Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

A problemática trazida pela homologação de sentenças arbitrais estrangeiras anuladas em seu país de origem na segurança jurídica dos contratos internacionais do comercio

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Two and a Half Cheers for the Midwestern Bourgeoisie: Role of the Virtues in Tempering Business Decisions

A recent book (The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce, D. N. McCloskey), raises the matter of the role of the virtues in business and economic choice, arguing that capitalism can indeed, be virtuous or at least better than the alternative(s). This argument is especially timely in light of the apparent excesses on Wall Street and in some banking/financial institutions. Excessive greed and often the lack of business ethics contributed in substantive ways to the financial crisis and near economic meltdown we have been experiencing. As McCloskey, (2006, pp. 1-2) argues (in setting the stage for the complex argument made in this 616-page book!): “The book … is directed toward you who are suspicious of the phrase ‘bourgeois virtues,’ pretty sure that it is a contradiction in terms. And the book is directed, with less optimism about changing their minds, toward you who think the phrase is worse: a lie. ‘Bourgeois virtues’ is neither. The claim here is that modern capitalism does not need to be offset to be good. Capitalism can on the contrary be virtuous. In a fallen world bourgeois life is not perfect. But it’s better than any available alternative. American capitalism needs to be inspirited, moralized, completed. Two and a half cheers for the Midwestern bourgeoisie (middle-class, small business owners…. yet)… Many a businessman is an ethical shell or worse. Even the virtues of the bourgeoisie, … do not lead straight to heaven.”

Analyzing ACRE: Results for 2009 and Decisions for 2010

In 2009, agricultural producers participating in federal farm programs had to decide between staying in the existing Direct and Counter-Cyclical Program (DCP), and the new Average Crop Revenue Election Program (ACRE). If producers chose to keep the DCP, their farm income safety net is strictly tied to crop prices, with a combination of marketing loans, counter-cyclical payments and direct payments. If producers chose the new ACRE program, they changed their farm income safety net to a combination of price and revenue. The new ACRE component is based on revenue and replaces the counter-cyclical payment. The other parts of the safety net for ACRE participants remain tied to price, albeit at lower levels (direct payments reduced 20 percent, marketing loan rates reduced 30 percent).

Using Machine Learning Classifiers to Assist Healthcare-Related Decisions: Classification of Electronic Patient Records

Surveillance Levels (SLs) are categories for medical patients (used in Brazil) that represent different types of medical recommendations. SLs are defined according to risk factors and the medical and developmental history of patients. Each SL is associated with specific educational and clinical measures. The objective of the present paper was to verify computer-aided, automatic assignment of SLs. The present paper proposes a computer-aided approach for automatic recommendation of SLs. The approach is based on the classification of information from patient electronic records. For this purpose, a software architecture composed of three layers was developed. The architecture is formed by a classification layer that includes a linguistic module and machine learning classification modules. The classification layer allows for the use of different classification methods, including the use of preprocessed, normalized language data drawn from the linguistic module. We report the verification and validation of the software architecture in a Brazilian pediatric healthcare institution. The results indicate that selection of attributes can have a great effect on the performance of the system. Nonetheless, our automatic recommendation of surveillance level can still benefit from improvements in processing procedures when the linguistic module is applied prior to classification. Results from our efforts can be applied to different types of medical systems. The results of systems supported by the framework presented in this paper may be used by healthcare and governmental institutions to improve healthcare services in terms of establishing preventive measures and alerting authorities about the possibility of an epidemic.

Decisions on Temporal Sampling Protocol Influence the Detection of Ecological Patterns

Within-site variability in species detectability is a problem common to many biodiversity assessments and can strongly bias the results. Such variability can be caused by many factors, including simple counting inaccuracies, which can be solved by increasing sample size, or by temporal changes in species behavior, meaning that the way the temporal sampling protocol is designed is also very important. Here we use the example of mist-netted tropical birds to determine how design decisions in the temporal sampling protocol can alter the data collected and how these changes might affect the detection of ecological patterns, such as the species-area relationship (SAR). Using data from almost 3400 birds captured from 21,000 net-hours at 31 sites in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we found that the magnitude of ecological trends remained fairly stable, but the probability of detecting statistically significant ecological patterns varied depending on sampling effort, time of day and season in which sampling was conducted. For example, more species were detected in the wet season, but the SAR was strongest in the dry season. We found that the temporal distribution of sampling effort was more important than its total amount, discovering that similar ecological results could have been obtained with one-third of the total effort, as long as each site had been equally sampled over 2 yr. We discuss that projects with the same sampling effort and spatial design, but with different temporal sampling protocol are likely to report different ecological patterns, which may ultimately lead to inappropriate conservation strategies.

Work activities as a resource for work organization design and for strategic decisions?

This paper proposes a discussion about the possibilities to link strategic decisions to working activities performed by workers. In that sense contributions from activities analysis could be considered in order to design and manage production.

Management practices and influences on IT architecture decisions: a case study in a telecom company

The study aims to analyze the IT architecture management practices associated with their degree of maturity and the influence of institutional and strategic factors on the decisions involved through a case study in a large telecom organization. The case study allowed us to identify practices that led the company to its current stage of maturity and identify practices that can lead the company to the next stage. The strategic influence was mentioned by most respondents and the institutional influence was present in decisions related to innovation and those dealing with a higher level of uncertainties.

Cognitive and affective processes in social actions and decisions

The question of how we make, and how we should make judgments and decisions has occupied thinkers for many centuries. This thesis has the aim to add new evidences to clarify the brain’s mechanisms for decisions. The cognitive and the emotional processes of social actions and decisions are investigated with the aim to understand which brain areas are mostly involved. Four experimental studies are presented. A specific kind of population is involved in the first study (as well as in study III) concerning patients with lesion of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). This region is collocated in the ventral surface of frontal lobe, and it seems have an important role in social and moral decision in forecasting the negative emotional consequences of choice. In study I, it is examined whether emotions, specifically social emotions subserved by the vmPFC, affect people’s willingness to trust others. In study II is observed how incidental emotions could encourage trusting behaviour, especially when individuals are not aware of emotive stimulation. Study III has the aim to gather a direct psychophysiological evidence, both in healthy and neurologically impaired individuals, that emotions are crucially involved in shaping moral judgment, by preventing moral violations. Study IV explores how the moral meaning of a decision and its subsequent action can modulate the basic component of action such as sense of agency.

Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn

Lattices and discrete methods in cooperative games and decisions

Questa tesi si pone l'obiettivo di presentare la teoria dei giochi, in particolare di quelli cooperativi, insieme alla teoria delle decisioni, inquadrandole formalmente in termini di matematica discreta. Si tratta di due campi dove l'indagine si origina idealmente da questioni applicative, e dove tuttavia sono sorti e sorgono problemi più tipicamente teorici che hanno interessato e interessano gli ambienti matematico e informatico. Anche se i contributi iniziali sono stati spesso formulati in ambito continuo e utilizzando strumenti tipici di teoria della misura, tuttavia oggi la scelta di modelli e metodi discreti appare la più idonea. L'idea generale è quindi quella di guardare fin da subito al complesso dei modelli e dei risultati che si intendono presentare attraverso la lente della teoria dei reticoli. Ciò consente di avere una visione globale più nitida e di riuscire agilmente ad intrecciare il discorso considerando congiuntamente la teoria dei giochi e quella delle decisioni. Quindi, dopo avere introdotto gli strumenti necessari, si considerano modelli e problemi con il fine preciso di analizzare dapprima risultati storici e solidi, proseguendo poi verso situazioni più recenti, più complesse e nelle quali i risultati raggiunti possono suscitare perplessità. Da ultimo, vengono presentate alcune questioni aperte ed associati spunti per la ricerca.