Changing times, changing stories: generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Role of climate on barn owls road-kill likelihood and the effect on population viability in future climate change

Roads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.

THE EFFECT OF SCHOOL CLIMATE (STUDENT AND TEACHER ENGAGEMENT) ON STUDENT PERFORMANCE

Title of Dissertation: THE EFFECT OF SCHOOL CLIMATE (STUDENT AND TEACHER ENGAGEMENT) ON STUDENT PERFORMANCE Kenneth L. Marcus, Doctor of Education, 2016 Directed By: Dr. Thomas Davis, Assistant Professor, Education Policy and Leadership, Department of Teaching and Learning, Policy and Leadership This quantitative research study was designed to compute correlations/relationships of student engagement and student achievement of fifth grade students. Secondary information was collected on the relationship of FARMS, type of school, hope, and well-being on student achievement. School leaders are charged with ensuring that students achieve academically and demonstrate their ability by meeting identified targets on state and district mandated assessments. Due to increased pressure to meet targets, principals implement academic interventions to improve student learning and overlook the benefits of a positive school climate. This study has provided information on the impact of school climate on student achievement. To conduct this study, the researcher collected two sets of public fifth grade data (Gallup Survey student engagement scores and DSA reading, mathematics, and science scores) to determine the relationship of student performance and school climate. Secondary data were also collected on teacher engagement and the percentage of students receiving FARMS to determine the effect on students. The findings from this study reinforced the belief that school climate can have a positive effect on student achievement. This study contributed quantitative data about the relationship between school climate and school achievement.

Climate, Land Use and Hydrologic Sensitivities of Stormwater Quantity and Quality in Complex Coastal Urban Watersheds

The study analyzed hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the complex coastal urban watershed of Miami River Basin, Florida by developing a Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM 5). Regression-based empirical models were also developed to explain stream water quality in relation to internal (land uses and hydrology) and external (upstream contribution, seawater) sources and drivers in six highly urbanized canal basins of Southeast Florida. Stormwater runoff and quality were most sensitive to rainfall, imperviousness, and conversion of open lands/parks to residential, commercial and industrial areas. In-stream dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus in the watersheds were dictated by internal stressors while external stressors were dominant for total nitrogen and specific conductance. The research findings and tools will be useful for proactive monitoring and management of storm runoff and urban stream water quality under the changing climate and environment in South Florida and around the world.

Genesis and classification of soils from subtropical mountain regions of Southern Brazil.

Soils formed in high mountainous regions in southern Brazil are characterized by great accumulation of organic matter (OM) in the surface horizons and variation in the degree of development. We hypothesized that soil properties and genesis are influenced by the interaction of parent materials and climate factors, which differ depending on the location along the altitudinal gradient. The goal of this study was to characterize and classify the soil, evaluate soil distribution, and determine the interactive effects of soil-forming factors in the subtropical mountain regions in Santa Catarina state. Soil samples were collected in areas known for wine production, for a total of 38 modal profiles. Based on morphological, physical, and chemical properties, soils were evaluated for pedogenesis and classified according to the Brazilian System of Soil Classification, with equivalent classes in the World Reference Basis (WRB). The results indicated that pedogenesis was strongly influenced by the parent material, weather, and relief. In the areas where basic effusive rocks (basalt) were observed, there was formation of extensive areas of clayey soils with reddish color and higher iron oxide contents. There was a predominance of Nitossolos Vermelhos and Háplicos (Nitisols), Latossolos Vermelhos (Ferralsols), and Cambissolos Háplicos (Cambisols), highlighting the pedogenetic processes of eluviation, illuviation of clay, and latosolization in conditions of year-long, large-volume, well-distributed rainfall and stability of land forms. In areas with acid effusive rocks (rhyodacites), medial or clayey soils were observed with lower iron oxide content, invariably acidic, and with low base content. For these soils, relief promoted substantial removal of material, resulting in intense rejuvenation, with a predominance of Cambissolos Háplicos (Cambisols) and lesser occurrence of Nitossolos Brunos (Nitisols) and Neossolos Litólicos (Leptosols). Soils formed from sedimentary rocks also tended to be more acidic, but with higher sand content, and the soils identified were Cambissolos Háplicos and Húmicos (Cambisols). Cluster analysis separated the soil profiles into three groups: the first and largest was formed by profiles originating from sedimentary rocks and rhyodacites; the second, smaller group was formed by four profiles in the Água Doce region (acidic rocks); and the third was formed by profiles derived from basalt. Discriminant analysis was effective in grouping soil classes. Thus, the study highlighted the importance of geology in the formation of soils in this landscape associated with climate and relief.

Dynamics of terricolous alpine lichen communities of the Alps and Mediterranean Mountains in a climate change perspective

This thesis focuses on the impact of climate change in alpine ecosystems stressing the response of high elevation terricolous lichen communities. In fact, despite the strong sensitivity of cryptogams to changes in climatic factors, information is still scanty.We collected records in 154 plots placed in the summit area of the Majella Massif. In Following a multitaxon approach, Chapter 1 includes cryptogams and vascular plants. We analysed patterns in species richness, beta diversity and functional composition. In Chapter 2, we analysed the relationships between climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity and structure indices. Chapter 3 provides a long-term response relative to the consequences of climate change on a representative terricolous lichen genus across the Alps. Chapter 4 explores the relationships between the species richness and the functional composition of lichen growing on two types of substrates (carbonatic and siliceous soils) along different elevation gradients in the Eastern Alps. Climate change could affect cryptogams and lichens much more than vascular plants in Mediterranean mountains. Contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were found between lichens and bryophytes, suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Ongoing climate change may also lead to a loss of genetic diversity at high elevation ranges in the Mediterranean mountains, pauperising the life history richness of lichens. Alpine results forecasted that moderate range loss dynamics will occur at low elevation and in peripheral areas of the alpine chain. Results also support the view that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies, dispersal, and establishment ability. We also highlighted the importance of substrates as a main driver of both species’ richness and functional traits composition. A “trade-off” also occurs between stress tolerance and the competitive response of communities of terricolous lichens that grow above siliceous and carbonatic soils.

Convergence Of Soil Nitrogen Isotopes Across Global Climate Gradients.

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Cardiac arrhythmia emergency room visits and environmental air pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives: Air-pollution exposure has been associated with increased cardiovascular hospital admissions and mortality in time-series studies. We evaluated the relation between air pollutants and emergency room (ER) visits because of cardiac arrhythmia in a cardiology hospital. Methods: In a time-series study, we evaluated the association between the emergency room visits as a result of cardiac arrhythmia and daily variations in SO2, CO, NO2, O-3 and PM10, from January 1998 to August 1999. The cases of arrhythmia were modelled using generalised linear Poisson regression models, controlling for seasonality (short-term and long-term trend), and weather. Results: Interquartile range increases in CO (1.5 ppm), NO2 (49,5 mu g/m(3)) and PM10 (22.2 mu g/m(3)) on the concurrent day were associated with increases of 12.3% (95% CI: 7.6% to 17.2%), 10.4% (95% CI: 5.2% to 15.9%) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.2% to 12.4%) in arrhythmia ER visits, respectively. PM10, CO and NO2 effects were dose-dependent and gaseous pollutants had thresholds. Only CO effect resisted estimates in models with more than one pollutant. Conclusions: Our results showed that air pollutant effects on arrhythmia are predominantly acute starting at concentrations below air quality standards, and the association with CO and NO2 suggests a relevant role for pollution caused by cars.

Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Geochemical mass-balance and oxygen-isotope constrains on silcrete formation and its paleoclimatic implications in Southern Australia

Two geographically distinct silcrete associations are present in southern Australia, inland and eastern; these were sampled in central South Australia and central Victoria, respectively, At each site, both silicified and immediately adjacent unsilicified parent material were collected. Analytical data from these pairs were used to construct isocons, assuming Zr immobility, and to calculate the volume change and amount of silica introduced during silicification, These results, together with whole-rock oxygen isotope compositions, were used to determine the delta(18)O of th, introduced silica, The results show that the eastern silcretes in central Victoria are probably linked genetically to the associated basalts, weathering of which supplied the introduced silica, This conclusion is based on the close spatial connection between the two, as well as the substantial amount of introduced silica in the silcretes (greater than in the inland silcretes), resulting in volume increases in some eastern silcretes, Oxygen isotopic calculations for the silcretes indicate that the silica precipitated from groundwaters at temperatures slightly higher than present conditions. Silcrete formation apparently occurred during the Miocene and Pliocene (basalts in Victoria younger than Pliocene lack associated silcrete) and may reflect the much wetter climate in southeastern Australia at that time. The inland silcretes of central South Australia can be divided into pedogenic (the most common) and groundwater varieties. The pedogenic silcretes, which show typical soil features like columnar and nodular textures, contain moderate amounts of introduced silica that precipitated by evaporation from saline groundwaters, For the groundwater silcretes, which have massive textures and formed at or close to the water table, insufficient data are available to determine the mode of formation. The inland pedogenic silcretes have probably been farming from the Eocene-Miocene to the present, implying that conditions of seasonally high evaporation have occurred in central Australia during this time period. Thus silcrete formation depends on a complex interplay between climate and silica supply, and it is impossible to generalize that the presence of silcrete is indicative of a particular climate. Likewise, the elemental composition of silcretes, particularly Ti content, is not necessarily of climatic significance, Nevertheless, detailed geochemical and oxygen isotopic studies of a silcrete and its parent material can elucidate the mechanisms of silcrete formation, and if evaporation is indicated as a major factor in silcrete formation, then the climate at the time was likely to have been at least seasonally arid.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

The last glacial cycle from the humid tropics of northeastern Australia: comparison of a terrestrial and a marine record

A detailed pollen record from the Ocean Drilling Program Site 820 core, located on the upper part of the continental slope off the coast of northeast Queensland, was constructed to compare with the existing pollen record from Lynch's Crater on the adjacent Atherton Tableland and allow the production of a regional picture of vegetation and environmental change through the last glacial cycle. Some broad similarities in patterns of vegetation change are revealed, despite the differences between sites and their pollen catchments, which can be related largely to global climate and sea-level changes. The original estimated time scale of the Lynch's Crater record is largely confirmed from comparison with the more thoroughly dated ODP record. Conversely, the Lynch's Crater pollen record has assisted in dating problematic parts of the ODP record. In contrast to Lynch's Crater, which reveals a sharp and sustained reduction in drier araucarian forest around 38,000 yrs BP, considered to have been the result of burning by Aboriginal people, the ODP record indicates, most likely, a stepwise reduction, dating from 140,000 yrs BP or beyond. The earliest reduction shows lack of a clear connection between Araucaria decline and increased burning and suggests that people may not have been involved at this stage. However, a further decline in araucarian forest, possibly around 45,000 yrs BP, which has a more substantial environmental impact and is not related to a time of major climate change, is likely, at least partially, the result of human burning. The suggestion, from the ODP core oxygen isotope record, of a regional sea-surface temperature increase of around 4 degrees C between about 400,000 and 250,000 yrs BP, may have had some influence on the overall decline in Araucaria and its replacement by sclerophyll vegetation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.