The behavior of temporary sales in a macroeconomic context

Nós investigamos promoções temporárias usando uma base de dados detalhada de 13 anos sobre preços ao consumidor no Brasil, com cotações de preços coletadas decendialmente. Nós encontramos forte evidências da existência de relação entre a frequência e tamanho de promoções e as variáveis macroeconômicas. A crença comum na literatura de que promoções não reagem a mudanças nas variáveis macroeconômicas pode ser devido a baixa volatilidade do cenário macro- econômico nos países analisados até o presente momento.

The effects of tax incentives for small firms on employment levels

This paper will examine the effects of tax incentives for small businesses on employment level evaluating a program with this purpose implemented in Brazil in the 1990s. We first develop a theoretical framework which guides both the de nition of the parameters of interest and their identi cation. Selection problems both into the treatment group and into the data sample are tackled by combining fixed effects methods and regression discontinuity design on alternative sub-samples of a longitudinal database of manufacturing firms. The results show that on the one hand the size composition of the treated fi rms may be changed due to the survival of some smaller firms that would have exited had it not been eligible to the program. On the other hand, the treated firms who do not depend on the program to survive do employ more workers.

The effects of adult literacy on earnings and employment

This paper provides evidence of the effects of adult literacy on individuals’ income and employability in Brazil based on information obtained from the monthly employment survey (PME). The OLS results indicate that after controlling for observable characteristics, there is a 21.25% increase in wages for individuals who become literate; however, there is no significant impact on employability. Moreover, the findings show an 8.1% increase in the probability of being employed in the formal sector. We also explore the longitudinal structure of the dataset to control for unobservable fixed characteristics of individuals. The fixed-effects estimators show smaller effects compared to the OLS estimators. We find that literacy has a 4.4% effect on wages and a 4.3% impact on the probability of being formally employed. The effects are significantly different from zero.

The effects of small firm tax incentives on employment levels

This paper aims to evaluate the impact on employment growth of a tax incentive program targeting Brazilian manufacturing small businesses (SIMPLES). This evaluation is conducted for two distinct periods: for the year 1997, when the program was first implemented, and for the year 1999, when the eligibility rule was modified to allow the eligibility of a broader group of firms. The evaluation takes into account two distinct channels through which the charted effects operate. The first is the employment variation in the firms that became eligible for the incentives, and the second is the change in the survival probability experienced by the same group of firms. Moreover, each of these channels can be activated either by the tax reduction dimension of the program or by its dimension of red tape simplification. Our results identify positive effects on employment growth for the tax incentive program only in the dimension of red tape simplification and its effects on the 1997 sample.

The effects of openness on industrial employment in Brazil

Este artigo tem dois objetivos principais. Primeiramente, apresentamos as pnnClpms evidências de que a baixa qualidade do emprego é o maior problema do mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Mostra-se que o país tem absorvido um crescimento da oferta de trabalho significativo ao longo dos últimos anos sem registrar um aumento da taxa de desemprego. No entanto, os postos de trabalho no Brasil são, em média, extremamente precários. Em grande medida, a precariedade do emprego no Brasil está relacionada à alta rotatividade da mão-de-obra, que desincentiva o investimento em treinamento, impedindo o crescimento da produtivid::;de do trabalho. De acordo com os indicadores passíveis de comparação internacional, o Brasil apresenta uma das maiores taxas de rotatividade do mundo. Em segundo lugar, estuda-se a evolução recente do emprego industrial, uma vez que o setor industrial está tradicionalmente associado à geração de bons empregos no Brasil. Mostra-se que o nível de emprego industrial tem se reduzido de forma praticamente contínua desde o início desta década. A estimação de um modelo de ajustamento parcial do emprego nos permite explicar este fenômeno. Mudanças estruturais significativas na elasticidade custo salarial do emprego e no coeficiente de tendência são detectadas a partir do início da década de 90. Um simples modelo teórico é usado de forma a interpretar estas mudanças estruturais como a resposta ótima das empresas industriais ao ambiente de maior competição externa, devido à abertura comercial. Isto, junto com o uso crescente de tecnologias poupadoras de mão-de-obra, são suficientes para explicar a brutal queda do emprego industrial no Brasil ao longo dos últimos seis anos.

The effects of the minimum wage on earnings and employment in Brazil

This paper analyzes the effects of the mlmmum wage on both, eammgs and employment, using a Brazilian rotating panel data (Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego - PME) which has a similar design to the US Current Population Survey (CPS). First an intuitive description of the data is done by graphical analysis. In particular, Kemel densities are used to show that an increase in the minimum wage compresses the eamings distribution. This graphical analysis is then forrnalized by descriptive models. This is followed by a discussion on identification and endogeneity that leads to the respecification of the model. Second, models for employment are estimated, using an interesting decomposition that makes it possible to separate out the effects of an increase in the minimum wage on number of hours and on posts of jobs. The main result is that an increase in the minimum wage was found to compress the eamings distribution, with a moderately small effect on the leveI of employment, contributing to alleviate inequality.

Temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs under asset market segmentation

This paper analyses the welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. Differently than previous papers, however, here we assume that only a fraction of households participates in asset market transactions. With this asset market segmentation assumption, the effects of temporary programs on welfare may change drastically. Households with access to the bonds market are able to protect themselves better from the changes in the inflation rate – although at the cost of a distortion in their consumption path. As a consequence, they may decrease their inflation tax burden – which would increase for the other group of households. By the other side, when these agents that lack the access to the asset markets are credit constrained, they may welcome the program, since the government Is temporally reducing the inflation tax they have to pay. The temporary program could end up benefiting both groups, what could help to understand their popularity.

How to manage macroeconomic policies to foster growth and employment and prevent financial and external crises

My presentation focuses on the implementation of a macroeconomic policy regime which, I believe, is capable of simultaneously attaining several targets, including the promotion of growth and employment and the prevention of external and financial crises.

Intravaginal progesterone device and/or temporary weaning on reproductive performance of anestrous crossbred Angus x Nelore cows

The objective of this experiment was to evaluate effects of treatments with intravaginal progesterone (N) device and/or 48 h temporary weaning (TW) on reproductive performance of postpartum anestrous crossbred Angus x Nelore cows, throughout the breeding season (BS). Anestrous cows (n = 296; 53 5 DPP, body condition score between 2.5 and 3.5, on a 1-5 scale) were assigned randomly to four treatments (2 x 2 factorial design): (1) Control Group (no treatment; n = 73); (2) TW Group (48 h TW beginning on day 0 of BS; n = 70); (3) P4 Group (Intravaginal P4 device between days -7 and 0 of BS; n = 73); and (4) P4+TW Group (Intravaginal P4 device between days -7 and 0 of BS followed by 48h TW; n=70). on day 0 of BS (when P4 devices were removed and TW was initiated), cows had their ovaries evaluated by ultrasonography aiming to evaluate size of the largest follicle. Signs of behavioral estrus were observed twice a day (morning and evening), between days 0 and 25 of BS, and cows observed in estrus were inseminated 12 h later. Between days 26 and 80 of BS, cows were submitted to natural service. Pregnancy diagnosis was conducted by transrectal ultrasonography on days 32 and 53 (pregnancies by AI) and 114 (pregnancies by natural service). Rates of detection of estrus during the first 3 days and within 25 days of BS were greater in cows receiving TW (45.0% compared with 9.6% and 50.0% compared with 29.5%, respectively; P < 0.01). Conception rate in cows inseminated in the first 3 days of BS was greater in cows treated with P4 (54.8% compared with 11.1 %; P < 0.01). Combining P4+TW increased pregnancy rate in the first 3 days (Control: 1.4%, TW: 4.3%, P4: 8.2% and P4+TW: 24.3%; P < 0.01) and in 25 days of BS (Control: 10.9%, TW: 7.1%, P4: 13.7% and P4+TW: 28.6%; P < 0.05). Pregnancy rate at the end of BS did not differ among treatment groups. In conclusion, TW alone increased estrous behavior whereas P4 alone benefited conception. Combining P4 with TW improved pregnancy rate with direct benefits to behavioral estrus and conception. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of temporary cements on the shear bond strength of luting cements

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate, by shear bond strength (SBS) testing, the influence of different types of temporary cements on the final cementation using conventional and self-etching resin-based luting cements. Material and Methods: Forty human teeth divided in two halves were assigned to 8 groups (n=10): I and V (no temporary cementation); II and VI: Ca(OH)(2)-based cement; III and VII: zinc oxide (ZO)based cement; IV and VIII: ZO-eugenol (ZOE)-based cement. Final cementation was done with RelyX ARC cement (groups I to IV) and RelyX Unicem cement (groups V to VIII). Data were analyzed statistically by ANOVA and Tukey's test at 5% significance level. Results: Means were (MPa): I - 3.80 (+/- 1.481); II - 5.24 (+/- 2.297); III - 6.98 (+/- 1.885); IV - 6.54 (+/- 1.459); V - 5.22 (+/- 2.465); VI - 4.48 (+/- 1.705); VII - 6.29 (+/- 2.280); VIII - 2.47 (+/- 2.076). Comparison of the groups that had the same temporary cementation (Groups II and VI; III and VII; IV and VIII) showed statistically significant difference (p<0.001) only between Groups IV and VIII, in which ZOE-based cements were used. The use of either Ca(OH) 2 based (Groups II and VI) or ZO-based (Groups III and VII) cements showed no statistically significant difference (p>0.05) for the different luting cements (RelyX (TM) ARC and RelyX (TM) Unicem). The groups that had no temporary cementation (Groups I and V) did not differ significantly from each other either (p>0.05). Conclusion: When temporary cementation was done with ZO- or ZOE-based cements and final cementation was done with RelyX ARC, there was an increase in the SBS compared to the control. In the groups cemented with RelyX Unicem, however, the use of a ZOE-based temporary cement affected negatively the SBS of the luting agent used for final cementation.

Temporary fragmentation of a marginal lake and its effects on zooplankton community structure and organization

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)