Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Microstructural and mechanical characteristics of W-2Ti and W-1TiC processed by Hot Isostatic Pressing

It has been demonstrated that mechanical alloying and subsequent consolidation by hot isostatic pressing (HIP) is a successful route to produce dispersion strengthened W alloys with properties satisfying the design requirements of particular plasma facing components in the fusion reactor. However, the presence of the alloying element as a phase filling large interstices between W particles appears to reduce the mechanical properties of these alloys. In order to limit this phase separation induced by the HIP treatment and the detrimental effects on the mechanical properties, the enhancement of the mechanical alloying process, and the effect of a postconsolidation heat treatment in an reducing atmosphere, have been investigated.

Microstructure and mechanical properties degradation at high temperature of tungsten alloys processed by forging

One of the challenges of science and engineering nowadays is to develop new ways to supply energy in a sustainable and ecological mode. The fussion energy could be the final answer but a myriad of problems must be solved previously.

Microstructure and mechanical properties at high temperature of SiC-matrix by electrophoretic deposition and polymer infiltration and pyrolysis process

The EFDA-ITER programme for materials wants to develop new structural materials for future nuclear magnetic fusion reactors. In this context, special attention must be paid in the development of new composite materials that could support the hard working conditions of the nuclear fusion reactors: high temperature, high stresses, and high radiation.

Effect of fire on the microstructure and mechanical response of structural steels for building construction

The research is an exhaustive study of the microstructure and of the stress-strain curves of structural steel S460N at temperatures typical of a fire. It includes a fractographic study of the fracture suifaces of cylindrical specimens, tensile tested at different fire scenarios, explaining the relationship between the failure micromechanisms and temperature. The paper ends with the comparison between the experimentally found strain-stress curves with that one's proposed by the EUROCODE EC3, resulting that in the case of steel S460N these are on the side ofsafety.

Microstructural and mechanical characterization of annealed tungsten (W) and potassium-doped tungsten foils

Here we show that potassium-doped tungsten foil should be preferred to pure tungsten foil when considering tungsten laminate pipes for structural divertor applications. Potassium-doped tungsten materials are well known from the bulb industry and show an enhanced creep and recrystallization behaviour that can be explained by the formation of potassium-filled bubbles that are surrounding the elongated grains, leading to an interlocking of the microstructure. In this way, the ultra-fine grained (UFG) microstructure of tungsten foil can be stabilized and with it the extraordinary mechanical properties of the foil in terms of ductility, toughness, brittle-to-ductile transition, and radiation resistance. In this paper we show the results of three-point bending tests performed at room temperature on annealed pure tungsten and potassium-doped tungsten foils (800, 900, 1000, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1400, 1600, 1800, 2000, 2200, and 2400 °C for 1 h in vacuum). The microstructural assessment covers the measurement of the hardness and analyses of fractured surfaces as well as a comparison of the microstructure by optical microscopy. The results show that there is a positive effect of potassium-doped tungsten foils compared to pure tungsten foil and demonstrate the potential of the doped foil

Microstructural and mechanical characteristics of W-2Ti and W-1TiC processed by hot isostatic pressing

W–2Ti and W–1TiC alloys were produced by mechanical alloying and consolidation by hot isostatic pressing. The composition and microstructural characteristics of these alloys were studied by X-ray diffraction, energy dispersion spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The mechanical behavior of the consolidated alloys was characterized by microhardness measurements and three point bending tests. The mechanical characteristics of the W–2Ti alloy appear to be related to solution hardening. In W–1TiC, the residual porosity should be responsible for the poor behavior observed in comparison with W–2Ti.

Microstructure and mechanical properties of physical vapor deposited Cu/W nanoscale multilayers: Influence of layer thickness and temperature

Based on our previous knowledge on Cu/Nb nanoscale metallic multilayers (NMMs), Cu/WNMMs show a good potential for applications as heat skins in plasma experiments and armors, and it could be expected that the substitution of Nb byWwould increase the strength, particularly at high temperatures. To check this hypothesis, Cu/WNMMs with individual layer thicknesses ranging between 5 and 30 nm were deposited by physical vapour deposition, and their mechanical properties were measured by nanoindentation. The results showed that, contrary to Cu/Nb NMMs, the hardness was independent of the layer thickness and decreased rapidlywith temperature, especially above 200 °C. This behavior was attributed to the growth morphology of theWlayers aswell as the jagged Cu/W interface, both a consequence of the lowW adatom mobility during deposition. Therefore, future efforts on the development of Cu/Wmultilayers should concentrate on optimization of theWdeposition parameters via substrate heating and/or ion assisted deposition to increase the W adatom mobility during deposition.

Fracture micromechanisms and mechanical behavior of YBCO bulk superconductors at 77 and 300 K

In this study two YBa2Cu3O7−δ bulk superconductors were evaluated, with the aim of analyzing the influence of the processing method (TSMG and Bridgman) and the test temperature on their mechanical behavior. The relationship between their mechanical properties and fracture micromechanisms has also been studied. Both materials were tested at room and at service temperature. TPB tests were carried out to determine their mechanical behavior, strength and toughness. Moreover, one of the two materials, characterized by transversal microstructural anisotropy, was tested in two directions. Hardness of both materials at nano and micro scale was studied. The results show that the mechanical behavior of the materials is controlled by the defects and cracks that have been introduced during the processing of the materials. A good degree of agreement was found between the experimental crack defects detected by means of SEM and those gathered from the fracture mechanical analysis of the experimental data

Code assessment and modelling for Design Basis Accident Analysis of the European sodium fast reactor design. Part I: System description, modelling and benchmarking

The new reactor concepts proposed in the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) are conceived to improve the use of natural resources, reduce the amount of high-level radioactive waste and excel in their reliability and safe operation. Among these novel designs sodium fast reactors (SFRs) stand out due to their technological feasibility as demonstrated in several countries during the last decades. As part of the contribution of EURATOM to GIF the CP-ESFR is a collaborative project with the objective, among others, to perform extensive analysis on safety issues involving renewed SFR demonstrator designs. The verification of computational tools able to simulate the plant behaviour under postulated accidental conditions by code-to-code comparison was identified as a key point to ensure reactor safety. In this line, several organizations employed coupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic system codes able to simulate complex and specific phenomena involving multi-physics studies adapted to this particular fast reactor technology. In the “Introduction” of this paper the framework of this study is discussed, the second section describes the envisaged plant design and the commonly agreed upon modelling guidelines. The third section presents a comparative analysis of the calculations performed by each organisation applying their models and codes to a common agreed transient with the objective to harmonize the models as well as validating the implementation of all relevant physical phenomena in the different system codes.

Thermal and mechanical properties of recycled poly(Lactic acid)

Biodegradable polymers have experienced increased attention in recent years because of their wide range of applications in biomedical, packaging and agriculture fields. PLA, poly(lactic acid), is a linear aliphatic biodegradable thermoplastic polyester, with good mechanical properties, thermal stability, processability and low environmental impact, widely used as an alternative to conventional polymers. PLA products can be recycled after use either by remelting and reprocessing the material, or by hydrolysis to basic lactic acid [1]. The object of this communication is the study of the possible variation in physical properties induced by sub sequent reprocessing cycles of PLA.

Relationship between residual stresses and mechanical behavior in ceramic composites

En este trabajo, materiales de tipo alúmina/Y-TZP (ZrO2 tetragonal, estabilizada con 3 mol. % Y2O3), como sistema cerámico popular por sus mejoradas propiedades mecánicas en comparación con las cerámicas de alúmina puras, han sido estudiados en términos de propiedades mecánicas y tensiones residuales. El novedoso método de colado en cinta, consistente en el apilamiento de cintas de cerámica verde a temperatura ambiente y el uso de bajas presiones, se ha escogido para la presente investigación con el fin de poder aprovechar al máximo el futuro desarrollo de materiales laminados de alúmina-óxido de circonio. Se han determinado las propiedades de los materiales obtenidos por este nuevo método de procesamiento comparándolas con las de los materiales obtenidos por “slip casting”, con el fin de analizar si el método propuesto afecta a la microestructura y, por tanto, a las propiedades mecánicas y tensiones residuales propias de estos materiales. Para analizar la idoneidad del proceso de fabricación, utilizado para evitar la presencia de discontinuidades en las intercaras entre las láminas así como otros fenómenos que puedan interferir con las propiedades mecánicas, se estudiaron materiales cerámicos con la misma composición en cintas. Por otra parte también se analizó el efecto de la adición de óxido de circonio sobre la aparición de tensiónes residuales en cerámicas Al2O3/Y-TZP, teniendo en cuenta su notable influencia sobre las propiedades microestructurales y mecánicas de los materiales, así como el requisito de co-sinterización de capas con diferentes materiales compuestos en materiales laminados. La caracterización del material incluye la determinación de la densidad, el análisis de la microestructura, la obtención de las propiedades mecánicas (módulo de elasticidad, dureza, resistencia a la flexión y tenacidad de fractura) así como de las tensiones residuales. En combinación con otros métodos de medida tradicionales, la nanoindentación también se empleó como una técnica adicional para la medida del módulo de elasticidad y de la dureza. Por otro lado, diferentes técnicas de difracción con neutrones, tanto las basadas en longitud de onda constante (CW) como en tiempo de vuelo (TOF), han sido empleadas para la medición fiable de la deformación residual a través del grosor en muestras a granel. Las tensiones residuales fueron determinadas con elevada precisión, aplicando además métodos de análisis apropiados, como por ejemplo el refinamiento de Rietveld. Las diferentes fases en cerámicas sinterizadas, especialmente las de zirconia, se examinaron con detalle mediante el análisis de Rietveld, teniendo en cuenta el complicado polimorfismo del Óxido de Zirconio (ZrO2) así como las posibles transformaciones de fase durante el proceso de fabricación. Los efectos del contenido de Y-TZP en combinación con el nuevo método de procesamiento sobre la microestructura, el rendimiento mecánico y las tensiones residuales de los materiales estudiados (Al2O3/Y-TZP) se resumen en el presente trabajo. Finalmente, los mecanismos de endurecimiento, especialmente los relacionados con las tensiones residuales, son igualmente discutidos. In present work, Alumina/Y-TZP (tetragonal ZrO2 stabilized with 3 mol% Y2O3) materials, as an popular ceramic system with improved mechanical properties compared with the pure alumina ceramics, have been studied in terms of mechanical properties and residual stresses. The novel tape casting method, which involved the stacking of green ceramics tapes at room temperature and using low pressures, is selected for manufacturing and investigation, in order to take full advantage of the future development of alumina-zirconia laminated materials. Features of materials obtained by the new processing method are determined and compared with those of materials obtained by conventional slip casting in a plaster mold, in order to study whether the proposed method of processing affects microstructure and thereby the mechanical properties and residual stresses characteristics of materials. To analyse the adequacy of the manufacturing process used to avoid the presence of discontinuities at the interfaces between the sheets and other phenomena that interfere with the mechanical properties, ceramic materials with the same composition in tapes were investigated. Moreover, the effect of addition of zirconia on residual stress development of Al2O3/Y-TZP ceramics were taken into investigations, considering its significantly influence on the microstructure and mechanical properties of materials as well as the requirement of co-sintering of layers with different composites in laminated materials. The characterization includes density, microstructure, mechanical properties (elastic modulus, hardness, flexure strength and fracture toughness) and residual stresses. Except of the traditional measurement methods, nanoindentation technique was also used as an additional measurement of the elastic modulus and hardness. Neutron diffraction, both the constant-wavelength (CW) and time-of-flight (TOF) neutron diffraction techniques, has been used for reliable through-thickness residual strain measurement in bulk samples. Residual stresses were precisely determined combined with appropriate analysis methods, e.g. the Rietveld refinement. The phase compositions in sintered ceramics especially the ones of zirconia were accurately examined by Rietveld analysis, considering the complex polymorph of ZrO2 and the possible phase transformation during manufacturing process. Effects of Y-TZP content and the new processing method on the microstructure, mechanical performance and residual stresses were finally summarized in present studied Al2O3/Y-TZP materials. The toughening mechanisms, especially the residual stresses related toughening, were theoretically discussed.

The effects of tantalum addition on the microtexture and mechanical behaviour of tungsten for ITER applications

Tungsten (W) and its alloys are very promising materials for producing plasma-facing components (PFCs) in the fusion power reactors of the near future, even as a structural part in them. However, whereas the properties of pure tungsten are suitable for a PFC, its structural applications are still limited due to its low toughness, ductile to brittle transition temperature and recrystallization behaviour. Therefore, many efforts have been made to improve its performance by alloying tungsten with other elements. Hence, in this investigation, the thermo-mechanical performance of two new tungsten-tantalum materials has been evaluated. Materials with We5wt.%Ta and We15wt.%Ta were processed by mechanical alloying (MA) and later consolidation by hot isostatic pressing (HIP), with distinct settings for each composition. Thus, it was possible to determine the relationship between the microstructure and the addition of Ta with the macroscopic mechanical properties. These were measured by means of hardness, flexural strength and fracture toughness, in the temperature range of 300e1473 K. The microstructure and the fracture surfaces features of the tested materials were analysed by Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM).

Topographical and mechanical characterization of living eukaryotic cells on opaque substrates: development of a general procedure and its application to the study of non-adherent lymphocytes

The mechanical behavior of living murine T-lymphocytes was assessed by atomic force microscopy (AFM). A robust experimental procedure was developed to overcome some features of lymphocytes, in particular their spherical shape and non-adherent character. The procedure included the immobilization of the lymphocytes on amine-functionalized substrates, the use of hydrodynamic effects on the deflection of the AFM cantilever to monitor the approaching, and the use of the jumping mode for obtaining the images. Indentation curves were analyzed according to Hertz's model for contact mechanics. The calculated values of the elastic modulus are consistent both when considering the results obtained from a single lymphocyte and when comparing the curves recorded from cells of different specimens

Tyrosine replacement in P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 affects distinct kinetic and mechanical properties of bonds with P- and L-selectin

Selectins are adhesion molecules that initiate tethering and rolling of leukocytes on the vessel wall. Rolling requires rapid formation and breakage of selectin–ligand bonds that must have mechanical strength to resist premature dissociation by the forces applied in shear flow. P- and L-selectin bind to the N-terminal region of P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 (PSGL-1), a mucin on leukocytes. To define determinants on PSGL-1 that contribute to the kinetic and mechanical properties of bonds with selectins, we compared rolling of transfected preB cells expressing P- or L-selectin on transfected cell monolayers expressing wild-type PSGL-1 or PSGL-1 constructs with substitutions in targeted N-terminal residues. Rolling through P- or L-selectin required a Thr or Ser at a specific position on PSGL-1, the attachment site for an essential O-glycan, but required only one of three nearby Tyr residues, which are sites for Tyr-SO3 formation. The adhesive strengths and numbers of cells rolling through P- or L-selectin were similar on wild-type PSGL-1 and on each of the three PSGL-1 constructs containing only a single Tyr. However, the cells rolled more irregularly on the single-Tyr forms of PSGL-1. Analysis of the lifetimes of transient tethers on limiting densities of PSGL-1 revealed that L-selectin dissociated faster from single-Tyr than wild-type PSGL-1 at all shears examined. In sharp contrast, P-selectin dissociated faster from single-Tyr than wild-type PSGL-1 at higher shear but not at lower shear. Thus, tyrosine replacements in PSGL-1 affect distinct kinetic and mechanical properties of bonds with P- and L-selectin.