene has also been implemented.

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A common theme in many accounts of road safety and road use in low and middle income countries is a widespread lack of compliance with traffic laws and related legislation. A key element of the success of road crash prevention strategies in high income countries has been the achievement of safer road user behaviour through compliance with traffic laws. Deterrence-based approaches such as speed cameras and random breath testing, which rely on drivers making an assessment that they are likely to be caught if they offend, have been very effective in this regard. However, the long term success of (for example) drink driving legislation has been supported by drivers adopting a moral approach to compliance rather than relying solely on the intensity of police operations. For low and middle income countries such morally based compliance is important, since levels of police resourcing are typically much lower than in Western countries. In the absence of morally based compliance, it is arguable that the patterns of behaviours observed in low and middle income countries can be described as "pragmatic driving": compliance only when there is a high chance of being detected and fined, or where a crash might occur. The potential characteristics of pragmatic driving in the macro-, meso- and micro-context of driving and the enforcement approach that could address it are outlined, with reference to the limited existing information available.

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Objectives Funding for early career researchers in Australia's largest medical research funding scheme is determined by a competitive peer-review process using a panel of four reviewers. The purpose of this experiment was to appraise the reliability of funding by duplicating applications that were considered by separate grant review panels. Study Design and Methods Sixty duplicate applications were considered by two independent grant review panels that were awarding funding for Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council. Panel members were blinded to which applications were included in the experiment and to whether it was the original or duplicate application. Scores were compared across panels using Bland–Altman plots to determine measures of agreement, including whether agreement would have impacted on actual funding. Results Twenty-three percent of the applicants were funded by both panels and 60 percent were not funded by both, giving an overall agreement of 83 percent [95% confidence interval (CI): 73%, 92%]. The chance-adjusted agreement was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.92). Conclusion There was a comparatively high level of agreement when compared with other types of funding schemes. Further experimental research could be used to determine if this higher agreement is due to nature of the application, the composition of the assessment panel, or the characteristics of the applicants.

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The literature contains many examples of digital procedures for the analytical treatment of electroencephalograms, but there is as yet no standard by which those techniques may be judged or compared. This paper proposes one method of generating an EEG, based on a computer program for Zetterberg's simulation. It is assumed that the statistical properties of an EEG may be represented by stationary processes having rational transfer functions and achieved by a system of software fillers and random number generators.The model represents neither the neurological mechanism response for generating the EEG, nor any particular type of EEG record; transient phenomena such as spikes, sharp waves and alpha bursts also are excluded. The basis of the program is a valid ‘partial’ statistical description of the EEG; that description is then used to produce a digital representation of a signal which if plotted sequentially, might or might not by chance resemble an EEG, that is unimportant. What is important is that the statistical properties of the series remain those of a real EEG; it is in this sense that the output is a simulation of the EEG. There is considerable flexibility in the form of the output, i.e. its alpha, beta and delta content, which may be selected by the user, the same selected parameters always producing the same statistical output. The filtered outputs from the random number sequences may be scaled to provide realistic power distributions in the accepted EEG frequency bands and then summed to create a digital output signal, the ‘stationary EEG’. It is suggested that the simulator might act as a test input to digital analytical techniques for the EEG, a simulator which would enable at least a substantial part of those techniques to be compared and assessed in an objective manner. The equations necessary to implement the model are given. The program has been run on a DEC1090 computer but is suitable for any microcomputer having more than 32 kBytes of memory; the execution time required to generate a 25 s simulated EEG is in the region of 15 s.

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The aims of this study were to investigate outcome and to evaluate areas of potential ongoing concern after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in children. Actuarial survival in relation to age and degree of undernutrition at the time of OLT was evaluated in 53 children (age 0.58-14.2 years) undergoing OLT for endstage liver disease. Follow-up studies of growth and quality of life were undertaken in those with a minimum follow-up period of 12 months (n = 26). The overall 3 year actuarial survival was 70%. Survival rates did not differ between age groups (actuarial 2 year survival for ages <1, 1-5 and >5 years were 70, 70 and 69% respectively) but did differ according to nutritional status at OLT (actuarial 2 year survival for children with Z scores for weight <-1 was 57%, >-1 was 95%; P = 0.004). Significant catch-up weight gain was observed by 18 months post-transplant, while height improved less rapidly. Quality of life (assessed by Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scales incorporating socialization, daily living skills, communication and motor skills) was good (mean composite score 91 ± 19). All school-aged children except one were attending normal school. Two children had mild to moderate intellectual handicap related to post-operative intracerebral complications. Satisfactory long-term survival can be achieved after OLT in children regardless of age but the importance of pre-operative nutrition is emphasized. Survivors have an excellent chance of a good quality of life and of satisfactory catch-up weight gain and growth.

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Russian Karelians were one of the small peasant nations of the Russian Empire that began to identify themselves as nations during the late imperial period. At that historical moment Russian Karelia fell between an economically undeveloped empire and the rapidly modernizing borderland of Finland. The economic and cultural lure of Finland drew Karelians into the Finnish camp. This attraction was seen as a challenge to Russia and influenced the straggle between Russia and Finland for the Karelians. This struggle was waged from 1905 to 1917. This work is focused on the beginning stage of the struggle, its various phases, and their results. The confrontation extended into different dimensions (economic, political, ideological, church and cultural politics) and occurred on two levels: central and regional. Countermeasures against local nationalisms developed much earlier both in Russia and in other empires for use were also used in the Russian Karelian case. Economic policies were deployed to try to make relations with Russia more alluring for Karelians and to improve their economic condition. However, these efforts produced only minimal results due to the economic weakness of the empire and a lack of finances. Fear of the economic integration of the Karelians and Finns, which would have stimulated the economy of the Karelia, also hindered these attempts. The further development of the Orthodox Church, the schools and the zemstvos in Karelia yielded fewer results than expected due to the economic underdevelopment of the region and the avoidance of the Finnish language. Policizing measures were the most successfull, as all activities in Russian Karelia by the Finns were entirely halted in practice. However, the aspiration of Russian Karelians to integrate their home districts with Finland remained a latent force that just waited for an opportunity to push to the surface again. Such a chance materialized with the Russian revolution. The Karelian question was also a part of Russian domestic political confrontation. At the and of the 1800s, the Russian nationalist right had grown strong and increasingly gained the favor of the autocracy. The right political forces exploited the Karelian question in its anti-Finnish ideology and in its general resistance to the national emancipation of the minority peoples of Russia. A separate ideology was developed, focusing on the closeness of Karelians to the "great Russian people." Simultaneously, this concept found a place in the ultramonarchist myth of the particularly close connection between the people and tsar that was prominent in the era of Nicholas II. This myth assigned the Karelians a place amongst the "simple people" faithful to the tsar.