Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Evaluation of the causal pathways through which subjective norms influence mammography intention and stage of change in a national sample of women veterans

Few studies have investigated causal pathways linking psychosocial factors to each other and to screening mammography. Conflicting hypotheses exist in the theoretic literature regarding the role and importance of subjective norms, a person's perceived social pressure to perform the behavior and his/her motivation to comply. The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) hypothesizes that subjective norms directly affect intention; while the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) hypothesizes that attitudes mediate the influence of subjective norms on stage of change. No one has examined which hypothesis best predicts the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change. Two statistical methods are available for testing mediation, sequential regression analysis (SRA) and latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM); however, software to apply LVSEM to dichotomous variables like intention has only recently become available. No one has compared the methods to determine whether or not they yield similar results for dichotomous variables. ^ Study objectives were to: (1) determine whether the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change are mediated by pros and cons; and (2) compare mediation results from the SRA and LVSEM approaches when the outcome is dichotomous. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a national sample of women veterans enrolled in Project H.O.M.E. (H&barbelow;ealthy O&barbelow;utlook on the M&barbelow;ammography E&barbelow;xperience), a behavioral intervention trial. ^ Results showed that the TTM model described the causal pathways better than the TRA one; however, we found support for only one of the TTM causal mechanisms. Cons was the sole mediator. The mediated effect of subjective norms on intention and stage of change by cons was very small. These findings suggest that interventionists focus their efforts on reducing negative attitudes toward mammography when resources are limited. ^ Both the SRA and LVSEM methods provided evidence for complete mediation, and the direction, magnitude, and standard errors of the parameter estimates were very similar. Because SRA parameter estimates were not biased toward the null, we can probably assume negligible measurement error in the independent and mediator variables. Simulation studies are needed to further our understanding of how these two methods perform under different data conditions. ^

If we call them, will they change? Feasibility of a telephone adaptation of motivational interviewing aimed at parents to reduce television time among 2nd and 4th grade children

Television viewing is a sedentary behavior that is modifiable. Reducing media-related behaviors via parent-focused interventions may hold promise for decreasing childhood obesity. This feasibility study examines a novel parent-centered brief telephone-delivered Motivational Enhancement Interview (MEI) to encourage parents of 2nd and 4th graders to set a rules limiting TV time or remove the TV from the child's bedroom. This quasi-experimental sub-study was part of the larger CATCH: En Vivo pilot study conducted in a Hispanic population in the Texas Rio Grande Valley. Parents in the MEI condition were contacted via telephone and encouraged to meet the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommended 2 hours per day or less of TV. Unconditional logistic regression was used to analyze the data. At post-test, 85% of parents of 4th graders in the MEI group (compared to 71% at pre-test) reported having a rule limiting TV time. The adjusted odds ratio for the MEI group compared to the control group was 3.88, 95% CI (0.72-20.99). At pre-test, 63.16% of 2nd graders had a television in their bedrooms. The 2nd grade MEI intervention reduced that number to 41.03% (OR=0.25, 95%CI (0.08-0.82)). This first look at using MEI to target parents of children to modify TV behavior presents evidence on a promising strategy for modifying children's home media environment and warrants further investigation. ^

Stages of change and carotene intake in the Paso del Norte region: Que Sabrosa Vida

Understanding a population's dietary behavior is important to promote behaviors which have the most beneficial impact on health. The most recent Dietary Guidelines for Americans (2005) identifies carotenoids as a key nutrient to be consumed through increased intake of fruits and vegetables (FV). While some studies have included or focused on the Hispanic population, few have focused only on Mexican-American populations and staged its intake of FV. Stage of change behavior theory has been used to understand the adoption and promotion of healthy behaviors such as increased intake of FV. It has been shown to effectively aid interventionists' understanding of dietary behavior. Intake patterns of FV of older women, rural residents, and adolescents of Mexican American descent have been conducted but not by stages of change. This study aimed to determine the relationship between stages of change for fruits and vegetables (SOC-FV) and total carotene intake to assess the quality of SOC-FV as a surrogate measure of total carotene. ^ Data from the 2000 Qué Sabrosa Vida Community Nutrition Survey (QSV-CNS) were analyzed to identify the SOC-FV and sources of carotenes in a Mexican American population 18-60 yrs. of the Paso del Norte region. A 107 item interviewer administered food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) specifically calibrated for a Mexican American population was used to collect usual intake of total carotene. The QSV survey study population included 963 participants, 590 (61.3%) women and 373 (38.7%) men. A statistically significant mean difference in caloric intake between men and women was found (p-value = <0.01). When total carotene intake was adjusted for energy, there were significant differences between men and women (p-value = <0.0001) with women consuming a higher amount of total carotene (406 RE/kcal 1,000) than men (332 RE/kcal 1000). The food sources of total carotene for both genders included many items found in a traditional Mexican American diet. Chile, after carrots, was the highest contributor of dietary carotene. Total carotene intake was not associated with stages of change among women or men and their distributions were not linear. Mean differences of total carotene by stages of change were significant for women for pre-contemplation/contemplation (p-value = 0.04) and preparation (p-value = 0.0004) but not for men. ^ SOC-FV may serve as a surrogate measure for dietary carotene intake. This study's Mexican American population had a high carotene quality diet derived from traditional food items irrespective of their stage of change for fruits and vegetables. To better understand this population's dietary intake a measure for acculturation should be included. Interventions aimed at Mexican American populations should aim to promote traditional diets consistent with cultural practices.^ ^

Goals, plans, and behavior changes: A relevant part of the post-treatment cancer experience

Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors have to manage treatment side effects, psychosocial issues, and co-morbidities, as well as modify their lifestyles to decrease risk of recurrence and prolong life. Identifying survivors’ goals and key factors that influence their goals will highlight the issues cancer survivors face post-treatment and the resources needed to help them engage in health-promoting behaviors.^ Objectives and methods. This dissertation examines the health-related goals of post-treatment CRC survivors using two studies: (1) a qualitative study to identify and describe the health goals of CRC survivors during the transition from active treatment to post-treatment survivorship and follow-up care; and (2) a cross-sectional survey to identify CRC survivors’ goals, and key factors that influence their goals.^ Results. (1) The 41 qualitative interviews indicated participants’ health-related goals were to be healthy, get back to normal, and not have a cancer recurrence. Most of the CRC survivors reported they maintained healthy behaviors, made healthy behavior changes, or had goals to change their behavior. Respondents were empowered to improve their health by maintaining follow-up care and regular health screenings, and many were managing treatment side effects in an effort to improve functional abilities. (2) The cross-sectional study found that CRC survivors’ most prevalent goals were related to healthy behaviors (i.e., eat a healthy diet and engage in physical activity), and cancer care or disease management (i.e., keep up with health screenings and monitor symptoms). Goals that survivors identified as important were similar to goals they perceived were important to their providers (i.e., goals related to cancer care, disease management). Certain goals were statistically associated with age, barriers to achieving goals, social support and health-related quality of life.^ Conclusions. CRC survivors have health-promoting goals post-treatment and are interested in making health behavior changes. Goals ranged from cancer care/surveillance and disease management to healthy lifestyle modifications. Patients may need help resolving or managing treatment side effects or co-morbidities prior to implementing health promoting behaviors. Healthcare providers’ recommendations may be a powerful resource to encourage survivors to engage in health-promoting behaviors. Self-management and goal setting support could be an appropriate strategy to assist patients with achieving their post-treatment health goals.^

Effects of a health advocacy program to promote physical activity and nutrition behaviors among adolescents: An evaluation of the Young Leaders for Healthy Change program

Background. This study was designed to evaluate the effects of the Young Leaders for Healthy Change program, an internet-delivered program in the school setting that emphasized health advocacy skills-development, on nutrition and physical activity behaviors among older adolescents (13–18 years). The program consisted of online curricular modules, training modules, social media, peer and parental support, and a community service project. Module content was developed based on Social Cognitive Theory and known determinants of behavior for older adolescents. ^ Methods. Of the 283 students who participated in the fall 2011 YL program, 38 students participated in at least ten of the 12 weeks and were eligible for this study. This study used a single group-only pretest/posttest evaluation design. Participants were 68% female, 58% white/Caucasian, 74% 10th or 11th graders, and 89% mostly A and/or B students. The primary behavioral outcomes for this analysis were participation in 60-minutes of physical activity per day, 20-minutes of vigorous- or moderate- intensity physical activity (MVPA) participation per day, television and computer time, fruit and vegetable (FV) intake, sugar-sweetened beverage intake, and consumption of breakfast, home-cooked meals, and fast food. Other outcomes included knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes related to healthy eating, physical activity, and advocacy skills. ^ Findings. Among the 38 participants, no significant changes in any variables were observed. However, among those who did not previously meet behavioral goals there was an 89% increase in students who participated in more than 20 minutes of MVPA per day and a 58% increase in students who ate home-cooked meals 5–7 days per week. The majority of participants met program goals related to knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes prior to the start of the program. Participants reported either maintaining or improving to the goal at posttest for all items except FV intake knowledge, taste and affordability of healthy foods, interest in teaching others about being healthy, and ease of finding ways to advocate in the community. ^ Conclusions. The results of this evaluation indicated that promoting healthy behaviors requires different strategies than maintaining healthy behaviors among high school students. In the school setting, programs need to target the promotion and maintenance of health behaviors to engage all students who participate in the program as part of a class or club activity. Tailoring the program using screening and modifying strategies to meet the needs of all students may increase the potential reach of the program. The Transtheoretical Model may provide information on how to develop a tailored program. Additional research on how to utilize the constructs of TTM effectively among high school students needs to be conducted. Further evaluation studies should employ a more expansive evaluation to assess the long-term effectiveness of health advocacy programming.^

Seawater carbonate chemistry and auditory behavior of Orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) during experiments, 2011

Ocean acidification is predicted to affect marine ecosystems in many ways, including modification of fish behaviour. Previous studies have identified effects of CO2-enriched conditions on the sensory behaviour of fishes, including the loss of natural responses to odours resulting in ecologically deleterious decisions. Many fishes also rely on hearing for orientation, habitat selection, predator avoidance and communication. We used an auditory choice chamber to study the influence of CO2-enriched conditions on directional responses of juvenile clownfish (Amphiprion percula) to daytime reef noise. Rearing and test conditions were based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions for the twenty-first century: current-day ambient, 600, 700 and 900 µatm pCO2. Juveniles from ambient CO2-conditions significantly avoided the reef noise, as expected, but this behaviour was absent in juveniles from CO2-enriched conditions. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence that ocean acidification affects the auditory response of fishes, with potentially detrimental impacts on early survival.

Influence of cement properties in the reaction rate and mechanical behavior of concrete with high fl y ash content

The use of fly ash (FA) as an admixture to concrete is broadly extended for two main reasons: the reduction of costs that supposes the substitution of cement and the micro structural changes motivated by the mineral admixture. Regarding this second point, there is a consensus that considers that the ash generates a more compact concrete and a reduction in the size of the pore. However, the measure in which this contributes to the pozzolanic activity or as filler is not well defined. There is also no justification to the influence of the physical parameters, fineness of the grain and free water, in its behavior. This work studies the use of FA as a partial substitute of the cement in concretes of different workability (dry and wet) and the influence in the reactivity of the ash. The concrete of dry consistency which serves as reference uses a cement dose of 250 Kg/m 3 and the concrete of fluid consistency utilized a dose of cement of 350 Kg/m 3 . Two trademark of Portland Cement Type 1 were used. The first reached the resistant class for its fineness of grain and the second one for its composition. Moreover, three doses of FA have been used, and the water/binder ratio was constant in all the mixtures. We have studied the mechanical properties and the micro-structure of the concretes by means of compressive strength tests, mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and thermal analysis (TA). The results of compressive strength tests allow us to observe that concrete mixtures with cements of the same classification and similar dosage of binder do not present the same mechanical behavior. These results show that the effective water/binder ratio has a major role in the development of the mechanical properties of concrete. The study of different dosages using TA, thermo-gravimetry and differential thermal analysis, revealed that the portlandite content is not restrictive in any of the dosages studied. Again, this proves that the rheology of the material influences the reaction rate and content of hydrated cement products. We conclude that the available free water is determinant in the efficiency of pozzolanic reaction. It is so that in accordance to the availability of free water, the ashes can react as an active admixture or simply change the porous distribution. The MIP shows concretes that do not exhibit significant changes in their mechanical behavior, but have suffered significant variation in their porous structure

Facing the climate change challenges in the mining and mineral industry as providers of a sustainable manufacturing process

A sustainable manufacturing process must rely on an also sustainable raw materials and energy supply. This paper is intended to show the results of the studies developed on sustainable business models for the minerals industry as a fundamental previous part of a sustainable manufacturing process. As it has happened in other economic activities, the mining and minerals industry has come under tremendous pressure to improve its social, developmental, and environmental performance. Mining, refining, and the use and disposal of minerals have in some instances led to significant local environmental and social damage. Nowadays, like in other parts of the corporate world, companies are more routinely expected to perform to ever higher standards of behavior, going well beyond achieving the best rate of return for shareholders. They are also increasingly being asked to be more transparent and subject to third-party audit or review, especially in environmental aspects. In terms of environment, there are three inter-related areas where innovation and new business models can make the biggest difference: carbon, water and biodiversity. The focus in these three areas is for two reasons. First, the industrial and energetic minerals industry has significant footprints in each of these areas. Second, these three areas are where the potential environmental impacts go beyond local stakeholders and communities, and can even have global impacts, like in the case of carbon. So prioritizing efforts in these areas will ultimately be a strategic differentiator as the industry businesses continues to grow. Over the next forty years, world?s population is predicted to rise from 6.300 million to 9.500 million people. This will mean a huge demand of natural resources. Indeed, consumption rates are such that current demand for raw materials will probably soon exceed the planet?s capacity. As awareness of the actual situation grows, the public is demanding goods and services that are even more environmentally sustainable. This means that massive efforts are required to reduce the amount of materials we use, including freshwater, minerals and oil, biodiversity, and marine resources. It?s clear that business as usual is no longer possible. Today, companies face not only the economic fallout of the financial crisis; they face the substantial challenge of transitioning to a low-carbon economy that is constrained by dwindling natural resources easily accessible. Innovative business models offer pioneering companies an early start toward the future. They can signal to consumers how to make sustainable choices and provide reward for both the consumer and the shareholder. Climate change and carbon remain major risk discontinuities that we need to better understand and deal with. In the absence of a global carbon solution, the principal objective of any individual country should be to reduce its global carbon emissions by encouraging conservation. The mineral industry internal response is to continue to focus on reducing the energy intensity of our existing operations through energy efficiency and the progressive introduction of new technology. Planning of the new projects must ensure that their energy footprint is minimal from the start. These actions will increase the long term resilience of the business to uncertain energy and carbon markets. This focus, combined with a strong demand for skills in this strategic area for the future requires an appropriate change in initial and continuing training of engineers and technicians and their awareness of the issue of eco-design. It will also need the development of measurement tools for consistent comparisons between companies and the assessments integration of the carbon footprint of mining equipments and services in a comprehensive impact study on the sustainable development of the Economy.

Numerical Simulation of the Aerodynamic Behavior of High Velocity Trains under Synthetic Crosswinds of Different Shear and Turbulence Characteristics

A numerical simulation of the aerodynamic behavior of high-speed trains under synthetic crosswinds at a 90º yaw angle is presented. The train geometry is the aerodynamic train model (ATM). Flow description based on numerical simulations is obtained using large eddy simulation (LES) and the commercial code ANSYSFluent V14.5. A crosswind whose averaged velocity and turbulence characteristics change with distance to the ground is imposed. Turbulent fluctuations that vary temporally and spatially are simulated with TurbSim code. The crosswind boundary condition is calculated for the distance the train runs during a simulation period. The inlet streamwise velocity boundary condition is generated using Taylor?s frozen turbulence hypothesis. The model gives a time history of the force and moments acting on the train; this includes averaged values, standard deviations and extreme values. Of particular interest are the spectra of the forces and moments, and the admittance spectra. For comparison, results obtained with LES and a uniform wind velocity fluctuating in time, and results obtained with Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes equations (RANS), and the averaged wind conditions, are also presented.

Nucleotide-dependent conformational change near the fulcrum region in Dictyostelium myosin II

In skeletal muscle myosin, the reactive thiols (SH1 and SH2) are close to a proposed fulcrum region that is thought to undergo a large conformational change. The reactive thiol region is thought to transmit the conformational changes induced by the actin–myosin–ATP interactions to the lever arm, which amplifies the power stroke. In skeletal muscle myosin, SH1 and SH2 can be chemically cross-linked in the presence of nucleotide, trapping the nucleotide in its pocket. Although the flexibility of the reactive thiol region has been well studied in skeletal muscle myosin, crystal structures of truncated nonmuscle myosin II from Dictyostelium in the presence of various ATP analogs do not show changes at the reactive thiol region that would be consistent with the SH1–SH2 cross-linking observed for muscle myosin. To examine the dynamics of the reactive thiol region in Dictyostelium myosin II, we have examined a modified myosin II that has cysteines at the muscle myosin SH1 and SH2 positions. This myosin is specifically cross-linked at SH1–SH2 by a chemical cross-linker in the presence of ADP, but not in its absence. Furthermore, the cross-linked species traps the nucleotide, as in the case of muscle myosin. Thus, the Dictyostelium myosin II shares the same dynamic behavior in the fulcrum region of the molecule as the skeletal muscle myosin. This result emphasizes the importance of nucleotide-dependent changes in this part of the molecule.

The Dynamic Behavior of Individual Microtubules Associated with Chromosomes In Vitro

Mitotic movements of chromosomes are usually coupled to the elongation and shortening of the microtubules to which they are bound. The lengths of kinetochore-associated microtubules change by incorporation or loss of tubulin subunits, principally at their chromosome-bound ends. We have reproduced aspects of this phenomenon in vitro, using a real-time assay that displays directly the movements of individual chromosome-associated microtubules as they elongate and shorten. Chromosomes isolated from cultured Chinese hamster ovary cells were adhered to coverslips and then allowed to bind labeled microtubules. In the presence of tubulin and GTP, these microtubules could grow at their chromosome-bound ends, causing the labeled segments to move away from the chromosomes, even in the absence of ATP. Sometimes a microtubule would switch to shortening, causing the direction of movement to change abruptly. The link between a microtubule and a chromosome was mechanically strong; 15 pN of tension was generally insufficient to detach a microtubule, even though it could add subunits at the kinetochore–microtubule junction. The behavior of the microtubules in vitro was regulated by the chromosomes to which they were bound; the frequency of transitions from polymerization to depolymerization was decreased, and the speed of depolymerization-coupled movement toward chromosomes was only one-fifth the rate of shortening for microtubules free in solution. Our results are consistent with a model in which each microtubule interacts with an increasing number of chromosome-associated binding sites as it approaches the kinetochore.

Induced intensification: Agricultural change in Bangladesh with implications for Malthus and Boserup

Bangladesh is dominated by a small-holder agrarian economy under extreme stress. Production shortfalls, increasing economic polarization, and chronic malnutrition are persistent, but major famine has been diverted in part by significant growth in agriculture. This recent history is open to both Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations—a history we explore here through a test of the induced intensification thesis of agricultural change. This thesis, framed by variations in the behavior of small-holders, has grown from a simple demand-production relationship to a consideration of the mediating influences on that relationship. The induced intensification thesis is reviewed and tested for 265 households in 6 villages in Bangladesh from 1950–1986. A time-series analysis of an induced intensification model provides relatively high levels of explained variance in cropping intensity (frequency and land productivity) and also indicates the relative impacts of household class, environment, and cropping strategies. On average, the small-holders in question kept pace with the demands on production, although important class and village variations were evident and the proportion of landless households increased. These results, coupled with evidence that agricultural growth involved intensification thresholds, provide clues about Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations of Bangladesh, and suggest that small-holder agriculture there is likely to continue on a “muted” path of growth.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.