Radiative-dynamical climatology of the first-generation Canadian middle atmosphere model

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Modelling (MAM) project is a collaboration between thé Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) of Environment Canada and several Canadian universities. Its goal is thé development of a comprehensive General Circulation Model of the troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere System, starting from the AES/CCCma third-generation atmospheric General Circulation Model. This paper describes the basic features of the first-generation Canadian MAM and some aspects of its radiative-dynamical climatology. Standard first-order mean diagnostics are presented for monthly means and for the annual cycle of zonal-mean winds and temperatures. The mean meridional circulation is examined, and comparison is made between thé steady diabatic, downward controlled, and residual stream functions. It is found that downward control holds quite well in the monthly mean through most of the middle atmosphere, even during equinoctal periods. The relative roles of different drag processes in determining the mean downwelling over the wintertime polar middle stratosphere is examined, and the vertical structure of the drag is quantified.

A unified theory of available potential energy

Traditional derivations of available potential energy, in a variety of contexts, involve combining some form of mass conservation together with energy conservation. This raises the questions of why such constructions are required in the first place, and whether there is some general method of deriving the available potential energy for an arbitrary fluid system. By appealing to the underlying Hamiltonian structure of geophysical fluid dynamics, it becomes clear why energy conservation is not enough, and why other conservation laws such as mass conservation need to be incorporated in order to construct an invariant, known as the pseudoenergy, that is a positive‐definite functional of disturbance quantities. The available potential energy is just the non‐kinetic part of the pseudoenergy, the construction of which follows a well defined algorithm. Two notable features of the available potential energy defined thereby are first, that it is a locally defined quantity, and second, that it is inherently definable at finite amplitude (though one may of course always take the small‐amplitude limit if this is appropriate). The general theory is made concrete by systematic derivations of available potential energy in a number of different contexts. All the well known expressions are recovered, and some new expressions are obtained. The possibility of generalizing the concept of available potential energy to dynamically stable basic flows (as opposed to statically stable basic states) is also discussed.

Estimated dietary intakes and sources of flavanols in the German population (German National Nutrition Survey II)

Background/Objectives Data from intervention studies suggest a beneficial effect of flavanols on vascular health. However, insufficient data on their intake have delayed the assessment of their health benefits. The aim of this study was to estimate intake of flavanols and their main sources among people living in Germany. Subjects/Methods Data from diet history interviews of the German National Nutrition Survey II for 15,371 people across Germany aged 14–80 years were analyzed. The FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database was compiled using the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer Databases and expanded to include recipes and retention factors. Results Mean intake of total flavanols, flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA), and theaflavins in Germany was 386, 120, 196, and 70 mg/day, respectively. Women had higher intakes of total flavanols (399 mg/day) than men (372 mg/day) in all age groups, with the exception of the elderly. Similar results were observed for monomers (108 mg/day for men, 131 mg/day for women) and PA (190 mg/day; 203 mg/day), although intake of theaflavins was higher in men (74 mg/day; 66 mg/day). There was an age gradient with an increase in total flavanols, monomers, and theaflavins across the age groups. The major contributor of total flavanols in all subjects was pome fruits (27 %) followed by black tea (25 %). Conclusions This study demonstrated age- and sex-related variations in the intake and sources of dietary flavanols in Germany. The current analysis will provide a valuable tool in clarifying and confirming the potential health benefits of flavanols.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

Effects of a web-based personalized intervention on physical activity in European adults: a randomized controlled trial

Background: The high prevalence of physical inactivity worldwide calls for innovative and more effective ways to promote physical activity (PA). There are limited objective data on the effectiveness of Web-based personalized feedback on increasing PA in adults. Objective: It is hypothesized that providing personalized advice based on PA measured objectively alongside diet, phenotype, or genotype information would lead to larger and more sustained changes in PA, compared with nonpersonalized advice. Methods: A total of 1607 adults in seven European countries were randomized to either a control group (nonpersonalized advice, Level 0, L0) or to one of three personalized groups receiving personalized advice via the Internet based on current PA plus diet (Level 1, L1), PA plus diet and phenotype (Level 2, L2), or PA plus diet, phenotype, and genotype (Level 3, L3). PA was measured for 6 months using triaxial accelerometers, and self-reported using the Baecke questionnaire. Outcomes were objective and self-reported PA after 3 and 6 months. Results: While 1270 participants (85.81% of 1480 actual starters) completed the 6-month trial, 1233 (83.31%) self-reported PA at both baseline and month 6, but only 730 (49.32%) had sufficient objective PA data at both time points. For the total cohort after 6 months, a greater improvement in self-reported total PA (P=.02) and PA during leisure (nonsport) (P=.03) was observed in personalized groups compared with the control group. For individuals advised to increase PA, we also observed greater improvements in those two self-reported indices (P=.006 and P=.008, respectively) with increased personalization of the advice (L2 and L3 vs L1). However, there were no significant differences in accelerometer results between personalized and control groups, and no significant effect of adding phenotypic or genotypic information to the tailored feedback at month 3 or 6. After 6 months, there were small but significant improvements in the objectively measured physical activity level (P<.05), moderate PA (P<.01), and sedentary time (P<.001) for individuals advised to increase PA, but these changes were similar across all groups. Conclusions: Different levels of personalization produced similar small changes in objective PA. We found no evidence that personalized advice is more effective than conventional “one size fits all” guidelines to promote changes in PA in our Web-based intervention when PA was measured objectively. Based on self-reports, PA increased to a greater extent with more personalized advice. Thus, it is crucial to measure PA objectively in any PA intervention study.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Luminescence characteristics of YAP:Ce scintillator powders and composites

Cerium doped yttrium aluminate perovskite YAlO(3) (YAP) powders are pursued as interesting alternatives to bulk crystals for application in scintillating devices. The emissions of these materials in the near-UV and visible spectral regions originate from electric dipole transitions between 4f and 5d energy levels of Ce(3+) and largely depend on the environment occupied by the ion. In search for improved synthesis conditions that can lead to phase pure powders with optimized structural and spectroscopic characteristics, in this work we have employed the polymeric precursor (Pechini) method to prepare crystalline and amorphous YAP:Ce powders doped with 1-10 mol% Ce(3+). Interesting composite materials were also obtained by dispersing some of the YAP:Ce powders in silica xerogels. A comparative structural and spectroscopic study of all the samples was done by XRD, FT-IR, emission, excitation and excited state lifetime measurements. In agreement with previous reports, excitation at 296 nm results in intense emission in the range 315-425 nm with an average decay time of 30 ns. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hur retusch påverkar skönhetsannonsers attraktion : En studie om målgruppens åsikter och köplust

Tidigare studier som gjorts inom området visade att kvinnor anser att kvinnors skönhet inte är värderad enligt rimliga normer i vårt samhälle. Hård retuschering motarbetas på många håll, bland annat genom att organisationer som ASA (Advertising Standards Authority) och politiska partier som Liberaldemokraterna i Storbritannien arbetar för att missledande retuschering ska försvinna. En studie har visat att det, för att öka annonsers attraktionskraft, är viktigt att den ökade skönheten hos en modell är relevant för produktens användningsområde, då betraktaren anstränger sig intellektuellt vid betraktandet av bilden. Det finns dock inga tidigare studier som bevisar om en retuscherad modell faktiskt ökar målgruppens köplust av skönhetsprodukter vid rådande samhällsattityder och skönhetsideal. Två enkätundersökningar gjordes därför med sammanlagt 1480 deltagare. Produkten i studien var en fiktiv hudkräm. Genom att i den ena undersökningen låta betraktaren möta modellbilden i en situation som efterliknade verkligheten, på så sätt att de inte fick veta om den var retuscherad, kunde studien svara på om retuschering ökade köplusten. Bilder med bortretuscherade skönhetsfläckar och utväxt prefererades. Att retuschera bort flyghår ökade inte köplusten. I den andra jämförande undersökningen kunde betraktaren jämföra den retuscherade med den oretuscherade modellbilden. Resultaten visade att skönhetsfläckar och flyghår tillåts och prefereras borttagna, men inte utväxt. I intervjuer med fem kvinnor hördes målgruppens attityder om vad som ansågs var tillåtet att retuschera. Svaren tydde på att en relevant och försiktig retuschering prefererades. Att lämna några födelsemärken ökade trovärdigheten.

Aspectos da sedimentação na região nordeste da Lagoa dos Patos : lagoa do casamento e saco do cocuruto - RS - Brasil

A formação da Lagoa dos Patos foi condicionada pelo desenvolvimento de uma barreira múltipla, arenosa, sob a influência das oscilações eustáticas ocorridas durante o Quaternário. Os aspectos geomorfológicos da margem lagunar desta barreira evidenciam a existência de pelo menos quatro ciclos de transgressão e regressão. Os processos de sedimentação que os acompanharam, proporcionaram a compartimentação da laguna mediante o crescimento de pontais arenosos, mecanismo que deu origem a Lagoa - do Casamento e ao Saco do Cocuruto. Os sedimentos do fundo destes corpos lagunares são arenosos e silticos. As fácies arenosas ocorrem nas partes marginais e rasas e tem suas caracteristicas texturais influenciadas pelo tipo de material das áreas fonte, da natureza, intensidade e tempo de atuação dos agentes de sedimentação. As fácies silticas ocupam as porções centrais, mais profundas. As zonas intermediárias são atapetadas por fácies transicionais areno-silticas e silto-arenosas.Os terrenos quaternários da margem lagunar, retrabalhados durante os ciclos transgressivos, constituem a principal fonte dos sedimentos lagunares. Parte do material siltico trazido em suspensão pelas águas da Lagoa dos Patos que ingressam na Lagoa do Casamento, provém das terras altas que margeiam a provincia Costeira. Os principais agentes envolvidos nos processos de sedimentação são o vento, as ondas e as correntes lagunares. A circulação das águas é também influenciada pelos sistemas fluviais atuantes na região. A sedimentação se processa em um ambiente de águas rasas e doces, levemente ácidas, oxidantes nas margens e pouco redutoras nas partes centrais. A atividade biológica bentônica é reduzida e relacionada a uma pequena fauna de moluscos. A evolução geomorfológica da área controlou os aspectos maiores da sedimentação no corpo lagunar. Tentativas de caracterização ambiental baseadas em análise granulométrica mostraram que os métodos de FOLK & WARD (1957), PASSEGA & BYRANJEE (1969) e DOEGLAS (1968),são efetivamente úteis na descrição e interpretação de ambientes recentes de sedimentação onde os parâmetros físicos são conhecidos. Entretanto a sua utilização como critério único na determinação paleo-ambiental fica prejudicada, pois a sedimentação em uma província costeira e policíclica e promovida por vários ambientes definidos que se deslocam no tempo e no espaço. Ocorre muitas vêzes que o rápido retrabalhamento de materiais depositados em ambientes de alta energia é incapaz de apagar as características texturais herdadas do ciclo anterior A maior parte dos sedimentos das fácies arenosas do fundo lagunar tem propriedades semelhantes aos depositados em ambientes praiais e eólicos.

Ingredient classification according to the digestible amino acid profile: an exploratory analysis

This study aimed: 1) to classify ingredients according to the digestible amino acid (AA) profile; 2) to determine ingredients with AA profile closer to the ideal for broiler chickens; and 3) to compare digestible AA profiles from simulated diets with the ideal protein profile. The digestible AA levels of 30 ingredients were compiled from the literature and presented as percentages of lysine according to the ideal protein concept. Cluster and principal component analyses (exploratory analyses) were used to compose and describe groups of ingredients according to AA profiles. Four ingredient groups were identified by cluster analysis, and the classification of the ingredients within each of these groups was obtained from a principal component analysis, showing 11 classes of ingredients with similar digestible AA profiles. The ingredients with AA profiles closer to the ideal protein were meat and bone meal 45, fish meal 60 and wheat germ meal, all of them constituting Class 1; the ingredients from the other classes gradually diverged from the ideal protein. Soybean meal, which is the main protein source for poultry, showed good AA balance since it was included in Class 3. on the contrary, corn, which is the main energy source in poultry diets, was classified in Class 8. Dietary AA profiles were improved when corn and/or soybean meal were partially or totally replaced in the simulations by ingredients with better AA balance.

Electrocatalysis on noble metal and noble metal alloys dispersed on high surface area carbon

In this work, a simple route to prepare carbon supported Pt/C, Pt:Ru/C, Pt:Mo/C and Pt:Ru:Mo/C catalysts is reported. The electrochemical properties of the several carbon materials used as substrates in the absence and in the presence of supported platinum and platinum alloys catalysts were investigated using cyclic voltammetry and employing the thin porous coating electrode technique. The activity of the dispersed catalysts composed of Pt/C with respect to the oxygen reduction and of alloy/C with respect to methanol oxidation was investigated using steady state polarization measurements. The performance with respect to the oxygen reduction reaction of the Pt/C catalyst prepared on heat-treated Vulcan carbon substrate is equivalent to that reported in the literature for the state-of-the-art electrocatysts. Pt:Ru:Mo/C samples prepared in this work presented the higher catalytic effect for methanol electro-oxidation.