Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

The combination of neural estimates in prediction and decision problems

In this dissertation, different ways of combining neural predictive models or neural-based forecasts are discussed. The proposed approaches consider mostly Gaussian radial basis function networks, which can be efficiently identified and estimated through recursive/adaptive methods. Two different ways of combining are explored to get a final estimate – model mixing and model synthesis –, with the aim of obtaining improvements both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In the context of model mixing, the usual framework for linearly combining estimates from different models is extended, to deal with the case where the forecast errors from those models are correlated. In the context of model synthesis, and to address the problems raised by heavily nonstationary time series, we propose hybrid dynamic models for more advanced time series forecasting, composed of a dynamic trend regressive model (or, even, a dynamic harmonic regressive model), and a Gaussian radial basis function network. Additionally, using the model mixing procedure, two approaches for decision-making from forecasting models are discussed and compared: either inferring decisions from combined predictive estimates, or combining prescriptive solutions derived from different forecasting models. Finally, the application of some of the models and methods proposed previously is illustrated with two case studies, based on time series from finance and from tourism.

Organizations redesign and building of information systems

Develop software is still a risky business. After 60 years of experience, this community is still not able to consistently build Information Systems (IS) for organizations with predictable quality, within previously agreed budget and time constraints. Although software is changeable we are still unable to cope with the amount and complexity of change that organizations demand for their IS. To improve results, developers followed two alternatives: Frameworks that increase productivity but constrain the flexibility of possible solutions; Agile ways of developing software that keep flexibility with less upfront commitments. With strict frameworks, specific hacks have to be put in place to get around the framework construction options. In time this leads to inconsistent architectures that are harder to maintain due to incomplete documentation and human resources turnover. The main goals of this work is to create a new way to develop flexible IS for organizations, using web technologies, in a faster, better and cheaper way that is more suited to handle organizational change. To do so we propose an adaptive object model that uses a new ontology for data and action with strict normalizing rules. These rules should bound the effects of changes that can be better tested and therefore corrected. Interfaces are built with templates of resources that can be reused and extended in a flexible way. The “state of the world” for each IS is determined by all production and coordination acts that agents performed over time, even those performed by external systems. When bugs are found during maintenance, their past cascading effects can be checked through simulation, re-running the log of transaction acts over time and checking results with previous records. This work implements a prototype with part of the proposed system in order to have a preliminary assessment its feasibility and limitations.

Transport modelling: macro and micro simulation for the studied case of Funchal

The work done in this thesis attempts to demonstrate the importance of using models that can predict and represent the mobility of our society. To answer the proposed challenges two models were examined, the first corresponds to macro simulation with the intention of finding a solution to the frequency of the bus company Horários do Funchal, responsible for transport in the city of Funchal, and some surrounding areas. Where based on a simplified model of the city it was possible to increase the frequency of journeys getting an overall reduction in costs. The second model concerns the micro simulation of Avenida do Mar, where currently is being built a new roundabout (Praça da Autonomia), which connects with this avenue. Therefore it was proposed to study the impact on local traffic, and the implementation of new traffic lights for this purpose. Four possible situations in which was seen the possibility of increasing the number of lanes on the roundabout or the insertion of a bus lane were created. The results showed that having a roundabout with three lanes running is the best option because the waiting queues are minimal, and at environmental level this model will project fewer pollutants. Thus, this thesis presents two possible methods of urban planning. Transport modelling is an area that is under constant development, the global goal is to encourage more and more the use of these models, and as such it is important to have more people to devote themselves to studying new ways of addressing current problems, so that we can have more accurate models and increasing their credibility.

Parasitology of juvenile mullet (Mugil liza) and effect of formaldehyde on parasites and host

Few studies have been performed with parasites of marine and estuarine fish in southern Brazil. In the present study, unpublished results show the ways of parasitism of juvenile mullet by parasites. The toxicity of formaldehyde and the effectiveness of this chemotherapy in controlling parasites in reared juvenile mullet Mugil liza were also studied. Juvenile mullets (1 +/- 0.26 g; 4.1 +/- 0.4 cm) were exposed to different concentrations of 37% formaldehyde: control group and five formaldehyde concentrations which were tested: T1 (13.5), T2 (21.6), T3 (40.5), T4 (81) and T5 (135) mg L-1 with 8 fish per repetition in triplicate. To verify the drug effectiveness in parasitic control, juvenile mullets were exposed to 1 h prophylactic bath of 37% formaldehyde with a control group and five formaldehyde concentrations: T1 (67.5), T2 (135), T3 (270), T4 (405) and T5 (540) mg L-1, 8 fish per repetition in triplicate. Ligophorus cf. uruguayensis (Monogenoidea: Ancyrocephalidae) and Solostamenides cf. platyorchis (Monogenoidea: Microcotylidae) were identified in the gills. Digenea and Nematoda were observed in the intestines. This is the first occurrence of S. cf. platyorchis in Brazil. During the toxicity test, the LC50-96 h was estimated at 20.77 mg L-1 of formaldehyde. During the 1 h formaldehyde prophylactic bath, all parasites were eliminated in formaldehyde concentrations between 135 and 540 mg L-1. High survival rate was observed in all treatments. Values of prevalence and intensity of infestation observed in this study showed the potential damage caused by Monogenoidea to mullet. Formaldehyde baths with 135 mg L-1 are recommended to control Monogenoidea in mullet and the safe limits for formaldehyde use were presented. Besides, the endoparasites were tolerant to formaldehyde exposure. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mestres e aprendiz: perambulando por ilhas de resistência

Monoculture of mind This idea, presented by Vandana Shiva, reflects the phase that we have experienced in the world: a notion of civilization that, since many decades, characterized by a technocratic big trend, has been shown as dominant and hegemonic. Based on a thinking and acting, felling and whishing standardization, this wave ends implying in what can be called of humanity‟s crisis at civilizational process. Destruction of simpler and more harmonious lifestyles with nature, human relations increasingly distant, values embrittlement, as respect, goodness and love, are some consequences of that behavioral homogenization. In the other hand, appears an archipelago of cultural and cognitive resistance against this devastating wave. Edgar Morin and Ceiça Almeida refer to this archipelago as a South Thought , what is not just a geographic question. Report, therefore, to some places, peoples, island that keep ancient costumes and knowledge, orally transmitted, for instance, from elders to younger, or vice versa, in an almost constant flow. Particular ways of experiencing the world around themselves, the men, animals, plants, rocks, or even not alive beings, masters or enchanted, spiritual guides. Next to a logic of sensitive, as Claude Levi-Strauss proposes, this reading, which is a more attentive, observer and wiser posture of surroundings, is based on touching, smelling, eating, seeing, and, I would add, felling. In light of this, I try to expatiate about certain experiences that I had the pleasure of living in some of these islands of resistance. Talks, perceptions, observations, sensations Stories, prose, poetries, music, photos, graphics Whatever could serve to portray even a bit of the reflections and forms to understand (ourselves) and produce knowledge, such as from a formation/Education to life, was well used at this ethnographic work. Space to the subjectivity and emotions I had, have, and will have a lot Everything for the dear reader may fell traveling around the world of tradition, resistance

Ensino por investigação: contribuições de um curso de formação continuada para a prática de professores de ciências naturais e biologia

Normally initial teacher training has not been sufficient to provide all the tools for an updated and efficient teaching practice. It is presented here one of the ways of working the completion of the initial training through a course of continuing education. This course is based on inquiry teaching which is considered an important teaching strategy for science education. This kind of teaching enables improvement of students reasoning and cognitive skills, the cooperation among them, the understanding of the nature of scientific work, and the motivation to think about the relationship between science, technology, society and environment. For this dissertation a course of continuing education based on this approach was followed in order to evaluate which contributions it can bring to the teaching practice. The course was followed based on three stages: on the first there was a questionnaire and an informal interview; next it happened through participant observation with audio and visual aid; the third stage happened through semi structured interview. The collected information was analyzed based on Content Analysis. An inquiry teaching pedagogical material was produced for the course including some examples and applications of this approach. The aim of the material is that it can be a support for the teachers after de course. The results allowed seeing that the course was very useful, different from the traditional and the teachers that put the approach to use found it to be very positive. Thus it can be said that some of the teachers who participated will try again to apply it, try to contextualize more the teaching situations with the students day to day life, as well make them more active and critic. We can also gather from the study, that the inquiry teaching is a very different tool from what the teacher was taught and is accustomed to use and the theoretical comprehension, acceptance and practice change is a complicated process and demands time

Palavras da maldição: O Ceará de José Alcides Pinto entre símbolos e alegorias.

This work treats about the speeches that produced the crisis of symbols of Ceará, researching on matters and ways of expression of space between 1950s and 1970s. Therefore, we search discursive practices that since the end of nineteenth century built the identity of Ceará and in the middle of twentieth century produced the crisis of modes of seeing and telling the space in front of enunciations of the national modernization, especially with the emergence of politics by SUDENE to the Northeast, the progressive actions by Catholic Church, the defense of tradition by regional literature of union of Ceará Clã. The contradictions between the glorification and fear the modernization of Brazil produced on the space speeches that his identity would be fractured, that the old symbols of drought, cangaço, mysticism and colonels declined. Among analyzed speeches, we centered the analysis of Trilogia da Maldição formed of novels O Dragão, of 1964, Os Verdes Abutres da Colina and João Pinto de Maria: a biografia de um louco by José Alcides Pinto. In this novel, the enunciation of the crisis of symbologies about the space produced another aesthetic, the allegory, which, mixed with the mystical and melancholy, in search of ways to restore the language of the old themes Ceará, drop of Ceará the same stigma of anti-modern space, where the images of delay changed icons of a fractured identity in front of the modern streams, where the word was transformed in the dimension precarious and redeemer of the tradition, of old, of nature, of the plenitude of senses. In Jose Alcides, the colonel returns as the origin of the lost space, the drought is the revolt of God against the devil place, the apocalypse, the end imminent threat to the village, signs that fantastic, however, are in dialogue with the settings space and time in which they were produced

Characterization of small-scale fisheries in the Camamu-Almada basin, southeast state of Bahia, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Life strategies of some long-distance migratory catfish in relation to hydroelectric dams in the Amazon Basin

In this paper, we present evidence that the long-distance migratory catfish Brachyplatystoma filamentosum, B. flavicans, B. vaillantii, Goslinia platynema and Lithodoras dorsalis spawn in the headstreams of the Amazon river and its tributaries and that the estuary of the Amazon is the main nursery ground utilized by their alevins. The impact of hydroelectric dams on their populations are discussed in terms of interruption to fish migration routes up river and to larvae moving down river, provided that the hypothesis above holds. Ways of mitigating the impact are also considered. © 1991.

On a possible dual role for central noradrenaline in the control of hydromineral fluid intake

Noradrenaline (NOR) is a neurotransmitter presenl in the central nervous system which is related to the control of ingestive behavior of food and fluids. We describe here the relationship between NOR and intake of water and NaCl solution, fluids that are essential for a normal body fluid electrolytic balance. Central NOR has an inhibitory effect on fluid intake, but it either induces or not alterations in food intake. Several ways of inducing water intake, such as water deprivation, meal-associated water intake, administration of angiotensinergic, cholinergic or beta-adrenergic agonists, or administration of hyperosmotic solutions, are inhibited by alpha-adrenergic agonists. Need-induced sodium intake by sodium-depleted animals is also inhibited by alpha-adrenergic agonists. NOR can also facilitate fluid intake. Water intake is elicited by NOR and the integrity of central noradrenergic systems is necessary for a normal expression of water or salt intake in dehydrated animals. The angiotensinergic component of either behavior apparently depends on a central noradrenergic system. NOR probably facililates fluid intake by acting on postsynaptic receptors, but we do not know how it inhibits fluid infake. The inhibitory and facilitatory effects of NOR on ingestive behavior suggest a dual role for this neurotransmitter in the control of hydromineral fluid intake.

The δ expansion and the principle of minimal sensitivity

The δ-expansion is a nonperturbative approach for field theoretic models which combines the techniques of perturbation theory and the variational principle. Different ways of implementing the principle of minimal sensitivity to the δ-expansion produce in general different results for observables. For illustration we use the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model for chiral symmetry restoration at finite density and compare results with those obtained with the Hartree-Fock approximation.

Bacillus thuringiensis development from 1971 to 1996: Cases of a research group in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Electromyographic validation of the trapezius and serratus anterior muscles in frontal-lateral cross, dumbbells exercises

Based on the lack of electromyographic researches on sport and programmes of physical conditioning, we can say that it is necessary to reexamine some exercises routinely used in the programmes of physical conditioning. Thus, the trapezius and serratus anterior muscles were studied electromyographically so that we could evaluate the validity in some ways of execution of the frontal-lateral cross, dumbbells exercises for the development of these muscles. We analyzed 24 male volunteers, 18 to 25 years old, using a 2-channel TECA TE 4 electromyograph and Hewlett Packard surface electrodes. For the execution of the exercise it was used a supine bench, a straight board and two bars of 40 cm made of light wood. The results showed that TS acted preferentially in standing modality and in the inclined supine modality, however with activity levels that do not justify its inclusion in physical fitness programmes.

Evaluation of race distance, track surface and season of the year on exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage in flat racing Thoroughbreds in Brazil

Reasons for performing study: To our knowledge no studies evaluating risk factors to EIPH have been undertaken with such a population of horses in Brazil, which is one of the few countries in the racing community to accept the use of frusemide (FUR) as a prerace medication for bleeders. We also compared national results with those already in the literature. Objectives: To verify the influence of variables such as distance of the race, racetrack surface, going and season of the year in the recurrence and severity of EIPH and its effect on the finishing position of flat racing Thoroughbreds in Brazil. Methods: 2118 post race respiratory endoscopies were recorded, in a total of 1003 individual horses. All horses in the study were certified bleeders (deemed positive by registered veterinarians following one or more endoscopies) and were administered FUR prior to each race. Data was analysed using both ordinary logistic regression and multiple logistic regression. Results: The results suggest that race distance, season of the year and racetrack surface affect the recurrence of EIPH. Also, despite the use of FUR, the majority (62%) of horses continued to display some degree of haemorrhage. Conclusions: There was a tendency for horses that remained positive despite the use of FUR to finish unplaced in a race. Horses which had a significant reduction in bleeding and became HPIE negative after the use of FUR, tended to finish in top positions. It was not possible to determine a pattern of severity of EIPH in horses with more than one endoscopy. Further studies are required to improve our understanding of this syndrome and its correlations to performance in the racing Thoroughbred, together with the role of FUR and its possible enhancing performance effects and efficacy in consistently diminishing EIPH. Potential relevance: This study enabled a better understanding of the use of FUR in Brazilian Thoroughbred racehorses and showed there was a tendency towards improvement in performance after administrion of FUR in bleeders. The fact that a large number of horses remained positive for EIPH despite the use of FUR should encourage the scientific community to search for better ways of reducing, or preventing, this syndrome. © 2006 EVJ Ltd.