Revision rules in the theory of evidence

Combination rules proposed so far in the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, especially Dempster rule, rely on a basic assumption, that is, pieces of evidence being combined are considered to be on a par, i.e. play the same role. When a source of evidence is less reliable than another, it is possible to discount it and then a symmetric combination operation is still used. In the case of revision, the idea is to let prior knowledge of an agent be altered by some input information. The change problem is thus intrinsically asymmetric. Assuming the input information is reliable, it should be retained whilst the prior information should
be changed minimally to that effect. Although belief revision is already an important subfield of artificial intelligence, so far, it has been little addressed in evidence theory. In this paper, we define the notion of revision for the theory of evidence and propose several different revision rules, called the inner and outer
revisions, and a modified adaptive outer revision, which better corresponds to the idea of revision. Properties of these revision rules are also investigated.

Enabling Others in Social Work: Reflexivity and the Theory of Social Domains

This paper sets out a framework to structure reflexivity in social work practice. Based on the thinking of the sociologist, Derek Layder, it comprises five domains that impact on the individual and social life, namely: (i) psycho-biography – referring to a person’s unique experience throughout the life-course; (ii) situated activity – highlighting the impact of every day social interaction; (iii) social settings – addressing the role of organizations in social life; (iv) culture – covering the influence of attitudes, beliefs, tastes and ideas on symbolic meaning; and (v) politico-economy – alluding to the ramifications of political and economic forces on people’s lives. It is contended that power circulates throughout each domain as an enabling and constraining force. The paper then outlines a process for using the reflexive framework in ‘enabling’ activities such as practice learning, supervision, mentoring and coaching. By applying the framework in these contexts, it is argued that social workers can reflect critically on their role and develop emancipatory forms of practice.

An investigation into the factors influencing tooth brushing behaviour amongst school children living in Northern Ireland: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

Background: Northern Ireland has the worst oral health in the UK and its children have among the highest levels of tooth decay in Europe (DHSSPS, 2007).
Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing tooth brushing behaviour among Year 6 primary schoolchildren using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB).
Method: Seven semi-structured focus groups involving 56 children were conducted during which children were asked questions about the factors that influence whether or not they brush their teeth. Thematic analysis was used with the purpose of eliciting the belief-based measures for all the TPB constructs.
Results: The findings suggest that children are knowledgeable about their teeth and are aware of the importance of maintaining good oral health; although a number of barriers to consistent tooth brushing exist.
Discussion: The findings will be used to inform stage 2 of the research project; questionnaire development to identify the factors influencing young people’s motivations to improve their tooth brushing behaviour and to assess their relative importance.

Intentions Toward Physical Activity and Resting Behavior in Pregnant Women: Using the Theory of Planned Behavior Framework in a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are recommended to 1) perform daily moderate-intensity physical activity and 2) limit the amount of sedentary time. Many women do not meet these recommendations. Reduced physical activity and increased sedentary behavior may result from women actively intending to rest during pregnancy. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has been used to assess attitudes (e.g., positive/negative beliefs), subjective norms (e.g., perception of others' views), perceived behavioral control (PBC) (e.g., self-efficacy), and intention toward exercising while pregnant but has not been applied to aspects pertaining to resting during pregnancy.

METHODS: Pregnant women (n = 345) completed a cross-sectional questionnaire that included two TPB Questionnaires where the target behaviors were 1) being physically active and 2) resting. Bootstrapped paired t tests, ANOVA, and linear hierarchal regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of intentions and whether intentions toward the two behaviors varied at different stages of pregnancy.

RESULTS: As women progressed in their pregnancy, their attitude, PBC, and intention toward being physically active all significantly declined. A positive attitude, subjective norms, and intention toward resting all significantly increased with the advancing trimester. Self-reported health conditions predicted lower intention for physical activity but not for resting.

DISCUSSION: The significantly inverse relationship between physical activity and resting across time suggests that women feel they should focus on one behavior at the expense of the other. Finding that women generally do not perceive these behaviors as mutually compatible has implications in strategizing as to how to encourage women to be active during pregnancy.

The Riemann-Hilbert method applied to the theory of orthogonal polynomials

Doutoramento em Matemática

Contributions to the theory of maximum entropy estimation for ill-posed models

As técnicas estatísticas são fundamentais em ciência e a análise de regressão linear é, quiçá, uma das metodologias mais usadas. É bem conhecido da literatura que, sob determinadas condições, a regressão linear é uma ferramenta estatística poderosíssima. Infelizmente, na prática, algumas dessas condições raramente são satisfeitas e os modelos de regressão tornam-se mal-postos, inviabilizando, assim, a aplicação dos tradicionais métodos de estimação. Este trabalho apresenta algumas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, em particular na estimação de modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. A investigação é desenvolvida em três vertentes, nomeadamente na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, na estimação do parâmetro ridge em regressão ridge e, por último, em novos desenvolvimentos na estimação com máxima entropia. Na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, o trabalho desenvolvido evidencia um melhor desempenho dos estimadores de máxima entropia em relação ao estimador de máxima verosimilhança. Este bom desempenho é notório em modelos com poucas observações por estado e em modelos com um grande número de estados, os quais são comummente afetados por colinearidade. Espera-se que a utilização de estimadores de máxima entropia contribua para o tão desejado aumento de trabalho empírico com estas fronteiras de produção. Em regressão ridge o maior desafio é a estimação do parâmetro ridge. Embora existam inúmeros procedimentos disponíveis na literatura, a verdade é que não existe nenhum que supere todos os outros. Neste trabalho é proposto um novo estimador do parâmetro ridge, que combina a análise do traço ridge e a estimação com máxima entropia. Os resultados obtidos nos estudos de simulação sugerem que este novo estimador é um dos melhores procedimentos existentes na literatura para a estimação do parâmetro ridge. O estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven é baseado no método dos mínimos quadrados, na entropia de Shannon e em conceitos da eletrodinâmica quântica. Este estimador suplanta a principal crítica apontada ao estimador de máxima entropia generalizada, uma vez que prescinde dos suportes para os parâmetros e erros do modelo de regressão. Neste trabalho são apresentadas novas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, tendo por base o estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven, a teoria da informação e a regressão robusta. Os estimadores desenvolvidos revelam um bom desempenho em modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. Por último, são apresentados alguns códigos computacionais para estimação com máxima entropia, contribuindo, deste modo, para um aumento dos escassos recursos computacionais atualmente disponíveis.

A Influência da personalidade e da sintomatologia na Theory of Mind

Dissertação de mestrado, Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

The Impact of Thought Speed and Variability on Psychological State and Threat Perception: Further Exploration of the Theory of Mental Motion

Thought speed and variability are purportedly common features of specific psychological states, such as mania and anxiety. The present study explored the independent and combinational influence of these variables upon condition-specific symptoms and affective state, as proposed by Pronin and Jacobs’ (Perspect Psychol Sci, 3:461–485, 2008) theory of mental motion. A general population sample was recruited online (N = 263). Participants completed a thought speed and variability manipulation task, inducing a combination of fast/slow and varied/repetitive thought. Change in mania and anxiety symptoms was assessed through direct self-reported symptom levels and indirect, processing bias assessment (threat interpretation). Results indicated that fast and varied thought independently increased self-reported mania symptoms. Affect was significantly less positive and more negative during slow thought. No change in anxiety symptoms or threat interpretation was found between manipulation conditions. No evidence for the proposed combinational influence of speed and variability was found. Implications and avenues for therapeutic intervention are discussed.

The brain-sex theory of occupational choice: a counterexample

The brain-sex theory of occupational choice suggests that males and females in male-typical careers show a male pattern of cognitive ability in terms of better spatial than verbal performance on cognitive tests with the reverse pattern for females and males in female-typical careers, These differences are thought to result from patterns of cerebral functional lateralisation. This study Sought Such occupationally related effects using synonym generation (verbal ability) and mental rotation (spatial ability) tasks used previously. It also used entrants to these careers as participants to examine whether patterns of cognitive abilities might predate explicit training and practice. Using a population of entrants to sex-differentiated University Courses, a moderate occupational effect on the synonym generation task was found, along with a weak (p<.10) sex effect on the mental rotation task. Highest performance on the mental rotation task was by female Students in fashion design, a female-dominated occupation which makes substantial visuospatial demands and attracts many students with literacy problems such as dyslexia. This group then appears to be a counterexample to the brain-sex theory. However, methodological issues Surrounding previous Studies are highlighted: the simple synonym task appears to show limited discrimination of the sexes, leading to questions concerning the legitimacy of inferences about lateralisation based on scores from that test. Moreover, the human figure-based mental rotation task appears to tap the wrong aspect of visuospatial skill, likely to be needed for male-typical courses such as engineering, Since the fashion-clesign career is also one that attracts disproportionately many male students whose sexual orientation is homosexual, data were examined for evidence of female-typical patterns of cognitive performance among that subgroup. This was not found. This study therefore provides Do evidence for the claim that female-pattern cerebral functional lateralisation is likely in gay males.