Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Successful long-term ultra dry storage of seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae in a genebank: variation in ability to germinate over 40 years and dormancy

Seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae were stored hermetically in a genebank (at -5 degrees C to -10 degrees C with c. 3% moisture content) for 40 years. Samples were withdrawn at intervals for germination tests. Many accessions showed an increase in ability to germinate over this period. due to loss in dormancy. Nevertheless, some dormancy remained after 40 years' storage and was broken by pre-applied gibberellic acid. The poorest seed survival occurred in Hormatophylla spinosa. Even in this accession the ability to germinate declined by only 7% between 1966 and 2006. Comparison of seeds from 1966 stored for 40 years with those collected anew in 2006 from the original sampling sites, where possible, showed few differences, other than a tendency (7 of 9 accessions) for the latter to show greater dormancy. These results for hermetic storage at sub-zero temperatures and low moisture contents confirm that long-term seed storage can provide a successful technology for ex situ plant biodiversity conservation.

Population performance of collembolans feeding on soil fungi from different ecological niches

The potential reproductive value of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Gloinus intraradices and Glomus invermaium), root pathogenic fungi (Rhizoctonia solani and Fusarium culmorum) and saprotrophic fungi (Penicillium hordei and Trichoderma harzianum) were examined for the collembolans Folsomia candida Willem and Folsomia fimetaria L. Dried baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) was used as a reference standard food in laboratory cultures. Collembolan performance was determined as final size, fecundity and population growth rate after when fed the fungal food sources for 31 days. The mycorrhizal fungi gave the least growth and fecundity compared with the other fungi, but G. intraradices gave good fecundity for F. candida. In terms of growth, Baker's yeast was a high-quality food for both adults and juveniles of both species, but it was a poorer food in terms of fecundity of F. candida. Preference of the fungi in all possible pairwise combinations showed that although F. fimetaria did not perform well on Glomus spp. and F. candida did not grow well on Glomus spp. their preference for these fungi did not reflect this. The highest fecundity was seen with the root pathogen F. culmorum. Different quality indicators such as the C:N ratio of the fungal food sources as well as other biological parameters are discussed in relation to their reproductive value and Collembola preferential feeding. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The temperature-dependent spectral properties of filter substrate materials in the far-infrared (6-40 mu m)

This paper presents the experimental results on the low temperature absorption and dispersion properties for a variety of frequently used infrared filter substrate materials. Index of refraction (n) and transmission spectra are presented for a range of temperatures 300-50 K for the Group IV materials silicon (Si) and germanium (Ge), and Group II-VI materials zinc selenide (ZnSe), zinc sulphide (ZnS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe). (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multilayer filters and coatings for the region 4-40 µm: new material combinations

The vacuum-deposited layer properties of materials of possible new use in infrared filters and coatings are described. These are comprehensively drawn from the II/VI, the heavy halide and the V/VI glass compounds, and are commercially available in all cases. Novel applications in coatings and filters are given for many of the materials.

The 11-yr solar cycle in ERA-40 data: an update to 2008

Multiple linear regression is used to diagnose the signal of the 11-yr solar cycle in zonal-mean zonal wind and temperature in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. The results of previous studies are extended to 2008 using data from ECMWF operational analyses. This analysis confirms that the solar signal found in previous studies is distinct from that of volcanic aerosol forcing resulting from the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, but it highlights the potential for confusion of the solar signal and lower-stratospheric temperature trends. A correction to an error that is present in previous results of Crooks and Gray, stemming from the use of a single daily analysis field rather than monthly averaged data, is also presented.

Postprandial lipid and hormone responses to meals of varying fat contents: modulatory role of lipoprotein lipase?

OBJECTIVE: Substrate and hormone responses to meals of differing fat content were evaluated in normal subjects in order to investigate mechanisms underlying the regulation of postprandial lipoprotein concentration. DESIGN: A randomised cross-over study with three different meals on three occasions. SETTING: Free-living subjects associated with Surrey University. SUBJECTS: Ten male volunteers (aged 18-23 years) were recruited. INTERVENTIONS: Three test meals containing 20, 40 or 80 g fat but identical carbohydrate and protein content were randomly allocated to volunteers. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Pre- and postprandial blood samples were taken for the analysis of plasma triacylglycerol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, immunoreactive insulin and glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide levels and postheparin lipoprotein lipase activity measurements. RESULTS: Peak triacylglycerol concentrations and lipoprotein lipase activity measurements were significantly higher following the 80 g than the 20 g fat meal (P = 0.009 and P = 0.049 respectively). Areas under the glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide time-response concentration curves were significantly higher following the 80 g compared with the 20 g fat meal (P = 0.04), but no differences in insulin response to the meals were seen. The 30-360 min decrease in the non-esterified fatty acid concentration was less following the 80 g than the 20 g meal (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide may mediate increased lipoprotein lipase activity in response to fat-containing meals and may play a role in circulating lipoprotein homeostasis. This mechanism may be overloaded with high fat meals with adverse consequences on circulating triacylglycerol and NEFA concentrations.

From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.

The antithrombotic effect of dextran-40 in man is due to enhanced fibrinolysis in vivo

BACKGROUND: Dextran-40 is effective in reducing postoperative Doppler-detectable embolization in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Dextrans are thought to have antithrombotic and antiplatelet effects. The mode of action is unclear. In rats, dextran blocks uptake of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) by mannose-binding receptors. Because this would have the effect of enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis, we explored this effect of dextran-40 on fibrinolysis in man. METHODS: Twenty patients undergoing endovascular stenting for abdominal aortic aneurysm were randomized to receive 100 mL of 10% dextran-40 or saline, over 1 hour, during their operation in addition to heparin. Blood samples were taken preoperatively, intraoperatively (immediately after operative procedure), and 24 hours postoperatively. Thrombi were formed in a Chandler loop and used to assess endogenous fibrinolysis over 24 hours, measured as the fall in thrombus weight, and the release of fluorescently labelled fibrinogen from the thrombus. Plasma samples were analyzed for markers of fibrinolysis; plasmin-antiplasmin (PAP), PAI-1, and t-PA, and for functional von Willebrand factor (vWF). Platelet response to thrombin and other agonists was measured by flow cytometry. RESULTS: Thrombi formed ex vivo from the intraoperative blood samples from the dextran-treated patients exhibited significantly greater fibrinolysis vs preoperative samples, seen both as a significantly greater percentage reduction in thrombus weight (from 34.7% to 70.6% reduction) and as an 175% increase in the release of fluorescence (P < .05). Fibrinolysis returned to baseline levels the next day. No change was seen in the saline-treated group. Plasma levels of PAP and PAI-1 increased significantly postoperatively in the dextran-treated group vs the saline group (P < .05). The postoperative level of functional VWF was significantly lower in the dextran-treated group vs controls. A specific reduction occurred in the platelet response to thrombin, but not to other agonists, in the intraoperative samples from the dextran-treated group (11.1% vs 37.1%; P = .022), which was not seen in the controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data are consistent with a rise in plasmin due to dextran blockade of tPA uptake in vivo, leading to enhanced fibrinolysis, cleavage of vWF and of the platelet protease-activated receptor-1 (PAR-1) thrombin receptor. This suggests that dextran exerts a combined therapeutic effect, enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis, whilst also reducing platelet adhesion to vWF and platelet activation by thrombin. The proven antithrombotic efficacy of low-dose dextran in carotid surgery may be applicable to wider therapeutic use.

Effect of forage conservation method on plasma lipids, mammary lipogenesis, and milk fatty acid composition in lactating cows fed diets containing a 60:40 forage-to-concentrate ratio

The effects of forage conservation method on plasma lipids, mammary lipogenesis, and milk fat were examined in 2 complementary experiments. Treatments comprised fresh grass, hay, or untreated (UTS) or formic acid treated silage (FAS) prepared from the same grass sward. Preparation of conserved forages coincided with the collection of samples from cows fed fresh grass. In the first experiment, 5 multiparous Finnish Ayrshire cows (229 d in milk) were used to compare a diet based on fresh grass followed by hay during 2 consecutive 14-d periods, separated by a 5-d transition during which extensively wilted grass was fed. In the second experiment, 5 multiparous Finnish Ayrshire cows (53 d in milk) were assigned to 1 of 2 blocks and allocated treatments according to a replicated 3 × 3 Latin square design, with 14-d periods to compare hay, UTS, and FAS. Cows received 7 or 9 kg/d of the same concentrate in experiments 1 and 2, respectively. Arterial concentrations of triacylglycerol (TAG) and phospholipid were higher in cows fed fresh grass, UTS, and FAS compared with hay. Nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentrations and the relative abundance of 18:2n-6 and 18:3n-3 in TAG of arterial blood were also higher in cows fed fresh grass than conserved forages. On all diets, TAG was the principle source of fatty acids (FA) for milk fat synthesis, whereas mammary extraction of NEFA was negligible, except during zero-grazing, which was associated with a lower, albeit positive calculated energy balance. Mammary FA uptake was higher and the synthesis of 16:0 lower in cows fed fresh grass than hay. Conservation of grass by drying or ensiling had no influence on mammary extraction of TAG and NEFA, despite an increase in milk fat secretion for silages compared with hay and for FAS than UTS. Relative to hay, milk fat from fresh grass contained lower 12:0, 14:0, and 16:0 and higher S3,R7,R11,15-tetramethyl-16:0, cis-9 18:1, trans-11 18:1, cis-9,trans-11 18:2, 18:2n-6, and 18:3n-3 concentrations. Even though conserved forages altered mammary lipogenesis, differences in milk FA composition were relatively minor, other than a higher enrichment of S3,R7,R11,15-tetramethyl-16:0 in milk from silages compared with hay. In conclusion, differences in milk fat composition on fresh grass relative to conserved forages were associated with a lower energy balance, increased uptake of preformed FA, and decreased synthesis of 16:0 de novo in the mammary glands, in the absence of alterations in stearoyl-coenzyme A desaturase activity.

Helga's dune: 40 years of dune dynamics in the Namib Desert

The dynamics of a small linear dune on the northern margin of the Namib Sand Sea have been monitored using erosion pins placed at the dune tip since 1969. GPS measurements of these pins enabled estimation of the rates of advance and lateral migration of the dune. The average rate of advance of the dune tip over the period 1969–2012 was 1.99 m yr–1 towards 015°. Rates of advance and lateral movement varied over the period of monitoring, with a decrease in rates of advance by a factor of 50%, but an increase in the rate of lateral movement. Changes in dune behavior appear to be related to changes in wind regime and the vegetation cover of the interdune area, as a result of increased rainfall in recent years. This study demonstrates the dynamic nature of the tip of this dune and its sensitivity to changes in winds and sand supply.