Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Environmental impact assessment for energy planning

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

How green is green? A framework for environmental performance assessment in operations

This paper presents a framework based upon a relationship between environmental benefits and the investments and costs needed to implement and run company operations. As the results of environmental management become more evident it is proposed that the benefits rather than the environmental impacts are measured in the analysis of environmental performance. Four categories, or stages, are defined in this paper: “creative-green”, “expensive-green”, “inefficient-green or beginner”, and finally, the “complacent” stage. The paper describes the characteristics of each category and provides examples of indicators that could be used to measure environmental benefits. Qualitative and quantitative methods are necessary to classify companies according to the framework. It is believed that this paper can assist companies and public organisations to assess operations and projects considering their level of sustainability. The proposed framework can impact FDI and environmental policies in the public arena, and foster innovation on environmental practices within the private sector.

Conceptual Building Information Modelling Framework for Whole‐house Refurbishment based on LCC and LCA

The UK government aims at achieving 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 which requires collective efforts across all the UK industry sectors. In particular, the housing sector has a large potential to contribute to achieving the aim because the housing sector alone accounts for 27% of the total UK CO2 emission, and furthermore, 87% of the housing which is responsible for current 27% CO2 emission will still stand in 2050. Therefore, it is essential to improve energy efficiency of existing housing stock built with low energy efficiency standard. In order for this, a whole‐house needs to be refurbished in a sustainable way by considering the life time financial and environmental impacts of a refurbished house. However, the current refurbishment process seems to be challenging to generate a financially and environmentally affordable refurbishment solution due to the highly fragmented nature of refurbishment practice and a lack of knowledge and skills about whole‐house refurbishment in the construction industry. In order to generate an affordable refurbishment solution, diverse information regarding costs and environmental impacts of refurbishment measures and materials should be collected and integrated in right sequences throughout the refurbishment project life cycle among key project stakeholders. Consequently, various researchers increasingly study a way of utilizing Building Information Modelling (BIM) to tackle current problems in the construction industry because BIM can support construction professionals to manage construction projects in a collaborative manner by integrating diverse information, and to determine the best refurbishment solution among various alternatives by calculating the life cycle costs and lifetime CO2 performance of a refurbishment solution. Despite the capability of BIM, the BIM adoption rate is low with 25% in the housing sector and it has been rarely studied about a way of using BIM for housing refurbishment projects. Therefore, this research aims to develop a BIM framework to formulate a financially and environmentally affordable whole‐house refurbishment solution based on the Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods simultaneously. In order to achieve the aim, a BIM feasibility study was conducted as a pilot study to examine whether BIM is suitable for housing refurbishment, and a BIM framework was developed based on the grounded theory because there was no precedent research. After the development of a BIM framework, this framework was examined by a hypothetical case study using BIM input data collected from questionnaire survey regarding homeowners’ preferences for housing refurbishment. Finally, validation of the BIM framework was conducted among academics and professionals by providing the BIM framework and a formulated refurbishment solution based on the LCC and LCA studies through the framework. As a result, BIM was identified as suitable for housing refurbishment as a management tool, and it is timely for developing the BIM framework. The BIM framework with seven project stages was developed to formulate an affordable refurbishment solution. Through the case study, the Building Regulation is identified as the most affordable energy efficiency standard which renders the best LCC and LCA results when it is applied for whole‐house refurbishment solution. In addition, the Fabric Energy Efficiency Standard (FEES) is recommended when customers are willing to adopt high energy standard, and the maximum 60% of CO2 emissions can be reduced through whole‐house fabric refurbishment with the FEES. Furthermore, limitations and challenges to fully utilize BIM framework for housing refurbishment were revealed such as a lack of BIM objects with proper cost and environmental information, limited interoperability between different BIM software and limited information of LCC and LCA datasets in BIM system. Finally, the BIM framework was validated as suitable for housing refurbishment projects, and reviewers commented that the framework can be more practical if a specific BIM library for housing refurbishment with proper LCC and LCA datasets is developed. This research is expected to provide a systematic way of formulating a refurbishment solution using BIM, and to become a basis for further research on BIM for the housing sector to resolve the current limitations and challenges. Future research should enhance the BIM framework by developing more detailed process map and develop BIM objects with proper LCC and LCA Information.

Környezeti kockázatok felmérése. Paraméterek bizonytalanságának hatása a kockázatkezelési döntéshozatalra = Assessment of environmental risks – effects of parameter uncertainty to the risk management decisions

A környezeti kockázatok megfelelő felmérése és kezelése napjaink egyik legfontosabb kérdése, nemcsak a szakmai, hanem a széles értelemben vett közvélemény számára. A szerző cikkében azt vizsgálja, hogy a környezeti kockázatok felmérésének milyen megközelítései vannak. Kulcskérdésként pedig arra koncentrál, hogy a kockázatkezelési döntéseket hogyan befolyásolja a becslések bizonytalansága. Először a környezeti kockázat definícióját adja meg, majd azt mutatja be, hogy a környezeti kockázatok kezelésére vonatkozó megközelítések milyen párhuzamban állnak a pénzügyi rendszerrel, mint komplex rendszerre vonatkozó megközelítésekkel. Végül a jelenleg legnagyobb kockázatoknak tartott környezeti kockázatokat ismerteti röviden. A cikk második részében kockázatkezelési alternatívákat mutat be, és azt, hogy a kockázatkezelési lépések kiválasztását befolyásolja a bizonytalanság. Ezt illusztrálandó Brouwer-Blois (2008) modelljét használva a soklépéses szimulációt és alternatív döntési kritériumot – a kritikus (extrém) költség-hatás mutatót – alkalmazza. _____________ Adequate assessment and management of environmental risks is a key question nowadays also for professional experts and also for the overall public. In this article the author examines the different approaches concerning environmental risks. He concentrates as a key question the influence on risk management decisions of uncertainties raised by our estimations. First he analyses the definition of environmental risks, and he shows the similarities and differences between approaches concerning environmental risks and risks threatening financial system, and finally he gives short overview on the most current environmental risks. In the second part of the paper he presents risk management alternatives and analyses the influential power of uncertainty on risk management decisions. In order to illustrate this phenomenon the author applies the model of Brouwer-Blois (2008) with multistep simulation and an alternative decisive criterion, the ranking based on critical (extreme) cost to effect measure.

Natura 2000 erdők közgazdasági környezetének elemzése (Assessment of the economic environment of Natura 2000 forests)

Ebben a tanulmányban a Natura 2000 erdők közgazdasági kérdéseit jártuk körül az ökoszisztéma-szolgáltatások koncepciójának segítségével, nemzetközi és hazai szakirodalomra építve. Emellett a természetközeli erdőgazdálkodás fogalomkörét, s azon belül a folyamatos erdőborítást szolgáló erdőgazdálkodást vettük alapul. A következőkben néhány összegző megállapítást teszünk, és kijelölünk további kutatási irányokat. _____ This study has been prepared within the LIFEinFORESTS – Improved communication, cooperation and capacity building for preserving biodiversity in Natura 2000 forests (B2 action, LIFE13 INF/HU/001163) – project in the framework of LIFE+ Information and Communication under the contract signed with the Duna-Ipoly National Park Directorate. The main aim of the study is to summarize the international and Hungarian economic and environmental economic literature related to the Natura 2000 forests, and serve as a background study for the communication with and training of forest owners and users operating at Natura 2000 sites. The concept of ecosystem services (ESs) is used as an overall framework for the study. In our opinion it is able to show all the benefits provided by forests and can also help to reveal that the benefits of nature-oriented, continuous cover forest management (CCF) can exceed the benefits of traditional rotation forest management (RFM). The definition and the classification of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2003, 2005) is used throughout the study, so provisioning, cultural, regulating and supporting services are distinguished.

An exergy based engineering and economic analysis of sustainable building

To achieve the goal of sustainable development, the building energy system was evaluated from both the first and second law of thermodynamics point of view. The relationship between exergy destruction and sustainable development were discussed at first, followed by the description of the resource abundance model, the life cycle analysis model and the economic investment effectiveness model. By combining the forgoing models, a new sustainable index was proposed. Several green building case studies in U.S. and China were presented. The influences of building function, geographic location, climate pattern, the regional energy structure, and the technology improvement potential of renewable energy in the future were discussed. The building’s envelope, HVAC system, on-site renewable energy system life cycle analysis from energy, exergy, environmental and economic perspective were compared. It was found that climate pattern had a dramatic influence on the life cycle investment effectiveness of the building envelope. The building HVAC system energy performance was much better than its exergy performance. To further increase the exergy efficiency, renewable energy rather than fossil fuel should be used as the primary energy. A building life cycle cost and exergy consumption regression model was set up. The optimal building insulation level could be affected by either cost minimization or exergy consumption minimization approach. The exergy approach would cause better insulation than cost approach. The influence of energy price on the system selection strategy was discussed. Two photovoltaics (PV) systems—stand alone and grid tied system were compared by the life cycle assessment method. The superiority of the latter one was quite obvious. The analysis also showed that during its life span PV technology was less attractive economically because the electricity price in U.S. and China did not fully reflect the environmental burden associated with it. However if future energy price surges and PV system cost reductions were considered, the technology could be very promising for sustainable buildings in the future.

The use of hyphenated spectrometric techniques for the environmental forensic assessment of non-traditional pollutants and degradates in the greater Florida Everglades

A comprehensive investigation of sensitive ecosystems in South Florida with the main goal of determining the identity, spatial distribution, and sources of both organic biocides and trace elements in different environmental compartments is reported. This study presents the development and validation of a fractionation and isolation method of twelve polar acidic herbicides commonly applied in the vicinity of the study areas, including e.g. 2,4-D, MCPA, dichlorprop, mecroprop, picloram in surface water. Solid phase extraction (SPE) was used to isolate the analytes from abiotic matrices containing large amounts of dissolved organic material. Atmospheric-pressure ionization (API) with electrospray ionization in negative mode (ESP-) in a Quadrupole Ion Trap mass spectrometer was used to perform the characterization of the herbicides of interest. ^ The application of Laser Ablation-ICP-MS methodology in the analysis of soils and sediments is reported in this study. The analytical performance of the method was evaluated on certified standards and real soil and sediment samples. Residential soils were analyzed to evaluate feasibility of using the powerful technique as a routine and rapid method to monitor potential contaminated sites. Forty eight sediments were also collected from semi pristine areas in South Florida to conduct screening of baseline levels of bioavailable elements in support of risk evaluation. The LA-ICP-MS data were used to perform a statistical evaluation of the elemental composition as a tool for environmental forensics. ^ A LA-ICP-MS protocol was also developed and optimized for the elemental analysis of a wide range of elements in polymeric filters containing atmospheric dust. A quantitative strategy based on internal and external standards allowed for a rapid determination of airborne trace elements in filters containing both contemporary African dust and local dust emissions. These distributions were used to qualitative and quantitative assess differences of composition and to establish provenance and fluxes to protected regional ecosystems such as coral reefs and national parks. ^

An interactive environmental site assessment audit for Wagner Creek river basin clean up project

The primary purpose of this thesis was to design and create an Interactive Audit to conduct Environmental Site Assessments according to American Society of Testing Material's (ASTM) Phase I Standards at the Wagner Creek study area. ArcPad and ArcIMS are the major software that were used to create the model and ArcGIS Desktop was used for data analysis and to export shapefile symbology to ArcPad. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is an effective tool to deploy these purposes. This technology was utilized to carry out data collection, data analysis and to display data interactively on the Internet. Electronic forms, customized for mobile devices were used to survey sites. This is an easy and fast way to collect and modify field data. New data such as land use, recognized environmental conditions, and underground storage tanks can be added into existing datasets. An updated map is then generated and uploaded to the Internet using ArcIMS technology. The field investigator has the option to generate and view the Inspection Form at the end of his survey on site, or print a hardcopy at base. The mobile device also automatically generates preliminary editable Executive Reports for any inspected site.

An Exergy Based Engineering and Economic Analysis of Sustainable Building

To achieve the goal of sustainable development, the building energy system was evaluated from both the first and second law of thermodynamics point of view. The relationship between exergy destruction and sustainable development were discussed at first, followed by the description of the resource abundance model, the life cycle analysis model and the economic investment effectiveness model. By combining the forgoing models, a new sustainable index was proposed. Several green building case studies in U.S. and China were presented. The influences of building function, geographic location, climate pattern, the regional energy structure, and the technology improvement potential of renewable energy in the future were discussed. The building’s envelope, HVAC system, on-site renewable energy system life cycle analysis from energy, exergy, environmental and economic perspective were compared. It was found that climate pattern had a dramatic influence on the life cycle investment effectiveness of the building envelope. The building HVAC system energy performance was much better than its exergy performance. To further increase the exergy efficiency, renewable energy rather than fossil fuel should be used as the primary energy. A building life cycle cost and exergy consumption regression model was set up. The optimal building insulation level could be affected by either cost minimization or exergy consumption minimization approach. The exergy approach would cause better insulation than cost approach. The influence of energy price on the system selection strategy was discussed. Two photovoltaics (PV) systems – stand alone and grid tied system were compared by the life cycle assessment method. The superiority of the latter one was quite obvious. The analysis also showed that during its life span PV technology was less attractive economically because the electricity price in U.S. and China did not fully reflect the environmental burden associated with it. However if future energy price surges and PV system cost reductions were considered, the technology could be very promising for sustainable buildings in the future.