An Ensemble Smoother with Error Estimates

A smoother introduced earlier by van Leeuwen and Evensen is applied to a problem in which real obser vations are used in an area with strongly nonlinear dynamics. The derivation is new , but it resembles an earlier derivation by van Leeuwen and Evensen. Again a Bayesian view is taken in which the prior probability density of the model and the probability density of the obser vations are combined to for m a posterior density . The mean and the covariance of this density give the variance-minimizing model evolution and its errors. The assumption is made that the prior probability density is a Gaussian, leading to a linear update equation. Critical evaluation shows when the assumption is justified. This also sheds light on why Kalman filters, in which the same ap- proximation is made, work for nonlinear models. By reference to the derivation, the impact of model and obser vational biases on the equations is discussed, and it is shown that Bayes’ s for mulation can still be used. A practical advantage of the ensemble smoother is that no adjoint equations have to be integrated and that error estimates are easily obtained. The present application shows that for process studies a smoother will give superior results compared to a filter , not only owing to the smooth transitions at obser vation points, but also because the origin of features can be followed back in time. Also its preference over a strong-constraint method is highlighted. Further more, it is argued that the proposed smoother is more efficient than gradient descent methods or than the representer method when error estimates are taken into account

An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Temperature Dependence of Rb(2) Molecule Formation Rate Constant in a Magneto-Optical Trap

In this paper, we report the measurement of Rb(2) molecule formation rate constant due to a two body process in a magneto-optical trap as a function of the sample temperature. The ground state molecules are detected by two-photon ionization, through the intermediate a(3)Sigma(+)(u) -> 2(3)Pi(g) molecular band. Our results show that the Rb(2) molecules formed in the MOT could be due to a wave shape resonance, which enhances the molecule formation rate. This effect may be used to enhance the molecule production; and therefore it maybe important to future experiments involving production and trapping of cold ground state molecules.

THE CRYSTAL STRUCTURE OF A MICROLITE-GROUP MINERAL WITH A FORMULA NEAR NaCaTa(2)O(6)F FROM THE MORRO REDONDO MINE, CORONEL MURTA, MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL

We present electron-microprobe and single-crystal X-ray-diffraction data for a microlite-group mineral with a formula near NaCaTa(2)O(6)F from the Morro Redondo mine, Coronel Murta, Minas Gerais, Brazil. On the basis of these data, the formula is A(Na(0.88)Ca(0.88)Pb(0.02)square(0.22))(Sigma 2.00) (B)(Ta(1.70)Nb(0.14)Si(0.12)As(0.04))(Sigma 2.00) (X)[(O(5.75)(OH)(0.25)](Sigma 6.00) (Y)(F(0.73)square(0.27))(Sigma 1.00). According to the new nomenclature for the pyrochlore-supergroup minerals, it is intermediate between fluornatromicrolite and "" fluorcalciomicrolite"". The crystal structure, F (d3) over barm, a = 10.4396(12) angstrom, has been refined to an R(1) value of 0.0258 (wR(2) = 0.0715) for 107 reflections (MoK alpha radiation). There is a scarcity of crystal-chemical data for pyrochlore-supergroup minerals in the literature. A compilation of these data is presented here.

A multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables model with equation error

This paper deals with asymptotic results on a multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables regression model with equation errors Sufficient conditions for attaining consistent estimators for model parameters are presented Asymptotic distributions for the line regression estimators are derived Applications to the elliptical class of distributions with two error assumptions are presented The model generalizes previous results aimed at univariate scenarios (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measurement error models with a general class of error distribution

In general, the normal distribution is assumed for the surrogate of the true covariates in the classical error model. This paper considers a class of distributions, which includes the normal one, for the variables subject to error. An estimation approach yielding consistent estimators is developed and simulation studies reported.

SIGMA THEORY AND TWISTED CONJUGACY CLASSES

Using Sigma theory we show that for large classes of groups G there is a subgroup H of finite index in Aut(G) such that for phi is an element of H the Reidemeister number R(phi) is infinite. This includes all finitely generated nonpolycyclic groups G that fall into one of the following classes: nilpotent-by-abelian groups of type FP(infinity); groups G/G `` of finite Prufer rank; groups G of type FP(2) without free nonabelian subgroups and with nonpolycyclic maximal metabelian quotient; some direct products of groups; or the pure symmetric automorphism group. Using a different argument we show that the result also holds for 1-ended nonabelian nonsurface limit groups. In some cases, such as with the generalized Thompson`s groups F(n,0) and their finite direct products, H = Aut(G).

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electronic structure and chemical bonding in W(2) molecule

The electronic structure of the lowest-lying electronic states of W(2) were investigated at the CASPT2 level. The ground state is a X(1)Sigma(+)(g) state, followed by the a(3)Delta(u), b(3)Sigma(+)(u) and A(1)Delta(u) electronic states. Seven low-lying Omega-states were computed: (1)0(g)(+), (2)3(u), (3)2(u), (4)1(u), (5)0(u)(-), (6)1(u), and (7)2(u), with the ground state corresponding to the (1)0(g)(+)(X(1)Sigma(+)(g)) state. Comparison with the other VIB transition metal group dimers indicates a common pattern of electronic structure and spectroscopic properties. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectroscopic and theoretical studies of some N-methoxy-N-methyl-2-[(4 `-substituted) phenylthio]propanamides

The analysis of the IR carbonyl band of the N-methoxy-N-methyl-2-[(4`-substituted)phenylthio]propanamides Y-PhSCH(Me)C(O)N(OMe)Me (Y=OMe 1, Me 2, H 3, Cl 4, NO(2) 5), supported by B3LYP/cc-pVDZ calculations of 3, indicated the existence of two gauche conformers (g(1) and g(2)), the g(1) conformer being the more stable and the less polar one (in gas phase and in solution). Both conformers are present in solution of the polar solvents (CH(2)Cl(2) and CH(3)CN) for 1-5 and in solution of the less polar solvent (CHCl(3)) for 1-4, while only the g(1) conformer is present in solution of non polar solvents (n-C(6)H(14) and CCl(4)) and in solution of CHCl(3) for 5. NBO analysis shows that both the sigma(C-S) -> pi*(C=O) (hyperconjugative) and the pi(C=O) -> sigma*(C-S) orbital interactions contribute almost to the same extent for the stabilization of g(1) and g(2) conformers. The pi*(C=O) -> sigma*(C-S), n(S) -> pi*(C=O) and the n(S) -> pi*(C=O) orbital interactions stabilize more the g(1) conformer than the g(2) one. Moreover, the suitable geometry of the g(1) conformer leads to its stabilization through the LP(O2) -> sigma*(C8-H11) orbital interaction (hydrogen bond) along with the strong O([CO])(delta-) center dot center dot center dot H([O-Ph])(delta+) electrostatic interaction. On the other hand, the appropriate geometry of the g(2) conformer leads to its stabilization by the LP(O22) -> sigma*(C9-H13) orbital interaction (hydrogen bond) along with the weak O([OMe])(delta-) center dot center dot center dot H([o`-Ph])(delta+) electrostatic static interaction. As for the 4`-nitro derivative 5 the ortho-phenyl hydrogen atom becomes more acidic, leading to a stronger O([CO])(delta-) center dot center dot center dot H([o-Ph])(delta+) interaction and, thus, into a larger stabilization of the g(1) conformer in the whole series. This trend is responsible for the unique IR carbonyl band in CHCl(3) solution of 5. The larger occupancy of the pi*(C=O) orbital of the g(1) conformer relative to that of the g(2) conformer, along with the O([CO])(delta-) center dot center dot center dot H([o-Ph])(delta+) electrostatic interaction (hydrogen bond) justifies the lower carbonyl frequency of the g(1) conformer with respect to the g(2) one, in gas phase and in solution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast batch injection analysis of H(2)O(2) using an array of Pt-modified gold microelectrodes obtained from split electronic chips

A fast and robust analytical method for amperometric determination of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) based on batch injection analysis (BIA) on an array of gold microelectrodes modified with platinum is proposed. The gold microelectrode array (n = 14) was obtained from electronic chips developed for surface mounted device technology (SMD), whose size offers advantages to adapt them in batch cells. The effect of the dispensing rate, volume injected, distance between the platinum microelectrodes and the pipette tip, as well as the volume of solution in the cell on the analytical response were evaluated. The method allows the H(2)O(2) amperometric determination in the concentration range from 0.8 mu mol L(-1) to 100 mu mol L(-1). The analytical frequency can attain 300 determinations per hour and the detection limit was estimated in 0.34 mu mol L(-1) (3 sigma). The anodic current peaks obtained after a series of 23 successive injections of 50 mu L of 25 mu mol L(-1) H(2)O(2) showed an RSD < 0.9%. To ensure the good selectivity to detect H(2)O(2), its determination was performed in a differential mode, with selective destruction of the H(2)O(2) with catalase in 10 mmol L(-1) phosphate buffer solution. Practical application of the analytical procedure involved H(2)O(2) determination in rainwater of Sao Paulo City. A comparison of the results obtained by the proposed ampermetric method with another one which combines flow injection analysis (FIA) with spectrophotometric detection showed good agreement. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electronic Structure and Chemical Bonding in the Ground and Low-Lying Electronic States of Ta(2)

The electronic structure and chemical bonding of the ground and low-lying Lambda - S and Omega states of Ta(2) were investigated at the multiconfiguration second-order perturbation theory (CASSCF//CASPT2) level. The ground state of Ta(2) is computed to be a X(3)Sigma(-)(g) state (R(e) = 2.120 angstrom, omega(e) = 323 cm(-1), and D(e) = 4.65 eV), with two low-lying singlet states close to it (a(1) Sigma(+)(g) : T(e) = 409 cm(-1), R(e) = 2.131 angstrom, and omega(e) = 313 cm(-1); b(1) Gamma(g): T(e) = 1, 038 cm(-1), R(e) = 2.127 angstrom, and omega(e) = 316 cm(-1)). These electronic states are derived from the same electronic configuration: vertical bar 13 sigma(2)(g)14 sigma(2)(g)7 delta(2)(g)13 pi(4)(u)>. The effective bond order of the X(3) Sigma(-)(g) state is 4.52, which indicates that the Ta atoms are bound by a quintuple chemical bond. The a(1) Sigma(+)(g) state interacts strongly with the X(3)Sigma(-)(g) g ground state by a second-order spin-orbit interaction, giving rise to the (1)0(g)(+) (ground state) (dominated by the X(3)Sigma(-)(g) Lambda - S ground state) and (9)0(g)(+) (dominated by the a(1) Sigma(+)(g) Lambda - S state) Omega states. These results are in line with those reported for the group 5B homonuclear transition metal diatomics. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem 111: 1306-1315, 2011