The Holocene temperature conundrum

A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198–1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

The gynoecium of male Anchietea pyrifolia (Violaceae): Preserved structure with a new function

Structure of inflorescences and flowers and flowering behaviour are reported for the woody liana Anchietea pyrifolia (Violaceae) from Brazil. The specimen studied is grown for some decades now in the greenhouses of Halle Botanical Garden and turned out unisexually male, which adds a further example of dioecism to the family Violaceae, in which this type of sex distribution is rarely encountered. The flowers are exceptional also for the strongly asymmetric anterior petal, which represents a rare case of a species with enantiomorphic flowers pollinated by Lepidoptera. They have a fully developed gynoecium with a complicated architecture comparable to the pistil of bisexual Violaceae flowers, though without ovules. The style head is capable to release viscose liquid on tactile stimulation or pressure, which is known to act as pollen-gathering mechanism in bisexual Violaceae species with usually dry pollen and buzz-pollination. This function has switched in male A. pyrifolia to a mechanism for efficient pollen release mediated by insect pollinators from its short-lived flowers. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Linear covariant gauges on the lattice

Linear covariant gauges, such as Feynman gauge, are very useful in perturbative calculations. Their non-perturbative formulation is, however, highly non-trivial. In particular, it is a challenge to define linear covariant gauges on a lattice. We consider a class of gauges in lattice gauge theory that coincides with the perturbative definition of linear covariant gauges in the formal continuum limit. The corresponding gauge-fixing procedure is described and analyzed in detail, with an application to the pure SU(2) case. In addition, results for the gluon propagator in the two-dimensional case are given. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Andraspråkselever och matematik - språksvårigheter är bara halva sanningen : En studie i åk 6-9

Ett större antal andraspråkelever i den svenska skolan ställer nya krav på undervisningen och på lärarna. Svårigheter uppstår när elever ska lära ett nytt språk samtidigt som de ska inhämta kunskaper på det nya språket. Inom matematiken ger de matematiska textuppgifterna eleverna en extra utmaning där ett enda missat ord kan omintetgöra hela förståelsen. Det matematiska språket har sin egen speciella utformning och avviker ifrån vardagligt språk. Det kan därför vara ord i textuppgifterna som är nya och främmande för elever som inte har kommit så långt i sin svenska språkutveckling. Många av de begrepp som vi har i matematiken har dessutom flera betydelser som tex. volym, rymmer, axel, udda och så vidare och när eleverna inte förstår innebörden i texten så vet de inte heller vad de ska göra och kan därför inte göra den matematiska beräkning som uppgiften efterfrågar.Huvudsyftet med denna undersökning är därför att få kunskap om vilka svårigheter som möter andraspråkselever i matematikundervisningen. Svårigheter som lärare i matematik behöver känna till för att kunna ta hänsyn till dessa och på bästa sätt kunna stödja och hjälpa andraspråkelever till en god inlärning med de resurser som finns tillgängliga på skolan idag.Uppsatsen presenterar resultatet av ett språktest med matematiska textuppgifter. Detta resultat kompletteras sedan med intervjuer av lärare, elever och elevernas studiehandledare.Matematikundervisningen behöver utformas med en större kunskap om språk och språkinlärning. För att kunna bilda sig en uppfattning om ett nytt ords betydelse måste ordet få användas i olika sammanhang, ordet måste behövas. Mer muntliga övningar och mer träning i att beskriva tankar och begrepp skulle gynna inte bara andraspråkeleverna utan alla elever i klassen.Lärare i matematik kan känna att de har för lite tid och resurser för att kunna hjälpa andraspråkelever till goda matematikkunskaper. Det saknas även kunskaper om vad som är svårt inom matematiken och i texten till matematiska läsuppgifter. Till en del saknas också kunskaper i vad det innebär att lära sig ett språk och hur det är att studera på ett språk som man inte behärskar. De elever som jag har talat med är nöjda med sin matematikundervisning, sin lärare och sin studiehandledare. Två av dem är entusiastiska och mycket motiverade och har bra resultat. De andra två tycker att matematiken är svår och tråkig och har trots ansträngningar jobbigt med förståelsen. Lärare skulle behöva mer kunskaper om matematikundervisning för andraspråkelever. De behöver också ta ett större övergripande ansvar för varje enskild elevs kunskapsinhämtning. Som det är idag läggs ofta ansvaret för andraspråkeleven på någon annan, det kan vara studiehandledaren, läraren i svenska som andraspråk, modersmålsläraren eller speciallärare. Självklart ska alla dessa lärare samarbeta för att skapa en bra studiesituation för eleven men någon måste ha huvudansvaret. Det mest naturliga är att ansvaret innehas av den ordinarie läraren som känner till de mål och kursplaner som finns för ämnet.

Andraspråkselever och matematik : En empirisk undersökning om hur lärare anser att de arbetar för att utveckla det matematiska språket hos andraspråkselever

Ordförrådet i det matematiska språket kan skilja sig åt från det vardagliga språket. De matematiska orden rymma och axel är exempel på matematiska ord som har olika betydelse jämfört med ordens betydelse i det vardagliga språket. Antalet andraspråkselever ökar i den svenska skolan och forskning har visat att andraspråkselever generellt sett får lägre resultat i matematik än elever födda i Sverige. Alltfler lärare behöver därför kunna undervisa på ett sådant sätt att andraspråkselever får möjlighet att utveckla sitt ordförråd i det matematiska språket. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om det sätt som lärare beskriver att de arbetar på för att andraspråkselever ska få möjlighet att bygga upp ordförrådet i det matematiska språket har stöd i forskningslitteratur. Undersökningen genomfördes med en kvalitativ metod bestående av skriftliga e-postintervjuer. Sex stycken lärare som alla undervisar andraspråkselever i matematik deltog. Studiens resultat visade att delar av de sätt som de medverkande lärarna beskriver sig arbeta på har stöd i den utvalda forskningslitteraturen. De beskriver sina olika arbetssätt som fokuserade på matematiska samtal och där andraspråkseleven får använda sitt förstaspråk som en tillgång vid utvecklandet av ordförråd i det matematiska språket. Lärarna beskriver också ett arbetssätt där de använder en undervisning med konkret material för att stödja andraspråkselevers utveckling av matematiskt ordförråd. Studien avslutas med att diskutera hur rön från forskning överensstämmer med hur lärare beskriver sig arbeta för att ge andraspråkselever möjlighet att utveckla sitt ordförråd i det matematiska språket.

Association of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 with nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and total mortality in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease. METHODS: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used. RESULTS: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes.

Cosmopolitanism, identity and recognition

An application of the social theory of Axel Honneth to global justice, arguing that development goals must include provision for the intersubjective recognition required for identity formation. In the disciplines of Political Philosophy and International Relations cosmopolitanism is often defined as the view that all people, no matter their national, ethnic or religious backgrounds and no matter what their gender, have an equal moral status. The most telling enunciation of this view is the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights. However, the focus that is given to rights and a global form of legal equality by this document and by such theorists as John Rawls is not rich enough to capture all of the ethical demands that global society places upon well-to-do Westerners and developed nations. This paper makes use of a thesis by Axel Honneth to the effect that political thinking needs “a basic conceptual shift to the normative premises of a theory of recognition that locates the core of all experiences of injustice in the withdrawal of social recognition, in the phenomena of humiliation and disrespect.” Honneth identifies three spheres of recognition in modern societies: love, law, and achievement. I offer some exposition of his theory and then argue that global justice must be understood to embrace the substantive ethical values that arise in these three spheres as well as the procedural standards of moral rightness that belongs to the second of them. Such an expanded conception of global justice will yield an enriched conception of cosmopolitanism.