Simultaneous optimization by neuro-genetic approach for analysis of plant materials by laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

A simultaneous optimization strategy based on a neuro-genetic approach is proposed for selection of laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions for the simultaneous determination of macronutrients (Ca, Mg and P), micro-nutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn), Al and Si in plant samples. A laser induced breakdown spectroscopy system equipped with a 10 Hz Q-switched Nd:YAG laser (12 ns, 532 nm, 140 mJ) and an Echelle spectrometer with intensified coupled-charge device was used. Integration time gate, delay time, amplification gain and number of pulses were optimized. Pellets of spinach leaves (NIST 1570a) were employed as laboratory samples. In order to find a model that could correlate laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions with compromised high peak areas of all elements simultaneously, a Bayesian Regularized Artificial Neural Network approach was employed. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm was applied to find optimal conditions for the neural network model, in an approach called neuro-genetic, A single laser induced breakdown spectroscopy working condition that maximizes peak areas of all elements simultaneously, was obtained with the following optimized parameters: 9.0 mu s integration time gate, 1.1 mu s delay time, 225 (a.u.) amplification gain and 30 accumulated laser pulses. The proposed approach is a useful and a suitable tool for the optimization process of such a complex analytical problem. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust model predictive control with zone control

Model predictive control (MPC) is usually implemented as a control strategy where the system outputs are controlled within specified zones, instead of fixed set points. One strategy to implement the zone control is by means of the selection of different weights for the output error in the control cost function. A disadvantage of this approach is that closed-loop stability cannot be guaranteed, as a different linear controller may be activated at each time step. A way to implement a stable zone control is by means of the use of an infinite horizon cost in which the set point is an additional variable of the control problem. In this case, the set point is restricted to remain inside the output zone and an appropriate output slack variable is included in the optimisation problem to assure the recursive feasibility of the control optimisation problem. Following this approach, a robust MPC is developed for the case of multi-model uncertainty of open-loop stable systems. The controller is devoted to maintain the outputs within their corresponding feasible zone, while reaching the desired optimal input target. Simulation of a process of the oil re. ning industry illustrates the performance of the proposed strategy.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Modification of the in vivo four-point loading model for studying mechanically induced bone adaptation

We modified the noninvasive, in vivo technique for strain application in the tibiae of rats (Turner et al,, Bone 12:73-79, 1991), The original model applies four-point bending to right tibiae via an open-loop, stepper-motor-driven spring linkage, Depending on the magnitude of applied load, the model produces new bone formation at periosteal (Ps) or endocortical surfaces (Ec.S). Due to the spring linkage, however, the range of frequencies at which loads can be applied is limited. The modified system replaces this design with an electromagnetic vibrator. A load transducer in series with the loading points allows calibration, the loaders' position to be adjusted, and cyclic loading completed under load central as a closed servo-loop. Two experiments were conducted to validate the modified system: (1) a strain gauge was applied to the lateral surface of the right tibia of 5 adult female rats and strains measured at applied loads from 10 to 60 N; and (2) the bone formation response was determined in 28 adult female Sprague-Dawley rats. Loading was applied as a haversine wave with a frequency of 2 Hz for 18 sec, every second day for 10 days. Peak bending loads mere applied at 33, 40, 52, and 64 N, and a sham-loading group tr as included at 64 N, Strains in the tibiae were linear between 10 and 60 N, and the average peak strain at the Ps.S at 60 N was 2664 +/- 250 microstrain, consistent with the results of Turner's group. Lamellar bone formation was stimulated at the Ec.S by applied bending, but not by sham loading. Bending strains above a loading threshold of 40 N increased Ec Lamellar hone formation rate, bone forming surface, and mineral apposition rate with a dose response similar to that reported by Turner et al, (J Bone Miner Res 9:87-97, 1994). We conclude that the modified loading system offers precision for applied loads of between 0 and 70 N, versatility in the selection of loading rates up to 20 Hz, and a reproducible bone formation response in the rat tibia, Adjustment of the loader also enables study of mechanical usage in murine tibia, an advantage with respect to the increasing variety of transgenic strains available in bone and mineral research. (Bone 23:307-310; 1998) (C) 1998 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Likelihood-based estimation of the regression model with scrambled responses

A significant problem in the collection of responses to potentially sensitive questions, such as relating to illegal, immoral or embarrassing activities, is non-sampling error due to refusal to respond or false responses. Eichhorn & Hayre (1983) suggested the use of scrambled responses to reduce this form of bias. This paper considers a linear regression model in which the dependent variable is unobserved but for which the sum or product with a scrambling random variable of known distribution, is known. The performance of two likelihood-based estimators is investigated, namely of a Bayesian estimator achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme, and a classical maximum-likelihood estimator. These two estimators and an estimator suggested by Singh, Joarder & King (1996) are compared. Monte Carlo results show that the Bayesian estimator outperforms the classical estimators in almost all cases, and the relative performance of the Bayesian estimator improves as the responses become more scrambled.

A context noise model of episodic word recognition

Item noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the words from the study list. Context noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the contexts in which the test word has appeared. The authors introduce the bind cue decide model of episodic memory, a Bayesian context noise model, and demonstrate how it can account for data from the item noise and dual-processing approaches to recognition memory. From the item noise perspective, list strength and list length effects, the mirror effect for word frequency and concreteness, and the effects of the similarity of other words in a list are considered. From the dual-processing perspective, process dissociation data on the effects of length, temporal separation of lists, strength, and diagnosticity of context are examined. The authors conclude that the context noise approach to recognition is a viable alternative to existing approaches.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Social rules and attributions in the personnel selection interview

The study investigated the social rules applicable to selection interviews, and the attributions ions made by interviewers in response to rule-breaking behaviours by candidates. Sixty personnel specialists (31 males and 29 females) participated in the main study which examined their perceptions of social rules and attributions about rule breaking in their work experience. They listened to audiotapes of actual selection interviews, and made judgments about hireability communication competence, and specific social rules. Results indicated that interview rules could be categorized into two groups: specific interview presentation skills and general interpersonal competence. While situational attributions were more salient in explaining the breaking of general interpersonal competence rules, internal attributions (ability, effort) were more salient explanations for the breaking of more specific interview rules (with the exception of the preparation rule where lack of effort was the most likely explanation for rule breaking). Candidates previously judged as competent communicators were rated more favourably on both global and specific measures of rule-following competence, as well as on hireability. The theoretical and practical implications of combining social rules and attribution theory in the study of selection interviews are discussed.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.