Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Detection of West Nile virus antigen in mosquitoes and avian tissues by a monoclonal antibody-based capture enzyme immunoassay

An antigen capture immunoassay to detect West Nile (WN) virus antigen in infected mosquitoes and avian tissues has been developed. With this assay purified WN virus was detected at a concentration of 32 pg/0.1 ml, and antigen in infected suckling mouse brain and laboratory-infected mosquito pools could be detected when the WN virus titer was 10(2.1) to 10(3.7) PFU/0.1 ml. In a blindly coded set of field-collected mosquito pools (n = 100), this assay detected WN virus antigen in 12 of 18 (66.7%) TaqMan-positive pools, whereas traditional reverse transcriptase PCR detected 10 of 18 (55.5%) positive pools. A sample set of 73 organ homogenates from naturally infected American crows was also examined by WN virus antigen capture immunoassay and TaqMan for the presence of WN virus. The antigen capture assay detected antigen in 30 of 34 (88.2%) TaqMan-positive tissues. Based upon a TaqMan-generated standard curve of infectious WN virus, the limit of detection in the antigen capture assay for avian tissue homogenates was approximately 10(3) PFU/0.1 ml. The recommended WN virus antigen capture protocol, which includes a capture assay followed by a confirmatory inhibition assay used to retest presumptive positive samples, could distinguish between the closely related WN and St. Louis encephalitis viruses in virus-infected mosquito pools and avian tissues. Therefore, this immunoassay demonstrates adequate sensitivity and specificity for surveillance of WN virus activity in mosquito vectors and avian hosts, and, in addition, it is easy to perform and relatively inexpensive compared with the TaqMan assay.

Phase equilibrium data and liquidus for the system "MnO"-CaO-(Al2O3+SiO2) at Al2O3/SiO2 of 0.41

Phase-equilibrium data and the liquidus for the system. "MnO"-CaO-(Al2O3-SiO2) at a manganese-rich alloy saturation have been determined in the temperature range from 1423 to 1723 K. The results are presented in the form of a pseudoternary section "MnO"-CaO-(Al2O3 + SiO2) with an Al2O3/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.41. The following primary phases are present in the range of conditions investigated:, 3Al(2)O(3).2SiO(2); SiO2; MnO.Al2O3-2SiO(2); (Mn,Ca)O.SiO2; 2(Mn,Ca)O.SiO2; MnO.Al2O3; (Mn,Ca)O; alpha-2CaO.SiO2; alpha'-2CaO.SiO2; 2CaO.Al2O3.SiO2; CaO.SiO2, and CaO.Al2O3.2SiO(2). The presence of alumina in this system is shown to have a significant effect on the liquidus compared to the system "MnO"-CaO-SiO2, leading to, the stabilization of the anorthite and gehlenite phases.

Mineral chemistry, whole-rock compositions, and petrogenesis of leg 176 gabbros: Data and discussion

We report mineral chemistry, whole-rock major element compositions, and trace element analyses on Hole 735B samples drilled and selected during Leg 176. We discuss these data, together with Leg 176 shipboard data and Leg 118 sample data from the literature, in terms of primary igneous petrogenesis. Despite mineral compositional variation in a given sample, major constituent minerals in Hole 735B gabbroic rocks display good chemical equilibrium as shown by significant correlations among Mg# (= Mg/[Mg+Fe2+]) of olivine, clinopyroxene, and orthopyroxene and An (=Ca/[Ca+Na]) of plagioclase. This indicates that the mineral assemblages olivine + plagioclase in troctolite, plagioclase + clinopyroxene in gabbro, plagioclases + clinopyroxene + olivine in olivine gabbro, and plagioclase + clinopyroxene + olivine + orthopyroxene in gabbronorite, and so on, have all coprecipitated from their respective parental melts. Fe-Ti oxides (ilmenite and titanomagnetite), which are ubiquitous in most of these rocks, are not in chemical equilibrium with olivine, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase, but precipitated later at lower temperatures. Disseminated oxides in some samples may have precipitated from trapped Fe-Ti–rich melts. Oxides that concentrate along shear bands/zones may mark zones of melt coalescence/transport expelled from the cumulate sequence as a result of compaction or filter pressing. Bulk Hole 735B is of cumulate composition. The most primitive olivine, with Fo = 0.842, in Hole 735B suggests that the most primitive melt parental to Hole 735B lithologies must have Mg# ≤ 0.637, which is significantly less than Mg# = 0.714 of bulk Hole 735B.

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer - collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58 515 women with breast cancer and 95 067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19 - 1.45, P < 0.00001) for an intake of 35 - 44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33 - 1.61, P < 0.00001) for greater than or equal to 45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P