Consumption smoothing in Latin America: an empirical assessment of present value models

The study aims to assess the empirical adherence of the permanent income theory and the consumption smoothing view in Latin America. Two present value models are considered, one describing household behavior and the other open economy macroeconomics. Following the methodology developed in Campbell and Schiller (1987), Bivariate Vector Autoregressions are estimated for the saving ratio and the real growth rate of income concerning the household behavior model and for the current account and the change in national cash ‡ow regarding the open economy model. The countries in the sample are considered separately in the estimation process (individual system estimation) as well as jointly (joint system estimation). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SURE) estimates of the coe¢cients are generated. Wald Tests are then conducted to verify if the VAR coe¢cient estimates are in conformity with those predicted by the theory. While the empirical results are sensitive to the estimation method and discount factors used, there is only weak evidence in favor of the permanent income theory and consumption smoothing view in the group of countries analyzed.

A note on policy, the composition of public expenditures and economic growth

In this article we study the growth and welfare effects of fiscal and monetary policies in economies where public investment is part of the productive process we present four different models that share the same technology with public infrastructure as a separate argument of the production function. We show that growth is maximized at positive levels of income tax and inflation. However, unless there are no transfers or public goods in the economy, maximization of growth does not imply welfare maximization we show that the optimal tax rate is greater than the rate that maximizes growth and the optimal rate of money creation is below the growth maximizing rate. With public infrastructure in the production function we no longer obtain superneutrality in the Sidrausky model.

Solving the non-convexity problem in some shopping-time and human-capital models

Several works in the shopping-time and in the human-capital literature, due to the nonconcavity of the underlying Hamiltonian, use Örst-order conditions in dynamic optimization to characterize necessity, but not su¢ ciency, in intertemporal problems. In this work I choose one paper in each one of these two areas and show that optimality can be characterized by means of a simple aplication of Arrowís (1968) su¢ ciency theorem.

Os dois métodos da teoria econômica

Economic theory deals with a complex reality, which may be seen through various perspectives, using different methods. Economics’ three major branches – development economics, macroeconomics, and microeconomics – cannot be unified because the former two use preferentially a historical-deductive, while the later, an essentially hypothetical-deductive or aprioristic method. Smith, Marx and Keynes used an essentially the method of the new historical facts, while Walras, an aprioristic one to devise the neoclassical general equilibrium model. The historical-deductive method looks for the new historical facts that condition the economic reality. Economic theory remains central, but it is more modest, or less general, as the economist that adopt principally this method is content to analyze stabilization and growth in the framework of a given historical phase or moment of the economic process. As a trade off, his models are more realistic and conducive to more effective economic policies, as long as he is not required to previously abandon, one by one, the unrealistic assumptions required by a excessively general theory, but already starts from more realistic ones

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank using our proposed procedure, relative to an unrestricted VAR or a cointegrated VAR estimated by the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration. Two empirical applications forecasting Brazilian inflation and U.S. macroeconomic aggregates growth rates respectively show the usefulness of the model-selection strategy proposed here. The gains in different measures of forecasting accuracy are substantial, especially for short horizons.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank using our proposed procedure, relative to an unrestricted VAR or a cointegrated VAR estimated by the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration. Two empirical applications forecasting Brazilian in ation and U.S. macroeconomic aggregates growth rates respectively show the usefulness of the model-selection strategy proposed here. The gains in di¤erent measures of forecasting accuracy are substantial, especially for short horizons.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

Implications of innovation for inclusive growth: a study of Medellín, Colombia's metro system and integral urban projects

Medellín, Colombia continues to attract global recognition for its evolution from a crimesaturated and desegregated city to an award-winning paragon of innovation. Two innovations in particular, the Metro System & the Integral Urban Projects, have fostered and contributed to Medellín’s inclusive growth, as indicated by a corresponding increase in both social and economic capital. Through a mixed methodology analysis of these two experiences, including participant observation, in-depth interviews with different industry leaders, and household surveys, this thesis explores the extent to which inclusive innovation has contributed to inclusive growth in Medellín. The surveys were distributed to three sensitive neighborhoods of Medellín and apply a Synthesized Framework for measuring inclusive growth, one that includes five indicators for social capital and five indicators for economic capital, emphasizing the importance of progression in both dimensions. By drawing on concepts of inclusivity surfacing more frequently in business lexicon and the emergence of a newly branded Medellín, the findings of this thesis indicates that the implementation of innovations in association with a unified city vision practiced by the local government, corporate and non-profit sector has contributed to achieving inclusive growth, and has left civilians hungry for more.

Human growth, biological maturation, motor performance and contextual factors in Madeira children

The central aims of this study were: (1) to construct age- and gender-specific percentiles for motor coordination (MC), (2) to analyze the change, stability, and prediction of MC, (3) to investigate the relationship between motor performance and body fatness, and (4) to evaluate the relationships between skeletal maturation and fundamental motor skills (FMS) and MC. The data collected was from the ‘Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study’ and from the ‘Madeira Child Growth Study’. In these studies, MC, FMS, skeletal age, growth characteristics, motor performance, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and geographical area were assessed/measured. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, mixed between-within subjects ANOVA, multilevel models, and hierarchical regression (blocks) were some of the statistical procedures used in the analyses. Scores on walking backwards and moving sideways improved with age. It was also found that boys performed better than girls on moving sideways. Normal-weight children outperformed obese peers in almost all gross MC tests. Inter-age correlations were calculated to be between 0.15 and 0.60. Age was associated with a better performance in catching, scramble, speed run, standing long jump, balance, and tennis ball throwing. Body mass index was positively associated with scramble and speed run, and negatively related to the standing long jump. Physical activity was negatively associated with scramble. Semi-urban children displayed better catching skills relative to their urban peers. The standardized residual of skeletal age on chronological age (SAsr) and its interaction with stature and/or body mass accounted for the maximum of 7.0% of variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se. SAsr alone accounted for a maximum of 9.0% variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se and interactions between SAsr and body size. This study demonstrates the need to promote FMS, MC, motor performance, and physical activity in children.

Association of an insulin-like growth factor 1 gene microsatellite with phenotypic variation and estimated breeding values of growth traits in Canchim cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Growth analysis of sweet pepper cultivated in coconut fiber in a greenhouse

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Models for genetic evaluation of Nelore cattle mature body weight

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic associations of sexual precocity with growth traits and visual scores of conformation, finishing, and muscling in Nelore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic associations between carcass traits measured by real-time ultrasound and scrotal circumference and growth traits in Nelore cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)