Statistical forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop

Three types of forecasts of the total Australian production of macadamia nuts (t nut-in-shell) have been produced early each year since 2001. The first is a long-term forecast, based on the expected production from the tree census data held by the Australian Macadamia Society, suitably scaled up for missing data and assumed new plantings each year. These long-term forecasts range out to 10 years in the future, and form a basis for industry and market planning. Secondly, a statistical adjustment (termed the climate-adjusted forecast) is made annually for the coming crop. As the name suggests, climatic influences are the dominant factors in this adjustment process, however, other terms such as bienniality of bearing, prices and orchard aging are also incorporated. Thirdly, industry personnel are surveyed early each year, with their estimates integrated into a growers and pest-scouts forecast. Initially conducted on a 'whole-country' basis, these models are now constructed separately for the six main production regions of Australia, with these being combined for national totals. Ensembles or suites of step-forward regression models using biologically-relevant variables have been the major statistical method adopted, however, developing methodologies such as nearest-neighbour techniques, general additive models and random forests are continually being evaluated in parallel. The overall error rates average 14% for the climate forecasts, and 12% for the growers' forecasts. These compare with 7.8% for USDA almond forecasts (based on extensive early-crop sampling) and 6.8% for coconut forecasts in Sri Lanka. However, our somewhatdisappointing results were mainly due to a series of poor crops attributed to human reasons, which have now been factored into the models. Notably, the 2012 and 2013 forecasts averaged 7.8 and 4.9% errors, respectively. Future models should also show continuing improvement, as more data-years become available.

A model of macadamia with application to pruning in orchards

A self-organising model of macadamia, expressed using L-Systems, was used to explore aspects of canopy management. A small set of parameters control the basic architecture of the model, with a high degree of self-organisation occurring to determine the fate and growth of buds. Light was sensed at the leaf level and used to represent vigour and accumulated basipetally. Buds also sensed light so as to provide demand in the subsequent redistribution of the vigour. Empirical relationships were derived from a set of 24 completely digitised trees after conversion to multiscale tree graphs (MTG) and analysis with the OpenAlea software library. The ability to write MTG files was embedded within the model so that various tree statistics could be exported for each run of the model. To explore the parameter space a series of runs was completed using a high-throughput computing platform. When combined with MTG generation and analysis with OpenAlea it provided a convenient way in which thousands of simulations could be explored. We allowed the model trees to develop using self-organisation and simulated cultural practices such as hedging, topping, removal of the leader and limb removal within a small representation of an orchard. The model provides insight into the impact of these practices on potential for growth and the light distribution within the canopy and to the orchard floor by coupling the model with a path-tracing program to simulate the light environment. The lessons learnt from this will be applied to other evergreen, tropical fruit and nut trees.

Gestão colegiada da cadeia produtiva da cajucultura: o papel do comitê gestor no Rio Grande do Norte à luz do desenvolvimento regional sustentável

The theme of this dissertation is the collegiate management in the cashew cultivation s productive chain by the reading of the Managerial Committee s role in accordance with Sustainable Regional Development. The research had as aim to reveal the way as Managerial Committee s members of cashew cultivation s productive chain interpret the economic, social and environmental dimensions to the sustainability of entrepreneurships, using as interpretative base Sachs (2004) theoretical model. The theoretical reference is based in precepts of Solidarity Economy as a strategy to the Sustainable Regional Development. To reach this aim was done a case study, based in analysis of contents and semi-structured interviews with the solidarities economic entrepreneurships that integrate the Committee and with the group of Entities of Support and Fomentation responsible for formulating and conducting actions in favour of development of the chain. The research permitted to conclude that the economic, mainly, and social dimension, secondly, to super-impose the environmental dimension. The actions in favour of the chain are yet restricted and with low effectiveness when interpreted, in an integrated way, by a side, by the informers of this research and, by another side, in accordance with precepts of sustainable development

Review: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa

Aim Review the literature from 1990 to 2013 to determine known anatomic sites, risk factors, treatments, and outcomes of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Using a systematic search strategy, literature pertaining to HNSCC in sub-Saharan Africa was reviewed and patient demographics, anatomic sites, histology, stage, treatment, and outcomes were abstracted. The contributions of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human papillomavirus (HPV) and behavioural risk factors to HNSCC in the region were assessed. Results Of the 342 papers identified, 46 were utilized for review, including 8611 patients. In sub-Saharan Africa, the oropharyngeal/oral cavity was found to be the most common site, with 7750 cases (90% of all cases). Few papers distinguished oropharyngeal from oral cavity, making identification of possible HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) difficult. SCC of the nasopharynx, nasal cavity, or paranasal sinuses was identified in 410 patients (4.8% of all cases). Laryngeal SCC was found in 385 patients (4.5% of all cases), and only 66 patients (0.8% of all cases) with hypopharyngeal SCC were identified. In 862 patients with data available, 43% used tobacco and 42% used alcohol, and reported use varied widely and was more common in laryngeal SCC than that of the oropharyngeal/oral cavity. Toombak and kola nut use was reported to be higher in patients with HNSCC. Several papers reported HIV-positive patients with HNSCC, but it was not possible to determine HNSCC prevalence in HIV-positive compared to negative patients. Reports of treatment and outcomes were rare. Conclusions The oropharyngeal/oral cavity was by far the most commonly reported site of HNSCC reported in sub-Saharan Africa. The roles of risk factors in HNSCC incidence in sub-Saharan Africa were difficult to delineate from the available studies, but a majority of patients did not use tobacco and alcohol.

Arqueologia das Aprendizagens na Freguesia de Nossa Senhora da Conceição – Alandroal (1997-2007)

Localizado no Alentejo Central (NUT III), e pertencente ao distrito de Évora, o concelho do Alandroal faz fronteira com os concelhos de Vila Viçosa a norte, Elvas a nordeste, a oeste com o concelho de Redondo, Reguengos de Monsaraz e Mourão, a sul, abrangendo cerca de 7.3€ do distrito de Évora. Detém uma área de 544.1km quadrados e uma densidade populacional de 12,10 habitantes por quilómetro quadrado. A Este é totalmente delineado pelo Rio Guadiana, fazendo fronteira com Espanha, ao longo de um linha de 60km. Este concelho tem acesso através da Estrada Nacional 255, no eixo Vila Viçosa – Reguengos de Monsaraz, ou através da Estrada Nacional 373, no eixo Badajoz – Évora. O concelho é composto por seis freguesias – Nossa Senhora da Conceição (sede de concelho); Nossa Senhora do Loreto; Santiago Maior; Capelins – Santo António; S. Pedro e S. Brás dos Matos – fazendo parte destas quinze aldeias e três vilas. À semelhança das restantes aldeias do concelho, a freguesia de Nossa Senhora da Conceição, encontra-se geograficamente dispersa, caracterizando-se pela escassa acessibilidade. Tal como a vasta região do Alentejo, o concelho do Alandroal é caracterizado por apresentar a nível demográfico, diversos indícios sociais que não estimulam o seu desenvolvimento económico. O índice de envelhecimento, por exemplo, representa a crescente escassez de recursos humanos do concelho e a capacidade que o próprio tem para regenerar o seu tcido social. A débil industrialização e o declínio da atividade agrícola são condições potenciadoras da emigração interna dos jovens para outra regiões mais desenvolvidas e atraentes, que a nível regional, quer a nível nacional. As atividades mais relevantes para a economia do concelho, embora escassas, são a agricultura e a indústria, desancando-se, nesta última, a extração e transformação de mármores e a construção civil. O setor dos serviços revela uma elevada importância enquanto gerador de postos de trabalho, sobretudo, nas freguesias com algum cariz urbano.

Pesticide bioconcentration factor estimate in apples.

This work objective was to estimate the bioconcentration factor (BCF) of thirty six pesticides used in the Brazilian integrated apple production systems (IAP), in order to select priority pesticides to be monitored in apples. A hypothetical apple orchard was assumed and the model applied was according to Paraíba (2007) [Pesticide bioconcentration modeling for fruit trees. Chemosphere (66:1468-1475)]. The model relates BCF with plant and pesticide characteristics. The octanol-water partition coefficients of pesticides and their degradation rates in the soil were used. The following plant variables were considered: growth rate, total dry biomass, daily water transpiration rate, and total volume of water necessary to produce one kg of fresh fruit per plant. The pesticide stem-water partition coefficient and the transpiration stream concentration factor were calculated using equations that relate each coefficient with the octanol-water partition coefficient. The pesticide BCF in fruits is an important indicator of the pesticide affinity to fruits, and helps to improve the integrated production systems.

Pesticide bioconcentration modelling for fruit trees.

The model presented allows simulating the pesticide concentration in fruit trees and estimating the pesticide bioconcentration factor in fruits of woody species. The model allows estimating the pesticide uptake by plants through the water transpiration stream and also the time in which maximum pesticide concentration occur in the fruits. The equation proposed presents the relationships between bioconcentration factor (BCF) and the following variables: plant water transpiration volume (Q), pesticide transpiration stream concentration factor (TSCF), pesticide stem-water partition coefficient (KWood,w), stem dry biomass (M) and pesticide dissipation rate in the soil-plant system (kEGS). The modeling started and was developed from a previous model ?Fruit Tree Model? (FTM), reported by Trapp and collaborators in 2003, to which was added the hypothesis that the pesticide degradation in the soil follows a first order kinetic equation. The model fitness was evaluated through the sensitivity analysis of the pesticide BCF values in fruits with respect to the model entry data variability.

The bioconcentration factor of pesticides in potatoes.

We presented a model that estimates the bioconcentration factor (BCF) of pesticides in potatoes supposing that the pesticide in the soil solution is absorbed by the potato by passive diffusion, following Fick?s second law. The pesticides in the model are nonionic organic substances, traditionally used in potato crops that degrade in the soil according to a first order kinetic equation. This presents an expression that relates BCF with the pesticide elimination rate by the potato, with the pesticide accumulation rate within the potato, with the rate of growth of the potato and with the pesticide degradation rate in the soil. BCF was estimated supposing steady state equilibrium of the quotient between the pesticide concentration in the potato and the pesticide concentration in the soil solution. It is suggested that a negative correlation exists between the pesticide BCF and the soil sorption partition coefficient. The model was built based on the work of Trapp et al. (2007), [Diffusion of PAH in Potato and Carrot Slices and Applications for a Potato Model] in which an expression to calculate the diffusivity of persistent organic substances in potatoes is presented. The model consists in adding to the expression of Trapp et al. (2007) the hypothesis that the pesticide degrades in the soil. The value of BCF suggests which pesticides should be monitored in potatoes.

Estrutura populacional e potencial para o manejo de Bertholletia excelsa (Bonpl.) em castanhais nativos do Acre e Amapá.

Este estudo discute a estrutura populacional e o potencial para o manejo de castanhais em duas regiõesextremas da Amazônia (Acre e Amapá), avaliando a densidade de castanheiras, a distribuição diamétrica,e variáveis de copa. O diâmetro a 1,3 m do solo (DAP), a forma e posição da copa, presença de cipós nacopa estatusreprodutivo foram avaliados para cada árvore mapeada (DAP ≥ 10 cm) em parcelas perma-nentes de 9 ha. Foram inventariadas seis parcelas em cada Estado, totalizando 108 ha de amostragem. Adensidade e distribuição de indivíduos em classes de diâmetro foram determinadas por região (Alto Acreou Alto Cajari) e dentro de cada região. No total, foram mapeadas 610 castanheiras, sendo 124 no AltoAcre e 486 no Alto Cajari. A densidade de castanheiras nos castanhais do Alto Cajari foi quatro vezes maiorque no Alto Acre. Os castanhais do Alto Cajari apresentaram árvores com melhores características paraa produção, como forma e posição da copa, bem como menor ocorrência de cipós na copa das árvores.Em termos de estrutura populacional, o castanhal do Sororoca apresentou problemas recentes com a re-generação ou alteração na dinâmica da regeneração natural ao longo do tempo, talvez por ser uma áreade transição cerrado-floresta. Ambas regiões apresentaram castanhais com potencial para o manejo, comnecessidades específicas de tratos silviculturais que favoreçam o recrutamento de jovens no Sororoca(AP) e corte de cipós no Filipinas (AC).

Desenvolvimento de uma estratégia promocional para o turismo do oeste

Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, Faculdade de Economia, Univ. do Algarve, 2004

Flebotomíneos (Diptera: Psychodidae) em um sistema agroflorestal da Região Metropolitana de Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Sandflies stand out as important vectors of leishmaniasis. The females need to ingest blood meals, enabling them to transmit protozoa of the genus Leishmania, which may give rise to visceral leishmaniasis (VL) or American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL), in addition to transmitting other parasites. Leishmaniasis are important infirmities, distributed worldwide, whose infection results from the interaction of reservoir animals, the vector insect, parasitic protozoa and the healthy host. In the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil, these insects are important transmitters of VL, which usually presents in the most serious form. It occurs mainly in metropolitan areas, with the dog as its main reservoir and Lutzomyia longipalpis as the vector. ATL is most present in the highland areas of the state. In addition to hematophagia, engaged in by the females, both sexes need to ingest carbohydrates, which are essential to the sand flies energy requirements and may interfere in the development of Leishmania. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence and abundance of sand flies in different environments on the farm belonging to the Empresa de Pesquisas Agropecuárias do RN (Institute of Agricultural Research of RN), in the municipality of Parnamirim, in order to relate this occurrence with climatological and biological references and eating habits. Three consecutive monthly collections were carried out with CDC traps in a fragment of the Atlantic Forest, in a residence, on a goat breeding farm and on cashew, dwarf and giant coconut, mango, banana, eucalyptus, acacia and bean plantations. A total of 1241 sandflies from eight species (Lutzomyia evandroi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Lutzomyia shannoni, Lutzomyia sordellii Lutzomyia walkeri, Lutzomyia wellcomei, Lutzomyia whitmani, and Lutzomyia intermedia) were collected, most in the forest environment. L. longipalpis, the main VL transmitter, was confirmed as a species adapted to anthropic environments, whereas others such as L. wellcomei, the vector of ATL, occurred predominantly in forests. Carbohydrate characterization of the sand flies and plants of the region demonstrated that a number of exotic plants such as hay and eucalyptus may play some role in the adaptation of these species to modified environments. Breeding in laboratory showed a mean biological cycle of 53.5 days from egg to adulthood for L. shannoni and the possibility of diapause behavior in L. wellcomei. This study serves as a source of information that may contribute to the epidemiological vigilance of tegumentary and visceral leishmaniasis in the state, given that it analyzes the bioecology of transmitting species, as well as their potential to adapt to new environments

Normative reference values for the 20-meter shuttlerun test in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk.

Metabolic syndrome and associated factors in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

In contrast to the definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adults, there is no standard definition of MetS in pediatric populations. We aimed to assess the differences in the prevalence of MetS in children and adolescents aged 9–17 years in the city of Bogota (Colombia) using four different operational definitions for these age groups and to examine the associated variables. A total of 673 children and 1,247 adolescents attending public schools in Bogota (54.4% girls; age range 9–17.9 years) were included. The prevalence of MetS was determined by the definitions provided by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and three published studies by Cook et al., de Ferranti et al., and Ford et al. The prevalence of MetS was 0.3%, 6.3%, 7.8%, and 11.0% according to the IDF, Cook et al., Ford et al., and de Ferranti et al. definitions, respectively. The most prevalent components were low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high triglyceride levels, whereas the least prevalent components were abdominal obesity and hyperglycemia. Overall, the prevalence of MetS was higher in obese than in non-obese schoolchildren. In conclusion, MetS diagnoses in schoolchildren strongly depend on the definition chosen. These findings may be relevant to health promotion efforts for Colombian youth to develop prospective studies and to define which cut-offs are the best indicators of future morbidity.

LMS tables for waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio among Colombian children and adolescents: The FUPRECOL study

Background: Indices predictive of central obesity include waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). The aims of this study were 1) to establish a Colombian youth smoothed centile charts and LMS tables for WC and WHtR and 2) to evaluate the utility of these parameters as predictors of overweight and obesity. Method: A cross-sectional study whose sample population comprised 7954 healthy Colombian schoolchildren [boys n=3460 and girls n=4494, mean (standard deviation) age 12.8 (2.3) years old]. Weight, height, body mass index (BMI), WC and WHtR and its percentiles were calculated. Appropriate cut-offs point of WC and WHtR for overweight and obesity, as defined by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) definitions, were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The discriminating power of WC and WHtR was expressed as area under the curve (AUC). Results: Reference values for WC and WHtR are presented. Mean WC increased and WHtR decreased with age for both genders. We found a moderate positive correlation between WC and BMI (r= 0.756, P < 0.01) and WHtR and BMI (r= 0.604, P < 0.01). The ROC analysis showed a high discrimination power in the identification of overweight and obesity for both measures in our sample population. Overall, WHtR was slightly a better predictor for overweight/obesity (AUC 95% CI 0.868-0.916) than the WC (AUC 95% CI 0.862-0.904). Conclusion: This paper presents the first sex- and age-specific WC and WHtR percentiles for both measures among Colombian children and adolescents aged 9–17.9 years. By providing LMS tables for Latin-American people based on Colombian reference data, we hope to provide quantitative tools for the study of obesity and its comorbidities.

Triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses percentiles and cut-offs for overweight and obesity in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to establish a Colombian smoothed centile charts and LMS tables for tríceps, subscapular and sum tríceps+subscapular skinfolds; appropriate cut-offs were selected using receiver operating characteristic analysis based in a populationbased sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia and to compare them with international studies. METHODS: A total of 9 618 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (55.7% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years). Height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, triceps and subscapular skinfold measurements were obtained using standardized methods. We have calculated tríceps+subscapular skinfold (T+SS) sum. Smoothed percentile curves for triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness were derived by the LMS method. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analyses were used to evaluate the optimal cut-off point of tríceps, subscapular and sum tríceps+subscapular skinfolds for overweight and obesity based on the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) definitions. Data were compared with international studies. RESULTS: Subscapular, triceps skinfolds and T+SS were significantly higher in girls than in boys (P <0.001). The median values for triceps, subscapular as well as T+SS skinfold thickness increased in a sex-specific pattern with age. The ROC analysis showed that subscapular, triceps skinfolds and T+SS have a high discrimination power in the identification of overweight and obesity in the sample population in this study. Based on the raw non-adjusted data, we found that Colombian boys and girls had high triceps and subscapular skinfolds values than their counterparts from Spain, UK, German and US. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide sex- and age-specific normative reference standards for the triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness values in a large, population-based sample of 3 schoolchildren and adolescents from an Latin-American population. By providing LMS tables for Latin-American people based on Colombian reference data, we hope to provide quantitative tools for the study of obesity and its complications.