El papel de las ideas en ciencia y tecnología en los primeros años de COLCIENCIAS

El presente artículo busca responder hasta qué punto pensar y participar en espacios de discusión acerca de la política de ciencia y tecnología permite resolver las tensiones propias de la interrelación de actores de la política de ciencia y tecnología, así como también legitimar la acción y decisión de la entidad llamada a diseñar la política científico-tecnológica. Con el acento puesto en las dos primeras décadas de funcionamiento de Colciencias, se concluye que la participación de los policy makers de esta entidad en las discusiones de ciencia y tecnología, así como la preocupación por pensar la ciencia y la tecnología en el entorno del modelo de desarrollo imperante en el momento, permitió una mayor consistencia y coherencia entre instrumentos y políticas y un diálogo legítimo con otras entidades y actores que por su naturaleza también implementaban políticas que afectaban a la ciencia y la tecnología.

Automatic diagnosis of voltage disturbances in power distribution networks

This thesis proposes a framework for identifying the root-cause of a voltage disturbance, as well as, its source location (upstream/downstream) from the monitoring place. The framework works with three-phase voltage and current waveforms collected in radial distribution networks without distributed generation. Real-world and synthetic waveforms are used to test it. The framework involves features that are conceived based on electrical principles, and assuming some hypothesis on the analyzed phenomena. Features considered are based on waveforms and timestamp information. Multivariate analysis of variance and rule induction algorithms are applied to assess the amount of meaningful information explained by each feature, according to the root-cause of the disturbance and its source location. The obtained classification rates show that the proposed framework could be used for automatic diagnosis of voltage disturbances collected in radial distribution networks. Furthermore, the diagnostic results can be subsequently used for supporting power network operation, maintenance and planning.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

Observations of the diurnal cycle of outgoing longwave radiation from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument

The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument on Meteosat-8, located over Africa, provides unprecedented temporal sampling (~17 minutes) of the broadband emitted thermal and reflected solar radiances. We analyse the diurnal cycle of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluxes derived from the thermal radiances for July 2006. Principal component (PC) analysis separates the signals of the surface temperature response to solar heating and of the development of convective clouds. The first two PCs explain most of the OLR variations: PC1 (surface heating) explains 82.3% of the total variance and PC2 (cloud development) explains 12.8% of the variance. Convection is initiated preferentially over mountainous regions and the cloud then advects downstream in the ambient flow. Diurnal variations are much weaker over the oceans, but a coherent signal over the Gulf of Guinea suggests that the cloudiness is modulated by the diurnally varying contrast between the Gulf and the adjacent land mass.

MJO Simulation Diagnostics

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) interacts with and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, midlatitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multimodel comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, because of the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation to more sophisticated space–time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

The global response to tropical heating in the Madden-Julian oscillation during the northern winter

A life cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was constructed, based on 21 years of outgoing long-wave radiation data. Regression maps of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the northern winter show statistically significant upper-tropospheric equatorial wave patterns linked to the tropical convection anomalies, and extratropical wave patterns over the North Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and South America. To assess the cause of the circulation anomalies, a global primitive-equation model was initialized with the observed three-dimensional (3D) winter climatological mean flow and forced with a time-dependent heat source derived from the observed MJO anomalies. A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear. The model response is robust and insensitive to realistic changes in damping and basic state. The model tropical anomalies are consistent with a forced equatorial Rossby–Kelvin wave response to the tropical MJO heating, although it is shifted westward by approximately 20° longitude relative to observations. This may be due to a lack of damping processes (cumulus friction) in the regions of convective heating. Once this shift is accounted for, the extratropical response is consistent with theories of Rossby wave forcing and dispersion on the climatological flow, and the pattern correlation between the observed and modelled extratropical flow is up to 0.85. The observed tropical and extratropical wave patterns account for a significant fraction of the intraseasonal circulation variance, and this reproducibility as a response to tropical MJO convection has implications for global medium-range weather prediction. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Assessing the uncertainty associated with intermittent rainfall fields

[1] In many practical situations where spatial rainfall estimates are needed, rainfall occurs as a spatially intermittent phenomenon. An efficient geostatistical method for rainfall estimation in the case of intermittency has previously been published and comprises the estimation of two independent components: a binary random function for modeling the intermittency and a continuous random function that models the rainfall inside the rainy areas. The final rainfall estimates are obtained as the product of the estimates of these two random functions. However the published approach does not contain a method for estimation of uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is the presentation of the indicator maximum likelihood estimator from which the local conditional distribution of the rainfall value at any location may be derived using an ensemble approach. From the conditional distribution, representations of uncertainty such as the estimation variance and confidence intervals can be obtained. An approximation to the variance can be calculated more simply by assuming rainfall intensity is independent of location within the rainy area. The methodology has been validated using simulated and real rainfall data sets. The results of these case studies show good agreement between predicted uncertainties and measured errors obtained from the validation data.

Autoregressive conditional kurtosis

This article proposes a new model for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and kurtosis. Via a time-varying degrees of freedom parameter, the conditional variance and conditional kurtosis are permitted to evolve separately. The model uses only the standard Student’s t-density and consequently can be estimated simply using maximum likelihood. The method is applied to a set of four daily financial asset return series comprising U.S. and U.K. stocks and bonds, and significant evidence in favor of the presence of autoregressive conditional kurtosis is observed. Various extensions to the basic model are proposed, and we show that the response of kurtosis to good and bad news is not significantly asymmetric.

Non-D9-tetrahydrocannabinol phytocannabinoids stimulate feeding in rats

Cannabinoid type 1 receptor-mediated appetite stimulation by D9tetrahydrocannabinol (D9THC) is well understood. Recently, it has become apparent that non-D9THC phytocannabinoids could also alter feeding patterns. Here, we show definitively that non-D9THC phytocannabinoids stimulate feeding. Twelve male, Lister-Hooded rats were prefed to satiety prior to administration of a standardized cannabis extract or to either of two mixtures of pure phytocannabinoids (extract analogues) comprising the phytocannabinoids present in the same proportions as the standardized extract (one with and one without D9THC). Hourly intake and meal pattern data were recorded and analysed using two-way analysis of variance followed by one-way analysis of variance and Bonferroni post-hoc tests. Administration of both extract analogues significantly increased feeding behaviours over the period of the test. All three agents increased hour-one intake and meal-one size and decreased the latency to feed, although the zero-D9THC extract analogue did so to a lesser degree than the high-D9THC analogue. Furthermore, only the analogue containing D9THC significantly increased meal duration. The data confirm that at least one non-D9THC phytocannabinoid induces feeding pattern changes in rats, although further trials using individual phytocannabinoids are required to fully understand the observed effects.

Hyperactive governance in the Thames Gateway

This paper examines the implementation of brownfield regeneration policies in the UK within the context of complex systems of multi-level governance. Using the regeneration of the Thames Gateway as an example, it explores how the Government's centrally driven institutional arrangements have undermined leadership in this key development project. The Government's approach to brownfield governance is characterised as one of constant intervention in the Thames Gateway in an ad hoc and incoherent fashion. Congested and fragmented governance structures are the result. These, this paper argues, have diffused the focus and undermined the leadership of policy and implementation. It is suggested that the adoption of the principles of policy mapping and weaving would bring more clarity and coherence to the governance of the Thames Gateway.

Turbulence dynamics near a turbulent/non-turbulent interface

The characteristics of the boundary layer separating a turbulence region from an irrotational (or non-turbulent) flow region are investigated using rapid distortion theory (RDT). The turbulence region is approximated as homogeneous and isotropic far away from the bounding turbulent/non-turbulent (T/NT) interface, which is assumed to remain approximately flat. Inviscid effects resulting from the continuity of the normal velocity and pressure at the interface, in addition to viscous effects resulting from the continuity of the tangential velocity and shear stress, are taken into account by considering a sudden insertion of the T/NT interface, in the absence of mean shear. Profiles of the velocity variances, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), viscous dissipation rate (epsilon), turbulence length scales, and pressure statistics are derived, showing an excellent agreement with results from direct numerical simulations (DNS). Interestingly, the normalized inviscid flow statistics at the T/NT interface do not depend on the form of the assumed TKE spectrum. Outside the turbulent region, where the flow is irrotational (except inside a thin viscous boundary layer), epsilon decays as z^{-6}, where z is the distance from the T/NT interface. The mean pressure distribution is calculated using RDT, and exhibits a decrease towards the turbulence region due to the associated velocity fluctuations, consistent with the generation of a mean entrainment velocity. The vorticity variance and epsilon display large maxima at the T/NT interface due to the inviscid discontinuities of the tangential velocity variances existing there, and these maxima are quantitatively related to the thickness delta of the viscous boundary layer (VBL). For an equilibrium VBL, the RDT analysis suggests that delta ~ eta (where eta is the Kolmogorov microscale), which is consistent with the scaling law identified in a very recent DNS study for shear-free T/NT interfaces.

A method to diagnose boundary-layer type using Doppler lidar

A new technique for objective classification of boundary layers is applied to ground-based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer data. The observed boundary layer has been classified into nine different types based on those in the Met Office ‘Lock’ scheme, using vertical velocity variance and skewness, along with attenuated backscatter coefficient and surface sensible heat flux. This new probabilistic method has been applied to three years of data from Chilbolton Observatory in southern England and a climatology of boundary-layer type has been created. A clear diurnal cycle is present in all seasons. The most common boundary-layer type is stable with no cloud (30.0% of the dataset). The most common unstable type is well mixed with no cloud (15.4%). Decoupled stratocumulus is the third most common boundary-layer type (10.3%) and cumulus under stratocumulus occurs 1.0% of the time. The occurrence of stable boundary-layer types is much higher in the winter than the summer and boundary-layer types capped with cumulus cloud are more prevalent in the warm seasons. The most common diurnal evolution of boundary-layer types, occurring on 52 days of our three-year dataset, is that of no cloud with the stability changing from stable to unstable during daylight hours. These results are based on 16393 hours, 62.4% of the three-year dataset, of diagnosed boundary-layer type. This new method is ideally suited to long-term evaluation of boundary-layer type parametrisations in weather forecast and climate models.

Ensemble transform Kalman-Bucy filters

Two recent works have adapted the Kalman–Bucy filter into an ensemble setting. In the first formulation, the ensemble of perturbations is updated by the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) in pseudo-time, while the mean is updated as in the standard Kalman filter. In the second formulation, the full ensemble is updated in the analysis step as the solution of single set of ODEs in pseudo-time. Neither requires matrix inversions except for the frequently diagonal observation error covariance. We analyse the behaviour of the ODEs involved in these formulations. We demonstrate that they stiffen for large magnitudes of the ratio of background error to observational error variance, and that using the integration scheme proposed in both formulations can lead to failure. A numerical integration scheme that is both stable and is not computationally expensive is proposed. We develop transform-based alternatives for these Bucy-type approaches so that the integrations are computed in ensemble space where the variables are weights (of dimension equal to the ensemble size) rather than model variables. Finally, the performance of our ensemble transform Kalman–Bucy implementations is evaluated using three models: the 3-variable Lorenz 1963 model, the 40-variable Lorenz 1996 model, and a medium complexity atmospheric general circulation model known as SPEEDY. The results from all three models are encouraging and warrant further exploration of these assimilation techniques.

Variation in rice cadmium related to human exposure.

Cereal grains are the dominant source of cadmium in the human diet, with rice being to the fore. Here we explore the effect of geographic, genetic, and processing (milling) factors on rice grain cadmium and rice consumption rates that lead to dietary variance in cadmium intake. From a survey of 12 countries on four continents, cadmium levels in rice grain were the highest in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with both these countries also having high per capita rice intakes. For Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, there was high weekly intake of cadmium from rice, leading to intakes deemed unsafe by international and national regulators. While genetic variance, and to a lesser extent milling, provide strategies for reducing cadmium in rice, caution has to be used, as there is environmental regulation as well as genetic regulation of cadmium accumulation within rice grains. For countries that import rice, grain cadmium can be controlled by where that rice is sourced, but for countries with subsistence rice economies that have high levels of cadmium in rice grain, agronomic and breeding strategies are required to lower grain cadmium.

Why children differ in motivation to learn: insights from 13,000 twins from 6 countries

Little is known about why people differ in their levels of academic motivation. This study explored the etiology of individual differences in enjoyment and self-perceived ability for several school subjects in nearly 13,000 twins aged 9 to 16 from 6 countries. The results showed a striking consistency across ages, school subjects, and cultures. Contrary to common belief, enjoyment of learning and children’s perceptions of their competence were no less heritable than cognitive ability. Genetic factors explained approximately 40% of the variance and all of the observed twins’ similarity in academic motivation. Shared environmental factors, such as home or classroom, did not contribute to the twin’s similarity in academic motivation. Environmental influences stemmed entirely from individual specific experiences.