The Baltic states’ Territorial Defence Forces in the face of hybrid threats. OSW Commentary Number 165, 19.03.2015

From the Introduction. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aggression in eastern Ukraine have triggered a debate about the main directions of defence policy in the Nordic and Baltic region. In the Baltic states, but also in the Nordic countries and Poland, much attention is being paid to questions of Territorial Defence Forces (TDF). TDF are viewed as one of the elements in the national defence systems’ response during the early stages of a hybrid conflict. The Baltic states have decided to adapt their Territorial Defence Forces to new threats by making a number of changes to their functioning, depending on the local conditions in each case. Given the growing uncertainty in the region, they have opted not to undertake any in-depth reforms of TDF at this stage, as that could entail a temporary disorganisation in the armed forces. In the coming years Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will invest in increasing the size and combat readiness of their Territorial Defence Forces, providing them with better training and equipment, and creating a system of incentives to encourage more people to serve in volunteer formations.

Stable isotopes, Mg/Ca-ratios, and biogenic opal of five sediment cores from the subarctic northwest Pacific

Based on models and proxy data it has been proposed that salinity-driven stratification weakened in the subarctic North Pacific during the last deglaciation, which potentially contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. We present high-resolution subsurface temperature (TMg/Ca) and subsurface salinity-approximating (d18Oivc-sw) records across the last 20,000 years from the subarctic North Pacific and its marginal seas, derived from combined stable oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of the planktonic foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.). Our results indicate regionally differing changes of subsurface conditions. During the Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas cold phases our sites were subject to reduced thermal stratification, brine rejection due to sea-ice formation, and increased advection of low-salinity water from the Alaskan Stream. In contrast, the Bølling-Allerød warm phase was characterized by strengthened thermal stratification, stronger sea-ice melting, and influence of surface waters that were less diluted by the Alaskan Stream. From direct comparison with alkenone-based sea surface temperature estimates (SSTUk'37), we suggest deglacial thermocline changes that were closely related to changes in seasonal contrasts and stratification of the mixed layer. The modern upper-ocean conditions seem to have developed only since the early Holocene.