Analysis on the connotation of probability in the artificial intelligence algorithm for economic decision making.

This paper analyzes the inner relations between classical sub-scheme probability and statistic probability, subjective probability and objective probability, prior probability and posterior probability, transition probability and probability of utility, and further analysis the goal, method, and its practical economic purpose which represent by these various probability from the perspective of mathematics, so as to deeply understand there connotation and its relation with economic decision making, thus will pave the route for scientific predication and decision making.

How can science contribute for the sustainable management of natural resource? : Praia da Vitória Bay and Guadiana Estuary, a comparative study

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente (Ordenamento do Território), 5 de Abril de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Agent based simulation as a novel decision support tool for retail managers

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Our research so far has led us to conduct case study work with a top ten UK retailer. Based on our case study experience and data we are developing a simulator that can be used to investigate the impact of management practices (e.g. training, empowerment, teamwork) on customer satisfaction and retail productivity.

Estágio TAP/Megasys - Data Warehouse & Reporting

Mestrado em Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Business Intelligence como soporte de las decisiones estratégicas, tácticas y operacionales de las organizaciones.

La importancia del proceso de toma de decisiones en la determinación del éxito de las compañías; genera la necesidad de contar con una fuente de información confiable que permita la generación de conocimiento oportuno y a disposición de quien lo necesita. El propósito de esta investigación es establecer un marco de referencia de la utilización de Business Intelligence como soporte de las decisiones tácticas, estratégicas y operacionales en las empresas. Iniciando con la descripción de la evolución de los sistemas de información utilizados en el proceso de toma de decisiones, impulsada por los diferentes cambios tecnológicos que han marcado el camino del establecimiento de Business Intelligence como una solución integral para los desafíos que se presentan a diario relacionados con la búsqueda de generación de valor mediante la implementación de decisiones óptimas. Luego se describe la arquitectura de un sistema de inteligencia de negocios en la cual se define elementos básicos para el correcto funcionamiento, como lo son: almacenamiento de datos, funciones empresariales, sistemas de gestión y las interfaces de usuario. Además de describir el proceso y alcance de su correcta implementación, y poder así obtener los beneficios que estos sistemas ofrecen. La metodología desarrollada en la investigación fue descriptiva, y se fundamentó en identificar el grado de utilización de Business Intelligence por los tomadores de decisiones, representados por egresados y graduados de la Maestría en Administración Financiera de la Universidad de El Salvador en el período 2006-2015.

Il passaggio dalla Business Intelligence all'Advanced Analytics: individuazione e analisi di un modello in merito all'influenza del lobbying nel sistema economico

I Big Data stanno guidando una rivoluzione globale. In tutti i settori, pubblici o privati, e le industrie quali Vendita al dettaglio, Sanità, Media e Trasporti, i Big Data stanno influenzando la vita di miliardi di persone. L’impatto dei Big Data è sostanziale, ma così discreto da passare inosservato alla maggior parte delle persone. Le applicazioni di Business Intelligence e Advanced Analytics vogliono studiare e trarre informazioni dai Big Data. Si studia il passaggio dalla prima alla seconda, mettendo in evidenza aspetti simili e differenze.

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA—disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally—is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.

Building an Improved Community Support System

This research will serve to evaluate the current processes and procedures in place for the Community Case Management training, data entry, and quality assurance at the Department of Juvenile Justice. The goal of the research is to identify and establish a framework for a universal unit within the agency that will enhance the effectiveness of Case Management by consolidating and streamlining information to reduce conflicting standards to create a stronger support unit, and to facilitate learning and understanding for the staff.

A Case-Based Approach to Nosocomial Infection Detection

The nosocomial infections are a growing concern because they affect a large number of people and they increase the admission time in healthcare facilities. Additionally, its diagnosis is very tricky, requiring multiple medical exams. So, this work is focused on the development of a clinical decision support system to prevent these events from happening. The proposed solution is unique once it caters for the explicit treatment of incomplete, unknown, or even contradictory information under a logic programming basis, that to our knowledge is something that happens for the first time.

Length of Stay in Intensive Care Units - A Case Base Evaluation

As a matter of fact, an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stands for a hospital facility where patients require close observation and monitoring. Indeed, predicting Length-of-Stay (LoS) at ICUs is essential not only to provide them with improved Quality-of-Care, but also to help the hospital management to cope with hospital resources. Therefore, in this work one`s aim is to present an Artificial Intelligence based Decision Support System to assist on the prediction of LoS at ICUs, which will be centered on a formal framework based on a Logic Programming acquaintance for knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a Case Based approach to computing, and able to handle unknown, incomplete, or even contradictory data, information or knowledge.

An Assessment of Pharmacological Properties of Schinus Essential Oils: A Soft Computing Approach

Plants of genus Schinus are native South America and introduced in Mediterranean countries, a long time ago. Some Schinus species have been used in folk medicine, and Essential Oils of Schinus spp. (EOs) have been reported as having antimicrobial, anti-tumoural and anti-inflammatory properties. Such assets are related with the EOs chemical composition that depends largely on the species, the geographic and climatic region, and on the part of the plants used. Considering the difficulty to infer the pharmacological properties of EOs of Schinus species without a hard experimental setting, this work will focus on the development of an Artificial Intelligence grounded Decision Support System to predict pharmacological properties of Schinus EOs. The computational framework was built on top of a Logic Programming Case Base approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, which caters to the handling of incomplete, unknown, or even self-contradictory information. New clustering methods centered on an analysis of attribute’s similarities were used to distinguish and aggregate historical data according to the context under which it was added to the Case Base, therefore enhancing the prediction process.