Mouse models and quantitative trait loci of susceptibility to bleomycin- and radiation-induced pulmonary fibrosis

Radiotherapy involving the thoracic cavity and chemotherapy with the drug bleomycin are both dose limited by the development of pulmonary fibrosis. From evidence that there is variation in the population in susceptibility to pulmonary fibrosis, and animal data, it was hypothesized that individual variation in susceptibility to bleomycin-induced, or radiation-induced, pulmonary fibrosis is, in part, genetically controlled. In this thesis a three generation mouse genetic model of C57BL/6J (fibrosis prone) and C3Hf/Kam (fibrosis resistant) mouse strains and F1 and F2 (F1 intercross) progeny derived from the parental strains was developed to investigate the genetic basis of susceptibility to fibrosis. In the bleomycin studies the mice received 100 mg/kg (125 for females) of bleomycin, via mini osmotic pump. The animals were sacrificed at eight weeks following treatment or when their breathing rate indicated respiratory distress. In the radiation studies the mice were given a single dose of 14 or 16 Gy (Co$\sp{60})$ to the whole thorax and were sacrificed when moribund. The phenotype was defined as the percent of fibrosis area in the left lung as quantified with image analysis of histological sections. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping was used to identify the chromosomal location of genes which contribute to susceptibility to bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in C57BL/6J mice compared to C3Hf/Kam mice and to determine if the QTL's which influence susceptibility to bleomycin-induced lung fibrosis in these progenitor strains could be implicated in susceptibility to radiation-induced lung fibrosis. For bleomycin, a genome wide scan revealed QTL's on chromosome 17, at the MHC, (LOD = 11.7 for males and 7.2 for females) accounting for approximately 21% of the phenotypic variance, and on chromosome 11 (LOD = 4.9), in male mice only, adding 8% of phenotypic variance. The bleomycin QTL on chromosome 17 was also implicated for susceptibility to radiation-induced fibrosis (LOD = 5.0) and contributes 7% of the phenotypic variance in the radiation study. In conclusion, susceptibility to both bleomycin-induced and radiation-induced pulmonary fibrosis are heritable traits, and are influenced by a genetic factor which maps to a genomic region containing the MHC. ^

Genetic predisposition to prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (PC) is a significant economic and health burden in the U.S. and Europe but its causes are largely unknown. The most significant risk factors (after gender) are age and family history of the disease. A gene with high penetrance but low frequency on chromosome 1q, HPC 1, has been suggested to cause a proportion of the familial aggregation of PC but other more common genes, conferring less risk, are also thought to contribute to disease predisposition. We have pursued a strategy to study both types of genetic risk in PC. To identify high penetrance genes, affected men from thirteen families have been genotyped for genetic linkage analysis at six microsatellite markers spanning 45 cM of 1q24-25. Both LOD score and non-parametric statistics provide no significant support for HPC1 in this genomic region, although 3 of the families did combine to produce a LOD score of 0.9. These families will be included in a genome wide search for other PC predisposition genes as part of a multinational collaboration.^ For study of common genetic factors in PC development, leukocyte DNA samples from an unselected series of 55 patients and 67 controls have been examined for genetic differences in two other candidate genes, the androgen receptor gene, hAR, at Xq11-12, and the vitamin D receptor gene, hVDR, at 12q12-14. hAR was typed for two trinucleotide repeat length polymorphisms, (CAG)$\rm\sb{n}$ and (GGC)$\rm\sb{n},$ encoding polyglutamine and polyglycine tracts, respectively, which have been implicated in PC susceptibility. These data, combined with similarly processed patients and controls from the U.K. show no consistent association of allele length with PC risk. A novel finding, however, has been a significant association between the number of GGC repeats and the length of time between diagnosis and relapse in stage T1-T4 Caucasian patients irrespective of therapy and age of the patient. Of 49 patients who relapsed out of 108 entering the study, those with 16 or fewer GGC repeats had an average relapse-free-period of 101 (+/$-$7.7) months while for those with more than 16 repeats the period averaged 48 (+/$-$2.9) months, a difference of 2.1 fold or 4.4 years.^ The second gene, hVDR, was genotyped at two polymorphisms, a synonymous C/T substitution in exon 9 identified by differential TaqI enzymatic digestion and a variable length polyA tract in the 3$\sp\prime$ UTR. Although these polymorphisms are in strong linkage disequilibrium only the polyA region showed a possible association with PC risk. Men homozygous for alleles with fewer than 18 A's had an increased risk (OR = 3.0, p = 0.0578) compared to controls. This result is opposite to the findings of others and may either indicate off-setting random errors which together balance out to no significant overall effect or reflect more complex genetic and/or environmental associations.^ Overall, this research suggests that single gene familial predisposition may be less prominent in PC than in other cancers and that the characteristics of PC pathology may be useful in identifying the effects of common genetic factors. ^

Risk factors associated with first symptomatic infection of {\it Cryptosporidium parvum\/} in an infant population in Bilbeis, Egypt

Diarrhea disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in children in developing countries. An estimate of the global mortality caused by diarrhea among children under five years of age was 3.3 million deaths per year. Cryptosporidium parvum was first identified in 1907, but it was not until 1970 that this organism was recognized as a cause of diarrhea in calves. Then it was as late as 1976 that the first reported case of human Cryptosporidiosis occurred. This study was conducted to ascertain the risk factors of first symptomatic infection with Cryptosporidium parvum in a cohort of infants in a rural area of Egypt. The cohort was followed from birth through the first year of life. Univariate and multivariate analyses of data demonstrated that infants greater than six months of age had a two-fold risk of infection compared with infants less than six months of age (RR = 2.17; 95% C.I. = 1.01-4.82). When stratified, male infants greater than six months of age were four times more likely to become infected than male infants less than six months of age. Among female infants, there was no difference in risk between infants greater than six months of age and infants less than six months of age. Female infants less than six months of age were twice more likely to become infected than male infants less than six months of age. The reverse occurred for infants greater than six months of age, i.e., male infants greater than six months of age had twice the risk of infection compared to females of the same age group. Further analysis of the data revealed an increased risk of Cryptosporidiosis infection in infants who were attended in childbirth by traditional childbirth attendants compared to infants who were attended by modern childbirth attendants (nurses, trained midwives, physicians) (RR = 4. 18; 95% C.I. = 1.05-36.06). The final risk factor of significance was the number of people residing in the household. Infants in households which housed more than seven persons had an almost two-fold risk of infection compared with infants in homes with fewer than seven persons. Other risk factors which suggested increased risk were lack of education among the mothers, absence of latrines and faucets in the homes, and mud used as building material for walls and floors in the homes. ^

HIV-related malignancies: A community-based study using a linkage of cancer registry and HIV registry data

Background. Increased incidence of cancer is documented in immunosuppressed transplant patients. Likewise, as survival increases for persons infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), we expect their incidence of cancer to increase. The objective of this study was to examine the current gender specific spectrum of cancer in an HIV infected cohort (especially malignancies not currently associated with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS)) in relation to the general population.^ Methods. Cancer incidence data was collected for residents of Harris County, Texas who were diagnosed with a malignancy between 1975 and 1994. This data was linked to HIV/AIDS registry data to identify malignancies in an HIV infected cohort of 14,986 persons. A standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis was used to compare incidence of cancer in this cohort to that in the general population. Risk factors such as mode of HIV infection, age, race and gender, were evaluated for contribution to the development of cancer within the HIV cohort, using Cox regression techniques.^ Findings. Of those in the HIV infected cohort, 2289 persons (15%) were identified as having one or more malignancies. The linkage identified 29.5% of these malignancies (males 28.7% females 60.9%). HIV infected men and women had incidences of cancer that were 16.7 (16.1, 17.3) and 2.9 (2.3, 3.7) times that expected for the general population of Harris County, Texas, adjusting for age. Significant SIR's were observed for the AIDS-defining malignancies of Kaposi's sarcoma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, primary lymphoma of the brain and cancer of the cervix. Additionally, significant SIR's for non-melanotic skin cancer in males, 6.9 (4.8, 9.5) and colon cancer in females, 4.0 (1.1, 10.2) were detected. Among the HIV infected cohort, race/ethnicity of White (relative risk 2.4 with 95% confidence intervals 2.0, 2.8) or Spanish Surname, 2.2 (1.9, 2.7) and an infection route of male to male sex, with, 3.0 (1.9, 4.9) or without, 3.4 (2.1, 5.5) intravenous drug use, increased the risk of having a diagnosis of an incident cancer.^ Interpretation. There appears to be an increased risk of developing cancer if infected with the HIV. In addition to the malignancies routinely associated with HIV infection, there appears to be an increased risk of being diagnosed with non-melanotic skin cancer in males and colon cancer in females. ^

A quality of life subscale for terminally ill cancer patients

A subscale was developed to assess the quality of life of cancer patients with a life expectancy of six months or less. Phase I of this study identified the major concerns of 74 terminally ill cancer patients (19 with breast cancer, 19 with lung cancer, 18 with colorectal cancer, 9 with renal cell cancer, 9 with prostate cancer), 39 family caregivers, and 20 health care professionals. Patients interviewed were being treated at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center or at the Hospice at the Texas Medical Center in Houston. In Phase II, 120 patients (30 with breast cancer, 30 with lung cancer, 30 with colorectal cancer, 15 with prostate cancer, and 15 with renal cell cancer) rated the importance of these concerns for quality of life. Items retained for the subscale were rated as "extremely important" or "very important" by at least 60% of the sample and were reported as being applicable by at least two-thirds of the sample. The 61 concerns that were identified were formatted as a questionnaire for Phase III. In Phase III, 356 patients (89 with breast cancer, 88 with lung cancer, 88 with colorectal cancer, 44 with prostate cancer, and 47 with renal cell cancer) were interviewed to determine the subscale's reliability and sensitivity to change in clinical status. Both factor analysis and item response theory supported the inclusion of the same 35 items for the subscale. Internal consistency reliability was moderate to high for the subscale's domains: spiritual (0.87), existential (0.76), medical care (0.68), symptoms (0.67), social/family (0.66), and emotional (0.61). Test-retest correlation coefficients also were high for the domains: social/family (0.86), emotional (0.83), medical care (0.83), spiritual (0.75), existential (0.75), and symptoms (0.81).^ In addition, concurrent validity was supported by the high correlation between the subscale's symptom domain and symptom items from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) scale (r = 0.74). Patients' functional status was assessed with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance status rating. When ECOG categories were compared to subscale domains, patients who scored lower in functional status had lower scores in the spiritual, existential, social/family, and emotional domains. Patients who scored lower in physical well-being had higher scores in the symptom domain. Patient scores in the medical care domain were similar for each ECOG category. The results of this study support the subscale's use in assessing quality of life and the outcomes of palliative treatment for cancer patients in their last six months of life. ^

Epidemiology of secondary leukemia with reference to chromosomal abnormalities

Secondary acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) have been recognized as one of the most feared long-term complications of cancer therapy. The aim of this case-control study was to determine the prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities and family history of cancer among secondary AML/MDS cases and de novo AML/MDS controls. Study population were 332 MD Anderson Cancer Center patients who were registered between 1986 and 1994. Cases were patients who had a prior invasive cancer before diagnoses of AML/MDS and controls were de novo AML/MDS. Cases (166) and controls (166) were frequency matched on age $\pm$5 years, sex and year of diagnosis of leukemia. Cytogenetic data were obtained from the leukemia clinic database of MD Anderson Cancer Center and data on family history of cancer and other risk factors were abstracted from the patients' medical record. The distribution of AML and MDS among cases was 58% and 42% respectively and among controls 67% and 33% respectively. Prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities were observed more frequently among cases than controls. Reporting of family history of cancer were similar among both groups. Univariate analysis revealed an odds ratio (OR) of 2.8 (95% CI 1.5-5.4) for deletion of chromosome 7, 1.9 (95% CI 0.9-3.8) for deletion of chromosome 5, 2.3 (95% CI 0.8-6.2) for deletion of 5q, 2.0 (95% CI 1.0-4.2) for trisomy 8, 1.3 (95% CI 0.8-2.1) for chromosomal abnormalities other than chromosome 5 or 7 and 1.3 (95% CI 0.8-2.0) for family history of cancer in a first degree relative. The OR remained significant for deletion of chromosome 7 (2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.8) after adjustment for age, alcohol, smoking, occupation related to chemical exposure and family history of cancer in a first degree relative. Of the 166 secondary AML/MDS patients 70% had a prior solid tumor and 30% experienced hematological cancers. The most frequent cancers were breast (21.1%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (13.3%), Hodgkin's disease (10.2%), prostate (7.2%), colon (6%), multiple myeloma (3.6%) and testes (3.0%). The majority of these cancer patients were treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy or both. Abnormalities of chromosome 5 or 7 were found to be more frequent in secondary AML/MDS patients with prior hematological cancer than patients with prior solid tumors. Median time to develop secondary AML/MDS was 5 years. However, secondary AML/MDS among patients who received chemotherapy and had a family history of cancer in a first degree relative occurred earlier (median 2.25 $\pm$ 0.9 years) than among patients without such family history (median 5.50 $\pm$ 0.18 years) (p $<$.03). The implication of exposure to chemotherapy among patients with a family history of cancer needs to be further investigated. ^

Hormonal risk factors and testicular cancer

The cause of testicular cancer is not known and recent hypotheses have suggested an altered hormonal milieu may increase the risk of testis cancer. This study examined modulation of testicular cancer risk by hormonal factors, specifically: environmental xenoestrogens (e.g. organochlorines), prenatal maternal estrogens, testosterone indices (age at puberty, severe adolescent acne, self-reported balding), sedentary lifestyle and dietary consumption of fats and phytoestrogens.^ A hospital based friend matched case-control study was conducted at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas, between January 1990 and October 1996. Cases had a first primary testis tumor diagnosed between age 18 to 50 years and resided in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma or Arkansas.^ Cases and friend controls completed a mail questionnaire and case/control mothers were contacted by phone regarding pregnancy related variables. The study population comprised 187 cases, 148 controls, 147 case mothers and 86 control mothers. Odds ratios were virtually identical whether the match was retained or dissolved, thus the analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression.^ Cryptorchidism was a strong risk factor for testis cancer with an age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 7.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-26.3). In a final model (adjusted for age, education, and cryptorchidism), history of severe adolescent acne and self-reported balding were both significantly protective, as hypothesized. For acne (yes vs. no) the OR was 0.5 (CI: 0.3-1.0) and for balding (yes vs. no) the OR was 0.6 (CI: 0.3-1.0). Marijuana smoking was a risk factor among heavy, regular users (17 times/week, OR = 2.4; CI: 0.9-6.4) and higher saturated fat intake increased testis cancer risk (saturated fat intake $>$ 15.2 grams/day vs. $<$ 11.8 grams/day, OR = 3.3; CI: 1.5-7.1). Early puberty, xenoestrogen exposure, elevated maternal estrogen levels, sedentary lifestyle and dietary phytoestrogen intake were not associated with risk of testicular cancer.^ In conclusion, testicular cancer may be associated with endogenous androgen metabolism although environmental estrogen exposure can not be ruled out. Further research is needed to understand the underlying hormonal mechanisms and possible dietary influences. ^

Incidence, etiology and risk factors of neonatal seizures Harris County, Texas, 1992--1994

This study was conducted to determine the incidence and etiology of neonatal seizures, and evaluate risk factors for this condition in Harris County, Texas, between 1992 and 1994. Potential cases were ascertained from four sources: discharge diagnoses at local hospitals, birth certificates, death certificates, and a clinical study of neonatal seizures conducted concurrent with this study at a large tertiary care center in Houston, Texas. The neonatal period was defined as the first 28 days of life for term infants, and up to 44 weeks gestation for preterm infants.^ There were 207 cases of neonatal seizures ascertained among 116,048 live births, yielding and incidence of 1.8 per 1000. Half of the seizures occurred by the third day of life, 70% within the first week, and 93% within the first 28 days of life. Among 48 preterm infants with seizures 15 had their initial seizure after the 28th day of life. About 25% of all seizures occurred after discharge from the hospital of birth.^ Idiopathic seizures occurred most frequently (0.5/1000 births), followed by seizures attributed to perinatal hypoxia/ischemia (0.4/1000 births), intracranial hemorrhage (0.2/1000 births), infection of the central nervous system (0.2/1000 births), and metabolic abnormalities (0.1/1000 births).^ Risk factors were evaluated based on birth certificate information, using univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression). Factors considered included birth weight, gender, ethnicity, place of birth, mother's age, method of delivery, parity, multiple birth and, among term infants, small birth weight for gestational age (SGA). Among preterm infants, very low birth weight (VLBW, $<$1500 grams) was the strongest risk factor, followed by birth in private/university hospitals with a Level III nursery compared with hospitals with a Level II nursery (RR = 2.9), and male sex (RR = 1.8). The effect of very low birth weight varied according to ethnicity. Compared to preterm infants weighing 2000-2999 grams, non-white VLBW infants were 12.0 times as likely to have seizures; whereas white VLBW infants were 2.5 times as likely. Among term infants, significant risk factors included SGA (RR = 1.8), birth in Level III nursery private/university hospitals versus hospitals with Level II nursery (RR = 2.0), and birth by cesarean section (RR = 2.2). ^

Birth defects among surviving children under seven years of age in Tianjin, China

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality in the developed countries. They are also of increasing concern in many developing countries, such as China. However, prevalence and causes of birth defects in China are inadequately understood.^ The purpose of the present study was to estimated prevalence of birth defects in surviving children under seven years of age in Tianjin, China and investigate determinants of birth defects in the study area.^ The present study took place in Tianjin, China in 1986, involving 22,081 surviving children under seven years of age. Children with birth defects were ascertained through physical examinations by physicians during household visits and ascertainment of birth defects was verified through multiple sources. Of 22,081 surviving children, 524 had birth defects (23.7 per 1,000). The study noted a striking discrepancy in the prevalence of birth defects between urban and rural area. The prevalence of birth defects was 16.3 per 1,000 in the urban and 33.2 per 1,000 in the rural area.^ Using cases of birth defects ascertained from surviving children, a case-control study was carried out. The study observed that first-trimester maternal flu was associated with increased risk of both major and minor birth defects in children after controlling for other maternal factors (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 8.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.3-17.3; OR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.7-7.5). This association could be biased by different reporting of exposure between mothers of children with birth defects and mothers of children without defects. This study indicated that maternal flu was also associated with congenital heart defects and polydactyly after controlling for other maternal factors (adjusted OR = 32.3, 95% CI = 13.3-78.3; adjusted OR = 5.5, 95% CI = 1.1-27.7). The associations remained when affected controls (children with similar birth defects other than congenital heart defects or polydactyly) were used (adjusted OR = 4.3, 95% CI = 1.2-15.3; OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.4-7.9). A weak association between first-trimester vaginal bleeding and selected groups of birth defects was found in this study, but the association may be confounded by other factors. Maternal smoking during pregnancy was modestly associated with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (OR = 1.4, 95% = 0.4-4.9), but the association may be due to chance. Some major limitations in this study warrant caution in interpretation of the findings, especially the causal relation. ^

Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae in children with pneumonia

In order to identify optimal therapy for children with bacterial pneumonia, Pakistan's ARI Program, in collaboration with the National Institute of Health (NIH), Islamabad, undertook a national surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae. The project was carried out at selected urban and peripheral sites in 6 different regions of Pakistan, in 1991–92. Nasopharyngeal (NP) specimens and blood cultures were obtained from children with pneumonia diagnosed in the outpatient clinic of participating facilities. Organisms were isolated by local hospital laboratories and sent to NIH for confirmation, serotyping and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Following were the aims of the study (i) to determine the antimicrobial resistance patterns of S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae in children aged 2–59 months; (ii) to determine the ability of selected laboratories to identify and effectively transport isolates of S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae cultured from nasopharyngeal and blood specimens; (iii) to validate the comparability of resistance patterns for nasopharyngeal and blood isolates of S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae from children with pneumonia; and (iv) to examine the effect of drug resistance and laboratory error on the cost of effectively treating children with ARI. ^ A total of 1293 children with ARI were included in the study: 969 (75%) from urban areas and 324 (25%) from rural parts of the country. Of 1293, there were 786 (61%) male and 507 (39%) female children. The resistance rate of S. pneumoniae to various antibiotics among the urban children with ARI was: TMP/SMX (62%); chloramphenicol (23%); penicillin (5%); tetracycline (16%); and ampicillin/amoxicillin (0%). The rates of resistance of H. influenzae were higher than S. pneumoniae: TMP/SMX (85%); chloramphenicol (62%); penicillin (59%); ampicillin/amoxicillin (46%); and tetracycline (100%). There were similar rates of resistance to each antimicrobial agent among isolates from the rural children. ^ Of a total 614 specimens that were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility, 432 (70.4%) were resistant to TMP/SMX and 93 (15.2%) were resistant to antimicrobial agents other than TMP/SMX viz. ampicillin/amoxicillin, chloramphenicol, penicillin, and tetracycline. ^ The sensitivity and positive predictive value of peripheral laboratories for H. influenzae were 99% and 65%, respectively. Similarly, the sensitivity and positive predictive value of peripheral laboratory tests compared to gold standard i.e. NIH laboratory, for S. pneumoniae were 99% and 54%, respectively. ^ The sensitivity and positive predictive value of nasopharyngeal specimens compared to blood cultures (gold standard), isolated by the peripheral laboratories, for H. influenzae were 88% and 11%, and for S. pneumoniae 92% and 39%, respectively. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Esx1 is an X-chromosome-imprinted regulator of placental formation and fetal growth

Placental formation and genomic imprinting are two important features of embryonic development in placental mammals. Genetic studies have demonstrated that imprinted genes play a prominent role in regulating placental formation. In marsupials, mice and humans, the paternally derived X chromosome is preferentially inactivated in the placental tissues of female embryos. This special form of genomic imprinting may have evolved under the same selective forces as autosomal imprinted genes. This chromosomal imprinting phenomenon predicts the existence of maternally expressed X-linked genes that regulate placental development.^ In this study, an X-linked homeobox gene, designated Esx1 has been isolated. During embryogenesis, Esx1 was expressed in a subset of placental tissues and regulates formation of the chorioallantoic placenta. Esx1 acted as an imprinted gene. Heterozygous female mice that inherit an Esx1-null allele from their father developed normally. However, heterozygous females that inherit the Esx1 mutation from their mother were born 20% smaller than normal and had an identical phenotype to hemizygous mutant males and homozygous mutant females. Surprisingly, although Esx1 mutant embryos were initially comparable in size to wild-type controls at 13.5 days post coitum (E13.5) their placentas were significantly larger (51% heavier than controls). Defects in the morphogenesis of the labyrinthine layer were observed as early as E11.5. Subsequently, vascularization abnormalities developed at the maternal-fetal interface, causing fetal growth retardation. These results identify Esx1 as the first essential X-chromosome-imprinted regulator of placental development that influences fetal growth and may have important implications in understanding human placental insufficiency syndromes such as intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR). ^

A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Risk, outcomes, and cost of emergency center visits in cancer patients

Cancer is a chronic disease that often necessitates recurrent hospitalizations, a costly pattern of medical care utilization. In chronically ill patients, most readmissions are for treatment of the same condition that caused the preceding hospitalization. There is concern that rather than reducing costs, earlier discharge may shift costs from the initial hospitalization to emergency center visits. ^ This is the first descriptive study to measure the incidence of emergency center visits (ECVs) after hospitalization at The University of M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC), to identify the risk factors for and outcomes of these ECVs, and to compare 30-day all-cause mortality and costs for episodes of care with and without ECVs. ^ We identified all hospitalizations at UTMDACC with admission dates from September 1, 1993 through August 31, 1997 which met inclusion criteria. Data were electronically obtained primarily from UTMDACC's institutional database. Demographic factors, clinical factors, duration of the index hospitalization, method of payment for care, and year of hospitalization study were variables determined for each hospitalization. ^ The overall incidence of ECVs was 18%. Forty-five percent of ECVs resulted in hospital readmission (8% of all hospitalizations). In 1% of ECVs the patient died in the emergency center, and for the remaining 54% of ECVs the patient was discharged home. Risk factors for ECVs were marital status, type of index hospitalization, cancer type, and duration of the index hospitalization. The overall 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 8.6% for hospitalizations with an ECV and 5.3% for those without an ECV. In all subgroups, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was higher for groups with ECVs than for those without ECVs. The most important factor increasing cost was having an ECV. In all patient subgroups, the cost per episode of care with an ECV was at least 1.9 times the cost per episode without an ECV. ^ The higher costs and poorer outcomes of episodes of care with ECVs and hospital readmissions suggest that interventions to avoid these ECVs or mitigate their costs are needed. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the methodological issues involved in relation to health care issues for cancer patients. ^

Detection of enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli in foods by polymerase chain reaction

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) causes significant morbidity and mortality in infants of developing countries and is the most common cause of diarrhea in travelers to these areas. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli infections are commonly caused by ingestion of fecally contaminated food. A timely method for the detection of ETEC in foods would be important in the prevention of this disease. A multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay which has been successful in detecting the heat-labile and heat-stable toxins of ETEC in stool was examined to determine its utility in foods. This PCR assay, preceded by a glass matrix and chaotropic DNA extraction, was effective in detecting high numbers of ETEC in a variety of foods. Ninety percent of 121 spiked food samples yielded positive results. Samples of salsa from Guadalajara, Mexico and Houston, Texas were collected and underwent DNA extraction and PCR. All samples yielded negative results for both the heat-labile and heat-stable toxins. Samples were also subjected to oligonucleotide probe analysis and resulted in 5 samples positive for ETEC. Upon dilution testing, it was found that positive PCR results only occurred when 12,000 to 1,000,000 bacteria were present in 200 mg of food. Although the DNA extraction and PCR method has been shown to be both sensitive and specific in stool, similar results were not obtained in food samples. ^