Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policymakers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.

Metropolitan Governance and Institutional Design: Transportation in the Jakarta Metropolitan Region

In the Jakarta Metropolitan Region (JMR), the lack of co-ordination and appropriate governance has resulted in paralyzing traffic jams at the metropolitan scale that cannot be resolved by a single government entity. The issue of metropolitan governance is especially crucial here as the JMR lacks an established and formally pre-designed system of governance (e.g., in a constitution or other legal regulations). Instead, it relies on the interaction, coordination and cooperation of a multitude of different stakeholders, ranging from local and regional authorities to private entities and citizens. This chapter offers a discussion on the various governance approaches relating to an appropriate institutional design required for transportation issues at the metropolitan scale. The case used is a regional Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system as an extension to the metropolitan transport system. Institutional design analysis is applied to the case and three possible improvements - i) a ‘Megapolitan’ concept, ii) a regional spatial plan and iii) inter-local government cooperation; were identified that correspond to current debates on metropolitan governance approaches of regionalism, localism and new regionalism. The findings, which are relevant to similar metropolitan regions, suggest that i) improvements at the meso-level of institutional design are more readily accepted and effective than improvements at the macro-level and ii) that the appropriate institutional design for governing metropolitan transportation in the JMR requires enhanced coordination and cooperation amongst four important actors - local governments, the regional agency, the central government, and private companies.

An overview of top-down vs. bottom-up models for informal settlement upgrading in South Africa

The paper explores informal settlement upgrading approaches in South Africa and presents a review of top-down vs. bottom-up models, using experience and lessons learned from the Durban metropolitan area. Reflections on past upgrading efforts suggest that top-down policies in South Africa have not been successful to date. By contrast, participatory techniques, such as planning activism, can be used to enhance community empowerment and a sense of local ownership. This paper reveals that although the notion of ‘bottom-up’, participatory methods for community improvement is often discussed in international development discourses, the tools, processes and new knowledge needed to ensure a successful upgrade are under-utilised. Participation and collaboration can mean various things for informal housing upgrading and often the involvement of local communities is limited to providing feedback in already agreed development decisions from local authorities and construction companies. The paper concludes by suggesting directions for ‘co-producing’ knowledge with communities through participatory, action-research methods and integrating these insights into upgrading mechanisms and policies for housing and infrastructure provision. The cumulative impacts emerging from these approaches could aggregate into local, regional, and national environmental, social and economic benefits able to successfully transform urban areas and ensure self-reliance for local populations.

Measuring the cost of resilience

Air traffic management research lacks a framework for modelling the cost of resilience during disturbance. There is no universally accepted metric for cost resilience. The design of such a framework is presented and the modelling to date is reported. The framework allows performance assessment as a function of differential stakeholder uptake of strategic mechanisms designed to mitigate disturbance. Advanced metrics, cost- and non-cost-based, disaggregated by stakeholder sub-types, are described. A new cost resilience metric is proposed and exemplified with early test data.

Operating cost based cruise speed reduction for ground delay programs: Effect of scope length

Ground delay programs typically involve the delaying of aircraft that are departing from origin airports within some set distance of a capacity constrained destination airport. Long haul flights are not delayed in this way. A trade-off exists when fixing the distance parameter: increasing the ‘scope’ distributes delay among more aircraft and may reduce airborne holding delay but could also result in unnecessary delay in the (frequently observed) case of early program cancellation. In order to overcome part of this drawback, a fuel based cruise speed reduction strategy aimed at realizing airborne delay, was suggested by the authors in previous publications. By flying slower, at a specific speed, aircraft that are airborne can recover part of their initially assigned delay without incurring extra fuel consumption if the ground delay program is canceled before planned. In this paper, the effect of the scope of the program is assessed when applying this strategy. A case study is presented by analyzing all the ground delay programs that took place at San Francisco, Newark Liberty and Chicago O’Hare International airports during one year. Results show that by the introduction of this technique it is possible to define larger scopes, partially reducing the amount of unrecovered delay.

Cruise Speed Reduction for Ground Delay Programs: A Case Study for San Francisco International Airport Arrivals

Ground Delay Programs (GDP) are sometimes cancelled before their initial planned duration and for this reason aircraft are delayed when it is no longer needed. Recovering this delay usually leads to extra fuel consumption, since the aircraft will typically depart after having absorbed on ground their assigned delay and, therefore, they will need to cruise at more fuel consuming speeds. Past research has proposed speed reduction strategy aiming at splitting the GDP-assigned delay between ground and airborne delay, while using the same fuel as in nominal conditions. Being airborne earlier, an aircraft can speed up to nominal cruise speed and recover part of the GDP delay without incurring extra fuel consumption if the GDP is cancelled earlier than planned. In this paper, all GDP initiatives that occurred in San Francisco International Airport during 2006 are studied and characterised by a K-means algorithm into three different clusters. The centroids for these three clusters have been used to simulate three different GDPs at the airport by using a realistic set of inbound traffic and the Future Air Traffic Management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET). The amount of delay that can be recovered using this cruise speed reduction technique, as a function of the GDP cancellation time, has been computed and compared with the delay recovered with the current concept of operations. Simulations have been conducted in calm wind situation and without considering a radius of exemption. Results indicate that when aircraft depart early and fly at the slower speed they can recover additional delays, compared to current operations where all delays are absorbed prior to take-off, in the event the GDP cancels early. There is a variability of extra delay recovered, being more significant, in relative terms, for those GDPs with a relatively low amount of demand exceeding the airport capacity.

Effect of wind on operating cost based cruise speed reduction for delay absorption

En route speed reduction can be used for air traffic flow management (ATFM), e.g., delaying aircraft while airborne or realizing metering at an arrival fix. In previous publications, the authors identified the flight conditions that maximize the airborne delay without incurring extra fuel consumption with respect to the nominal (not delayed) flight. In this paper, the effect of wind on this strategy is studied, and the sensitivity to wind forecast errors is also assessed. A case study done in Chicago O’Hare airport (ORD) is presented, showing that wind has a significant effect on the airborne delay that can be realized and that, in some cases, even tailwinds might lead to an increase in the maximum amount of airborne delay. The values of airborne delay are representative enough to suggest that this speed reduction technique might be useful in a real operational scenario. Moreover, the speed reduction strategy is more robust than nominal operations against fuel consumption in the presence of wind forecast uncertainties.

En Route Speed Reduction Concept for Absorbing Air Traffic Flow Management Delays

This paper proposes an en route speed reduction to complement current ground delay practices in air traffic flow management. Given a nominal cruise speed, there exists a bounded range of speeds that allows aircraft to fly slower with the same or lower fuel consumption than the nominal flight. Therefore, flight times are increased and delay can be partially performed in the air, at no extra fuel cost for the operator. This concept has been analyzed in an initial feasibility study, computing the maximum amount of delay that can be performed in the air in some representative flights. The impact on fuel consumption has been analyzed, and two scenarios are proposed: the flight fuel remains the same as in the nominal flight, and some extra fuel allowance is permitted in order to face uncertainties. Results show significant values of airborne delay that may be useful in many situations, with the exception of short hauls where airborne delay may be too short. If cruise altitude is changed, the amount of airborne delay increases, since changes in cruise speed modify the optimal flight altitudes. From the analyzed flights, a linear dependency is found relating the airborne delay with the amount of extra fuel allowance.

Enabling Leg-Based Guidance on Top of Waypoint-Based Autopilots for UAS

This paper presents a methodology to extend the guidance functionalities of Commercial Off-The-Shelf autopilots currently available for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). Providing that most autopilots only support elemental waypoint-based guidance, this technique allows the aircraft to follow leg-based flight plans without needing to modify the internal control algorithms of the autopilot. It is discussed how to provide Direct to Fix, Track to Fix and Hold to Fix path terminators (along with Fly-Over and Fly-By waypoints) to basic autopilots able to natively execute only a limited set of legs. Preliminary results show the feasibility of the proposal with flight simulations that used a flexible and reconfigurable UAS architecture specifically designed to avoid dependencies with a single or particular autopilot solution.

Requirements, Issues, and Challenges for Sense and Avoid in Unmanned Aircraft Systems

The sense and avoid capability is one of the greatest challenges that has to be addressed to safely integrate unmanned aircraft systems into civil and nonsegregated airspace. This paper gives a review of existing regulations, recommended practices, and standards in sense and avoid for unmanned aircraft systems. Gaps and issues are identified, as are the different factors that are likely to affect actual sense and avoid requirements. It is found that the operational environment (flight altitude, meteorological conditions, and class of airspace) plays an important role when determining the type of flying hazards that the unmanned aircraft system might encounter. In addition, the automation level and the data-link architecture of the unmanned aircraft system are key factors that will definitely determine the sense and avoid system requirements. Tactical unmanned aircraft, performing similar missions to general aviation, are found to be the most challenging systems from an sense and avoid point of view, and further research and development efforts are still needed before their seamless integration into nonsegregated airspace

Testing a gravity-based accessibility instrument to engage stakeholders into integrated LUT planning

The paper starts from the concern that while there is a large body of literature focusing on the theoretical definitions and measurements of accessibility, the extent to which such measures are used in planning practice is less clear. Previous reviews of accessibility instruments have in fact identified a gap between the clear theoretical assumptions and the infrequent applications of accessibility instruments in spatial and transport planning. In this paper we present the results of a structured-workshop involving private and public stakeholders to test usability of gravity-based accessibility measures (GraBaM) to assess integrated land-use and transport policies. The research is part of the COST Action TU1002 “Accessibility Instruments for Planning Practice” during which different accessibility instruments where tested for different case studies. Here we report on the empirical case study of Rome.

Uses of agent-based modeling for health communication: the TELL ME case study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals’ protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.