505 resultados para Catastrophic Misinterpretation


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How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

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This paper assesses the status of pre-disaster risk management in the case of Turkey. By focusing on the period following the catastrophic August 17, 1999 earthquake, the study benefits from USAID’s Disaster Risk Management Benchmarking Tool (DRMBT). In line with the benchmarking tool, the paper covers key developments in the four components of pre-disaster risk management, namely: risk identification, risk mitigation, risk transfer and disaster preparedness. In the end, it will present three major conclusions: (i) Although post-1999 Turkey has made some important progress in the pre-disaster phase of DRM, particularly with the enactment of obligatory earthquake insurance and tightened standards for building construction, the country is far away from substantial levels of success in DRM. (ii) In recent years, local governments have had been given more authority in the realm of DRM, however, Turkey’s approach to DRM is still predominantly centralized at the expense of successful DRM practices at the local level. (iii) While the devastating 1999 earthquake has resulted in advances in the pre-disaster components of DRM; progress has been mostly in the realm of earthquakes. Turkey’s other major disasters (landslides, floods, wild fires i.e.) also require similar attention by local and central authorities.

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Twenty-four manganese nodules from the surface of the sea floor and fifteen buried nodules were studied. With three exceptions, the nodules were collected from the area covered by Valdivia Cruise VA 04 some 1200 nautical miles southeast of Hawaii. Age determinations were made using the ionium method. In order to get a true reproduction of the activity distribution in the nodules, they were cut in half and placed for one month on nuclear emulsion plates to determine the alpha-activity of the ionium and its daughter products. Special methods of counting the alpha-tracks resolution to depth intervals of 0.125 mm. For the first time it was possible to resolve zones of rapid growth (impulse growth) with growth rates, s > 50 mm/106 yr and interruptions in growth. With few exceptions the average rate of growth of all nodules was surprisingly uniform at 4-9 mm/10 yr. No growth could be recognized radioactively in the buried nodules. One exceptional nodule has had recent impulse growth and, in the material formed, the ionium is not yet in equilibrium with its daughter products. Individual layers in one nodule from the Indian Ocean could be dated and an average time interval of t = 2600±400 yr was necessary to form one layer. The alternation between iron and manganese-rich parts of the nodules was made visible by colour differences resulting from special treatment of cut surfaces with HCl vapour. The zones of slow growth of one nodule are relatively enriched in iron. Earlier attempts to find paleomagnetic reversals in manganese nodules have been continued. Despite considerable improvement in areal resolution, reversals were not detected in the nodules studied. Comparisons of the surface structure, microstructure in section and the radiometric dating show that there are erosion surfaces and growth surfaces on the outer surfaces of the manganese nodules. The formation of cracks in the nodules was studied in particular. The model of age-dependent nodule shrinkage and cracking surprisingly indicates that the nodules break after exceeding a certain age and/or size. Consequently, the breaking apart of manganese nodules is a continuous process not of catastrophic or discontinuous origin. The microstructure of the nodules exhibits differences in the mechanism of accretion and accretion rate of material, shortly referred to as accretion form. Thus non-directional growth inside the nodules as well as a directional growth may be observed. Those nodules with large accretion forms have grown faster than smaller ones. Consequently, parallel layers indicate slow growth. The upper surfaces of the nodules, protruding into the bottom water appear to be more prone to growth disturbances than the lower surfaces, immersed in the sediment. Features of some nodules show, that as they develop, they neither turned nor rolled. Yet unknown is the mechanism that keeps the nodules at the surface during continuous sedimentation. All in all, the nodules remain the objects of their own distinctive problems. The hope of using them as a kind of history book still seems to be very remote.

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The Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) was a large, dynamic ice sheet in the early Holocene. The glacial events through Hudson Strait leading to its eventual demise are recorded in the well-dated Labrador shelf core, MD99-2236 from the Cartwright Saddle. We develop a detailed history of the timing of ice-sheet discharge events from the Hudson Strait outlet of the LIS during the Holocene using high-resolution detrital carbonate, ice rafted detritus (IRD), d18O, and sediment color data. Eight detrital carbonate peaks (DCPs) associated with IRD peaks and light oxygen isotope events punctuate the MD99-2236 record between 11.5 and 8.0 ka. We use the stratigraphy of the DCPs developed from MD99-2236 to select the appropriate DeltaR to calibrate the ages of recorded glacial events in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait such that they match the DCPs in MD99-2236. We associate the eight DCPs with H0, Gold Cove advance, Noble Inlet advance, initial retreat of the Hudson Strait ice stream (HSIS) from Hudson Strait, opening of the Tyrrell Sea, and drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The opening of Foxe Channel and retreat of glacial ice from Foxe Basin are represented by a shoulder in the carbonate data. DeltaR of 350 years applied to the radiocarbon ages constraining glacial events H0 through the opening of the Tyrell Sea provided the best match with the MD99-2236 DCPs; DeltaR values and ages from the literature are used for the younger events. A very close age match was achieved between the 8.2 ka cold event in the Greenland ice cores, DCP7 (8.15 ka BP), and the drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. Our stratigraphic comparison between the DCPs in MD99-2236 and the calibrated ages of Hudson Strait/Bay deglacial events shows that the retreat of the HSIS, the opening of the Tyrell Sea, and the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at 8.2 ka are separate events that have been combined in previous estimates of the timing of the 8.2 ka event from marine records. SW Iceland shelf core MD99-2256 documents freshwater entrainment into the subpolar gyre from the Hudson Strait outlet via the Labrador, North Atlantic, and Irminger currents. The timing of freshwater release from the LIS Hudson Strait outlet in MD99-2236 matches evidence for freshwater forcing and LIS icebergs carrying foreign minerals to the SW Iceland shelf between 11.5 and 8.2 ka. The congruency of these records supports the conclusion of the entrainment of freshwater from the retreat of the LIS through Hudson Strait into the subpolar gyre and provides specific time periods when pulses of LIS freshwater were present to influence climate.

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Micro cracking during service is a critical problem in polymer structures and polymer composite materials. Self-healing materials are able to repair micro cracks, thus their preventing propagation and catastrophic failure of structural components. One of the self-healing approaches presented in the literature involves the use of solvents which react with the polymer. The objective of this research is to investigate a procedure to encapsulate solvents in halloysite nanotubes to promote self-healing ability in epoxy. Healing is triggered by crack propagation through embedded nanotubes in the polymer, which then release the liquid sovent into the crack plane. Two solvents were considered in this work: dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) and nitrobenzene. The nanotubes were coated using the layer-by-layer technique of oppositely charged polyelectrolytes: cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) and sodium polyacrylate. Solvent encapsulation was verified by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), analysis thermogravimetry (TGA), adsorption and desorption of nitrogen and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The introduction of the solvent DMSO into the cavity of the nanotubes was confirmed by the techniques employed. However, was not verified with nitrobenzene only promoted clay aggregation. The results suggest that the CTAB reacted with the halloystite to form a sealing layer on the surface of the nanotubes, thus encapsulating the solvent, while this was not verified using sodium polyacrylate.

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In oil and gas pipeline operations, the gas, oil, and water phases simultaneously move through pipe systems. The mixture cools as it flows through subsea pipelines, and forms a hydrate formation region, where the hydrate crystals start to grow and may eventually block the pipeline. The potential of pipe blockage due to hydrate formation is one of the most significant flow-assurance problems in deep-water subsea operations. Due to the catastrophic safety and economic implications of hydrate blockage, it is important to accurately predict the simultaneous flow of gas, water, and hydrate particles in flowlines. Currently, there are few or no studies that account for the simultaneous effects of hydrate growth and heat transfer on flow characteristics within pipelines. This thesis presents new and more accurate predictive models of multiphase flows in undersea pipelines to describe the simultaneous flow of gas, water, and hydrate particles through a pipeline. A growth rate model for the hydrate phase is presented and then used in the development of a new three-phase model. The conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy are formulated to describe the physical phenomena of momentum and heat transfer between the fluid and the wall. The governing equations are solved based on an analytical-numerical approach using a Newton-Raphson method for the nonlinear equations. An algorithm was developed in Matlab software to solve the equations from the inlet to the outlet of the pipeline. The developed models are validated against a single-phase model with mixture properties, and the results of comparative studies show close agreement. The new model predicts the volume fraction and velocity of each phase, as well as the mixture pressure and temperature profiles along the length of the pipeline. The results from the hydrate growth model reveal the growth rate and location where the initial hydrates start to form. Finally, to assess the impact of certain parameters on the flow characteristics, parametric studies have been conducted. The results show the effect of a variation in the pipe diameter, mass flow rate, inlet pressure, and inlet temperature on the flow characteristics and hydrate growth rates.

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Commercial exploitation and abrupt changes of the natural conditions may have severe impacts on the Arctic deep-sea ecosystem. The present recolonisation experiment mimicked a situation after a catastrophic disturbance (e.g. by turbidites caused by destabilized continental slopes after methane hydrate decomposition) and investigated if the recolonisation of a deep-sea habitat by meiobenthic organisms is fostered by variations innutrition and/or sediment structure. Two "Sediment Tray Free Vehicles" were deployed for one year in summer 2003 at 2500 m water depth in the Arctic deep-sea in the eastern Fram Strait. The recolonisation trays were filled with different artificial and natural sediment types (glass beads, sand, sediment mixture, pure deep-sea sediment) and were enriched with various types of food (algae, yeast, fish). After one year, meiobenthos abundances and various sediment related environmental parameters were investigated. Foraminifera were generally the most successful group: they dominated all treatments and accounted for about 87% of the total meiobenthos. Colonizing meiobenthos specimens were generally smaller compared to those in the surrounding deep-sea sediment, suggesting an active recolonisation by juveniles. Although experimental treatments with fine-grained, algae-enriched sediment showed abundances closest to natural conditions, the results suggest that food availability was the main determining factor for a successful recolonisation by meiobenthos and the structure of recolonised sediments was shown to have a subordinate influence.

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Over 30% of the Antarctic continental shelf is permanently covered by floating ice shelves, providing aphotic conditions for a depauperate fauna sustained by laterally advected food. In much of the remaining Antarctic shallows (<300 m depth), seasonal sea-ice melting allows a patchy primary production supporting rich megabenthic communities dominated by glass sponges (Porifera, Hexactinellida). The catastrophic collapse of ice shelves due to rapid regional warming along the Antarctic Peninsula in recent decades has exposed over 23,000 km**2 of seafloor to local primary production. The response of the benthos to this unprecedented flux of food is, however, still unknown. In 2007, 12 years after disintegration of the Larsen A ice shelf, a first biological survey interpreted the presence of hexactinellids as remnants of a former under-ice fauna with deep-sea characteristics. Four years later, we revisited the original transect, finding 2- and 3-fold increases in glass sponge biomass and abundance, respectively, after only two favorable growth periods. Our findings, along with other long-term studies, suggest that Antarctic hexactinellids, locked in arrested growth for decades, may undergo boom-and-bust cycles, allowing them to quickly colonize new habitats. The cues triggering growth and reproduction in Antarctic glass sponges remain enigmatic.

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Transects of a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) providing sea-bed videos and photographs were carried out during POLARSTERN expedition ANT-XIII/3 focussing on the ecology of benthic assemblages on the Antarctic shelf in the South-Eastern Weddell Sea. The ROV-system sprint 103 was equiped with two video- and one still camera, lights, flash-lights, compass, and parallel lasers providing a scale in the images, a tether-management system (TMS), a winch, and the board units. All cameras used the same main lense and could be tilted. Videos were recorded in Betacam-format and (film-)slides were made by decision of the scientific pilot. The latter were mainly made under the aspect to improve the identification of organisms depicted in the videos because the still photographs have a much higher optical resolution than the videos. In the photographs species larger than 3 mm, in the videos larger than 1 cm are recognisable and countable. Under optimum conditions the transects were strait; the speed and direction of the ROV were determined by the drift of the ship in the coastal current, since both, the ship and the ROV were used as a drifting system; the option to operate the vehicle actively was only used to avoide obstacles and to reach at best a distance of only approximately 30 cm to the sea-floor. As a consequence the width of the photographs in the foreground is approximately 50 cm. Deviations from this strategy resulted mainly from difficult ice- and weather conditions but also from high current velocity and local up-welling close to the sea-bed. The sea-bed images provide insights into the general composition of key species, higher systematic groups and ecological guilds. Within interdisciplinary approaches distributions of assemblages can be attributed to environmental conditions such as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, water masses and current regimes. The images also contain valuable information on how benthic species are associated to each other. Along the transects, small- to intermediate-scaled disturbances, e.g. by grounding icebergs were analysed and further impact to the entire benthic system by local succession of recolonisation was studied. This information can be used for models predicting the impact of climate change to benthic life in the Southern Ocean. All these approaches contribute to a better understanding of the fiunctioning of the benthic system and related components of the entire Antarctic marine ecosystem. Despite their scientific value the imaging methods meet concerns about the protection of sensitive Antarctic benthic systems since they are non-invasive and they also provide valuable material for education and outreach purposes.

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The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies (Boyle and Keigwin, 1987, doi:10.1038/330035a0), but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning (LeGrand and Wunsch, 1995, doi:10.1029/95PA01455). Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.

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Large scale disasters, such as the one caused by the Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated portions of the Philippines in 2013, or the catastrophic 2010 Haiti earthquake, which caused major damage in Port-au-Prince and other settlements in the region, have massive and lasting effects on populations. Nowadays, disasters can be considered as a consequence of inappropriately managed risk. These risks are the product of hazards and vulnerability, which refers to the extent to which a community can be affected by the impact of a hazard. In this way, developing countries, due to their greater vulnerability, suffer the highest costs when a disaster occurs. Disaster relief is a challenge for politics, economies, and societies worldwide. Humanitarian organizations face multiple decision problems when responding to disasters. In particular, once a disaster strikes, the distribution of humanitarian aid to the population affected is one of the most fundamental operations in what is called humanitarian logistics. This term is defined as the process of planning, implementing and controlling the effcient, cost-effective ow and storage of goods and materials as well as related information, from the point of origin to the point of consumption, for the purpose of meeting the end bene- ciaries' requirements and alleviate the suffering of vulnerable people, [the Humanitarian Logistics Conference, 2004 (Fritz Institute)]. During the last decade there has been an increasing interest in the OR/MS community in studying this topic, pointing out the similarities and differences between humanitarian and business logistics, and developing models suited to handle the special characteristics of these problems. Several authors have pointed out that traditional logistic objectives, such as minimizing operation cost, are not the most relevant goals in humanitarian operations. Other factors, such as the time of operation, or the design of safe and equitable distribution plans, come to the front, and new models and algorithms are needed to cope with these special features. Up to six attributes related to the distribution plan are considered in our multi-criteria approach. Even though there are usually simple ways to measure the cost of an operation, the evaluation of some other attributes such as security or equity is not easy. As a result, several attribute measures are proposed and developed, focusing on different aspects of the solutions. Furthermore, when metaheuristic solution methods are used, considering non linear objective functions does not increase the complexity of the algorithms significantly, and thus more accurate measures can be utilized...

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The Indonesian Arc represents the subduction of the Indian-Australian plate beneath Asia. It has been the scene of catastrophic tectonic activity, including the recent 2004 M=9.1 Aceh earthquake and resulting Indian Ocean tsunami. We have dated planktonic forams associated with historic tephras (Tambora, 1815 and Krakatau, 1883) in marine sediment cores to determine radiocarbon reservoir ages for 2 locations along the arc. Our best estimates for 19th century regional reservoir corrections (DeltaR) are +90 ± 40 yr for surface-dwelling species and +220 ± 40 yr for mixed planktic assemblages containing some upper thermocline species, but scatter in the data suggests that past surface reservoir ages may have varied by about ±100 yr. We used the results of this study to investigate a proposed very large AD 535 eruption at or near Krakatau. We find no evidence for ash from such an eruption, and although this is negative evidence, we consider it sufficiently strong to rule out any possibility that one took place.

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Extensive use of fossil fuels is leading to increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and causes changes in the carbonate chemistry of the oceans which represents a major sink for anthropogenic CO2. As a result, the oceans' surface pH is expected to decrease by ca. 0.4 units by the year 2100, a major change with potentially negative consequences for some marine species. Because of their carbonate skeleton, sea urchins and their larval stages are regarded as likely to be one of the more sensitive taxa. In order to investigate sensitivity of pre-feeding (2 days post-fertilization) and feeding (4 and 7 days post-fertilization) pluteus larvae, we raised Strongylocentrotus purpuratus embryos in control (pH 8.1 and pCO2 41 Pa e.g. 399 µatm) and CO2 acidified seawater with pH of 7.7 (pCO2 134 Pa e.g. 1318 µatm) and investigated growth, calcification and survival. At three time points (day 2, day 4 and day 7 post-fertilization), we measured the expression of 26 representative genes important for metabolism, calcification and ion regulation using RT-qPCR. After one week of development, we observed a significant difference in growth. Maximum differences in size were detected at day 4 (ca. 10 % reduction in body length). A comparison of gene expression patterns using PCA and ANOSIM clearly distinguished between the different age groups (Two way ANOSIM: Global R = 1) while acidification effects were less pronounced (Global R = 0.518). Significant differences in gene expression patterns (ANOSIM R = 0.938, SIMPER: 4.3% difference) were also detected at day 4 leading to the hypothesis that differences between CO2 treatments could reflect patterns of expression seen in control experiments of a younger larva and thus a developmental artifact rather than a direct CO2 effect. We found an up regulation of metabolic genes (between 10 to 20% in ATP-synthase, citrate synthase, pyruvate kinase and thiolase at day 4) and down regulation of calcification related genes (between 23 and 36% in msp130, SM30B, SM50 at day 4). Ion regulation was mainly impacted by up regulation of Na+/K+-ATPase at day 4 (15%) and down regulation of NHE3 at day 4 (45%). We conclude that in studies in which a stressor induces an alteration in the speed of development, it is crucial to employ experimental designs with a high time resolution in order to correct for developmental artifacts. This helps prevent misinterpretation of stressor effects on organism physiology.

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As England suffered heavy casualties at the front during World War One, the nation closed ranks against outsiders at home. England sought to reaffirm its racial dominance at the heart of the empire, and the Chinese in London became the principal scapegoat for anti-foreign sentiment. A combination of propaganda and popular culture, from the daily paper to the latest theatre sensation, fanned the flames of national resentment into a raging Sinophobia. Opium smoking, gambling and interracial romance became synonymous with London's Limehouse Chinatown, which was exoticised by Sax Rohmer's evil mastermind Fu Manchu and Thomas Burke's tales of lowlife love. England's Yellow Peril exploded in the midst of a catastrophic war and defined the representation of Chinese abroad in the decades to come.