Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modelling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Exploring the spatial variation of take-all (Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici) for site-specific management

The fungus Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici (Ggt), commonly known as the take-all fungus, causes damage to roots of wheat and barley that limits crop growth and causes loss of yield. There was little knowledge on the within-field spatial variation of take-all and relations with features in the growing crop, selected soil properties and spectral information from remotely sensed imagery. Geostatistical analyses showed that take-all, chlorosis and leaf area index had similar patchy distributions. Many of the spectral bands from a hyperspectral image also had similar spatial patterns to take-all and chlorosis. Relations between take-all and mineral nitrogen, elevation and pH were generally weaker.

Hybridization between Brassica napus and B. rapa on a national scale in the United Kingdom

Measures blocking hybridization would prevent or reduce biotic or environmental change caused by gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops to wild relatives. The efficacy of any such measure depends on hybrid numbers within the legislative region over the life-span of the GM cultivar. We present a national assessment of hybridization between rapeseed (Brassica napus) and B. rapa from a combination of sources, including population surveys, remote sensing, pollen dispersal profiles, herbarium data, local Floras, and other floristic databases. Across the United Kingdom, we estimate that 32,000 hybrids form annually in waterside B. rapa populations, whereas the less abundant weedy populations contain 17,000 hybrids. These findings set targets for strategies to eliminate hybridization and represent the first step toward quantitative risk assessment on a national scale.

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) combines the information from a time sequence of observations with the model dynamics and a background state to produce an analysis. In this paper, a new mathematical insight into the behaviour of 4D-Var is gained from an extension of concepts that are used to assess the qualitative information content of observations in satellite retrievals. It is shown that the 4D-Var analysis increments can be written as a linear combination of the singular vectors of a matrix which is a function of both the observational and the forecast model systems. This formulation is used to consider the filtering and interpolating aspects of 4D-Var using idealized case-studies based on a simple model of baroclinic instability. The results of the 4D-Var case-studies exhibit the reconstruction of the state in unobserved regions as a consequence of the interpolation of observations through time. The results also exhibit the filtering of components with small spatial scales that correspond to noise, and the filtering of structures in unobserved regions. The singular vector perspective gives a very clear view of this filtering and interpolating by the 4D-Var algorithm and shows that the appropriate specification of the a priori statistics is vital to extract the largest possible amount of useful information from the observations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure?

Targeted observations are generally taken in regions of high baroclinicity, but often show little impact. One plausible explanation is that important dynamical information, such as upshear tilt, is not extracted from the targeted observations by the data assimilation scheme and used to correct initial condition error. This is investigated by generating pseudo targeted observations which contain a singular vector (SV) structure that is not present in the background field or routine observations, i.e. assuming that the background has an initial condition error with tilted growing structure. Experiments were performed for a single case-study with varying numbers of pseudo targeted observations. These were assimilated by the Met Office four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation scheme, which uses a 6 h window for observations and background-error covariances calculated using the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) method. The forecasts were run using the operational Met Office Unified Model on a 24 km grid. The results presented clearly demonstrate that a 6 h window 4D-Var system is capable of extracting baroclinic information from a limited set of observations and using it to correct initial condition error. To capture the SV structure well (projection of 0.72 in total energy), 50 sondes over an area of 1×106 km2 were required. When the SV was represented by only eight sondes along an example targeting flight track covering a smaller area, the projection onto the SV structure was lower; the resulting forecast perturbations showed an SV structure with increased tilt and reduced initial energy. The total energy contained in the perturbations decreased as the SV structure was less well described by the set of observations (i.e. as fewer pseudo observations were assimilated). The assimilated perturbation had lower energy than the SV unless the pseudo observations were assimilated with the dropsonde observation errors halved from operational values. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapeseed cytoplasm gives advantage in wild relatives and complicates genetically modified crop biocontainment

Biocontainment methods for genetically modified crops closest to commercial reality (chloroplast transformation, male sterility) would be compromised (in absolute terms) by seed-mediated gene flow leading to chloroplast capture. Even in these circumstances, however, it can be argued that biocontainment still represses transgene movement, with the efficacy depending on the relative frequency of seed-and pollen-mediated gene flow. In this study, we screened for crop-specific chloroplast markers from rapeseed (Brassica napus) amongst sympatric and allopatric populations of wild B. oleracea in natural cliff-top populations and B. rapa in riverside and weedy populations. We found only modest crop chloroplast presence in wild B. oleracea and in weedy B. rapa, but a surprisingly high incidence in sympatric (but not in allopatric) riverside B. rapa populations. Chloroplast inheritance models indicate that elevated crop chloroplast acquisition is best explained if crop cytoplasm confers selective advantage in riverside B. rapa populations. Our results therefore imply that chloroplast transformation may slow transgene recruitment in two settings, but actually accelerate transgene spread in a third. This finding suggests that the appropriateness of chloroplast transformation for biocontainment policy depends on both context and geographical location.

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

The effect of wheat straw residue on the emergence and early growth of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) and oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

The management of straw residue can be a concern in non-inversion tillage systems where straw tends to be incorporated at shallow depths or left on the soil surface. This can lead to poor crop establishment because straw residue can impede or hinder crop emergence and growth. Small container-based experiments were undertaken using varying amounts of wheat straw residue either incorporated or placed oil the soil surface. The effects on (lays to seedling emergence, percentage emergence, seedling dry-weight and soil temperature using sugar beet and oilseed rape were investigated because these crops often follow wheat in a cropping sequence. The position of the straw residue was found to be the primary factor in reducing crop emergence and growth. Increasing the amount of straw residue (from 3.3 t ha(-1) to 6.7 t ha(-1)) did not show any consistent trends in reducing crop emergence or growth. However, in some instances, results indicated that an interaction between the position and the amount of straw residue Occurred particularly when the straw and seed was placed on the soil surface. Straw placed on the soil surface significantly reduced mean day-time soil temperature by approximately 2.5 degrees C compared to no residue. When the seed and straw was placed on the soil Surface a lack of seed-to-soil contact caused a reduction in emergence by approximately 30% because of the restriction in available moisture that limited the ability for seed imbibition. This trend was reversed when the seed was placed in the soil, but with straw residue still on the soil surface, because the surface straw was likely to reduce moisture evaporation and improved seed-to-soil contact that led to rapid emergence. In general, when straw was mixed in or placed on the soil surface along with the seed, sugar beet and oilseed rape emergence and early growth biomass was significantly restricted by approximately 50% compared to no residue. The consequences of placing seed with or near to straw residue have been shown to cause a restriction in crop establishment. In both oilseed tape and sugar beet, this could lead to a reduction in final crop densities, poor, uneven growth and potentially lower yields that could lower financial margins. Therefore, if farmers are planning to use non-inversion tillage methods for crop establishment, the management and removal of straw residue from near or above the seed is considered important for successful crop establishment. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fitness of hybrids between rapeseed (Brassica napus) and wild Brassica rapa in natural habitats

Fitness of hybrids between genetically modified (GM) crops and wild relatives influences the likelihood of ecological harm. We measured fitness components in spontaneous (non-GM) rapeseed x Brassica rapa hybrids in natural populations. The F-1 hybrids yielded 46.9% seed output of B. rapa, were 16.9% as effective as males on B. rapa and exhibited increased self-pollination. Assuming 100% GM rapeseed cultivation, we conservatively predict < 7000 second-generation transgenic hybrids annually in the United Kingdom (i.e. similar to 20% of F-1 hybrids). Conversely, whilst reduced hybrid fitness improves feasibility of bio-containment, stage projection matrices suggests broad scope for some transgenes to offset this effect by enhancing fitness.

Infection of hybrid primula seeds by Botrytis cinerea and latent disease spread through the plants

Botrytis cinerea occurred commonly on cultivated Primula ×polyantha seed. The fungus was mostly on the outside of the seed but sometimes was present within the seed. The fungus frequently caused disease at maturity in plants grown from the seed, demonstrated by growing plants in a filtered airflow, isolated from other possible sources of infection. Young, commercially produced P. ×polyantha plants frequently had symptomless B. cinerea infections spread throughout the plants for up to 3 months, with symptoms appearing only at flowering. Single genetic individuals of B. cinerea, as determined by DNA fingerprinting, often were dispersed widely throughout an apparently healthy plant. Plants could, however, contain more than one isolate.