Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling: Final report. [Digital Supplements A-G attached]

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.

Movements, behavior, and habitat selection of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, ascertained through archival tags

Ninety-six bigeye tuna (88– 134 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival (electronic data storage) tags near fish-aggregating devices (FADs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) during April 2000. Twenty-nine fish were recaptured, and the data from twenty-seven tags were successfully downloaded and processed. Time at liberty ranged from 8 to 446 days, and data for 23 fish at liberty for 30 days or more are presented. The accuracy in geolocation estimates, derived from the light level data, is about 2 degrees in latitude and 0.5 degrees in longitude in this region. The movement paths derived from the filtered geolocation estimates indicated that none of the fish traveled west of 110°W during the period between release and recapture. The null hypothesis that the movement path is random was rejected in 17 of the 22 statistical tests of the observed movement paths. The estimated mean velocity was 117 km/d. The fish exhibited occasional deep-diving behavior, and some dives exceeded 1000 m where temperatures were less than 3°C. Evaluations of timed depth records, resulted in the discrimination of three distinct behaviors: 54.3% of all days were classified as unassociated (with a floating object) type-1 behavior, 27.7% as unassociated type-2 behavior, and 18.7% as behavior associated with a floating object. The mean residence time at floating objects was 3.1 d. Data sets separated into day and night were used to evaluate diel differences in behavior and habitat selection. When the fish were exhibiting unassociated type-1 behavior (diel vertical migrations), they were mostly at depths of less than 50 m (within the mixed layer) throughout the night, and during the day between 200 and 300 m and 13° and 14°C. They shifted their average depths in conjunction with dawn and dusk events, presumably tracking the deep-scattering layer as a foraging strategy. There were also observed changes in the average nighttime depth distributions of the fish in relation to moon phase.