First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Gene expression profiling of human glioblastomas for the identification of predictive factors and characterisation of molecular mechanism implicated in response to therapy and outcome

ABSTRACT Poor outcome for glioblastoma patients is largely due to resistance to chemoradiation therapy. While epigenetic inactivation of MGMT mediated DNA repair is highly predictive for benefit from the alkylating agent therapy Temozolomide, additional mechanisms for resistance associated with molecular alterations exist. Furthermore, new concepts in cancer suggest that resistance to treatment may be linked to cancer stem cells that escape therapy and act as source for tumour recurrence. We determined gene expression signatures associated with outcome in glioblastoma patients enrolled in a phase II and phase III clinical trial establishing the new combination therapy of radiation plus concomitant and adjuvant Temozolomide. Correlating stable gene clusters emerging from unsupervised analysis with survival of 42 treated patients identified a number of biological processes associated with outcome. Most prominent, a gene cluster dominated by HOX genes and comprising PROM1, was associated with resistance. PROM1 encodes CD133, a marker for a subpopulation of tumour cells enriched for glioblastoma stem- like cells. The core of this correlated HOX cluster was comprised in the top genes of a "self-renewal signature" defined in a mouse model for MLL-AF9 initiated leukaemia. The association of the HOX gene cluster with tumour resistance was confirmed in two external data sets of 146 malignant glioma As additional resistance factors we identified over-expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor gene, EGFR, while increased gene expression related to biological features of tumour host interaction, including markers for tumour vascular and cell adhesion, and innate immune response, were associated with better outcome. The "self-renewal" signature associated with resistance to the new combination chemoradiation therapy provides first clinical evidence that glioma stem like cells may implicated in resistance in a uniformly treated cohort of glioblastoma patients. This study underlines the need to target the tumour stem cell compartment, and provides some testable hypothesis for biological mechanisms relevant for malignant behaviour of glioblastoma that may be targeted in new treatment approaches. Résumé Le glioblastome, tumeur cérébrale primaire maligne la plus fréquente, est connue pour son mauvais pronostique. Des avancées chimiothérapeutiques récentes avec des agents alkylants comme le témozolomide (TMZ), ont permis une amélioration notable dans la survie de certains patients. Les bénéficiaires ont la caractéristique commune de présenter une particularité génétique, la methylation du MGMT (methylguanine methyltransferase). Néanmoins, d'autres mécanismes de résistance en fonction des aberrations moléculaires existent. Nous avons établi les profils d'expressions génétiques des patients traités par irradiation et TMZ dans des études cliniques de phase II et III. En combinant des méthodes non-supervisées et supervisées, de l'étude de la cohorte des patients traités nous avons découvert des groupes de gènes associés à la survie. Un ensemble de gènes contenant les gènes Hox semble lié au mécanisme de résistance au traitement. Récemment, les gènes Hox ont été décrits comme faisant partie d"une signature d'autorenouvellement (self-renewal) des cellules souches cancéreuses de la leucémie. L'autorenouvellement est un processus grâce auquel les cellules souches se maintiennent tout au long de la vie. Cette association à la résistance est confirmée dans deux autres études indépendantes. Un autre facteur de résistance au traitement est la surexpression du gène EGFR. D'autre part, deux groupes de gènes associés à la relation entre hôte-tumeur tels que les marqueurs des vaisseaux tumoraux et de la réponse immunitaire innée s'avèrent avoir un effet positif sur la survie des patients traités. La découverte de la signature d'autorenouvellement comme facteur de résistance à la nouvelle chimio-radiothérapie offre une preuve clinique que les cellules souches cancéreuses sont impliquées dans la résistance au traitement. If est donc logique de penser que le traitement ciblé contre des cellules souches cancéreuses va dans l'avenir permettre des thérapies anticancéreuses plus performantes.

The algebraic equality of two asymptotic tests for the hypothesis that a normal distribution has a specified correlation matrix

It is proved the algebraic equality between Jennrich's (1970) asymptotic$X^2$ test for equality of correlation matrices, and a Wald test statisticderived from Neudecker and Wesselman's (1990) expression of theasymptoticvariance matrix of the sample correlation matrix.

Source inference of exogenous gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) administered to humans by means of carbon isotopic ratio analysis: novel perspectives regarding forensic investigation and intelligence issues.

γ-Hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) is an endogenous short-chain fatty acid popular as a recreational drug due to sedative and euphoric effects, but also often implicated in drug-facilitated sexual assaults owing to disinhibition and amnesic properties. Whilst discrimination between endogenous and exogenous GHB as required in intoxication cases may be achieved by the determination of the carbon isotope content, such information has not yet been exploited to answer source inference questions of forensic investigation and intelligence interests. However, potential isotopic fractionation effects occurring through the whole metabolism of GHB may be a major concern in this regard. Thus, urine specimens from six healthy male volunteers who ingested prescription GHB sodium salt, marketed as Xyrem(®), were analysed by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry to assess this particular topic. A very narrow range of δ(13)C values, spreading from -24.810/00 to -25.060/00, was observed, whilst mean δ(13)C value of Xyrem(®) corresponded to -24.990/00. Since urine samples and prescription drug could not be distinguished by means of statistical analysis, carbon isotopic effects and subsequent influence on δ(13)C values through GHB metabolism as a whole could be ruled out. Thus, a link between GHB as a raw matrix and found in a biological fluid may be established, bringing relevant information regarding source inference evaluation. Therefore, this study supports a diversified scope of exploitation for stable isotopes characterized in biological matrices from investigations on intoxication cases to drug intelligence programmes.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Some hypothesis tests for the covariance matrix when the dimension is large compared to the sample size

This paper analyzes whether standard covariance matrix tests work whendimensionality is large, and in particular larger than sample size. Inthe latter case, the singularity of the sample covariance matrix makeslikelihood ratio tests degenerate, but other tests based on quadraticforms of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues remain well-defined. Westudy the consistency property and limiting distribution of these testsas dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, with theirratio converging to a finite non-zero limit. We find that the existingtest for sphericity is robust against high dimensionality, but not thetest for equality of the covariance matrix to a given matrix. For thelatter test, we develop a new correction to the existing test statisticthat makes it robust against high dimensionality.

Exact and approximate stepdown methods for multiple hypothesis testing

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.

Occurrence of Hymenoptera on Sus scrofa carcasses during summer and winter seasons in southeastern Brazil

Considerable importance has been given to nest construction and larval food transport to the nest as a precondition for the eusociality of insects. Most adult hymenopterans feed on liquids, although bees and a few wasps may also feed on pollen. Carrion represents an additional source of protein for some species and they will scavenge for dead animals in the wild. This paper aims at analyzing Hymenoptera visitors on a pig carcass during the process of decomposition, in the summer of 2005 and the winter of 2006 in Brazil, and comparing the results with other studies in the Neotropical region. To our knowledge, this is the first study which described the occurence of Agelaia pallipes, Polybia paulista and Scaptotrigona depilis on decomposing carcasses in southeastern Brazil. It also raises the hypothesis of possible applications of Hymenoptera to achieve more precise PMI estimations, apart from other insects already known as having great importance in such estimates.

Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

A estação arqueológica de Salamansa (ilha de São Vicente, República de Cabo Verde)

Apresentam‑se os principais resultados obtidos nas duas missões arqueológicas patrocinadas pelo Centro Português de Actividades Subaquáticas (CPAS) à ilha de São Vicente (República de Cabo Verde), em 1998 e em 2005. Em 1998, confirmou‑se o efectivo interesse arqueológico do sítio, localizado sobre o mar, em local abrigado da vasta baía de Salamansa, situada na parte setentrional da ilha, tendo‑se registado a respectiva extensão e estratigrafia e procedido à colheita de amostras para datação. Embora os resultados dessa campanha tivessem sido publicados, indicando estação de carácter habitacional, revelada pela notável acumulação de conchas, acompanhada de abundantes fragmentos de cerâmicas manuais, de produção africana, mantinha‑se indefinida a sua verdadeira natureza. Impunha‑se, assim, proceder à escavação integral da área que ainda subsistia da estação — sujeita de forma contínua a forte erosão marinha — bem como à colheita de novos materiais para datação, de forma a confirmar as conclusões preliminares anteriormente obtidas, objectivos que se concretizaram em 2005. Deste modo, foi possível concluir que, contrariando a hipótese, de início considerada, de poder corresponder a um testemunho da ocupação da ilha em época anterior à chegada dos Portugueses — hipótese que já as primeiras datas de radiocarbono contradiziam — se trata de um sítio onde uma unidade habitacional construída por muros de pedra seca, de planta ortogonal, revela inspiração europeia, aliás sublinhada pelos materiais exumados, onde estão representados produtos com tal origem, como cachimbos de caulino, vidros, faianças portuguesas, e projécteis de armas de fogo, a par de objectos oriundos do Extremo Oriente, num quadro dominado pelas produções cerâmicas africanas. Esta situação evidencia um estabelecimento cuja ocupação se centrou no século XVII, conforme indicam os materiais recolhidos e os resultados das datações obtidas, francamente aberto aos contactos de longa distância, apesar do isolamento do local escolhido. Os restos faunísticos recolhidos, com a presença deburro e de boi, sugerem um estacionamento sedentário, sendo a alimentação assegurada essencialmente pela captura de tartarugas, pela pesca e pela recolecção de moluscos marinhos (especialmente grandes lapas) e complementada pelo consumo de cabra, que poderia ser doméstica ou caçada, dado o estado selvagem a que retornou ali esta espécie. na última parte do trabalho, discutem‑se as diversas hipóteses susceptíveis de explicar esta estação — desde um entreposto comercial relacionado com a exploração agro‑pecuária da ilha de Santo Antão, passando por pequeno estabelecimento especializado de apoio à navegação, com a produção de carne salgada de tartaruga, até ter constituído refúgio relacionado com a intensa pirataria vigente à época no arquipélago, tendo presente os elementos históricos conhecidos, que, aliás, indicam que o início da ocupação permanente de São Vicente só se produziu a partir da segunda década do século XIX. Seja como for, a forte componente cultural africana revelada pelo espólio destes primeiros ocupantes da ilha expressa‑se também pelos rituais que terão envolvido o abandono do estabelecimento, com o enterramento de dois vasos emborcados sob o chão da habitação explorada, e a deposição de uma pequena taça, nas mesmas circunstâncias, junto à parede da mesma, do lado externo.

2007 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Selected Iowa Source Categories

The Department’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a refinement of previous statewide inventories. It is a bottom-up inventory of two sectors – fossil fuel combustion at federally-recognized major sources of air pollution and fossil fuel combustion and ethanol fermentation at dry mill ethanol plants. This is the first bottomup greenhouse gas inventory conducted for Iowa and the first bottom-up greenhouse gas inventory of ethanol plants in the nation that the Department is aware of. In a bottom-up inventory, facility-specific activity data is used to calculate emissions. In a top-down inventory, aggregate activity data is used to calculate emissions. For example, this bottom-up inventory calculates greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel combustion at each individual facility instead of using the total amount of fossil fuel combusted state-wide, which would be a top-down inventory method. The advantage to a bottom-up inventory is that the calculations are more accurate than a top-down inventory. However, because the two methods differ, the results from a bottom-up inventory are not directly comparable to a top-down inventory.

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Experimental support for the make-up hypothesis in nestling tawny owls (Strix aluco)

Body condition can affect coloration of traits used in sexual selection and parent-offspring communication by inducing rapid internal changes in pigment concentration or aggregation, thickness of collagen arrays, or blood flux. The recent "makeup hypothesis" proposes an alternative honesty-reinforcing mechanism, with behaviorally mediated deposition of substances on body surfaces ("cosmetics") generating covariation between body condition and coloration. In birds, the uropygial gland wax is actively spread on feathers using the bill and changes in its deposition rate may cause rapid changes in bill and plumage coloration. Using tawny owl nestlings, we tested 3 predictions of the makeup hypothesis, namely that 1) quantity of preen wax deposited accounts for variation in bill coloration, 2) an immune stimulation (induced by injection of a lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) impairs uropygial gland wax production, and 3) different intensities of immune stimulations (strong vs. weak stimulations induced by injections of either LPS or phytohemagglutinin [PHA], respectively) and high versus low food availabilities result in different bill colorations. We found that 1) preen wax reduced bill brightness, 2) a challenge with LPS impaired uropygial gland development, and 3) nestlings challenged with LPS had a brighter bill than PHA-injected nestlings, whereas diet manipulation had no significant effect. Altogether, these results suggest that a strong immune challenge may decrease preen wax deposition rate on the bill of nestling birds, at least by impairing gland wax production, which causes a change in bill coloration. Our study therefore highlights that cosmetic colors might signal short-term variation in immunological status.