End point of Hawking radiation

The formation and semiclassical evaporation of two-dimensional black holes is studied in an exactly solvable model. Above a certain threshold energy flux, collapsing matter forms a singularity inside an apparent horizon. As the black hole evaporates the apparent horizon recedes and meets the singularity in a finite proper time. The singularity emerges naked, and future evolution of the geometry requires boundary conditions to be imposed there. There is a natural choice of boundary conditions which matches the evaporated black hole solution onto the linear dilaton vacuum. Below the threshold energy flux no horizon forms and boundary conditions can be imposed where infalling matter is reflected from a timelike boundary. All information is recovered at spatial infinity in this case.

Supergravity models of (3+1)-dimensional QCD

The most general black M5-brane solution of eleven-dimensional supergravity (with a flat R4 spacetime in the brane and a regular horizon) is characterized by charge, mass and two angular momenta. We use this metric to construct general dual models of large-N QCD (at strong coupling) that depend on two free parameters. The mass spectrum of scalar particles is determined analytically (in the WKB approximation) and numerically in the whole two-dimensional parameter space. We compare the mass spectrum with analogous results from lattice calculations, and find that the supergravity predictions are close to the lattice results everywhere on the two dimensional parameter space except along a special line. We also examine the mass spectrum of the supergravity Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes and find that the KK modes along the compact D-brane coordinate decouple from the spectrum for large angular momenta. There are however KK modes charged under a U(1)×U(1) global symmetry which do not decouple anywhere on the parameter space. General formulas for the string tension and action are also given.

Black holes by analytic continuation

In the context of a two-dimensional exactly solvable model, the dynamics of quantum black holes is obtained by analytically continuing the description of the regime where no black hole is formed. The resulting spectrum of outgoing radiation departs from the one predicted by the Hawking model in the region where the outgoing modes arise from the horizon with Planck-order frequencies. This occurs early in the evaporation process, and the resulting physical picture is unconventional. The theory predicts that black holes will only radiate out an energy of Planck mass order, stabilizing after a transitory period. The continuation from a regime without black hole formationaccessible in the 1+1 gravity theory consideredis implicit in an S-matrix approach and suggests in this way a possible solution to the problem of information loss.

Model of black hole evolution

We investigate a model where the quantum dynamics of black hole evaporation is determined by imposing a boundary on the apparent horizon with suitable boundary conditions. An unconventional scenario for the evolution emerges: only an insignificant fraction of energy of order (mG)-1 is radiated out; the outgoing wave carries a very small part of the quantum-mechanical information of the collapsed body, the bulk of the information remaining in the final stable black hole geometry.

Quantum black holes: Nonperturbative corrections and no-veil scenario

A common belief is that further quantum corrections near the singularity of a large black hole should not substantially modify the semiclassical picture of black hole evaporation; in particular, the outgoing spectrum of radiation should be very close to the thermal spectrum predicted by Hawking. In this paper we explore a possible counterexample: in the context of dilaton gravity, we find that nonperturbative quantum corrections which are important in strong-coupling regions may completely alter the semiclassical picture, to the extent that the presumptive spacelike boundary becomes timelike, changing in this way the causal structure of the semiclassical geometry. As a result, only a small fraction of the total energy is radiated outside the fake event horizon; most of the energy comes in fact at later retarded times and there is no problem of information loss. This may constitute a general characteristic of quantum black holes, that is, quantum gravity might be such as to prevent the formation of global event horizons.

Holographic isotropization linearized

The holographic isotropization of a highly anisotropic, homogeneous, strongly coupled, non-Abelian plasma was simplified in ref. [1] by linearizing Einstein"s equations around the final, equilibrium state. This approximation reproduces the expectation value of the boundary stress tensor with a 20% accuracy. Here we elaborate on these results and extend them to observables that are directly sensitive to the bulk interior, focusing for simplicity on the entropy production on the event horizon. We also consider next-to-leading-order corrections and show that the leading terms alone provide a better description of the isotropization process for the states that are furthest from equilibrium.

Consumption, investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza l'efecte que comporta l'introducció de preferències inconsistents temporalment sobre les decisions òptimes de consum, inversió i compra d'assegurança de vida. En concret, es pretén recollir la creixent importància que un individu dóna a la herència que deixa i a la riquesa disponible per a la seva jubilació al llarg de la seva vida laboral. Amb aquesta finalitat, es parteix d'un model estocàstic en temps continu amb temps final aleatori, i s'introdueix el descompte heterogeni, considerant un agent amb una distribució de vida residual coneguda. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es resol una equació de programació dinàmica no estàndard. Per al cas de funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA es troben solucions explícites. Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'il·lustren numèricament.

Consumption, investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza l'efecte que comporta l'introducció de preferències inconsistents temporalment sobre les decisions òptimes de consum, inversió i compra d'assegurança de vida. En concret, es pretén recollir la creixent importància que un individu dóna a la herència que deixa i a la riquesa disponible per a la seva jubilació al llarg de la seva vida laboral. Amb aquesta finalitat, es parteix d'un model estocàstic en temps continu amb temps final aleatori, i s'introdueix el descompte heterogeni, considerant un agent amb una distribució de vida residual coneguda. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es resol una equació de programació dinàmica no estàndard. Per al cas de funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA es troben solucions explícites. Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'il·lustren numèricament.

Quelles questions émergentes pour les politiques publiques de biodiversité en France métropolitaine? Résultats et perspectives

Dans un contexte en constante évolution, l'élaboration, la mise en oeuvre et l'évaluation des politiques publiques de biodiversité nécessitent d'anticiper les changements futurs possibles afin de pouvoir se préparer à temps. Or les informations concernant ces changements sont nombreuses et les enjeux qui pourraient s'avérer importants à l'avenir sont souvent peu visibles. Pour répondre à ce défi, une expertise multi-acteurs et multidisciplinaire s'inspirant des démarches d'horizon scanning et intitulée BioPIQue 2013 a permis d'identifier 25 questions émergentes, dont 10 questions stratégiques, pour les politiques publiques de biodiversité en France métropolitaine d'ici à 2020. Ces questions émergentes sont autant d'opportunités et de risques que l'ensemble es acteurs qui souhaitent avancer vers une plus grande prise en compte des enjeux de biodiversité peuvent saisir.

Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Epilepsy priorities in Europe: A report of the ILAE-IBE Epilepsy Advocacy Europe Task Force.

The European Forum on Epilepsy Research (ERF2013), which took place in Dublin, Ireland, on May 26-29, 2013, was designed to appraise epilepsy research priorities in Europe through consultation with clinical and basic scientists as well as representatives of lay organizations and health care providers. The ultimate goal was to provide a platform to improve the lives of persons with epilepsy by influencing the political agenda of the EU. The Forum highlighted the epidemiologic, medical, and social importance of epilepsy in Europe, and addressed three separate but closely related concepts. First, possibilities were explored as to how the stigma and social burden associated with epilepsy could be reduced through targeted initiatives at EU national and regional levels. Second, ways to ensure optimal standards of care throughout Europe were specifically discussed. Finally, a need for further funding in epilepsy research within the European Horizon 2020 funding programme was communicated to politicians and policymakers participating to the forum. Research topics discussed specifically included (1) epilepsy in the developing brain; (2) novel targets for innovative diagnostics and treatment of epilepsy; (3) what is required for prevention and cure of epilepsy; and (4) epilepsy and comorbidities, with a special focus on aging and mental health. This report provides a summary of recommendations that emerged at ERF2013 about how to (1) strengthen epilepsy research, (2) reduce the treatment gap, and (3) reduce the burden and stigma associated with epilepsy. Half of the 6 million European citizens with epilepsy feel stigmatized and experience social exclusion, stressing the need for funding trans-European awareness campaigns and monitoring their impact on stigma, in line with the global commitment of the European Commission and with the recommendations made in the 2011 Written Declaration on Epilepsy. Epilepsy care has high rates of misdiagnosis and considerable variability in organization and quality across European countries, translating into huge societal cost (0.2% GDP) and stressing the need for cost-effective programs of harmonization and optimization of epilepsy care throughout Europe. There is currently no cure or prevention for epilepsy, and 30% of affected persons are not controlled by current treatments, stressing the need for pursuing research efforts in the field within Horizon 2020. Priorities should include (1) development of innovative biomarkers and therapeutic targets and strategies, from gene and cell-based therapies to technologically advanced surgical treatment; (2) addressing issues raised by pediatric and aging populations, as well as by specific etiologies and comorbidities such as traumatic brain injury (TBI) and cognitive dysfunction, toward more personalized medicine and prevention; and (3) translational studies and clinical trials built upon well-established European consortia.

La contribution bolivienne à la COP 21 au prisme de la justice environnementale

La contribution présentée lors de la Conférence sur le climat (COP 21) en décembre 2015 à Paris par les représentants boliviens a joui d'un certain écho médiatique. Elle entendait proposer des pistes d'action à double dividende, permettant à la fois d'aboutir à une gouvernance climatique plus « juste » et de construire un nouvel « horizon de civilisation » rompant avec le modèle de développement consumériste, extractiviste et capitaliste. Cet article a pour objectif de questionner, au prisme des différentes dimensions de la justice actuellement mobilisées (redistribution, reconnaissance et participation), les notions de justice sur lesquelles se fonde la contribution bolivienne, en différenciant deux niveaux: celui du discours et celui des outils proposés. Nous montrons qu'en privilégiant une conception redistributive de la justice, la contribution bolivienne tend paradoxalement in fine à ne pas pouvoir dépasser le « modèle de civilisation » et de développement qu'elle dénonçait.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with NYHA I and NYHA II heart failure in Spain

Objectives: The aim of the study was to combine clinical results from the European Cohort of the REVERSE study and costs associated with the addition of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with mild symptomatic (NYHA I-II) or asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and markers of cardiac dyssynchrony in Spain. Methods: A Markov model was developed with CRT + OMT (CRT-ON) versus OMT only (CRT-OFF) based on a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Raw data was derived from literature and expert opinion, reflecting clinical and economic consequences of patient"s management in Spain. Time horizon was 10 years. Both costs (euro 2010) and effects were discounted at 3 percent per annum. Results: CRT-ON showed higher total costs than CRT-OFF; however, CRT reduced the length of hospitalization in ICU by 94 percent (0.006 versus 0.091 days) and general ward in by 34 percent (0.705 versus 1.076 days). Surviving CRT-ON patients (88.2 percent versus 77.5 percent) remained in better functional class longer, and they achieved an improvement of 0.9 life years (LYGs) and 0.77 years quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). CRT-ON proved to be cost-effective after 6 years, except for the 7th year due to battery depletion. At 10 years, the results were 18,431 per LYG and 21,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed CRT-ON was cost-effective in 75.4 percent of the cases at 10 years. Conclusions: The use of CRT added to OMT represents an efficient use of resources in patients suffering from heart failure in NYHA functional classes I and II.

Montrer « l'exorcisme » de Sarah Palin sur le web : enquête(s) sur la portée politique d'images religieuses

En septembre 2008, une vidéo est diffusée sur internet montrant Sarah Palin, alors candidate à la vice-présidence des États-Unis, en train de recevoir « une protection contre la sorcellerie » lors d'une célébration religieuse. La séquence est aussitôt reprise par les médias du monde entier qui s'interrogent et enquêtent sur les rapports entre ces images et l'engagement politique de la républicaine. Cet article suit la circulation de la vidéo au travers de différentes scènes de visibilité, allant des médias généralistes au site internet de l'Église où elle a été tournée, en passant par un blog qui a attiré l'attention publique sur ces images. L'enquête met au jour comment ce film a été compris dans ces différents contextes, et montre les effets de ce travail d'interprétation en 2011, suite à l'avènement du Tea Party et à l'horizon de la prochaine échéance présidentielle. La vidéo qui, en 2008, apparaissait dans les médias généralistes comme une illustration de la « bigoterie » de Palin a contribué à figurer, en 2011, une menace « théocratique » pour la démocratie américaine.

La politique suisse de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre : une analyse de la mise en oeuvre = Die Politik der Schweiz zur Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen : eine Vollzugsanalyse

Afin de se préparer à la seconde période de mise en oeuvre du protocole de Kyoto (2013-2020), la Confédération a mené une révision totale de la loi fédérale sur la réduction des émissions de CO2, entrée en vigueur au 1er janvier 2013. La Confédération a ainsi renforcé ses objectifs en matière de lutte contre le changement climatique et a introduit de nouveaux instruments d'intervention pour y parvenir. Depuis lors, la nécessité politique de réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre s'est encore accentuée. Lors de la COP21 en décembre 2015 à Paris, la Suisse s'est engagée à réduire ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 50 % par rapport à 1990 à l'horizon 2030. En outre, la stratégie énergétique 2050 ambitionne de ramener les émissions de CO2 par habitant dans une fourchette de 1 à 1,5 tonne d'ici à 2050, contre 5,3 tonnes par habitant à l'heure actuelle. Cette recherche mandatée par l'OFEV analyse l'impact de la politique climatique sur le comportement des acteurs économiques et leurs réactions face aux instruments publics introduits pour réduire les émissions de CO2. L'étude, réalisée au cours de l'année 2015, questionne la cohérence du dispositif institutionnel actuel ainsi que sa capacité à stimuler l'action des acteurs économiques en matière de réduction des émissions de CO2. Elle livre un diagnostic de l'efficacité, de l'effectivité et de la désirabilité de la politique publique menée par la Confédération.