700 resultados para Asia Pacific Studies
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Streptococcus suis de type 2 est un microorganisme pathogène d’importance chez le porc. Il est la cause de différentes pathologies ayant comme caractéristique commune la méningite. C’est également un agent émergeant de zoonose : des cas cliniques humains ont récemment été rapportés en Asie. Cependant, la pathogénèse de S. suis n’est pas encore complètement élucidée. Jusqu’à présent, la réponse pro-inflammatoire initiée par S. suis n’a été étudiée qu’in vitro. L’étude du choc septique et de la méningite requiert toujours des modèles expérimentaux appropriés. Au cours de cette étude, nous avons développé un modèle in vivo d’infection chez la souris qui utilise la voie d’inoculation intra-péritonéale. Ce modèle a servi à l’étude de la réponse pro-inflammatoire associée à ce pathogène, tant au niveau systémique qu’au niveau du système nerveux central (SNC). Il nous a également permis de déterminer si la sensibilité aux infections à S. suis pouvait être influencée par des prédispositions génétiques de l’hôte. Le modèle d’infection par S. suis a été mis au point sur des souris de lignée CD1. Les résultats ont démontré une bactériémie élevée pendant les trois jours suivant l’infection. Celle-ci était accompagnée d’une libération rapide et importante de différentes cytokines pro-inflammatoires (TNF-α, IL-6, IL-12p40/p70, IFN-ɣ) et de chémokines (KC, MCP-1 and RANTES), qui ont entraîné un choc septique et la mort de 20 % des animaux. Ensuite, pour confirmer le rôle de l’inflammation sur la mortalité et pour déterminer si les caractéristiques génétiques de l’hôte pouvaient influencer la réponse inflammatoire et l’issue de la maladie, le modèle d’infection a été étendu à deux lignées murines consanguines différentes considérées comme résistante : la lignée C57BL/6 (B6), et sensible : la lignée A/J. Les résultats ont démontré une importante différence de sensibilité entre les souris A/J et les souris B6, avec un taux de mortalité atteignant 100 % à 20 h post-infection (p.i.) pour la première lignée et de seulement 16 % à 36 h p.i. pour la seconde. La quantité de bactéries dans le sang et dans les organes internes était similaire pour les deux lignées. Donc, tout comme dans la lignée CD1, la bactériémie ne semblait pas être liée à la mort des souris. La différence entre les taux de mortalité a été attribuée à un choc septique non contrôlé chez les souris A/J infectées par S. suis. Les souris A/J présentaient des taux exceptionnellement élevés de TNF-α, IL-12p40/p70, IL-1β and IFN- γ, significativement supérieurs à ceux retrouvés dans la lignée B6. Par contre, les niveaux de chémokines étaient similaires entre les lignées, ce qui suggère que leur influence est limitée dans le développement du choc septique dû à S. suis. Les souris B6 avaient une production plus élevée d’IL-10, une cytokine anti-inflammatoire, ce qui suppose que la cascade cytokinaire pro-inflammatoire était mieux contrôlée, entraînant un meilleur taux de survie. Le rôle bénéfique potentiel de l’IL-10 chez les souris infectées par S. suis a été confirmé par deux approches : d’une part en bloquant chez les souris B6 le récepteur cellulaire à l’IL-10 (IL-10R) par un anticorps monoclonal anti-IL-10R de souris et d’autre part en complémentant les souris A/J avec de l’IL-10 de souris recombinante. Les souris B6 ayant reçu le anticorps monoclonal anti-IL-10R avant d’être infectées par S. suis ont développé des signes cliniques aigus similaires à ceux observés chez les souris A/J, avec une mortalité rapide et élevée et des taux de TNF-α plus élevés que les souris infectées non traitées. Chez les souris A/J infectées par S. suis, le traitement avec l’IL-10 de souris recombinante a significativement retardé l’apparition du choc septique. Ces résultats montrent que la survie au choc septique dû à S. suis implique un contrôle très précis des mécanismes pro- et anti-inflammatoires et que la réponse anti-inflammatoire doit être activée simultanément ou très rapidement après le début de la réponse pro-inflammatoire. Grâce à ces expériences, nous avons donc fait un premier pas dans l’identification de gènes associés à la résistance envers S. suis chez l’hôte. Une des réussites les plus importantes du modèle d’infection de la souris décrit dans ce projet est le fait que les souris CD1 ayant survécu à la septicémie présentaient dès 4 jours p.i. des signes cliniques neurologiques clairs et un syndrome vestibulaire relativement similaires à ceux observés lors de méningite à S. suis chez le porc et chez l’homme. L’analyse par hybridation in situ combinée à de l’immunohistochimie des cerveaux des souris CD1 infectées a montré que la réponse inflammatoire du SNC débutait avec une augmentation significative de la transcription du Toll-like receptor (TLR)2 et du CD14 dans les microvaisseaux cérébraux et dans les plexus choroïdes, ce qui suggère que S. suis pourrait se servir de ces structures comme portes d’entrée vers le cerveau. Aussi, le NF-κB (suivi par le système rapporteur de l’activation transcriptionnelle de IκBα), le TNF-α, l’IL-1β et le MCP-1 ont été activés, principalement dans des cellules identifiées comme de la microglie et dans une moindre mesure comme des astrocytes. Cette activation a également été observée dans différentes structures du cerveau, principalement le cortex cérébral, le corps calleux, l’hippocampe, les plexus choroïdes, le thalamus, l’hypothalamus et les méninges. Partout, cette réaction pro-inflammatoire était accompagnée de zones extensives d’inflammation et de nécrose, de démyélinisation sévère et de la présence d’antigènes de S. suis dans la microglie. Nous avons mené ensuite des études in vitro pour mieux comprendre l’interaction entre S. suis et la microglie. Pour cela, nous avons infecté des cellules microgliales de souris avec la souche sauvage virulente (WT) de S. suis, ainsi qu’avec deux mutants isogéniques, un pour la capsule (CPS) et un autre pour la production d’hémolysine (suilysine). Nos résultats ont montré que la capsule était un important mécanisme de résistance à la phagocytose pour S. suis et qu’elle modulait la réponse inflammatoire, en dissimulant les composants pro-inflammatoires de la paroi bactérienne. Par contre, l’absence d’hémolysine, qui est un facteur cytotoxique potentiel, n’a pas eu d’impact majeur sur l’interaction de S. suis avec la microglie. Ces études sur les cellules microgliales ont permis de confirmer les résultats obtenus précédemment in vivo. La souche WT a induit une régulation à la hausse du TLR2 ainsi que la production de plusieurs médiateurs pro-inflammatoires, dont le TNF-α et le MCP-1. S. suis a induit la translocation du NF-kB. Cet effet était plus rapide dans les cellules stimulées par le mutant déficient en CPS, ce qui suggère que les composants de la paroi cellulaire représentent de puissants inducteurs du NF-kB. De plus, la souche S. suis WT a stimulé l’expression de la phosphotyrosine, de la PKC et de différentes cascades liées à l’enzyme mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK). Cependant, les cellules microgliales infectées par le mutant déficient en CPS ont montré des profils de phosphorylation plus forts et plus soutenus que celles infectées par le WT. Finalement, la capsule a aussi modulé l’expression de l’oxyde nitrique synthétase inductible (iNOS) induite par S. suis et par la production subséquente d’oxyde nitrique par la microglie. Ceci pourrait être lié in vivo à la neurotoxicité et à la vasodilatation. Nous pensons que ces résultats contribueront à une meilleure compréhension des mécanismes sous-tendant l’induction de l’inflammation par S. suis, ce qui devrait permettre, d’établir éventuellement des stratégies plus efficaces de lutte contre la septicémie et la méningite. Enfin, nous pensons que ce modèle expérimental d’infection chez la souris pourra être utilisé dans l’étude de la pathogénèse d’autres bactéries ayant le SNC pour cible.
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This study focuses on the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a semi-objective method to define monsoon onset. The main objectives of the study are to understand the monsoon onset processes, to simulate monsoon onset in a GCM using as input the atmospheric conditions and Sea Surface Temperature, 10 days earlier to the onset, to develop a method for medium range prediction of the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and to examine the possibility of objectively defining the date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK). It gives a broad description of regional monsoon systems and monsoon onsets over Asia and Australia. Asian monsoon includes two separate subsystems, Indain monsoon and East Asian monsoon. It is seen from this study that the duration of the different phases of the onset process are dependent on the period of ISO. Based on the study of the monsoon onset process, modeling studies can be done for better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction especially those associated with the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
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The thesis deals with the different properties and characteristics of oil of lemon grass.. The oil of lemongrass (Cymbopogon flexuosus) is one of the most important essential oils. It will continue to be one of the "big ten" of our essential oils1. Lemongrass oil is obtained from certain species of grasses of the genus cymbopogon. The genus consists of about 80 species, 10 to 12 of which are known to occur in India. Lemongrass is a stoloniferous plant. The plant grows wild in many tropical andsemitropical parts of Asia, Africa and in parts of Central America and South America. For the extraction of the oil however only cultivated lemongrass is employed. The trade distinguishes two Principal types of lemongrass oil, viz. the East Indian Oil and West Indian Oil. There was much confusion, years ago, about the taxonomy of the plants which yield theEast Indian and West Indian types of lemongrass oil, however Stapf2 ended the long controversy of identifying the plant yielding the East Indian type oil as Cymbopogon flexuosus (D.C.) Stapf and the plant yielding the West Indian type oil as Cymbopogon citrates (D.C.) stapf. The 2 plants have_been named variously also Andropogon nardus var. Flexuosus Hack or A. citratus D.C. respectively
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With the stabilization of world finfish catches in general, and the depletion of a number of fish stocks that used to support industrial-scale fisheries, increasing attention is now being paid, to the so-called unconventional marine resources, which include many species of cephalopods. One of such important cephalopod resource is the tropical Indo-Pacific pelagic oceanic squid Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis. It is the most abundant large sized squid in the Indo- Pacific region with an estimated biomass of 8-11 metric tons. However, its distribution, biology, life cycle and nutrient value in the south west coast of India are still poorly known. So any new information of this species in the waters off the south west coast of India has important scientific significance for effective and rational utilization of this Oceanic fishery resources, especially during the time of depletion of shallow water resources. In view of that this study investigated different aspects of the Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis, such as morphometry, growth, mortality, maturation, spawning, food, feeding and biochemical composition in the south west coast of India to understand its possible prospective importance for commercial fishing and management of its fishery
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Geographically, Taiwan is an Island and situated in the northeast of Asia, on the western side of the Pacific Basin, at the southeast of main China, south of Japan, and north of the Philippines. The main topographic character is the longitudinally oriented mountainous area. More than 200 peaks rise above 3000 m. They departed Taiwan into two lowland areas, an eastern and western plain. Taiwan is departed into subtropical (north area) and tropical zone (south area), which have a warm and humid climate, due to the Tropic of Cancer passing through. The average annual temperature in the lowland amounts to 28°C (7~38°C). The temperate climate also presents in the mountainous areas. The tropical typhoons usually come in summer and bring heavy rain, while the monsoon seasons have an important effect on the regional rainfall distribution. The mean annual rainfall of Taiwan is about 2600 mm (1000~6700 mm); the mountainous areas receive more rain than the lowlands. In Taiwan, according to different temperature and vegetation, the ecological environments were given rise to vertical biotic zonations, and form five major types: highland snowfield, highland meadow, coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and tropical forest. Six National Parks in Taiwan are located in the mountainous areas, in the north, the south, and on Jinmen Island. The National Parks represent about 8.4% of the country area. In this study, the collection sites are situated in Yangmingshan, Shei-Pa, Yushan, and Kenting National Park. Due to the island isolation, the proportions of endemic species are great in Taiwan, which also presents a high biodiversity. There are 4255 species of vascular plants including 1133 endemic. 5936 species in 1276 genera of fungi are hitherto reported in Taiwan. Among them, 233 Corticiaceae species were recorded, over one third (79 species) of them are known only from Taiwan. The first fungal report in Taiwan is about Phytophthora cyperi, published by the Japanese researcher T. Kawakami in 1904. Therefore, the history of research about fungi in Taiwan is more than one hundred years old. An eminent Japanese mycologist K. Sawada made an intensive survey from 1919 to 1959, and reported 2464 fungi species in his eleven volumes of “Descriptive Catalogue of Formosan Fungi”. However, only a few species (21 species in 9 genera) of Corticiaceae were recorded. From 1973, Chen and Lin resumed the study on Corticiaceae, and also some other foreign mycologists contributed for this field after 1980. The German research group lead by Franz Oberwinkler from Tübingen University collected in Taiwan several times. They published a number of new species and new records. Since 1989, S. H. Wu, a Taiwanese mycologist, has published a great amount of reports on corticioid fungi from Taiwan. Corticioid fungi were made up by the large and heterogeneous unnatural family Corticiaceae and other resupinate fungi belonging to other natural families in the Agaricomycetes. Molecular studies have shown that corticioid genera are distributed across all major clades of Agaricomycetes indicating that the corticioid fungi represent a polyphyletic group. They have resupinate fruitbodies and similar habitats. Species are characterized by simple fruitbody, more or less effused, and present smooth, porioid, grandinioid to odontioid hymenial surface. The fruitbodies are differently colored and usually soft to tough. Most of the Corticiaceae species are wood-saprobic organisms and gain the energy from the decomposing of wood-substrate such as cellulose or lignin. Materials for this study were collected by the author and other mycologists in Taiwan during surveys in April and May 1996, and March 2007, using the spring season with its high humidity and warm climate which are optimal conditions for the development of fungi. For assembling, the convenience sampling method was used in this study. This approach was chosen because it enables to detect a high biodiversity in a short time, and also to find species with rare or patchy distribution. The collecting sites from the North to the South include four National Parks and some preserved forests. They cover many different habitats such as low lands and high mountains. Fresh specimens were dried and analysed with a light microscope. 265 specimens belonging to Corticiaceae were studied in this research. Among them, 50 species in 21 genera including 11 new records and 10 new species were described with text and drawing. Four new species are belonging to Hyphodontia (H. sp. nov. 1, H. sp. nov. 2, H. sp. nov. 3, and H. sp. nov. 4), four to Schizopora (Sch. sp. nov. 1, Sch. sp. nov. 2, Sch. sp. nov. 3, and Sch. sp. nov. 4), one in Trechispora (T. sp. nov. 1), and one in Tubulicrinis (T. sp. nov. 1). Species recorded as new are Aleurodiscus amorphus, Botryohypochnus isabellinus, Hyphodontia cineracea, Hyphodontia palmae, Hypochnicium vellereum, Merulius tremellosus, Metulodontia nivea, Paullicorticium ansatum, Phlebia radiata, Phlebiella ardosiaca, and Xylobolus frustulatus. Besides, Botryohypochnus, Merulius, Metulodontia, Paullicorticium, and Xylobolus are also newly recorded genera in Taiwan. The genus Hyphodontia presents the highest diversity with 20 out of 50 species recorded. The second important genus is Hyphoderma, however with only 5 species. This indicates that Hyphodontia and Hyphoderma have a higher ability to develop in variable environments and approximately shows the predominance of these two genera in Taiwanese Corticiaceae. There are 11 new records out of the 50 species recorded, representing 22%. Some species, e.g. Hypochnicium vellereum and Paullicorticium ansatum were in the past recorded only in Europe and North America with cold and temperate climate. The samples of them are for the first time found in the subtropical belt, and display some difference from those of temperate regions. These collections should be molecularly investigated to clarify if they represent the same species of temperate areas. Patchily distributed species, for example Phlebiella ardosiaca, previously known only in Europe, and Hyphodontia palmae collected only in Brazil, were first recorded in different continents. Two possibilities are indicated by these new records: they are worldwide species but very rare to be found, or the Taiwanese specimens are taxonomically different. More survey from other continents and molecular study for these collections should be done in the future to solve this question. The distribution of Corticiaceae in Taiwan presents the variations in the north, central, and south areas and shows the diversity in lowlands and high mountains. The results of this study provide the evidence that the temperate Corticiaceae species displays a wider distribution. Subtropical and tropical taxa probably have also high dispersal capacities, and could possibly be found in the future in neighboring areas such as China, Japan, Korea or South Asia, but this needs further researches. In the total of 50 species, 10 new taxa were described in this study, giving about 20%. Some new species (e.g. Hyphodontia sp. 1, Hyphodontia sp. 2, and Hyphodontia sp. 3) are very similar to known species (Hyphodontia sambuci and Hyphodontia formosana), and the distinctive characters of Schizopora sp. nov. 1 are intermediate between those of Schizopora paradoxa and Hyphodontia flavipora. Thus, these small differences between the new and known species, suggest that the speciation occurred when the fungi migrated into Taiwan, due to the high diversity of environment, and amounts of the endemic plants. Taiwan is an intermediate place for the south (tropical) fungal species to migrate and adapt to north (temperate) regions. The middle and high altitude environments in Taiwan offer good conditions for the fungal speciation and possibly the occurrence of physiological changes to adapt to the temperate climate. Thus Taiwan has an important position for the biogeography of Asia mycobiota. 5936 known species in Taiwan represent about only 20% of the estimated number (24000) of Taiwanese fungal taxa. In this study, the findings (22% new records and 20% new species) indicate that amounts of unknown fungi species are expected in Taiwan. The lack of knowledge indicates that many new species are awaiting description, and fungal survey in Taiwan remains in a Pioneer phase. The last three wide surveys of Corticiaceae researches took place 20 years before this study (Chen & Lin 1977, Lin & Chen 1989, Wu 1990). After previous important contributions, the present taxonomic study comprising 21 genera is the most extensive on Corticiaceae of Taiwan.
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Publicación financiada por el Programa Asia-Link de la Comisión Europea. - Notas a pie de página.
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Colombia posee una ubicación geográfica privilegiada, que le da la opción de entablar relaciones a través de los Océanos Atlántico y Pacífico. Hacia el primero de éstos, se orientan la gran mayoría de esfuerzos relacionados con la consecución de mercados, ubicando a Europa y Estados Unidos.
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Esta monografía pretende evaluar los efectos de la tradición exportadora minera y el TLC entre China y Chile desde las perspectivas de violencia estructural y desarrollo como libertad de Amartya Sen y Johan Galtung, respectivamente. A través del análisis de algunos procesos históricos que han configurado las actuales dinámicas mineras y comerciales en Chile, y de las libertades reales que poseían los chilenos antes y después de la entrada en vigor del acuerdo, se logra comprender la manera en la que los fenómenos estudiados logran constreñir o impulsar el desarrollo de las capacidades de los chilenos para llevar a cabo las vidas que desean.
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Este estudio de caso se centra en los esfuerzos de China por reanudar los Six Party Talks o Diálogos a Seis Bandas que son considerados como la opción más viable para tratar la situación nuclear en la península coreana.
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El interés del presente estudio de caso es analizar la estrategia de securitización implementada por el Presidente de la Republica de Uzbekistán Islam Karimov sobre el Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán. Se describe y se explica cómo desde las lógicas históricas y étnicas acontecidas en Asia Central, se pueden comprender los alcances internacionales de la confrontación antagónica ejercida entre uzbekos al apoyar ideas de corte secular e islamista. Así, siguiendo los parámetros establecidos por Barry Buzan con respecto a la securitización, se puede llegar a identificar la creación de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en la región de Asia Central, cuyos logros permitieron disminuir el riesgo de la amenaza insurgente.
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El propósito de esta monografía es hacer una revisión de los procesos de integración y cooperación que existen actualmente en el Sistema Internacional, desde la experiencia de APEC y FOCALAE. Se analiza cómo los cambios que un Estado realiza en su política exterior, afectan el escenario internacional y dan lugar a acercamientos, que conllevan a su vez a la creación de nuevos canales de comunicación entre los Estados y las diferentes regiones del mundo. Se estudia a APEC y FOCALAE, para conocer el estado en el que se encuentran estos foros con respecto a la integración y lo que representan en cuanto a oportunidades para sus miembros. Se hace una revisión del acercamiento de América Latina y Asia del Este a través de la evolución del concepto de regionalismo que fue adoptado como estrategia política por Chile y que ha influenciado el desarrollo de ambos foros.
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El autor destaca la importancia en términos de compromisos políticos del Ecuador hacia una relación más estrecha con los países del Asia-Pacífico. El nuevo gobierno debe diseñar sus políticas en correspondencia con el escenario impuesto por la democracia liberal y el libre mercado, considerar incentivos para el desarrollo del comercio exterior y atracci6n de inversiones y tomar en cuenta la importancia de la competitividad interna. El sector privado debe revertir el comportamiento irregular de la exportaciones hacia algunos países de Asia-Pacífico y el Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores fortalecer los lazos a nivel político-diplomático. Finalmente, el autor enfatiza la necesidad de una rápida modernización del sector público.
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The influence on the summer flow over Asia of both the orographic and thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau is investigated using a sequence of idealised experiments with a global primitive equation model. The zonally averaged flow is prescribed and both realistic and idealised orography and heating are used. There is some similarity between the responses to the two forcings when applied separately. The upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone is predominantly forced by the heating but also weakly by the orography. Below this, both forcings tend to give air descending in an equatorward anticyclonic circulation down the isentropes to the west and rising in a similar poleward circulation to the east. However the heating-only response has a strong ascending southwesterly flow that is guided around the south and south-east of the orography when it is included. On the northern side, the westerly flow over the orography gives ascent on the upslope and descent on the downslope. It is found that heating over the Plateau leads to a potential vorticity (PV) minimum and that if it is sufficiently strong the flow is unstable, producing a quasi-biweekly oscillation. During this oscillation the Tibetan anticyclone changes between a single centre over the southwestern side of the Plateau and a split/double structure with centres over China and the Middle East. These characteristics are similar to observed variability in the region. Associated with this quasi-biweekly oscillation are significant variations in the strength of the ascent over the Plateau and the Rossby wave pattern over the North Pacific. The origin of the variability is instability associated with the zonally extended potential vorticity PV minimum on a θ-surface, as proposed by Hsu and Plumb (2000). This minimum is due to the tendency to reduce the PV above the heating over the Plateau and to advection by the consequent anticyclone of high PV around from the east and low PV to the west. The deep convection to the south and southeast of the Plateau tends to suppress the quasi-biweekly oscillation because the low PV produced above it acts to reduce the meridional PV gradient reversal. The occurrence of the oscillation depends on the relative magnitude of the heating in the two regions.
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Results are presented from a matrix of coupled model integrations, using atmosphere resolutions of 135 and 90 km, and ocean resolutions of 1° and 1/3°, to study the impact of resolution on simulated climate. The mean state of the tropical Pacific is found to be improved in the models with a higher ocean resolution. Such an improved mean state arises from the development of tropical instability waves, which are poorly resolved at low resolution; these waves reduce the equatorial cold tongue bias. The improved ocean state also allows for a better simulation of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Several sensitivity studies have been performed to further understand the processes involved in the different component models. Significantly decreasing the horizontal momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the lower-resolution ocean has benefits for the mean tropical Pacific climate, but decreases model stability. Increasing the momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the higher-resolution ocean degrades the simulation toward that of the lower-resolution ocean. These results suggest that enhanced ocean model resolution can have important benefits for the climatology of both the atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled model, and that some of these benefits may be achievable at lower ocean resolution, if the model formulation allows.
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Uncertainties in sea-level projections for the 21st century have focused ice sheet modelling efforts to include the processes that are thought to be contributing to the recently observed rapid changes at ice sheet margins. This effort is still in its infancy, however, leaving us unable to make reliable predictions of ice sheet responses to a warming climate if such glacier accelerations were to increase in size and frequency. The geological record, however, has long identified examples of nonlinear ice sheet response to climate forcing (Shackleton NJ, Opdyke ND. 1973. Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of equatorial Pacific core V28–239, late Pliocene to latest Pleistocene. Geological Society of America Memoirs145: 449–464; Fairbanks RG. 1989. A 17,000 year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep ocean circulation. Nature342: 637–642; Bard E, Hamelin B, Arnold M, Montaggioni L, Cabioch G, Faure G, Rougerie F. 1996. Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge. Nature382: 241–244), thus suggesting an alternative strategy for constraining the rate and magnitude of sea-level change that we might expect by the end of this century. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.