Statistical evidences of cyclic changes in volcanic gas chemistry composition by inverse modelling

The identification of compositional changes in fumarolic gases of active and quiescent volcanoes is one of the most important targets in monitoring programs. From a general point of view, many systematic (often cyclic) and random processes control the chemistry of gas discharges, making difficult to produce a convincing mathematical-statistical modelling. Changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases sampled at Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Sicily, Italy) from eight different fumaroles located in the northern sector of the summit crater (La Fossa) have been analysed by considering their dependence from time in the period 2000-2007. Each intermediate chemical composition has been considered as potentially derived from the contribution of the two temporal extremes represented by the 2000 and 2007 samples, respectively, by using inverse modelling methodologies for compositional data. Data pertaining to fumaroles F5 and F27, located on the rim and in the inner part of La Fossa crater, respectively, have been used to achieve the proposed aim. The statistical approach has allowed us to highlight the presence of random and not random fluctuations, features useful to understand how the volcanic system works, opening new perspectives in sampling strategies and in the evaluation of the natural risk related to a quiescent volcano

Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the Rodrigues Triple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods (fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for the extraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation of geochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marine geologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. The display of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth provided consistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not be identified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods were applied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient as similarity measure. During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was made and many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of these data. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations, reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visual interpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and to answers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana- Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplot scattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components and visualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will be plotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification of the expected sources of the sedimentary process. Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

Selenium cycling in volcanic environments: the role of soils as reactive interfaces

Selenium (Se) is an element with important health implications that is emitted in significant amounts from volcanoes. Attracted by the fertility of volcanic soils, around 10% of the world population lives within 100 km of an active volcano. Nevertheless, the behaviour of Se in volcanic environments is poorly understood. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis is to investigate the role of soils in the Se cycling in volcanic environments. Prior to the geochemical studies, precise and accurate methods for the determination of Se contents, speciation and isotopic signatures were developed. Afterwards, a combination of field studies and lab controlled experiments were performed with soils from two contrasting European volcanic settings: Mount Etna in Sicily (Italy) and Mount Teide in Tenerife (Spain). The results showed a strong link between Se behaviour and soil development, indicating that Se mobility in volcanic soils is controlled by sorption processes and soil mineralogy.

Análisis y evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de la población de La Fortuna de San Carlos a la actividad volcànica del Volcán Arenal, Costa Rica.

El Volcán Arenal es un joven estratovolcán (7ka) localizado en el noroeste de Costa Rica. Inicio su presente ciclo eruptivo el 29 de Julio de 1968 con una gran explosión lateral que mató alrededor de 90 personas. En el momento inicial de la erupción los alrededores del volcán estaban ocupados principalmente por fincas ganaderas. Hoy día, 40 años después de constante actividad volcánica las tierras dedicadas a la ganadería en los alrededores del volcán han retrocedido como principal actividad económica para dar paso a la creciente infraestructura turística. La población de La Fortuna, la ciudad más cercana al volcán (5 km) ha crecido aceleradamente como producto del desarrollo del turismo y la cercanía al volcán. Considerando los peligros volcánicos presentes, las tendencias de crecimiento de la población, y la extensión de la actividad turística, se propone una zonificación de los usos del suelo en La Fortuna de San Carlos y alrededores del Volcán Arenal. El estudio de percepción del riesgo en la población fue implementado en La Fortuna y alrededores con posee una población de aproximadamente 12000 personas. La población fue dividida en dos segmentos para el análisis. Lo primero fue una muestra (N=32) de la población directamente involucrada en la actividad turística (dueños de hotel, empleados, dueños de restaurante, operadora de tour, etc). La segunda (N=40) fue una muestra de la población residente en la ciudad de La Fortuna y alrededores, relacionados o no con las actividades turísticas. Se diseño una entrevista para cada segmento investigado. Así se investigó la percepción del riesgo de la población directamente beneficiada por el turismo atreves de la actividad volcánica y la población residente. El Volcán Arenal es visto de dos formas diferentes por la población que vive en la zona de La Fortuna. Por un lado, la población que vive directamente de la actividad turística, mencionan que el volcán es la razón del acelerado crecimiento económico en el lugar durante la última década. Además, para este grupo el Arenal es la fuente de cientos de empleos y la fuerza que ha transformado a La Fortuna de un poblado rural a una prospera ciudad con una inusual oferta de servicios para los turistas y residentes. Por otra parte, los residentes que no dependen directamente de la actividad turística creen que el volcán es el más importante peligro natural en la zona, sin embargo han aprendido a convivir con él.

“Mi delirio sobre el Chimborazo”: anuncios y fundación (Dossier: Bicentenario, rastros y revelaciones de la Independencia)

El autor reflexiona sobre el poema escrito por Bolívar en 1823. Plantea que, ante la sobrecogedora belleza del volcán, y enfrentado a un destino complejo y caótico, el héroe revive eternos temores. Serrano lo asimila al Cristo del sermón de la montaña, cuando pretende reencontrarse con los elementos, reinsertarse en el mundo que está redefiniéndose en los campos de batalla. En la cima del Chimborazo, Bolívar dialoga con el tiempo, voz en la que el autor destaca las resonancias bíblicas. Resalta que el héroe, perturbado por los acontecimientos políticos, está poseído por una “pasión violenta”, por un proyecto político que deviene en obsesión: la idea de construir una gran nación liberada. Serrano concibe a la voz del Viejo como la representante de un orden mítico que pervive (el guardián del mundo mineral y espiritual), que interpela a un sujeto que, otra vez como el Cristo, duda. El final abierto del texto, para el autor, sugiere que solo en el sueño o el delirio es posible reconocer nuestra condición de “míseros mortales”.

The influence of viscous and latent heating on crystal-rich magma flow in a conduit

The flow dynamics of crystal-rich high-viscosity magma is likely to be strongly influenced by viscous and latent heat release. Viscous heating is observed to play an important role in the dynamics of fluids with temperature-dependent viscosities. The growth of microlite crystals and the accompanying release of latent heat should play a similar role in raising fluid temperatures. Earlier models of viscous heating in magmas have shown the potential for unstable (thermal runaway) flow as described by a Gruntfest number, using an Arrhenius temperature dependence for the viscosity, but have not considered crystal growth or latent heating. We present a theoretical model for magma flow in an axisymmetric conduit and consider both heating effects using Finite Element Method techniques. We consider a constant mass flux in a 1-D infinitesimal conduit segment with isothermal and adiabatic boundary conditions and Newtonian and non-Newtonian magma flow properties. We find that the growth of crystals acts to stabilize the flow field and make the magma less likely to experience a thermal runaway. The additional heating influences crystal growth and can counteract supercooling from degassing-induced crystallization and drive the residual melt composition back towards the liquidus temperature. We illustrate the models with results generated using parameters appropriate for the andesite lava dome-forming eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. These results emphasize the radial variability of the magma. Both viscous and latent heating effects are shown to be capable of playing a significant role in the eruption dynamics of Soufriere Hills Volcano. Latent heating is a factor in the top two kilometres of the conduit and may be responsible for relatively short-term (days) transients. Viscous heating is less restricted spatially, but because thermal runaway requires periods of hundreds of days to be achieved, the process is likely to be interrupted. Our models show that thermal evolution of the conduit walls could lead to an increase in the effective diameter of flow and an increase in flux at constant magma pressure.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elevated marine deposits in Bermuda record a late Quaternary megatsunami

Deposits of coral-bearing, marine shell conglomerate exposed at elevations higher than 20 m above present-day mean sea level (MSL) in Bermuda and the Bahamas have previously been interpreted as relict intertidal deposits formed during marine isotope stage (MIS) I I, ca. 360-420 ka before present. On the strength of this evidence, a sea level highstand more than 20 m higher than present-day MSL was inferred for the MIS I I interglacial, despite a lack of clear supporting evidence in the oxygen-isotope records of deep-sea sediment cores. We have critically re-examined the elevated marine deposits in Bermuda, and find their geological setting, sedimentary relations, and microfaunal assemblages to be inconsistent with intertidal deposition over an extended period. Rather, these deposits, which comprise a poorly sorted mixture of reef, lagoon and shoreline sediments, appear to have been carried tens of meters inside karst caves, presumably by large waves, at some time earlier than ca. 310-360 ka before present (MIS 9-11). We hypothesize that these deposits are the result of a large tsunami during the mid-Pleistocene, in which Bermuda was impacted by a wave set that carried sediments from the surrounding reef platform and nearshore waters over the eolianite atoll. Likely causes for such a megatsunami are the flank collapse of an Atlantic island volcano, such as the roughly synchronous Julan or Orotava submarine landslides in the Canary Islands, or a giant submarine landslide on the Atlantic continental margin. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dating the volcanic eruption at Thera

The eruption of the volcano at Thera (Santorini) in the Aegean Sea undoubtedly had a profound influence on the civilizations of the surrounding region. The date of the eruption has been a subject of much controversy because it must be linked into the established and intricate archaeological phasings of both the prehistoric Aegean and the wider east Mediterranean. Radiocarbon dating of material from the volcanic destruction layer itself can provide some evidence for the date of the eruption, but because of the shape of the calibration curve for the relevant period, the value of such dates relies on there being no biases in the data sets. However, by dating the material from phases earlier and later than the eruption, some of the problems of the calibration data set can be circumvented and the chronology for the region can be resolved with more certainty. In this paper, we draw together the evidence we have accumulated so far, including new data on the destruction layer itself and for the preceding cultural horizon at Thera, and from associated layers at Miletos in western Turkey. Using Bayesian models to synthesize the data and to identify outliers, we conclude from the most reliable C-14 evidence (and using the INTCAL98 calibration data set) that the eruption of Thera occurred between 1663 and 1599 BC.