Moral hazard, dividends, and risk in banks

In non-financial firms, higher risk taking results in lower dividend payout ratios. In banking, public guarantees may result in a positive relationship between dividend payout ratios and risk taking. I investigate the interplay between dividend payout ratios and bank risk-taking allowing for the effect of charter values and capital adequacy regulation. I find a positive relationship between bank risk-taking and dividend payout ratios. Proximity to the required capital ratio and a high charter value reduce the impact of bank risk-taking on the dividend payout ratio. My results are robust to different proxies for the dividend payout ratio and bank risk-taking. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Corporate social responsibility and earnings management in U.S. banks

Business decision making depends on financial reporting quality. In identifying the drivers of financial reporting quality, proxied by earnings management (EM), prior literature has drawn attention to the association between corporate EM practices and commitment to corporate social responsibility (CSR). Empirical evidence, however, provides inconclusive results regarding the direction of this association. Using simultaneous equations, we examine the bi-directional CSR-EM relationship in U.S. commercial banks. We demonstrate that, although banks that engage in EM practices are also actively involved in CSR, the reverse relationship is not significant. We provide implications for investors, analysts, business participants and regulators. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Automatized Generation of Metadata and Calibrated Test Item Banks for E-learning

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2013

Assessing productive efficiency of banks using integrated Fuzzy-DEA and bootstrapping:a case of Mozambican banks

Performance analysis has become a vital part of the management practices in the banking industry. There are numerous applications using DEA models to estimate efficiency in banking, and most of them assume that inputs and outputs are known with absolute precision. Here, we propose new Fuzzy-DEA α-level models to assess underlying uncertainty. Further, bootstrap truncated regressions with fixed factors are used to measure the impact of each model on the efficiency scores and to identify the most relevant contextual variables on efficiency. The proposed models have been demonstrated using an application in Mozambican banks to handle the underlying uncertainty. Findings reveal that fuzziness is predominant over randomness in interpreting the results. In addition, fuzziness can be used by decision-makers to identify missing variables to help in interpreting the results. Price of labor, price of capital, and market-share were found to be the significant factors in measuring bank efficiency. Managerial implications are addressed.

A new inverse DEA method for merging banks

This study suggests a novel application of Inverse Data Envelopment Analysis (InvDEA) in strategic decision making about mergers and acquisitions in banking. The conventional DEA assesses the efficiency of banks based on the information gathered about the quantities of inputs used to realize the observed level of outputs produced. The decision maker of a banking unit willing to merge/acquire another banking unit needs to decide about the inputs and/or outputs level if an efficiency target for the new banking unit is set. In this paper, a new InvDEA-based approach is developed to suggest the required level of the inputs and outputs for the merged bank to reach a predetermined efficiency target. This study illustrates the novelty of the proposed approach through the case of a bank considering merging with or acquiring one of its competitors to synergize and realize higher level of efficiency. A real data set of 42 banking units in Gulf Corporation Council countries is used to show the practicality of the proposed approach.

Analysis of operational risk of banks – catastrophe modelling

Nowadays financial institutions due to regulation and internal motivations care more intensively on their risks. Besides previously dominating market and credit risk new trend is to handle operational risk systematically. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. First we show the basic features of operational risk and its modelling and regulatory approaches, and after we will analyse operational risk in an own developed simulation model framework. Our approach is based on the analysis of latent risk process instead of manifest risk process, which widely popular in risk literature. In our model the latent risk process is a stochastic risk process, so called Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean reversion process. In the model framework we define catastrophe as breach of a critical barrier by the process. We analyse the distributions of catastrophe frequency, severity and first time to hit, not only for single process, but for dual process as well. Based on our first results we could not falsify the Poisson feature of frequency, and long tail feature of severity. Distribution of “first time to hit” requires more sophisticated analysis. At the end of paper we examine advantages of simulation based forecasting, and finally we concluding with the possible, further research directions to be done in the future.

"Értelem és érzelem" A lakossági ügyfelek gazdasági magatartása és a bankokkal kapcsolatos attitűdjei ("Sense and sensibility" Retail customer behaviours and attitudes towards banks)

A globális pénzügyi és világgazdasági válság sok szempontból újszerű versenyhelyzetet teremtett a lakossági banki piacon az ügyfelek megtartása és az új ügyfelek megszerzése terén. A gazdasági és társadalmi környezetben bekövetkezett változásokhoz való alkalmazkodás sikeressége érdekében fontos a banki ügyfelek gazdasági viselkedésmódjának alaposabb és mélyrehatóbb megértése. Tanulmányunkban bemutatjuk azokat a főbb, releváns pszichológiai, szociológiai és gazdasági tényezőket, amelyek az ügyfelek bankokkal kapcsolatos magatartását és attitűdjeit befolyásolják. A vonatkozó elméleteket és kutatásokat egy konceptuális keretben foglaljuk össze; ennek az alappilléreit a bizalom, a pénzzel kapcsolatos attitűdök és az emocionális komponensek alkotják. _______ The global fi nancial and economic crisis created new competition in the market for retail banking, and in the areas of existing customer retention and new customers’ acquisition. The corresponding economic and social change called for new adaptive strategies on behalf of banks to better understand the economic behaviour of their customers. This paper focuses on certain relevant psychological, sociological and economic factors that tend to characterize customer behaviours and attitudes towards banks. With particular emphasis on highlighting the potential implications of relevant theories for the purposes of banks, our conceptual model incorporates elements of trust, monetary attitudes and underlying emotional components.

A jelzálogpiaci válság és a Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív nagybankok részvényárfolyama (The impact of the subprime crisis on the banks being active in Central and Eastern Europe)

Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a jelzálogpiaci válsághoz köthető hírek milyen hatással vannak a Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív nagybankokra. A vizsgálathoz tíz Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív, tőzsdei nagybankot választottunk ki, amelyek közül hat nyugat-európai, míg négy közép-kelet-európai székhelyű bank volt. A tíz pénzintézettel kapcsolatosan 128 hírt gyűjtöttünk össze a 2007. június 1. és 2009. december 31. közötti időszakból. A híreket öt kategóriába csoportosítottuk, és az egyes kategóriáknak a részvényárfolyamokra gyakorolt, rövid távú hatását külön vizsgáltuk. Számításaink alapján a jelzálogpiaci válság során a befektetők pozitívan fogadták az állami feltőkésítéssel kapcsolatos bejelentéseket és a kielégítő védelmet nyújtó, átfogó kormányzati bankmentő csomagokat. A veszteségekkel, a leminősítéssel és az ECB intézkedéseivel kapcsolatos hírek esetén rövid távon nem tudtunk szignifikáns hatást kimutatni. A kutatás során a hírek számosságában igen, de a hírek által kiváltott hatás nagyságrendjében nem észleltünk jelentős különbséget a nyugat-európai és a középkelet- európai bankok között. ______ The research measures the impact of the subprime crisis on the shareholders of the banks being active in Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis focuses on the ten largest banks of the region measured by the asset size. The authors address the question whether the crisis affected more signifi cantly the large banks headquartered in Western Europe or the banks domiciled in Central and Eastern Europe. With the aim of capturing the short-term impact of various news on the shareholders of the banks, the popular event-study methodology with a one-day event window is employed. Within the period of 1 June 2007 and 31 December 2009, altogether 128 news were collected and grouped into fi ve categories (downgrades, loss, capital strengthening, governmental rescue packages, interventions of the ECB). Among others, the authors found empirical evidence that the shareholders appreciated the interventions of the governments: their capital injections resulted in signifi cant positive abnormal returns. Governmental rescue packages also resulted in signifi cant abnormal returns in the share price, however, the sign of the returns was unambiguous. No empirical evidence was found that in the short run the news in connection with loss announcements, downgrades and ECB interventions resulted in signifi cant abnormal returns. We concluded that although Western European banks and banks domiciled in Central and Eastern Europe differed in the number of news announced, the crisis affected the banks in both regions in a similar manner.

A hazai védekezőtől a regionális „támadóig” – az OTP nemzetköziesedésének időbeni alakulása (From the domestic defender to the regional striker – a timebased process of the OTP Bank’s internationalization)

A vállalatok nemzetköziesedése egy széles körben vizsgált szakterület, különösképpen olyan vállalatok esetében (az ún. tradicionális multik), amelyek hagyományosan nemzetközi orientációjú országokból (Triád) származnak. A nemzetközi piacokon viszonylag újnak számító közép-kelet-európai cégek terjeszkedése az üzleti kontextus változásával párhuzamosan zajlott. Következésképpen ahhoz, hogy megértsük a nemzetköziesedés időben zajló folyamatát, a vállalatok nemzetközi evolúcióját a kontextussal összefüggésben kell vizsgálni. A vállalatok nemzetköziesedésének legelterjedtebb kutatási módszerei a nagymintás keresztmetszeti vizsgálatok, amelyek nem adnak lehetőséget a nemzetközi fejlődés időbeni alakulásának megfigyelésére és a mintázat mögött rejlő valós okok feltárására. A jelen tanulmány egy longitudinális kutatási modell mentén vizsgálja egy nem tradicionális multi, a hazai OTP nemzetköziesedésének időbeni alakulását, feltárva a nemzetközivé válás folyamata során kialakuló komplex kapcsolatrendszert. _______ The purpose of the present paper is to describe the internationalisation process of a non-traditional multinational, the Hungarian OTP Bank and to understand the dynamic linkages between the spatial and temporal context and the content of firm internationalization using a phenomenon oriented longitudinal research design. The paper contributes to the time-based processual view of firm internationalization arguing that in order to understand firm internationalization along time one should observe organizations and their contextual environments as complex interacting processes. By analysing the interaction between the multi-level processes that shape internationalization, one can explore the reasons behind the dynamic profile of firm internationalization. The paper applies an interpretative approach focusing on local causality.

A központi bankok társadalmi felelőssége (Social responsibility of central banks)

A szerzők tanulmányukban bemutatják a vállalati gyakorlatból ismert vállalati társadalmi felelősségvállalás (CSR) koncepció lehetséges központi banki értelmezését, kitérve a központi bankok gazdasági, jogi, etikai és filantróp (jótékonysági) felelősségére. Megközelítésüket az amerikai (FED), az európai (EKB) és a magyar (MNB) központi bank gyakorlatán keresztül mutatják be. Dolgozatuk alapgondolata, hogy egy valóban felelős intézmény minden rendelkezésére álló eszközzel a társadalmi jólétet segíti elő, ahogy a társadalom tagjai vonatkozásában Adam Smith megfogalmazta bő kétszáz évvel ezelőtt. ____ This paper studies a possible interpretation of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) known from business translated to the sphere of central banks, including the central banks’ economic, legal, ethical, and philanthropic (charity) responsibilities. The authors’ approach is presented through practices of the American (FED), the European (ECB), and the Hungarian (MNB) Central Banks. The main idea in this paper is that a responsible organisation uses all means possible to improve social wealth, as stated by Adam Smith in relevance to the members of the society over two hundred years ago.

Spatial and temporal distributions of epiphytic diatoms growing on Thalassia testudinum Banks ex König: relationships to water quality

The spatial and temporal distributions of the epiphytic diatom flora on Thalassia testudinum was described within the Florida Bay estuary and at one Atlantic site east of the Florida Keys over a 1-year period. Species of the genus Mastogloia dominated the epiphytic diatom flora (82 out of 332 total species). Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) and Analysis of Similarity (ANOSIM) revealed four distinct spatial assemblages and two temporal assemblages. Eastern and western Florida Bay assemblages were identified within the estuary. The eastern diatom assemblage was characterized by high relative abundances of Brachysira aponina and Nitzschia liebetruthii, while the western assemblage was characterized by the abundance of Reimerothrix floridensis, particularly during summer. Two diverse and distinct marine assemblages, one located in the Gulf of Mexico along the western edge of Florida Bay and the other behind the Florida reef tract in the Atlantic Ocean, were also identified. Analysis of the spatial distribution of diatoms and water quality characteristics within Florida Bay suggest that these assemblages may be structured by salinity and nutrient availability, particularly P. The Gulf of Mexico and the western Florida Bay assemblages were associated with higher water column salinities and TP concentrations and lower DIN concentrations and TN:TP ratios relative to the eastern Florida Bay assemblage. The temporal variation in diatom assemblages was associated with water temperature, though temporal indicator species were few relative to the number of spatial indicators.

Current meter measurements from five moorings in the subpolar North Atlantic east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland

The southwestern part of the subpolar North Atlantic east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and Flemish Cap is a crucial area for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here the exchange between subpolar and subtropical gyre takes place, southward flowing cold and fresh water is replaced by northward flowing warm and salty water within the North Atlantic Current (NAC). As part of a long-term experiment, the circulation east of Flemish Cap has been studied by seven repeat hydrographic sections along inline image (2003-2011), a 2 year time series of current velocities at the continental slope (2009-2011), 19 years of sea surface height, and 47 years of output from an eddy resolving ocean circulation model. The structure of the flow field in the measurements and the model shows a deep reaching NAC with adjacent recirculation and two distinct cores of southward flow in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC): one core above the continental slope with maximum velocities at mid-depth and the second farther east with bottom-intensified velocities. The western core of the DWBC is rather stable, while the offshore core shows high temporal variability that in the model is correlated with the NAC strength. About 30 Sv of deep water flow southward below a density of sigma-theta = 27.68 kg/m**3 in the DWBC. The NAC transports about 110 Sv northward, approximately 15 Sv originating from the DWBC, and 75 Sv recirculating locally east of the NAC, leaving 20 Sv to be supplied by the NAC from the south.

A Comparison of Anchor-Item Designs for the Concurrent Calibration of Large Banks of Likert-Type Items

Current interest in measuring quality of life is generating interest in the construction of computerized adaptive tests (CATs) with Likert-type items. Calibration of an item bank for use in CAT requires collecting responses to a large number of candidate items. However, the number is usually too large to administer to each subject in the calibration sample. The concurrent anchor-item design solves this problem by splitting the items into separate subtests, with some common items across subtests; then administering each subtest to a different sample; and finally running estimation algorithms once on the aggregated data array, from which a substantial number of responses are then missing. Although the use of anchor-item designs is widespread, the consequences of several configuration decisions on the accuracy of parameter estimates have never been studied in the polytomous case. The present study addresses this question by simulation, comparing the outcomes of several alternatives on the configuration of the anchor-item design. The factors defining variants of the anchor-item design are (a) subtest size, (b) balance of common and unique items per subtest, (c) characteristics of the common items, and (d) criteria for the distribution of unique items across subtests. The results of this study indicate that maximizing accuracy in item parameter recovery requires subtests of the largest possible number of items and the smallest possible number of common items; the characteristics of the common items and the criterion for distribution of unique items do not affect accuracy.