Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Avaliação da eficiência dos programas de pós-graduação acadêmicos em administração, contabilidade e turismo

The Triennial Evaluation of Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) is made according to several indicators, divided into several issues and items, and their weights. In these it is evident the importance of scientific periodicals. This study aims to evaluate the relative efficiency of post-graduate students in Business Administration, Accounting and tourism evaluated by CAPES in Brazil. The methodology used the data envelopment analysis - DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The data were obtained from the site and organized by the CAPES Qualis score. The analysis was performed by the DEA variable returns to scale, product-oriented (BCC-O), with data from the three-year periods 2004-2006 and 2007-2009. Among the main results are the average increase significantly the relative efficiency of the programs in the period 2007-2009 compared to 2004-2006 period, the highest average efficiency of programs linked to public institutions in relation to private, doctoral programs with the present average efficiency sharply higher than those only with masters, and senior programs in general were more efficient. There is also moderate and significant correlation between the efficiency scores and concepts CAPES. The Malmquist index analysis showed that more than 85% of programs had increased productivity. It is noteworthy that the main effect that influences the increase of the Malmquist index is the displacement of the border (Frontier-shift)

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Utilização de um ambiente virtual de aprendizagem: um estudo na perspectiva da prática docente

Advances related to information technology are visible and inherent to the management of contemporary organizations, regardless of industrial action. Synchronized with this dynamic, educational institutions are incorporating technological tools that assist its management and academic support to teachers in teaching and interaction with the students. Given that technological innovations are not always taken homogeneously and with the same degree of coverage, remain current and relevant studies on how these technologies are being used in academia. The objective of this research is to identify the usage profile of the functionality of a virtual learning environment related to teaching (undergraduate or postgraduate), demographic variables (age and gender) and institutional (time of admission and academic center of origin.) The methodology applied to the study is descriptive and quantitative. The research is characterized as census, covering all 2152 teachers of undergraduate and graduate students of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, who accessed the virtual classes of the Integrated Management of Academic Activities. The study findings revealed that there is a statistically significant difference regarding the use of these tools to teachers who work with undergraduate (49.3%) compared to graduate (6.6%). Regarding gender, women (40.1%) use the system more than men (38.5%). It was also observed that the younger teachers, aged 37 years, are the most active users (42.5%) of the Virtual Class with respect to their elders. For teachers with up to three years time of admission to the UFRN, the pattern of use is more advanced than those with more seniority, as well as the faculty of the Center for Science and Technology are the least likely to use the tools available in relation to other academic centers. It is hoped that with this study managers can direct actions to improve and expand the use of this environment by teachers

Maturidade de escritório de gerenciamento de projetos: o caso do Ministério Público do Rio Grande do Norte

The research aimed to evaluate the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Ministry of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, on the model PMO Maturity Cube. It was based on a theoretical framework that includes project management, project management office and maturity of the project management office. The research was classified as to the purpose as exploratory and descriptive. According to the methods used was a case study, and how to approach is qualitative and quantitative. The research unit was the prosecutor of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, by two guys who represent all of the participants in the project management office of the institution. These subjects were chosen because they act with the office since the foundation of the same, having the knowledge necessary to deepen the research required, and experience with projects and work experience in the area. Data were collected through an adaptation of the evaluation form for the amplitude corporate developed and presented to the scientific environment for Pinto, Cota and Levin (2010). The results revealed that the level of maturity in the current strategic approach is 77%, and 97% desired; tactical approach in current is 66% and 97% desired, and the current operational approach is 78%, and 100% desired. He pointed out that several factors influence the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Prosecutor and the recurrent related to information technology, regarding the storage and sharing of information. Concluded that the level of maturity of the project management office of the Public Ministry of the State of Rio Grande do Norte is advanced

análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Burocracia e comércio exterior: os desafios à exportação sob a ótica das micro e pequenas empresas exportadoras do rio grande do norte

As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande número de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em âmbito gerencial, financeiro, burocrático ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percepção das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exigências burocráticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no comércio exterior. Como exigências burocráticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho é entendido como os resultados da atividade econômica medido através do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados não atendidas e da ampliação do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada é de caráter censitário, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no comércio exterior nos últimos três anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplicação de questionário, assim como uma consulta a dados secundários disponíveis. A análise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percepção dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exportação, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos órgãos públicos e a infraestrutura logística do estado exercem influência na pequena participação das MPEs nas exportações do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados

Trabalho e família: um estudo da interação de papéis com secretários executivos

The balance between the demands of two important spheres of human life, work and family, has become a challenge due to the pressures of the contemporary that is expanding around the difficulties of reconciling these two comínios. In this sense, this research aimed to understand the work-family interaction in the perception of executive secretaries. The analysis approach used was qualitative research, by worrying about a reality that can not be quantified due to the subjectivity of his goal. The data collection technique used was the semistructured interview to twenty executive secretaries, servants of a Federal Institution of Higher Education. For the understanding and interpretation of the data, we used the technique of content analysis. The results of both analyzes identified the existence of conflict as enrichment in this interaction. The time was identified as the largest generator of conflict work. The overload, relationship stress and conflict emerged as elements common to both domains. As main implications of labor disputes, were revealed: problamas health for secretaries and stress. As main implications of family conflicts emerged: motivation for work, lower performance and lack of concentration. The attempt at balance was identified as the strategy most used by secretaries to minimize work-family conflict. The work-family enrichment was seen as resources that contribute to improving the lives of the secretary in both domains. The opportunity to add knowledge was highlighted as enriching element of work and family values ​​as elements enriching family. The support and experience emerged as enrichment items common to both domains. Regarding the implications of enrichment resulting from the interaction of work and family, the more perceived by respondents were: increased knowledge and skills, material and psychological benefits, improved quality of life and personal and professional fulfillment. From the perception of executive secretaries, work and family spheres of human life are essential and complementary, and that help is contrary, however, this relationship is the primary management of conflicts, ie, how the individual sees and manages the negative side of the work-family

Comunicação pública e marketing político na gestão pública municipal

Based on the definitions of Public Communication, Political Marketing, Public Interest Information and Communication as a Tool of Governance, the study notes the use of the news section of the websites of the City Christmas and Mossoro, Rio Grande do Norte, in regard to strengthening citizenship and encouraging participatory management, from the characterization of materials like pieces of Political Marketing and Public Communication. Data collection in qualitative research was conducted from August to September 2011 and content analysis showed that the appropriation of public property for personal use is a reality, despite legal requirements to the detriment of strategic communication and governance for results from the dissemination of information of public interest and the establishment of a communication channel between State Government and Society. Elements of this study suggest the need for further research to deepen the discussion

Metodologias de serviços públicos de ater: estudo em instituições do Rio Grande do Norte

Due to the appreciation of family farming by the Brazilian Federal Government, the Technical Assistance and Rural Extension was induced to restructure and act in a more participative way, culminating in the National Policy of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (PNATER), changing the profile of technology transfer and knowledge (diffusionism) for an action that uses participatory methodologies focused on exchange of knowledge between farmers and technicians. The process of discussion of the trends of ATER brought the New ATER , with the recognition of agroecology as the main guidance. This research aimed to analyze methods of public ATER developed by institutions of Rio Grande do Norte, under the guidance of New ATER. The research is qualitative. Secondary data were collected through documental research and literature. Primary data were collected through a set of interviews applied to representatives of public institutions ATER, namely EMATER-RN, Diaconia and AACC and representatives of organizations that receive public ATER. The research showed the difficulties of EMATER-RN in implementing of New ATER due to lack of infrastructure and low adherence of the new form of technical assistance and rural extension. It was shown also that the AACC and Diaconia act with ATER through projects with implementation deadlines set, often interrupting ATER while communities are still in need of assistance

Relações de cooperação em consórcios públicos de regiões metropolitanas: análises do CONDIAM/PB e consórcio grande Recife

With the disorganized decentralization occurred in Brazil after the 1988 Constitution, municipalities have risen to the level of federal entities. This phenomenon became known as "municipalism" also brought some negative effects such as low capacity financial, economic and political of these entities. In the face of this reality , the municipalities sought in models of collaborative features to address public policy issues ultrarregionais, one of these models are the Public Consortia. Characterized as the organization of all federal entities that aim to solve public policy implementation alone that they could not, or spend great resources for such. This reality of the municipalities have an aggravating factor when looking at the situation in Metropolitan Regions (MRs). This is because the RMs has a historical process of formation that does not encourage cooperation, since that were created top-down during the military regime. Furthermore, the metropolitan municipalities have significant power asymmetries, localist vision, rigidity earmarked revenues, different scenarios conurbation, difficulty standardization of concepts and others that contribute to the vision of low cooperation of these metropolitan areas. Thus, the problem of this work is in the presence of collaborative arrangements, such as the Public Consortia in metropolitan areas, which are seen as areas of low cooperation. To elucidate this research was used for analysis the cases of CONDIAM/PB and Consórcio Grande Recife/PE, because they are apparently antagonistic, but with some points of similarity. The cases has as foundation the Theory of Common Resources, which provides the possibility of collective action through the initiative of individuals. This theory has as its methodology for analyzing the picture IAD Framework, which proposes its analysis based on three axes: external variables, the arena of action and results. The nature of the method of this research was classified as exploratory and descriptive. For the stage of date analysis, was used the method of document analysis and content, Further than of separation of the cases according to theur especificities. At the end of the study, noted that the CONDIAM/PB was a strategy of municipal government of Joao Pessoa to attract funds from the Federal Government for the purpose of to build a landfill, and over the years the ideology of cooperation was left aside, the prevailing view localist municipalities. In the case of Consórcio Grande Recife/PE, members act with some degree of cooperation, especially the collaborative aspect of the region, however, still prevails with greater strength the power of the state of Pernambuco in the decisions and paths of the consortium. Thus, was conclude that the Public Consortia analyzed are an experience of collaborative arrangement, from the initiative of members, as the theory of common resources says, but has not actually signed as a practice of collective action to overcome the dilemmas faced by metropolitan areas

Sistemas de gerenciamento de bibliotecas: riscos decorrentes do processo de migração de dados

This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units

A Tecnologia da informação como fator de competitividade em um apl: o caso da carcinicultura do RN

Este estudo aborda a utilização da tecnologia da informação de forma competitiva em um Arranjo Produtivo Local APL. Realizou-se no APL da carcinicultura no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte e teve por objetivo buscar a compreensão de como o uso da tecnologia da informação (TI) contribui para o aumento da competitividade na atividade do APL citado. APL pode ser conceituado como uma aliança entre organizações que possuem um projeto coletivo, para elevar a sua competitividade e participação no mercado. Para atingir este objetivo, foi realizada uma pesquisa descritiva, através da utilização de múltiplos casos selecionados dentre as empresas que compõem o APL da carcinicultura no RN. Os dados coletados foram analisados qualitativamente. Os resultados da pesquisa indicaram que as empresas percebem a importância do uso da TI, mas que, na prática, a sua utilização é limitada, principalmente em se tratando de Sistemas Integrados de Gestão e Comércio Eletrônico. Outro resultado encontrado foi que as empresas, embora façam parte do APL, ainda não colaboram entre si, seja através da troca de informações, ou através de Sistemas de Informação Interorganizacional. As principais recomendações diante destes resultados é que as empresas atuem ativamente para o fortalecimento do APL. No que se refere ao uso da TI faz-se necessário que elas invistam na aquisição de sistemas integrados de gestão e sistemas de informação interorganizacional para o melhor gerenciamento das informações ao longo da cadeia

Atuação e desempenho do Ministério Público do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte no contexto da gestão pública: perspectiva estratégica

The present dissertation analyzes the performance and acting of the Rio Grande do Norte Public Ministery, in the strategic perspective, while responsible Institution for the defense of the collective rights. The comprehension of this theme inserts in a context of modernization of the public administration, in which is inserted, as well as their functional and structural changes, in a reality of innovations there is passing the organizations, looking to rescue the legitimacy of the government organizations, aligning them to the democratic values of the society. It detaches the strategic administration and the public administration and it exposes the strategic performance about the central point of the study, focusing in the development of the organization in the last four years, and other relative subjects to the acting. It is a unic case study, framed in the characteristics of the qualitative approaches - descriptive and exploratory. The analysis showed, through the method of content analysis, by the criterion of thematic categorization, that MP / RN come developing in an intense way,and it detaches that the changes already happened reflect a good strategic acting of the Institution, especially in the structural and functional areas, showing the strategic conscience of this, although that is not still enough to consider it as a strategic organization, and it concludes that there is still a lot for doing, and that the occurrence of an administration typically strategic in the extent of MP/RN is possible, with the conscience and participation of all, members and servants

Gestão do marketing de relacionamento: um estudo em empresas hoteleiras de Natal - RN

The present study it analyzes the Management of the Marketing of strategy Relationship as distinguishing for the host s companies of the city of Natal - RN. To carry through this analysis interviews with managers had been carried through, as well as the direct comment of processes, documents, actions and strategies developed for the hotels, with intention to know the level of perception and valuation of the relationship with customers, to verify resources and technologies used in the Management of the Relationship Marketing, identification, segmentation and differentiation of customers, personalization of products and services, and results of the emphasis in the relationship with customers for the host s companies. The research can be classified as exploratory - descriptive, and its universe is limited to the city of Natal, having enclosed hotels that have carried through tourist activity in 2005 and 2006. Still on the criteria of election of the sample, the study it investigated host s companies who if fit in the category superior luxury, or either, five stars, pertaining the national nets and international. How much to the treatment and analysis of the data the was made to leave of the theoretical support of the authors who work the thematic one and of the analysis of the interviews with managers, documents and processes observed for the researcher in the studied hotels. The research sample that the interviewed ones understand the importance to work the Management of the Marketing of Relationship in the host s companies me intention to get sustainable competitive advantage. One still evidenced that the searched hotels make use of strategies and instruments of Management of the Marketing of Relationship, however without an ample theoretical knowledge and yes only as base in the experience of the managers and spread processes already, generating one moment competitive advantage and not relationships of long duration