Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Combined intermittent hypoxia and surface muscle electrostimulation as a method to increase peripheral blood progenitor cell concentration.

Background: Our goal was to determine whether short-term intermittent hypoxia exposure, at a level well tolerated by healthy humans and previously shown by our group to increase EPO and erythropoiesis, could mobilizehematopoietic stem cells (HSC) and increase their presence in peripheral circulation. Methods: Four healthy male subjects were subjected to three different protocols: one with only a hypoxic stimulus (OH), another with a hypoxic stimulus plus muscle electrostimulation (HME) and the third with only muscle electrostimulation (OME). Intermittent hypobaric hypoxia exposureconsisted of only three sessions of three hours at barometric pressure 540 hPa (equivalent to an altitude of 5000 m) for three consecutive days, whereas muscular electrostimulation was performed in two separate periods of 25 min in each session. Blood samples were obtained from an antecubital vein on three consecutive days immediately before the experiment and 24 h, 48 h, 4 days and 7 days after the last day of hypoxic exposure. Results: There was a clear increase in the number of circulating CD34+ cells after combined hypobaric hypoxia and muscular electrostimulation. This response was not observed after the isolated application of the same stimuli. Conclusion: Our results open a new application field for hypobaric systems as a way to increase efficiency in peripheral HSC collection.

Combined intermittent hypoxia and surface muscle electrostimulation as a method to increase peripheral blood progenitor cell concentration.

Background: Our goal was to determine whether short-term intermittent hypoxia exposure, at a level well tolerated by healthy humans and previously shown by our group to increase EPO and erythropoiesis, could mobilizehematopoietic stem cells (HSC) and increase their presence in peripheral circulation. Methods: Four healthy male subjects were subjected to three different protocols: one with only a hypoxic stimulus (OH), another with a hypoxic stimulus plus muscle electrostimulation (HME) and the third with only muscle electrostimulation (OME). Intermittent hypobaric hypoxia exposureconsisted of only three sessions of three hours at barometric pressure 540 hPa (equivalent to an altitude of 5000 m) for three consecutive days, whereas muscular electrostimulation was performed in two separate periods of 25 min in each session. Blood samples were obtained from an antecubital vein on three consecutive days immediately before the experiment and 24 h, 48 h, 4 days and 7 days after the last day of hypoxic exposure. Results: There was a clear increase in the number of circulating CD34+ cells after combined hypobaric hypoxia and muscular electrostimulation. This response was not observed after the isolated application of the same stimuli. Conclusion: Our results open a new application field for hypobaric systems as a way to increase efficiency in peripheral HSC collection.

Application of Multi-SNP Approaches Bayesian LASSO and AUC-RF to Detect Main Effects of Inflammatory-Gene Variants Associated with Bladder Cancer Risk

The relationship between inflammation and cancer is well established in several tumor types, including bladder cancer. We performed an association study between 886 inflammatory-gene variants and bladder cancer risk in 1,047 cases and 988 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer (SBC)/EPICURO Study. A preliminary exploration with the widely used univariate logistic regression approach did not identify any significant SNP after correcting for multiple testing. We further applied two more comprehensive methods to capture the complexity of bladder cancer genetic susceptibility: Bayesian Threshold LASSO (BTL), a regularized regression method, and AUC-Random Forest, a machine-learning algorithm. Both approaches explore the joint effect of markers. BTL analysis identified a signature of 37 SNPs in 34 genes showing an association with bladder cancer. AUC-RF detected an optimal predictive subset of 56 SNPs. 13 SNPs were identified by both methods in the total population. Using resources from the Texas Bladder Cancer study we were able to replicate 30% of the SNPs assessed. The associations between inflammatory SNPs and bladder cancer were reexamined among non-smokers to eliminate the effect of tobacco, one of the strongest and most prevalent environmental risk factor for this tumor. A 9 SNP-signature was detected by BTL. Here we report, for the first time, a set of SNP in inflammatory genes jointly associated with bladder cancer risk. These results highlight the importance of the complex structure of genetic susceptibility associated with cancer risk.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

Suprachoroidal electrotransfer: a nonviral gene delivery method to transfect the choroid and the retina without detaching the retina.

Photoreceptors and retinal pigment epithelial cells (RPE) targeting remains challenging in ocular gene therapy. Viral gene transfer, the only method having reached clinical evaluation, still raises safety concerns when administered via subretinal injections. We have developed a novel transfection method in the adult rat, called suprachoroidal electrotransfer (ET), combining the administration of nonviral plasmid DNA into the suprachoroidal space with the application of an electrical field. Optimization of injection, electrical parameters and external electrodes geometry using a reporter plasmid, resulted in a large area of transfected tissues. Not only choroidal cells but also RPE, and potentially photoreceptors, were efficiently transduced for at least a month when using a cytomegalovirus (CMV) promoter. No ocular complications were recorded by angiographic, electroretinographic, and histological analyses, demonstrating that under selected conditions the procedure is devoid of side effects on the retina or the vasculature integrity. Moreover, a significant inhibition of laser induced-choroidal neovascularization (CNV) was achieved 15 days after transfection of a soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (sFlt-1)-encoding plasmid. This is the first nonviral gene transfer technique that is efficient for RPE targeting without inducing retinal detachment. This novel minimally invasive nonviral gene therapy method may open new prospects for human retinal therapies.

Développement de l'interprétation quantitative de la sismique réflexion lacustre : application de l'AVO aux sédiments quaternaires dans le lac Léman

Résumé Des développements antérieurs, au sein de l'Institut de Géophysique de Lausanne, ont permis de développer des techniques d'acquisition sismique et de réaliser l'interprétation des données sismique 2D et 3D pour étudier la géologie de la région et notamment les différentes séquences sédimentaires du Lac Léman. Pour permettre un interprétation quantitative de la sismique en déterminant des paramètres physiques des sédiments la méthode AVO (Amplitude Versus Offset) a été appliquée. Deux campagnes sismiques lacustres, 2D et 3D, ont été acquises afin de tester la méthode AVO dans le Grand Lac sur les deltas des rivières. La géométrie d'acquisition a été repensée afin de pouvoir enregistrer les données à grands déports. Les flûtes sismiques, mises bout à bout, ont permis d'atteindre des angles d'incidence d'environ 40˚ . Des récepteurs GPS spécialement développés à cet effet, et disposés le long de la flûte, ont permis, après post-traitement des données, de déterminer la position de la flûte avec précision (± 0.5 m). L'étalonnage de nos hydrophones, réalisé dans une chambre anéchoïque, a permis de connaître leur réponse en amplitude en fonction de la fréquence. Une variation maximale de 10 dB a été mis en évidence entre les capteurs des flûtes et le signal de référence. Un traitement sismique dont l'amplitude a été conservée a été appliqué sur les données du lac. L'utilisation de l'algorithme en surface en consistante a permis de corriger les variations d'amplitude des tirs du canon à air. Les sections interceptes et gradients obtenues sur les deltas de l'Aubonne et de la Dranse ont permis de produire des cross-plots. Cette représentation permet de classer les anomalies d'amplitude en fonction du type de sédiments et de leur contenu potentiel en gaz. L'un des attributs qui peut être extrait des données 3D, est l'amplitude de la réflectivité d'une interface sismique. Ceci ajoute une composante quantitative à l'interprétation géologique d'une interface. Le fond d'eau sur le delta de l'Aubonne présente des anomalies en amplitude qui caractérisent les chenaux. L'inversion de l'équation de Zoeppritz par l'algorithme de Levenberg-Marquardt a été programmée afin d'extraire les paramètres physiques des sédiments sur ce delta. Une étude statistique des résultats de l'inversion permet de simuler la variation de l'amplitude en fonction du déport. On a obtenu un modèle dont la première couche est l'eau et dont la seconde est une couche pour laquelle V P = 1461 m∕s, ρ = 1182 kg∕m3 et V S = 383 m∕s. Abstract A system to record very high resolution (VHR) seismic data on lakes in 2D and 3D was developed at the Institute of Geophysics, University of Lausanne. Several seismic surveys carried out on Lake Geneva helped us to better understand the geology of the area and to identify sedimentary sequences. However, more sophisticated analysis of the data such as the AVO (Amplitude Versus Offset) method provides means of deciphering the detailed structure of the complex Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Geneva trough. To study the physical parameters we applied the AVO method at some selected places of sediments. These areas are the Aubonne and Dranse River deltas where the configurations of the strata are relatively smooth and the discontinuities between them easy to pick. A specific layout was developed to acquire large incidence angle. 2D and 3D seismic data were acquired with streamers, deployed end to end, providing incidence angle up to 40˚ . One or more GPS antennas attached to the streamer enabled us to calculate individual hydrophone positions with an accuracy of 50 cm after post-processing of the navigation data. To ensure that our system provides correct amplitude information, our streamer sensors were calibrated in an anechoic chamber using a loudspeaker as a source. Amplitude variations between the each hydrophone were of the order of 10 dB. An amplitude correction for each hydrophone was computed and applied before processing. Amplitude preserving processing was then carried out. Intercept vs. gradient cross-plots enable us to determine that both geological discontinuities (lacustrine sediments/moraine and moraine/molasse) have well defined trends. A 3D volume collected on the Aubonne river delta was processed in order ro obtain AVO attributes. Quantitative interpretation using amplitude maps were produced and amplitude maps revealed high reflectivity in channels. Inversion of the water bottom of the Zoeppritz equation using the Levenberg-Marquadt algorithm was carried out to estimate V P , V S and ρ of sediments immediately under the lake bottom. Real-data inversion gave, under the water layer, a mud layer with V P = 1461 m∕s, ρ = 1182 kg∕m3 et V S = 383 m∕s.

Development of a harmonised method for the profiling of amphetamine

Résumé : Cette thèse de doctorat est le fruit d'un projet de recherche européen financé par le quatrième programme cadre de la Commission Européenne (DG XII, Standards, Measurement and Testing). Ce projet, dénommé SMT-CT98-2277, a été financé pour la partie suisse par l'Office Fédéral de l'Education et de la Science (OFES, Berne, Suisse). Le but de ce projet était de développer une méthode harmonisée et collaborativement testée pour le profilage des impuretés de l'amphétamine illicite par chromatographie capillaire en phase gazeuse. Le travail a été divisé en sept phases majeures qui concernaient la synthèse de l'amphétamine, l'identification d'impuretés, l'optimisation de la préparation de l'échantillon et du système chromatographique, la variabilité des résultats, l'investigation de méthodes mathématiques pour la classification et la comparaison de profils et finalement l'application de la méthode à des réels échantillons illicites. La méthode résultant de ce travail n'a pas seulement montré que les données étaient interchangeables entre laboratoires mais aussi qu'elle était supérieure en de nombreux points aux méthodes préalablement publiées dans la littérature scientifique. Abstract : This Ph.D. thesis was carried out in parallel to an European project funded by the fourth framework program of the European Commission (DG XII, Standards, Measurement and Testing). This project, named SMT-CT98-2277 was funded, for the Swiss part, by the Federal Office of Education and Science (OFES, Bern, Switzerland). The aim of the project was to develop a harmonised, collaboratively tested method for the impurity profiling of illicit amphetamine by capillary gas chromatography. The work was divided into seven main tasks which deal with the synthesis of amphetamine, identification of impurities, optimization of sample preparation and of the chromatographic system, variability of the results, investigation of numerical methods for the classification and comparison of profiles and finally application of the methodology to real illicit samples. The resulting method has not only shown to produce interchangeable data between different laboratories but was also found to be superior in many aspects to previously published methods.

Conflict-based Method for Conceptual Process Synthesis

The changing business environment demands that chemical industrial processes be designed such that they enable the attainment of multi-objective requirements and the enhancement of innovativedesign activities. The requirements and key issues for conceptual process synthesis have changed and are no longer those of conventional process design; there is an increased emphasis on innovative research to develop new concepts, novel techniques and processes. A central issue, how to enhance the creativity of the design process, requires further research into methodologies. The thesis presentsa conflict-based methodology for conceptual process synthesis. The motivation of the work is to support decision-making in design and synthesis and to enhance the creativity of design activities. It deals with the multi-objective requirements and combinatorially complex nature of process synthesis. The work is carriedout based on a new concept and design paradigm adapted from Theory of InventiveProblem Solving methodology (TRIZ). TRIZ is claimed to be a `systematic creativity' framework thanks to its knowledge based and evolutionary-directed nature. The conflict concept, when applied to process synthesis, throws new lights on design problems and activities. The conflict model is proposed as a way of describing design problems and handling design information. The design tasks are represented as groups of conflicts and conflict table is built as the design tool. The general design paradigm is formulated to handle conflicts in both the early and detailed design stages. The methodology developed reflects the conflict nature of process design and synthesis. The method is implemented and verified through case studies of distillation system design, reactor/separator network design and waste minimization. Handling the various levels of conflicts evolve possible design alternatives in a systematic procedure which consists of establishing an efficient and compact solution space for the detailed design stage. The approach also provides the information to bridge the gap between the application of qualitative knowledge in the early stage and quantitative techniques in the detailed design stage. Enhancement of creativity is realized through the better understanding of the design problems gained from the conflict concept and in the improvement in engineering design practice via the systematic nature of the approach.

Identifying the Role of Final Consumption in Structural Path Analysis: An Application to Water Uses

The complexity of the connexions within an economic system can only be reliably reflected in academic research if powerful methods are used. Researchers have used Structural Path Analysis (SPA) to capture not only the linkages within the production system but also the propagation of the effects into different channels of impacts. However, the SPA literature has restricted itself to showing the relations among sectors of production, while the connections between these sectors and final consumption have attracted little attention. In order to consider the complete set of channels involved, in this paper we propose a structural path method that endogenously incorporates not only sectors of production but also the final consumption of the economy. The empirical application comprises water usages, and analyses the dissemination of exogenous impacts into various channels of water consumption. The results show that the responsibility for water stress is imputed to different sectors and depends on the hypothesis used for the role played by final consumption in the model. This highlights the importance of consumers’ decisions in the determination of ecological impacts. Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Structural Path Analysis, Final Consumption, Water uses.

Identifying quantitative operation principles in metabolic pathways: a systematic method for searching feasible enzyme activity patterns leading to cellular adaptive responses

Background: Optimization methods allow designing changes in a system so that specific goals are attained. These techniques are fundamental for metabolic engineering. However, they are not directly applicable for investigating the evolution of metabolic adaptation to environmental changes. Although biological systems have evolved by natural selection and result in well-adapted systems, we can hardly expect that actual metabolic processes are at the theoretical optimum that could result from an optimization analysis. More likely, natural systems are to be found in a feasible region compatible with global physiological requirements. Results: We first present a new method for globally optimizing nonlinear models of metabolic pathways that are based on the Generalized Mass Action (GMA) representation. The optimization task is posed as a nonconvex nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that is solved by an outer- approximation algorithm. This method relies on solving iteratively reduced NLP slave subproblems and mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) master problems that provide valid upper and lower bounds, respectively, on the global solution to the original NLP. The capabilities of this method are illustrated through its application to the anaerobic fermentation pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We next introduce a method to identify the feasibility parametric regions that allow a system to meet a set of physiological constraints that can be represented in mathematical terms through algebraic equations. This technique is based on applying the outer-approximation based algorithm iteratively over a reduced search space in order to identify regions that contain feasible solutions to the problem and discard others in which no feasible solution exists. As an example, we characterize the feasible enzyme activity changes that are compatible with an appropriate adaptive response of yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to heat shock Conclusion: Our results show the utility of the suggested approach for investigating the evolution of adaptive responses to environmental changes. The proposed method can be used in other important applications such as the evaluation of parameter changes that are compatible with health and disease states.

Measuring service quality in sport management: an application of the SERVQUAL scale

The aim of this study is to provide an instrument for measuring service quality in sports enterprises from the point of view of the customers. For this purpose we intend to elaborate an enquiry starting out from a more general scale called SERVIQUAL. We have limited our research project to sports enterprises where the customer participates actively, i.e., we have excluded sports clubs and other organizations which offer sport as entertainment. Our choice is mainly due to the fact that few studies have been carried out in this area and that sports has been earning an increasing amount of adepts during the last decades in Spain. The DELPHI method has been applied with the collaboration of a panel of experts in order to evaluate the viability and adequacy of the modified SERVQUAL scale.

Surrogate science: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference

The application of statistics to science is not a neutral act. Statistical tools have shaped and were also shaped by its objects. In the social sciences, statistical methods fundamentally changed research practice, making statistical inference its centerpiece. At the same time, textbook writers in the social sciences have transformed rivaling statistical systems into an apparently monolithic method that could be used mechanically. The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the "inference revolution" of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This form of surrogate science fosters delusions and borderline cheating and has done much harm, creating, for one, a flood of irreproducible results. Proponents of the "Bayesian revolution" should be wary of chasing yet another chimera: an apparently universal inference procedure. A better path would be to promote both an understanding of the various devices in the "statistical toolbox" and informed judgment to select among these.

Molecular method for the characterization of Coxiella burnetii from clinical and environmental samples: variability of genotypes in Spain

Background: Coxiella burnetii is a highly clonal microorganism which is difficult to culture, requiring BSL3 conditions for its propagation. This leads to a scarce availability of isolates worldwide. On the other hand, published methods of characterization have delineated up to 8 different genomic groups and 36 genotypes. However, all these methodologies, with the exception of one that exhibited limited discriminatory power (3 genotypes), rely on performing between 10 and 20 PCR amplifications or sequencing long fragments of DNA, which make their direct application to clinical samples impracticable and leads to a scarce accessibility of data on the circulation of C. burnetii genotypes. Results: To assess the variability of this organism in Spain, we have developed a novel method that consists of a multiplex (8 targets) PCR and hybridization with specific probes that reproduce the previous classification of this organism into 8 genomic groups, and up to 16 genotypes. It allows for a direct haracterization from clinical and environmental samples in a single run, which will help in the study of the different genotypes circulating in wild and domestic cycles as well as from sporadic human cases and outbreaks. The method has been validated with reference isolates. A high variability of C. burnetii has been found in Spain among 90 samples tested, detecting 10 different genotypes, being those adaA negative associated with acute Q fever cases presenting as fever of intermediate duration with liver involvement and with chronic cases. Genotypes infecting humans are also found in sheep, goats, rats, wild boar and ticks, and the only genotype found in cattle has never been found among our clinical samples. Conclusions: This newly developed methodology has permitted to demonstrate that C. burnetii is highly variable in Spain. With the data presented here, cattle seem not to participate in the transmission of C. burnetii to humans in the samples studied, while sheep, goats, wild boar, rats and ticks share genotypes with the human population.

Use of the dried blood spot sampling process coupled with fast gas chromatography and negative-ion chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry: application to fluoxetine, norfluoxetine, reboxetine, and paroxetine analysis.

The objective of this work was to combine the advantages of the dried blood spot (DBS) sampling process with the highly sensitive and selective negative-ion chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry (NICI-MS-MS) to analyze for recent antidepressants including fluoxetine, norfluoxetine, reboxetine, and paroxetine from micro whole blood samples (i.e., 10 microL). Before analysis, DBS samples were punched out, and antidepressants were simultaneously extracted and derivatized in a single step by use of pentafluoropropionic acid anhydride and 0.02% triethylamine in butyl chloride for 30 min at 60 degrees C under ultrasonication. Derivatives were then separated on a gas chromatograph coupled with a triple-quadrupole mass spectrometer operating in negative selected reaction monitoring mode for a total run time of 5 min. To establish the validity of the method, trueness, precision, and selectivity were determined on the basis of the guidelines of the "Société Française des Sciences et des Techniques Pharmaceutiques" (SFSTP). The assay was found to be linear in the concentration ranges 1 to 500 ng mL(-1) for fluoxetine and norfluoxetine and 20 to 500 ng mL(-1) for reboxetine and paroxetine. Despite the small sampling volume, the limit of detection was estimated at 20 pg mL(-1) for all the analytes. The stability of DBS was also evaluated at -20 degrees C, 4 degrees C, 25 degrees C, and 40 degrees C for up to 30 days. Furthermore, the method was successfully applied to a pharmacokinetic investigation performed on a healthy volunteer after oral administration of a single 40-mg dose of fluoxetine. Thus, this validated DBS method combines an extractive-derivative single step with a fast and sensitive GC-NICI-MS-MS technique. Using microliter blood samples, this procedure offers a patient-friendly tool in many biomedical fields such as checking treatment adherence, therapeutic drug monitoring, toxicological analyses, or pharmacokinetic studies.